Comparative analysis between identified injuries of victims of fall from height and other mechanisms of closed trauma

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the lesions diagnosed in victims of falls, comparing them with those diagnosed in other mechanisms of blunt trauma.METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of trauma protocol charts (prospectively collected) from 2008 to 2010, including victims of trauma over 13 years of age admitted to the emergency room. The severity of injuries was stratified by the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) and Injury Severity Score (ISS). Variables were compared between the group of victims of falls from height (Group 1) and the other victims of blunt trauma (Group 2). We used the Student t, chi-square and Fisher tests for comparison between groups, considering the value of p <0.05 as significant.RESULTS: The series comprised 4,532 cases of blunt trauma, of which 555 (12.2%) were victims of falls from height. Severe lesions (AISe"3) were observed in the extremities (17.5%), in the cephalic segment (8.4%), chest (5.5%) and the abdomen (2.9%). Victims of Group 1 had significantly higher mean age, AIS in extremities / pelvis, AIS in the thoracic segment and ISS (p <0.05). The group 1 had significantly (p <0.05) higher incidence of tracheal intubation on admission, pneumothorax, hemothorax, rib fractures, chest drainage, spinal trauma, pelvic fractures, complex pelvic fractures and fractures to the upper limbs.CONCLUSION: Victims of fall from height had greater anatomic injury severity, greater frequency and severity of lesions in the thoracic segment and extremities.

Atherosclerosis in aged mice over-expressing the reverse cholesterol transport genes

We determined whether over-expression of one of the three genes involved in reverse cholesterol transport, apolipoprotein (apo) AI, lecithin-cholesterol acyl transferase (LCAT) and cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP), or of their combinations influenced the development of diet-induced atherosclerosis. Eight genotypic groups of mice were studied (AI, LCAT, CETP, LCAT/AI, CETP/AI, LCAT/CETP, LCAT/AI/CETP, and non-transgenic) after four months on an atherogenic diet. The extent of atherosclerosis was assessed by morphometric analysis of lipid-stained areas in the aortic roots. The relative influence (R²) of genotype, sex, total cholesterol, and its main sub-fraction levels on atherosclerotic lesion size was determined by multiple linear regression analysis. Whereas apo AI (R² = 0.22, P < 0.001) and CETP (R² = 0.13, P < 0.01) expression reduced lesion size, the LCAT (R² = 0.16, P < 0.005) and LCAT/AI (R² = 0.13, P < 0.003) genotypes had the opposite effect. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the risk of developing atherosclerotic lesions greater than the 50th percentile was 4.3-fold lower for the apo AI transgenic mice than for non-transgenic mice, and was 3.0-fold lower for male than for female mice. These results show that apo AI overexpression decreased the risk of developing large atherosclerotic lesions but was not sufficient to reduce the atherogenic effect of LCAT when both transgenes were co-expressed. On the other hand, CETP expression was sufficient to eliminate the deleterious effect of LCAT and LCAT/AI overexpression. Therefore, increasing each step of the reverse cholesterol transport per se does not necessarily imply protection against atherosclerosis while CETP expression can change specific athero genic scenarios.

Socially shared metacognitive regulation during collaborative learning processes in student dyads and small groups

