Expressing medicine side effects: assessing the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm, and the provision of baseline risk information

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm formats for medicine side effects, with and without the provision of baseline risk information. Methods: A two factor, risk increase format (relative, absolute and NNH) x baseline (present/absent) between participants design was used. A sample of 268 women was given a scenario about increase in side effect risk with third generation oral contraceptives, and were required to answer written questions to assess their understanding, satisfaction, and likelihood of continuing to take the drug. Results: Provision of baseline information significantly improved risk estimates and increased satisfaction, although the estimates were still considerably higher than the actual risk. No differences between presentation formats were observed when baseline information was presented. Without baseline information, absolute risk led to the most accurate performance. Conclusion: The findings support the importance of informing people about baseline level of risk when describing risk increases. In contrast, they offer no support for using number needed to harm. Practice implications: Health professionals should provide baseline risk information when presenting information about risk increases or decreases. More research is needed before numbers needed to harm (or treat) should be given to members of the general populations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sterically controlled recognition of macromolecular sequence information by molecular tweezers

Sequence-specific binding is demonstrated between pyrene-based tweezer molecules and soluble, high molar mass copolyimides. The binding involves complementary pi - pi stacking interactions, polymer chain-folding, and hydrogen bonding and is extremely sensitive to the steric environment around the pyromellitimide binding-site. A detailed picture of the intermolecular interactions involved has been obtained through single-crystal X-ray studies of tweezer complexes with model diimides. Ring-current magnetic shielding of polyimide protons by the pyrene '' arms '' of the tweezer molecule induces large complexation shifts of the corresponding H-1 NMR resonances, enabling specific triplet sequences to be identified by their complexation shifts. Extended comonomer sequences (triplets of triplets in which the monomer residues differ only by the presence or absence of a methyl group) can be '' read '' by a mechanism which involves multiple binding of tweezer molecules to adjacent diimide residues within the copolymer chain. The adjacent-binding model for sequence recognition has been validated by two conceptually different sets of tweezer binding experiments. One approach compares sequence-recognition events for copolyimides having either restricted or unrestricted triple-triplet sequences, and the other makes use of copolymers containing both strongly binding and completely nonbinding diimide residues. In all cases the nature and relative proportions of triple-triplet sequences predicted by the adjacent-binding model are fully consistent with the observed H-1 NMR data.

Inequality, intergenerational mobility and redistributive policies under endogenous information

This paper presents a dynamic model to study how different levels of information about the root determinants of wealth (luck versus effort) can impact inequality and intergenerational mobility through societal beliefs, individual choices and redistributive policies. To my knowledge, the model presented is the first dynamicmodel in which skills are stochastic and both beliefs and voted redistribution are determined endogenously. The model is able to explain a number of empirical facts. Large empirical evidence shows that the difference in the political support for redistribution appears to reflect differences in the social perceptions regarding the determinants of individual wealth and the underlying sources of income inequality. Moreover the beliefs about the determinants of wealth impact individual choices of effort and therefore the beliefs about the determinants of wealth impact inequality and mobility both through choices of effort and redistributive policies. The model generates multiple equilibria (US versus Europe-type) which may account for the observed features not only in terms of societal beliefs and redistribution but also in terms of perceived versus real mobility and inequality.

The role of the international cocoa germplasm database and the international cocoa quarantine centre in information management and distribution of cocoa genetic resources

A range of physiological parameters (canopy light transmission, canopy shape, leaf size, flowering and flushing intensity) were measured from the International Clone Trial, typically over the course of two years. Data were collected from six locations, these being: Brazil, Ecuador, Trinidad, Venezuela, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Canopy shape varied significantly between clones, although it showed little variation between locations. Genotypic variation in leaf size was differentially affected by the growth location; such differences appeared to underlie a genotype by environment interaction in relation to canopy light transmission. Flushing data were recorded at monthly intervals over the course of a year. Within each location, a significant interaction was observed between genotype and time of year, suggesting that some genotypes respond to a greater extent than others to environmental stimuli. A similar interaction was observed for flowering data, where significant correlations were found between flowering intensity and temperature in Brazil and flowering intensity and rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire. The results demonstrate the need for local evaluation of cocoa clones and also suggest that the management practices for particular planting material may need to be fine-tuned to the location in which they are cultivated.

