Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF) (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP)) there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane) concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia). We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field) are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3 times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. The source of this effect is largely due to the construction of the input ozone fields, which overestimate the true ensemble spread. Hence, while the average of multi-model fields are normally appropriate for calculating mean RF, GWP and GTP, they are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty in these fields, and in general overestimate the uncertainty.

Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes

Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, new indices are developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential for pulse (GPP_P) and sustained (GPP_S) emissions, which measure the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the effects of different emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. Hence the GPP provides an additional perspective of the relative or absolute effects of emissions. It is however recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions and this limits the usefulness of a purely global metric. The GPP_P and GPP_S formulation consists of two terms, one dependent on the surface temperature change and the other dependent on the atmospheric component of the radiative forcing. For some forcing agents, and notably for CO2, these two terms oppose each other – as the forcing and temperature perturbations have different timescales, even the sign of the absolute GPP_P and GPP_S varies with time, and the opposing terms can make values sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters. This makes the choice of CO2 as a reference gas problematic, especially for the GPP_S at time horizons less than about 60 years. In addition, few studies have presented results for the surface/atmosphere partitioning of different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantifying the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Values of the GPP_P and GPP_S for five long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon – BC) are presented, using illustrative values of required parameters. The resulting precipitation changes are given as the change at a specific time horizon (and hence they are end-point metrics) but it is noted that the GPPS can also be interpreted as the time-integrated effect of a pulse emission. Using CO2 as a references gas, the GPP_P and GPP_S for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPP_S is opposite in sign to the GTP_S. The sensitivity of these values to a number of input parameters is explored. The GPP can also be used to evaluate the contribution of different emissions to precipitation change during or after a period of emissions. As an illustration, the precipitation changes resulting from emissions in 2008 (using the GPP_P) and emissions sustained at 2008 levels (using the GPP_S) are presented. These indicate that for periods of 20 years (after the 2008 emissions) and 50 years (for sustained emissions at 2008 levels) methane is the dominant driver of positive precipitation changes due to those emissions. For sustained emissions, the sum of the effect of the five species included here does not become positive until after 50 years, by which time the global surface temperature increase exceeds 1 K.

Using metrics from complex networks to evaluate machine translation

Establishing metrics to assess machine translation (MT) systems automatically is now crucial owing to the widespread use of MT over the web. In this study we show that such evaluation can be done by modeling text as complex networks. Specifically, we extend our previous work by employing additional metrics of complex networks, whose results were used as input for machine learning methods and allowed MT texts of distinct qualities to be distinguished. Also shown is that the node-to-node mapping between source and target texts (English-Portuguese and Spanish-Portuguese pairs) can be improved by adding further hierarchical levels for the metrics out-degree, in-degree, hierarchical common degree, cluster coefficient, inter-ring degree, intra-ring degree and convergence ratio. The results presented here amount to a proof-of-principle that the possible capturing of a wider context with the hierarchical levels may be combined with machine learning methods to yield an approach for assessing the quality of MT systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bjorling problem for timelike surfaces in the Lorentz-Minkowski space

We solve the Bjorling problem for timelike surfaces in the Lorentz-Minkowski space through a split-complex representation formula obtained for this kind of surface. Our approach uses the split-complex numbers and natural split-holomorphic extensions. As applications, we show that the minimal timelike surfaces of revolution as well as minimal ruled timelike surfaces can be characterized as solutions of certain adequate Bjorling problems in the Lorentz-Minkowski space. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disciplinary Differences in Applying E-Journal Usage Metrics

This presentation was offered as part of the CUNY Library Assessment Conference, Reinventing Libraries: Reinventing Assessment, held at the City University of New York in June 2014.

Marketing Metrics : um estudo exploratório sobre a construção do conhecimento de um novo tema em marketing

Este trabalho constitui-se em um estudo acerca da construção do conhecimento do tema Marketing Metrics dentro da disciplina de marketing, centrando-se na linha de pesquisa de Valor do Cliente, uma das cinco principais que estão sendo trabalhadas sobre o tema. Assim, o autor deste trabalho realizou um estudo exploratório dividido em duas etapas, uma de análise da bibliografia acerca do Marketing Metrics em diversos centros acadêmicos e outra de verificação empresarial para analisar o grau de conhecimento e avaliação da importância do tema na visão empresarial. Ao final, o autor chega a um modelo sobre a construção de conhecimento do tema pesquisado e suposições a serem futuramente testadas, incluindo a influência de fatores como a natureza do negócio em que está inserida, o tamanho da base de clientes, a necessidade de uso do produto ou serviço, as barreiras de saída e o tamanho da empresa no grau de necessidade de relacionamento com os clientes, bem como a influência deste na busca do conhecimento acadêmico.

Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis

A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de “big data” de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

Darboux-Egoroff metrics, rational Landau-Ginzburg potentials and the Painleve VI equation

We present a class of three-dimensional integrable structures associated with the Darboux-Egoroff metric and classical Euler equations of free rotations of a rigid body. They are obtained as canonical structures of rational Landau-Ginzburg potentials and provide solutions to the Painleve VI equation.

Comparing emergy accounting with well-known sustainability metrics: The case of Southern Cone Common Market, Mercosur

The quality and the power of human activities affect the external environment in different ways that can be measured and evaluated by means of several approaches and indicators. While the scientific community has been publishing several proposals for sustainable development indicators, there is still no consensus regarding the best approach to the use of these indicators and their reliability to measure sustainability. It is important, therefore, to question the effectiveness of sustainable development indicators in an effort to continue in the search for sustainability. This paper compares the results obtained with emergy accounting with five global Sustainability Metrics (SMs) proposed in the literature to verify if metrics are communicating coherent and similar information to guide decision makers towards sustainable development. Results obtained using emergy indices are discussed with the aid of emergy ternary diagrams. Metrics are confronted with emergy results, and the degree of variability among them is analyzed using a correlation matrix created for the Mercosur nations. The contrast of results clearly shows that metrics arrive at different interpretations about the sustainability of the nations studied, but also that some metrics may be grouped and used more prudently. Mercosur is presented as a case study to highlight and explain the discrepancies and similarities among Sustainability Metrics, and to expose the extent of emergy accounting. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rindler and Minkowski particles relationship revisited

We show that the emission of a Minkowski particle by a general class of scalar sources as described by inertial observers corresponds to either the emission or the absorption of a Rindler particle as described by uniformly accelerated observers. Our results are discussed in connection with the current controversy whether uniformly accelerated detectors radiate.

Estimating crowd density with Minkowski fractal dimension

The estimation of the number of people in an area under surveillance is very important for the problem of crowd monitoring. When an area reaches an occupation level greater than the projected one, people's safety can be in danger. This paper describes a new technique for crowd density estimation based on Minkowski fractal dimension. Fractal dimension has been widely used to characterize data texture in a large number of physical and biological sciences. The results of our experiments show that fractal dimension can also be used to characterize levels of people congestion in images of crowds. The proposed technique is compared with a statistical and a spectral technique, in a test study of nearly 300 images of a specific area of the Liverpool Street Railway Station, London, UK. Results obtained in this test study are presented.