Traditionally metacognition has been theorised, methodologically studied and empirically tested from the standpoint mainly of individuals and their learning contexts. In this dissertation the emergence of metacognition is analysed more broadly. The aim of the dissertation was to explore socially shared metacognitive regulation (SSMR) as part of collaborative learning processes taking place in student dyads and small learning groups. The specific aims were to extend the concept of individual metacognition to SSMR, to develop methods to capture and analyse SSMR and to validate the usefulness of the concept of SSMR in two different learning contexts; in face-to-face student dyads solving mathematical word problems and also in small groups taking part in inquiry-based science learning in an asynchronous computer-supported collaborative learning (CSCL) environment. This dissertation is comprised of four studies. In Study I, the main aim was to explore if and how metacognition emerges during problem solving in student dyads and then to develop a method for analysing the social level of awareness, monitoring, and regulatory processes emerging during the problem solving. Two dyads comprised of 10-year-old students who were high-achieving especially in mathematical word problem solving and reading comprehension were involved in the study. An in-depth case analysis was conducted. Data consisted of over 16 (30–45 minutes) videotaped and transcribed face-to-face sessions. The dyads solved altogether 151 mathematical word problems of different difficulty levels in a game-format learning environment. The interaction flowchart was used in the analysis to uncover socially shared metacognition. Interviews (also stimulated recall interviews) were conducted in order to obtain further information about socially shared metacognition. The findings showed the emergence of metacognition in a collaborative learning context in a way that cannot solely be explained by individual conception. The concept of socially-shared metacognition (SSMR) was proposed. The results highlighted the emergence of socially shared metacognition specifically in problems where dyads encountered challenges. Small verbal and nonverbal signals between students also triggered the emergence of socially shared metacognition. Additionally, one dyad implemented a system whereby they shared metacognitive regulation based on their strengths in learning. Overall, the findings suggested that in order to discover patterns of socially shared metacognition, it is important to investigate metacognition over time. However, it was concluded that more research on socially shared metacognition, from larger data sets, is needed. These findings formed the basis of the second study. In Study II, the specific aim was to investigate whether socially shared metacognition can be reliably identified from a large dataset of collaborative face-to-face mathematical word problem solving sessions by student dyads. We specifically examined different difficulty levels of tasks as well as the function and focus of socially shared metacognition. Furthermore, the presence of observable metacognitive experiences at the beginning of socially shared metacognition was explored. Four dyads participated in the study. Each dyad was comprised of high-achieving 10-year-old students, ranked in the top 11% of their fourth grade peers (n=393). Dyads were from the same data set as in Study I. The dyads worked face-to-face in a computer-supported, game-format learning environment. Problem-solving processes for 251 tasks at three difficulty levels taking place during 56 (30–45 minutes) lessons were video-taped and analysed. Baseline data for this study were 14 675 turns of transcribed verbal and nonverbal behaviours observed in four study dyads. The micro-level analysis illustrated how participants moved between different channels of communication (individual and interpersonal). The unit of analysis was a set of turns, referred to as an ‘episode’. The results indicated that socially shared metacognition and its function and focus, as well as the appearance of metacognitive experiences can be defined in a reliable way from a larger data set by independent coders. A comparison of the different difficulty levels of the problems suggested that in order to trigger socially shared metacognition in small groups, the problems should be more difficult, as opposed to moderately difficult or easy. Although socially shared metacognition was found in collaborative face-to-face problem solving among high-achieving student dyads, more research is needed in different contexts. This consideration created the basis of the research on socially shared metacognition in Studies III and IV. In Study III, the aim was to expand the research on SSMR from face-to-face mathematical problem solving in student dyads to inquiry-based science learning among small groups in an asynchronous computer-supported collaborative learning (CSCL) environment. The specific aims were to investigate SSMR’s evolvement and functions in a CSCL environment and to explore how SSMR emerges at different phases of the inquiry process. Finally, individual student participation in SSMR during the process was studied. An in-depth explanatory case study of one small group of four girls aged 12 years was carried out. The girls attended a class that has an entrance examination and conducts a language-enriched curriculum. The small group solved complex science problems in an asynchronous CSCL environment, participating