Consumers' attitudes, trust and willingness to pay for food information

Market failure can be corrected using different regulatory approaches ranging from high to low intervention. Recently, classic regulations have been criticized as costly and economically irrational and thus policy makers are giving more consideration to soft regulatory techniques such as information remedies. However, despite the plethora of food information conveyed by different media there appears to be a lack of studies exploring how consumers evaluate this information and how trust towards publishers influence their choices for food information. In order to fill such a gap, this study investigates questions related to topics which are more relevant to consumers, who should disseminate trustful food information, and how communication should be conveyed and segmented. Primary data were collected both through qualitative (in depth interviews and focus groups) and quantitative research (web and mail surveys). Attitudes, willingness to pay for food information and trust towards public and private sources conveying information through a new food magazine were assessed using both multivariate statistical methods and econometric analysis. The study shows that consumer attitudes towards food information topics can be summarized along three cognitive-affective dimensions: the agro-food system, enjoyment and wellness. Information related to health risks caused by nutritional disorders and food safety issues caused by bacteria and chemical substances is the most important for about 90% of respondents. Food information related to regulations and traditions is also considered important for more than two thirds of respondents, while information about food production and processing techniques, life style and food fads are considered less important by the majority of respondents. Trust towards food information disseminated by public bodies is higher than that observed for private bodies. This behavior directly affects willingness to pay (WTP) for food information provided by public and private publishers when markets are shocked by a food safety incident. WTP for consumer association (€ 1.80) and the European Food Safety Authority (€ 1.30) are higher than WTP for the independent and food industry publishers which cluster around zero euro. Furthermore, trust towards the type of publisher also plays a key role in food information market segmentation together with socio-demographic and economic variables such as gender, age, presence of children and income. These findings invite policy makers to reflect on the possibility of using information remedies conveyed using trusted sources of information to specific segments of consumers as an interesting soft alternative to the classic way of regulating modern food markets.

Turbulent structure and scaling of the inertial subrange in a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer observed by a Doppler lidar

The turbulent structure of a stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer over a 2-day period is observed with a Doppler lidar at Mace Head in Ireland. Using profiles of vertical velocity statistics, the bulk of the mixing is identified as cloud driven. This is supported by the pertinent feature of negative vertical velocity skewness in the sub-cloud layer which extends, on occasion, almost to the surface. Both coupled and decoupled turbulence characteristics are observed. The length and timescales related to the cloud-driven mixing are investigated and shown to provide additional information about the structure and the source of the mixing inside the boundary layer. They are also shown to place constraints on the length of the sampling periods used to derive products, such as the turbulent dissipation rate, from lidar measurements. For this, the maximum wavelengths that belong to the inertial subrange are studied through spectral analysis of the vertical velocity. The maximum wavelength of the inertial subrange in the cloud-driven layer scales relatively well with the corresponding layer depth during pronounced decoupled structure identified from the vertical velocity skewness. However, on many occasions, combining the analysis of the inertial subrange and vertical velocity statistics suggests higher decoupling height than expected from the skewness profiles. Our results show that investigation of the length scales related to the inertial subrange significantly complements the analysis of the vertical velocity statistics and enables a more confident interpretation of complex boundary layer structures using measurements from a Doppler lidar.

Essays on asymmetric information problems without the single-crossing property: applications to corporate finance

The objective of this dissertation is to re-examine classical issues in corporate finance, applying a new analytical tool. The single-crossing property, also called Spence-irrlees condition, is not required in the models developed here. This property has been a standard assumption in adverse selection and signaling models developed so far. The classical papers by Guesnerie and Laffont (1984) and Riley (1979) assume it. In the simplest case, for a consumer with a privately known taste, the single-crossing property states that the marginal utility of a good is monotone with respect to the taste. This assumption has an important consequence to the result of the model: the relationship between the private parameter and the quantity of the good assigned to the agent is monotone. While single crossing is a reasonable property for the utility of an ordinary consumer, this property is frequently absent in the objective function of the agents for more elaborate models. The lack of a characterization for the non-single crossing context has hindered the exploration of models that generate objective functions without this property. The first work that characterizes the optimal contract without the single-crossing property is Araújo and Moreira (2001a) and, for the competitive case, Araújo and Moreira (2001b). The main implication is that a partial separation of types may be observed. Two sets of disconnected types of agents may choose the same contract, in adverse selection problems, or signal with the same levei of signal, in signaling models.