in research-like processes of inquiry during 22 lessons (á 45–minute). Students’ network discussion were recorded in written notes (N=640) which were used as study data. A set of notes, referred to here as a ‘thread’, was used as the unit of analysis. The inter-coder agreement was regarded as substantial. The results indicated that SSMR emerges in a small group’s asynchronous CSCL inquiry process in the science domain. Hence, the results of Study III were in line with the previous Study I and Study II and revealed that metacognition cannot be reduced to the individual level alone. The findings also confirm that SSMR should be examined as a process, since SSMR can evolve during different phases and that different SSMR threads overlapped and intertwined. Although the classification of SSMR’s functions was applicable in the context of CSCL in a small group, the dominant function was different in the asynchronous CSCL inquiry in the small group in a science activity than in mathematical word problem solving among student dyads (Study II). Further, the use of different analytical methods provided complementary findings about students’ participation in SSMR. The findings suggest that it is not enough to code just a single written note or simply to examine who has the largest number of notes in the SSMR thread but also to examine the connections between the notes. As the findings of the present study are based on an in-depth analysis of a single small group, further cases were examined in Study IV, as well as looking at the SSMR’s focus, which was also studied in a face-to-face context. In Study IV, the general aim was to investigate the emergence of SSMR with a larger data set from an asynchronous CSCL inquiry process in small student groups carrying out science activities. The specific aims were to study the emergence of SSMR in the different phases of the process, students’ participation in SSMR, and the relation of SSMR’s focus to the quality of outcomes, which was not explored in previous studies. The participants were 12-year-old students from the same class as in Study III. Five small groups consisting of four students and one of five students (N=25) were involved in the study. The small groups solved ill-defined science problems in an asynchronous CSCL environment, participating in research-like processes of inquiry over a total period of 22 hours. Written notes (N=4088) detailed the network discussions of the small groups and these constituted the study data. With these notes, SSMR threads were explored. As in Study III, the thread was used as the unit of analysis. In total, 332 notes were classified as forming 41 SSMR threads. Inter-coder agreement was assessed by three coders in the different phases of the analysis and found to be reliable. Multiple methods of analysis were used. Results showed that SSMR emerged in all the asynchronous CSCL inquiry processes in the small groups. However, the findings did not reveal any significantly changing trend in the emergence of SSMR during the process. As a main trend, the number of notes included in SSMR threads differed significantly in different phases of the process and small groups differed from each other. Although student participation was seen as highly dispersed between the students, there were differences between students and small groups. Furthermore, the findings indicated that the amount of SSMR during the process or participation structure did not explain the differences in the quality of outcomes for the groups. Rather, when SSMRs were focused on understanding and procedural matters, it was associated with achieving high quality learning outcomes. In turn, when SSMRs were focused on incidental and procedural matters, it was associated with low level learning outcomes. Hence, the findings imply that the focus of any emerging SSMR is crucial to the quality of the learning outcomes. Moreover, the findings encourage the use of multiple research methods for studying SSMR. In total, the four studies convincingly indicate that a phenomenon of socially shared metacognitive regulation also exists. This means that it was possible to define the concept of SSMR theoretically, to investigate it methodologically and to validate it empirically in two different learning contexts across dyads and small groups. In-depth micro-level case analysis in Studies I and III showed the possibility to capture and analyse in detail SSMR during the collaborative process, while in Studies II and IV, the analysis validated the emergence of SSMR in larger data sets. Hence, validation was tested both between two environments and within the same environments with further cases. As a part of this dissertation, SSMR’s detailed functions and foci were revealed. Moreover, the findings showed the important role of observable metacognitive experiences as the starting point of SSMRs. It was apparent that problems dealt with by the groups should be rather difficult if SSMR is to be made clearly visible. Further, individual students’ participation was found to differ between students and groups. The multiple research methods employed revealed supplementary findings regarding SSMR. Finally, when SSMR was focused on understanding and procedural matters, this was seen to lead to higher quality learning outcomes. Socially shared metacognition regulation should therefore be taken into consideration in students’ collaborative learning at school similarly to how an individual’s metacognition is taken into account in individual learning.

Analyse d’implantation d’un système de gestion intégrée en environnement et en santé et sécurité du travail

Les systèmes de gestion intégrée en environnement et en santé et sécurité du travail (SGI) sont un nouveau paradigme de gestion dans les organisations modernes. Ces systèmes sont construits à partir des normes ISO 14001 et d’OHSAS 18001, basées sur la prévention des risques et le principe de précaution. La littérature sur les SGI témoigne d’un marasme conceptuel prédominant depuis plus de 10 ans; elle insiste sur l’urgence d’un consensus taxinomique et conceptuel afin de définir les systèmes de gestion intégrée et de différencier le mécanisme d’intégration de celui de l’implantation. Cette lacune conceptuelle enlise les connaissances dans un fossé épistémologique, retardant ainsi le débat dans ce nouveau champ d’études. Les rares connaissances dont nous disposons dans ce domaine proviennent de quelques études théoriques et de six études empiriques, toutes préoccupées par la compatibilité des multiples systèmes et des avantages économiques de leur intégration. Les évidences engendrées par ces études sont insuffisantes pour appréhender la dynamique du nouveau paradigme dont les effets demeurent peu connus. Cette situation révèle l’urgence d’agir dans un contexte où l’utilisation des SGI se multiplie, et où leur tendance à minimiser l’importance des risques devient de plus en plus préoccupante. Aucune étude ne s’est encore penchée sur l’implantation d’un SGI en environnement et en santé et sécurité du travail construit uniquement à partir des normes ISO 14001 et d’OHSAS 18001. Cette connaissance est importante pour expliquer les effets de tels systèmes. C’est dans cette perspective que nous avons réalisé cette première étude empirique d’un SGI selon les normes ISO 14001 et d’OHSAS 18001. Nos questions de recherche portent sur le mode, le degré d’implantation, les effets du SGI, ainsi que sur les facteurs contextuels qui interviennent pour expliquer les variations dans le degré d’implantation et les effets du SGI. Il s’agit d’une recherche à prélèvement qualitatif qui repose sur un devis d’étude de cas, avec des niveaux d’analyse imbriqués, et comportant une double visée descriptive et explicative. Notre échantillon, de type raisonné, regroupait trente-cinq intervenants provenant de différentes instances hiérarchiques ; il incluait également des représentants syndicaux. Notre échantillon était composé de 7 usines, accréditées aux normes ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001, et dispersées dans différentes villes du Québec. Ces usines différaient tant par leur technologie, leur âge, leur taille, et leurs types de production. Nos données ont été recueillies en 2004; elles sont basées sur des entrevues semi dirigées, sur des observations directes lors de la visite des lieux; elles s’appuient aussi sur des consultations de documents internes et sur des outils électroniques implantés. La transcription des entrevues effectuée, le contenu des discours a été catégorisé selon les cinq dimensions du SGI: engagement, planification, mise en opération, contrôle et revue de la direction. Une condensation horizontale avait précédé l’analyse de chaque cas et l’analyse transversale des cas selon une approche à la fois inductive et déductive. Les résultats de notre recherche ont révélé deux modes d’implantation : le mode d’enrichissement et le mode de fusion. Ces modes dépendaient de la nature des structures fonctionnelles en place. La visée d’amélioration continue à la base du SGI n’avait pas réussi à concilier les approches traditionnelles bottom up et top down qui ont dominé cette implantation; son mécanisme était guidé par 4 types de stratégies : l’économie des ressources, le contrôle des forces d’influences, la stratégie des fruits faciles à cueillir et la stratégie à petits pas. Pour analyser le degré d’implantation, nous avons tenu compte de l’effort de structuration du SGI et de la force d’utilisation des processus implantés à chacune des cinq dimensions du SGI. Les résultats de notre recherche révèlent une variabilité certaine du degré d’implantation entre les usines d’une part, et