Decision rules and information provision: monitoring versus manipulation

The paper focuses on the organization of institutions designed to resolve disputes between two parties, when some information is not veriable and decision makers may have vested preferences. It shows that the choice of how much discretional power to grant to the decision maker and who provides the information are intrinsically related. Direct involvement of the interested parties in the supply of information enhances monitoring over the decision maker, although at the cost of higher manipulation. Thus, it is desirable when the decision maker is granted high discretion. On the contrary, when the decision maker has limited discretional power, information provision is better assigned to an agent with no direct stake. The analysis helps to rationalize some organizational arrangements that are commonly observed in the context of judicial and antitrust decision-making.

Decision rules and information provision : monitoring vs manipulation

We analyze the contractual design problem of a principal who delegates decision-making and information provision. The principal faces two tasks: he has to decide the level of discretion to be granted to the decision-maker and to establish who is in charge of supplying the information. We show that these two choices are intrinsically related. When the decision-maker is granted high discretion, information provision is optimally delegated to the parties directly affected by the decision. Conversely, when the decision-maker enjoys little discretion, it is more desirable to rely on a third impartial agent. The paper helps rationalize some organizational arrangements that are commonly observed in the context of judicial and antitrust decision-making.

Theoretical Approximations Between Brazilian and Spanish Authors' Production in the Field of Knowledge Organization in the Production of Journals on Information Science in Brazil

This work identifies and analyzes literature about knowledge organization (KO), expressed in scientific journals communication of information science (IS). It performs an exploratory study on the Base de Dados Referencial de Artigos de Periodicos em Ciência da Informacio (BRAPCI, Reference Database of Journal Articles on Information Science) between the years 2000 and 2010. The descriptors relating to "knowledge organization" are used in order to recover and analyze the corresponding articles and to identify descriptors and concepts which integrate the semantic universe related to KO. Through the analysis of content, based on metrical studies, this article gathers and interprets data relating to documents and authors. Through this, it demonstrates the development of this field and its research fronts according to the observed characteristics, as well as noting the transformation indicative in the production of knowledge. The work describes the influences of the Spanish researchers on Brazilian literature in the fields of knowledge and information organization. As a result, it presents the most cited and productive authors, the theoretical currents which support them, and the most significant relationships of the Spanish-Brazilian authors network. Based on the constant key-words analysis in the cited articles, the co-existence of the French conception current and the incipient Spanish influence in Brazil is observed. Through this, it contributes to the comprehension of the thematic range relating to KO, stimulating both criticism and self-criticism, debate and knowledge creation, based on studies that have been developed and institutionalized in academic contexts in Spain and Brazil.

Physical activity and postural control in the elderly: Coupling between visual information and body sway

Background: Aging is characterized by a decline in the postural control performance, which is based on a coherent and stable coupling between sensory information and motor action. Therefore, changes in postural control in elderlies can be related to changes in this coupling. In addition, it has been observed that physical activity seems to improve postural control performance in elderlies. These improvements can be due to changes in the coupling between sensory information and motor action related to postural control. Objective: the purpose of this study was to verify the coupling between visual information and body sway in active and sedentary elderlies. Methods: Sixteen sedentary elderlies ( SE), 16 active elderlies ( AE) and 16 young adults ( YA) were asked to stand upright inside a moving room in two experimental conditions: ( 1) discrete movement and ( 2) continuous movement of the room. Results: In the continuous condition, the results showed that the coupling between the movement of the room and body sway was stronger and more stable for SE and AE compared to YA. In the discrete condition, SE showed larger body displacement compared to AE and YA. Conclusions: SE have more difficulty to discriminate and to integrate sensory information than AE and YA indicating that physical activity may improve sensory integration. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Statistics on tropical convective storms observed by radar

Convective storm rainfall is of special importance to urban hydrological studies due to its temporal and spatial variability. Although dense networks of recording rain gauges can be employed to characterize such rainfall, very few investigations of this type have been undertaken due to their prohibitive cost. This paper reports some data on characteristics of tropical convective storms obtained from radar at Bauru in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Periods of convective precipitation were identified by exclusion of those related to frontal activity with the help of synoptic maps and the radar screen record. The occurrence and evolution of convective storms were observed in two 28 km × 28 km windows obtaining information on the life history of convective cells and the magnitude of rainfall. Frequency distributions of the time of occurrence of convective rainfall, cell size, area covered, life duration and maximum and average rainfall observed in the experimental areas are presented and discussed.