entre les processus associés aux cinq dimensions du SGI d’autre part. L’analyse des discours a permis de produire cinq hypothèses qui soutiennent l’effort de structuration et la force d’utilisation du SGI: (i) l’hypothèse de la force de cohésion, (ii) l’hypothèse de la spécificité du processus, (iii) l’hypothèse de la portée du processus, (iv) l’hypothèse de la capacité organisationnelle, (v) l’hypothèse de l’acceptation du changement. L’implantation du SGI était soumise à l’influence de multiples facteurs; ils étaient de nature politique, structurelle et organisationnelle. Ces facteurs avaient agi sur le processus d’implantation en amorçant une cascade d’interactions au cours desquelles leurs forces d’influences se renforçaient, se neutralisaient ou s’additionnaient pour affecter le degré d’implantation. Les facteurs facilitant touchaient surtout l’effort de structuration ; ils incluaient : l’expérience des systèmes de gestion, l’implication de la direction, celle du syndicat ou du CSS, la structure organisationnelle, le niveau d’éducation, l’âge et la taille de l’usine. Quant aux facteurs contraignants, ils agissaient sur la force d’utilisation ; ils incluaient : la lourdeur procédurale, le manque de temps, le manque de formation, le manque de ressources, la culture organisationnelle, la structure organisationnelle, le fossé intergénérationnel, l’absence du syndicat et l’âge de l’usine. Trois effets proximaux escomptés par l’entreprise ont été observés. (i) La rigueur de la gestion était associée à l’application des exigences du SGI; elle touchait la gouvernance en environnement et en santé et sécurité du travail, les mécanismes de gestion et les procédés de production. (ii) La standardisation était reliée au mode d’implantation du SGI; elle concernait les pratiques, les outils, les méthodes de travail et l’organisation des ressources. (iii) La rupture des silos est un effet relié au mode d’implantation du SGI; elle touchait les structures départementales, les frontières professionnelles, les relations et climat de travail. Ces effets proximaux avaient provoqué plusieurs effets émergents, plus distaux: une augmentation du pouvoir de contrôle syndical, un renforcement de la légitimité des recommandations soumises par les spécialistes professionnels, la création de réseaux inter organisationnels et le transfert du savoir. L’implantation du SGI avait transformé la gouvernance et les pratiques en environnement et en santé et sécurité du travail dans les sept usines. Toutefois, elle ne semblait pas garantir l’immunité du processus de gestion des risques à l’environnement ni à la santé et sécurité du travail. Sa capacité à diluer les risques devait retenir l’attention des politiques de santé publiques et des programmes de prévention des risques à l’environnement et à la santé et sécurité du travail. L’amélioration de la gestion des risques demeurait un effet attendu non observé et soumis à des facteurs contextuels qui pourraient l’empêcher de se concrétiser. À cet égard, le transfert du savoir, renforcé par l’émergence des réseaux inter organisationnels, semblait offrir une avenue beaucoup plus prometteuse et accessible. C’est l’une des contributions de cette recherche. Elle a aussi (i) proposé une typologie des modes d’implantation et des effets du SGI (ii) préconisé une méthode détaillée d’une meilleure appréciation du degré d’implantation (iii) précisé le rôle des facteurs contextuels dans l’explication des variations du degré d’implantation et dans la production des effets, (iv) proposé des hypothèses sur la structuration et l’utilisation du SGI (v) offert une perspective plurielle et approfondie de la dynamique de l’implantation du SGI grâce à la variété de l’échantillon des répondants et des usines. Il s’agit de la première étude de terrain dans le domaine. À notre connaissance, aucune autre étude n’a eu de tels résultats. Mots Clés : ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001, gestion intégrée, environnement, santé et sécurité du travail, risques environnementaux, risques en santé et sécurité du travail, analyse d’implantation, degré d’implantation, SGI, transfert du savoir.

Le dilemme de la promotion de la santé en Amérique latine : les cas de l’Argentine et du Brésil

À partir des années 1980, la théorisation de la promotion de la santé et sa mise en place font partie de l’agenda des organisations internationales de santé et de plusieurs gouvernements. Cependant, une certaine tension est observable dans la compréhension de la promotion de la santé, et ce, dès ses débuts. En effet, elle est conçue en général selon une approche comportementale comme stratégie pour le changement de comportements individuels ou collectifs qui met l’accent sur les facteurs de risque et très peu fréquemment conçue selon une approche structurelle, incluant une action sur les déterminants structurels des sociétés responsables de l’état de santé des populations dans une mesure plus importante que les systèmes de soins. Cette recherche qualitative –étude de cas multiples- menée en Argentine et au Brésil, vise à analyser la place et la compréhension de la promotion de la santé dans les politiques nationales de santé de deux pays à travers l’analyse du processus d’élaboration des politiques publiques. Nous viserons à distinguer la promotion de la santé en tant que comportementale ou structurelle et à expliquer les raisons pour lesquelles elle est comprise de telle ou telle autre façon. Finalement, nous essayerons d’identifier les opportunités pour qu’une approche structurelle de la promotion de la santé soit adoptée dans la politique nationale de santé. Les données analysées proviennent d’entrevues semi-structurées (n=28) et de documents divers : sites gouvernementaux sur Internet, documents remis par les interviewés, documents officiels, soit gouvernementaux, soit des organismes de coopération et de financement. Notre cadre conceptuel s’est inspiré des trois modèles : celui du changement des politiques publiques de Sabatier et Jenkins-Smith (1999 ; 2009), celui des courants politiques de Kingdon (1984) et le cadre conceptuel proposé par Walt (1994) pour l’analyse du rôle des organisations internationales. Nous avons identifié deux niveaux d’analyse : l’organisation de l’État et le sous-système de santé. Nous avons aussi tenu compte de l’influence des événements externes et des organisations internationales de coopération technique et de financement. Notre démarche vise à observer, à analyser et à comprendre la façon dont ces niveaux influencent la place et la compréhension de la promotion de la santé dans la politique nationale de santé. La perspective temporelle de plus de douze années nous a permis de mener une analyse sur plusieurs années et de mieux comprendre le changement de la politique de santé à différents moments de son histoire ainsi que l’identification des acteurs et des coalitions les plus importants depuis l’origine des champs de la santé publique dans les deux pays. Les résultats de notre analyse montrent que la promotion de la santé – conçue selon une approche structurelle – ne fait pas encore partie du courant principal de la politique nationale de santé dans aucun des deux pays. Cependant, les explications diffèrent : En Argentine, on observe un sous-système de santé fragmenté avec prédominance du modèle médical ; les actions menées renforcent ce fonctionnement en ne permettant pas la discussion à propos des valeurs sous-jacentes à l’organisation du système de santé ni sur son changement en fonction des besoins de santé du pays. Au Brésil, la réforme sanitaire questionne le modèle préexistant et arrive à instaurer la santé comme droit au niveau de l’État. L’accent mis sur l’organisation des services réduit la compréhension de la promotion de la santé à une « politique nationale de promotion de la santé » qui vise le changement des comportements. L’analyse du rôle des organisations internationales montre deux situations différentes dans les deux pays : pour l’Argentine, il existe une dépendance majeure autant à l’agenda qu’au financement de ces organisations. Le manque d’un agenda national en matière de promotion de la santé fait que le pays adopte l’agenda international avec très peu des questionnements. Dans le cas du Brésil, la situation est bien différente et on observe une capacité importante à négocier avec la coopération internationale. Cela se fait aussi avec un intérêt du pays pour l’adoption de l’agenda des organisations internationales dans le but d’une reconnaissance et de sa participation à des instances internationales. Alors, pour des raisons différentes, les deux pays adoptent l’agenda international de la promotion de la santé avec une approche comportementale. À partir de notre recherche, nous considérons que cinq réflexions doivent guider l’analyse de la promotion de la santé en Amérique latine : 1) Les processus de réforme de l’État des années 1990 et ses conséquences actuelles (type de réforme, valeurs sociétales, arrangements constitutionnels) ; 2) Les processus de réforme des systèmes de santé avec un regard sur la composante de décentralisation (réforme sanitaire ou administrative ?, quel modèle prédomine dans le champ de la santé publique ?) ; 3) La revalorisation des soins primaires de santé de la fin des années 1990 (quel impact dans le pays ?) ; 4) La tendance à la réduction des propositions élargies autant des politiques que des programmes ; et 5) Les défis actuels des systèmes de santé (travailler avec d’autres secteurs pour produire de la santé, pour incorporer et pour mieux maîtriser les déterminants sociaux et structuraux de santé). Les résultats de notre analyse nous permettent d’identifier l’importance du rôle du gouvernement national par rapport au développement et à la compréhension de la promotion de la santé. De plus, cette recherche montre que même s’il existe une influence du contexte et de l’idéologie du gouvernement sur la compréhension de la promotion et l’inclusion des déterminants sociaux de santé, c’est l’organisation de l’État avec ces valeurs de base qui sera déterminante dans la création des conditions pour le développement d’une promotion de la santé structurelle. Alors que la littérature sur la promotion de la santé accorde encore très peu de place au rôle du niveau national et de l’État dans son développement, il est clair que ces derniers ont un impact fondamental sur la place de la promotion de la santé dans la politique et sur la façon de la comprendre et de la mettre en place. Les théories utilisées pour cette recherche nous ont aidée à modéliser notre cadre conceptuel et à mener une démarche d’analyse des politiques publiques. Cette démarche permet d’améliorer les connaissances sur le changement de la politique nationale de santé par rapport à la promotion de la santé en tenant compte des dynamiques gouvernementales, champ peu exploré encore. Ce cadre conceptuel, à la fois souple et rigoureux, pourrait s’avérer approprié pour mener d’autres recherches similaires portant sur la place et la compréhension de la promotion de la santé dans les politiques nationales de santé dans d’autres pays de l’Amérique latine.

Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions

This paper analyzes the measure of systemic importance ∆CoV aR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009, 2010) within the context of a similar class of risk measures used in the risk management literature. In addition, we develop a series of testing procedures, based on ∆CoV aR, to identify and rank the systemically important institutions. We stress the importance of statistical testing in interpreting the measure of systemic importance. An empirical application illustrates the testing procedures, using equity data for three European banks.