Information, information management and governance

Includes bibliography

Partial reconstruction of the trajectories of a discretely observed branching diffusion with immigration and an application to inference

In this treatise we consider finite systems of branching particles where the particles move independently of each other according to d-dimensional diffusions. Particles are killed at a position dependent rate, leaving at their death position a random number of descendants according to a position dependent reproduction law. In addition particles immigrate at constant rate (one immigrant per immigration time). A process with above properties is called a branching diffusion withimmigration (BDI). In the first part we present the model in detail and discuss the properties of the BDI under our basic assumptions. In the second part we consider the problem of reconstruction of the trajectory of a BDI from discrete observations. We observe positions of the particles at discrete times; in particular we assume that we have no information about the pedigree of the particles. A natural question arises if we want to apply statistical procedures on the discrete observations: How can we find couples of particle positions which belong to the same particle? We give an easy to implement 'reconstruction scheme' which allows us to redraw or 'reconstruct' parts of the trajectory of the BDI with high accuracy. Moreover asymptotically the whole path can be reconstructed. Further we present simulations which show that our partial reconstruction rule is tractable in practice. In the third part we study how the partial reconstruction rule fits into statistical applications. As an extensive example we present a nonparametric estimator for the diffusion coefficient of a BDI where the particles move according to one-dimensional diffusions. This estimator is based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator for the diffusion coefficient of one-dimensional diffusions and it uses the partial reconstruction rule developed in the second part above. We are able to prove a rate of convergence of this estimator and finally we present simulations which show that the estimator works well even if we leave our set of assumptions.

Query rewriting in information retrieval: automatic context extraction from local user documents to improve query results

The central objective of research in Information Retrieval (IR) is to discover new techniques to retrieve relevant information in order to satisfy an Information Need. The Information Need is satisfied when relevant information can be provided to the user. In IR, relevance is a fundamental concept which has changed over time, from popular to personal, i.e., what was considered relevant before was information for the whole population, but what is considered relevant now is specific information for each user. Hence, there is a need to connect the behavior of the system to the condition of a particular person and his social context; thereby an interdisciplinary sector called Human-Centered Computing was born. For the modern search engine, the information extracted for the individual user is crucial. According to the Personalized Search (PS), two different techniques are necessary to personalize a search: contextualization (interconnected conditions that occur in an activity), and individualization (characteristics that distinguish an individual). This movement of focus to the individual's need undermines the rigid linearity of the classical model overtaken the ``berry picking'' model which explains that the terms change thanks to the informational feedback received from the search activity introducing the concept of evolution of search terms. The development of Information Foraging theory, which observed the correlations between animal foraging and human information foraging, also contributed to this transformation through attempts to optimize the cost-benefit ratio. This thesis arose from the need to satisfy human individuality when searching for information, and it develops a synergistic collaboration between the frontiers of technological innovation and the recent advances in IR. The search method developed exploits what is relevant for the user by changing radically the way in which an Information Need is expressed, because now it is expressed through the generation of the query and its own context. As a matter of fact the method was born under the pretense to improve the quality of search by rewriting the query based on the contexts automatically generated from a local knowledge base. Furthermore, the idea of optimizing each IR system has led to develop it as a middleware of interaction between the user and the IR system. Thereby the system has just two possible actions: rewriting the query, and reordering the result. Equivalent actions to the approach was described from the PS that generally exploits information derived from analysis of user behavior, while the proposed approach exploits knowledge provided by the user. The thesis went further to generate a novel method for an assessment procedure, according to the "Cranfield paradigm", in order to evaluate this type of IR systems. The results achieved are interesting considering both the effectiveness achieved and the innovative approach undertaken together with the several applications inspired using a local knowledge base.