Evaluating the Small Population Paradigm for Rare Large-Bodied Woodpeckers, with Implications for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

Six large-bodied, ≥ 120 g, woodpecker species are listed as near-threatened to critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The small population paradigm assumes that these populations are likely to become extinct without an increase in numbers, but the combined influences of initial population size and demographic rates, i.e., annual adult survival and fecundity, may drive population persistence for these species. We applied a stochastic, stage-based single-population model to available demographic rates for Dryocopus and Campephilus woodpeckers. In particular, we determined the change in predicted extinction rate, i.e., proportion of simulated populations that went extinct within 100 yr, to concomitant changes in six input parameters. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the combined importance of initial population size and demographic rates for the persistence of large-bodied woodpeckers. Under a worse-case scenario, the median time to extinction was 7 yr (range: 1–32). Across the combinations of other input values, increasing initial population size by one female induced, on average, 0.4%–3.2% (range: 0%–28%) reduction in extinction rate. Increasing initial population size from 5–30 resulted in extinction rates < 0.05 under limited conditions: (1) all input values were intermediate, or (2) Allee effect present and annual adult survival ≥ 0.8. Based on our model, these species can persist as rare, as few as five females, and thus difficult-to-detect, populations provided they maintain ≥ 1.1 recruited females annually per adult female and an annual adult survival rate ≥ 0.8. Athough a demographic-based population viability analysis (PVA) is useful to predict how extinction rate changes across scenarios for life-history attributes, the next step for modeling these populations should incorporate more easily acquired data on changes in patch occupancy to make predictions about patch colonization and extinction rates.

Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing

A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multimodel mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and GISSPUCCINI)and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23Wm−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08Wm−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05Wm−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05Wm−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1Wm−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/).

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

A reduction of CETP activity, not an increase, is associated with modestly impaired postprandial lipemia and increased HDL-Cholesterol in adult asymptomatic women

Background: The relationship between CETP and postprandial hyperlipemia is still unclear. We verified the effects of varying activities of plasma CETP on postprandial lipemia and precocious atherosclerosis in asymptomatic adult women. Methods: Twenty-eight women, selected from a healthy population sample (n = 148) were classified according to three CETP levels, all statistically different: CETP deficiency (CETPd <= 4.5%, n = 8), high activity (CETPi >= 23.8, n = 6) and controls (CTL, CETP >= 4.6% and <= 23.7%, n = 14). After a 12 h fast they underwent an oral fat tolerance test (40 g of fat/m(2) of body surface area) for 8 hours. TG, TG-rich-lipoproteins (TRL), cholesterol and TRL-TG measurements (AUC, AUIC, AR, RR and late peaks) and comparisons were performed on all time points. Lipases and phospholipids transfer protein (PLTP) were determined. Correlation between carotid atherosclerosis (c-IMT) and postprandial parameters was determined. CETP TaqIB and I405V and ApoE-epsilon 3/epsilon 2/epsilon 4 polymorphisms were examined. To elucidate the regulation of increased lipemia in CETPd a multiple linear regression analysis was performed. Results: In the CETPi and CTL groups, CETP activity was respectively 9 and 5.3 higher compared to the CETPd group. Concentrations of all HDL fractions and ApoA-I were higher in the CETPd group and clearance was delayed, as demonstrated by modified lipemia parameters (AUC, AUIC, RR, AR and late peaks and meal response patterns). LPL or HL deficiencies were not observed. No genetic determinants of CETP deficiency or of postprandial lipemia were found. Correlations with c-IMT in the CETPd group indicated postprandial pro-atherogenic associations. In CETPd the regression multivariate analysis (model A) showed that CETP was largely and negatively predicted by VLDL-C lipemia (R(2) = 92%) and much less by TG, LDL-C, ApoAI, phospholipids and non-HDL-C. CETP (model B) influenced mainly the increment in ApoB-100 containing lipoproteins (R(2) = 85% negatively) and phospholipids (R(2) = 13%), at the 6(th)h point. Conclusion: The moderate CETP deficiency phenotype included a paradoxically high HDL-C and its sub fractions (as earlier described), positive associations with c-IMT, a postprandial VLDL-C increment predicting negatively CETP activity and CETP activity regulating inversely the increment in ApoB100-containing lipoproteins. We hypothesize that the enrichment of TG content in triglyceride-rich ApoB-containing lipoproteins and in TG rich remnants increases lipoproteins` competition to active lipolysis sites, reducing their catabolism and resulting on postprandial lipemia with atherogenic consequences.

Anaerobic threshold estimation by statistical modelling.

Anaerobic threshold (AT) is usually estimated as a change point problem by visual analysis of the cardiorespiratory response to incremental dynamic exercise. In this study, two phase linear (TPL) models of the linear-linear and linear-quadratic type were used for the estimation of AT. The correlation coefficient between the classical and statistical approaches was 0.88, and 0.89 after outlier exclusion. The TPL models provide a simple method for estimating AT that can be easily implemented using a digital computer for the automatic pattern recognition of AT.

Análise multivariada no monitoramento do processo de produção de óleo diesel numa refinaria de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Jamaica

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Jamaica to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Jamaica. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The outcomes from investigating the agriculture sector indicate that for the sugar-cane subsector the harvests under both the A2 and B2 scenarios decrease at first and then increase as the mid-century mark is approached. With respect to the yam subsector the results indicate that the yield of yam will increase from 17.4 to 23.1 tonnes per hectare (33%) under the A2 scenario, and 18.4 to 23.9 (30%) tonnes per hectare under the B2 scenario over the period 2011 to 2050. Similar to the forecasts for yam, the results for escallion suggest that yields will continue to increase to mid-century. Adaptation in the sugar cane sub-sector could involve replanting and irrigation that appear to generate net benefits at the three selected discount rates for the A2 scenario, but only at a discount rate of 1% for the B2 scenario. For yam and escallion, investment in irrigation will earn significant net benefits for both the A2 and B2 scenarios at the three selected rates of discount. It is recommended that if adaptation strategies are part of a package of strategies for improving efficiency and hence enhancing competitiveness, then the yields of each crop can be raised sufficiently to warrant investment in adaptation to climate change. The analysis of the health sector demonstrates the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the future health systems in Jamaica, something that that will only compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. The results clearly show that the incidence of dengue fever will increase if climate change continues unabated, with more cases projected for the A2 scenario than the B2. The models predicted a decrease in the incidence of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis with climate change, indicating that Jamaica will benefit from climate change with a reduction in the number of cases of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis. Due to the long time horizon anticipated for climate change, Jamaica should start implementing adaptation strategies focused on the health sector by promoting an enabling environment, strengthening communities, strengthening the monitoring, surveillance and response systems and integrating adaptation into development plans and actions. Small-island developing states like Jamaica must be proactive in implementing adaptation strategies, which will reduce the risk of climate change. On the global stage the country must continue to agitate for the implementation of the mitigation strategies for developed countries as outlined in the Kyoto protocol. The results regarding the tourism sector suggest that the sector is likely to incur losses due to climate change, the most significant of which is under the A2 scenario. Climatic features, such as temperature and precipitation, will affect the demand for tourism in Jamaica. By 2050 the industry is expected to lose US$ 132.2 million and 106.1 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In addition to changes in the climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects from extreme events and acidification of the ocean. The expected loss from extreme events is projected to be approximately US$ 5.48 billion (A2) and US$ 4.71 billion (B2). Even more devastating is the effect of ocean acidification on the tourism sector. The analysis shows that US$ 7.95 billion (A2) and US$ 7.04 billion is expected to be lost by mid-century. The benefit-cost analysis indicates that most of the adaptation strategies are expected to produce negative net benefits, and it is highly likely that the cost burden would have to be carried by the state. The options that generated positive ratios were: redesigning and retrofitting all relevant tourism facilities, restoring corals and educating the public and developing rescue and evacuation plans. Given the relative importance of tourism to the macroeconomy one possible option is to seek assistance from multilateral funding agencies. It is recommended that the government first undertake a detailed analysis of the vulnerability of each sector and, in particular tourism, to climate change. Further, more realistic socio-economic scenarios should be developed so as to inform future benefit-cost analysis.

Iron oxides as proxies for characterizing anisotropy in soil CO2 emission in sugarcane areas under green harvest

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparação da composição bioquímica do líquido amniótico equino colhido em diferentes estágios gestacionais e no momento do parto

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)