Individual and population level effects of partner notification for Chlamydia trachomatis

Partner notification (PN or contact tracing) is an important aspect of treating bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as Chlamydia trachomatis. It facilitates the identification of new infected cases that can be treated through individual case management. PN also acts indirectly by limiting onward transmission in the general population. However, the impact of PN, both at the level of individuals and the population, remains unclear. Since it is difficult to study the effects of PN empirically, mathematical and computational models are useful tools for investigating its potential as a public health intervention. To this end, we developed an individual-based modeling framework called Rstisim. It allows the implementation of different models of STI transmission with various levels of complexity and the reconstruction of the complete dynamic sexual partnership network over any time period. A key feature of this framework is that we can trace an individual's partnership history in detail and investigate the outcome of different PN strategies for C. trachomatis. For individual case management, the results suggest that notifying three or more partners from the preceding 18 months yields substantial numbers of new cases. In contrast, the successful treatment of current partners is most important for preventing re-infection of index cases and reducing further transmission of C. trachomatis at the population level. The findings of this study demonstrate the difference between individual and population level outcomes of public health interventions for STIs.

A Mathematical Model for Simplifying Representations of Objects in a Geographic Information System

The study of operations on representations of objects is well documented in the realm of spatial engineering. However, the mathematical structure and formal proof of these operational phenomena are not thoroughly explored. Other works have often focused on query-based models that seek to order classes and instances of objects in the form of semantic hierarchies or graphs. In some models, nodes of graphs represent objects and are connected by edges that represent different types of coarsening operators. This work, however, studies how the coarsening operator "simplification" can manipulate partitions of finite sets, independent from objects and their attributes. Partitions that are "simplified first have a collection of elements filtered (removed), and then the remaining partition is amalgamated (some sub-collections are unified). Simplification has many interesting mathematical properties. A finite composition of simplifications can also be accomplished with some single simplification. Also, if one partition is a simplification of the other, the simplified partition is defined to be less than the other partition according to the simp relation. This relation is shown to be a partial-order relation based on simplification. Collections of partitions can not only be proven to have a partial- order structure, but also have a lattice structure and are complete. In regard to a geographic information system (GIs), partitions related to subsets of attribute domains for objects are called views. Objects belong to different views based whether or not their attribute values lie in the underlying view domain. Given a particular view, objects with their attribute n-tuple codings contained in the view are part of the actualization set on views, and objects are labeled according to the particular subset of the view in which their coding lies. Though the scope of the work does not mainly focus on queries related directly to geographic objects, it provides verification for the existence of particular views in a system with this underlying structure. Given a finite attribute domain, one can say with mathematical certainty that different views of objects are partially ordered by simplification, and every collection of views has a greatest lower bound and least upper bound, which provides the validity for exploring queries in this regard.

Mathematical model for manoeuvrability of a riverine support patrol vessel with a pump-jet propulsion system

A study on the manoeuvrability of a riverine support patrol vessel is made to derive a mathematical model and simulate maneuvers with this ship. The vessel is mainly characterized by both its wide-beam and the unconventional propulsion system, that is, a pump-jet type azimuthal propulsion. By processing experimental data and the ship characteristics with diverse formulae to find the proper hydrodynamic coefficients and propulsion forces, a system of three differential equations is completed and tuned to carry out simulations of the turning test. The simulation is able to accept variable speed, jet angle and water depth as input parameters and its output consists of time series of the state variables and a plot of the simulated path and heading of the ship during the maneuver. Thanks to the data of full-scale trials previously performed with the studied vessel, a process of validation was made, which shows a good fit between simulated and full-scale experimental results, especially on the turning diameter

Numerical Error Prediction and its applications in CFD using tau-estimation

Nowadays, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers are widely used within the industry to model fluid flow phenomenons. Several fluid flow model equations have been employed in the last decades to simulate and predict forces acting, for example, on different aircraft configurations. Computational time and accuracy are strongly dependent on the fluid flow model equation and the spatial dimension of the problem considered. While simple models based on perfect flows, like panel methods or potential flow models can be very fast to solve, they usually suffer from a poor accuracy in order to simulate real flows (transonic, viscous). On the other hand, more complex models such as the full Navier- Stokes equations provide high fidelity predictions but at a much higher computational cost. Thus, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time has to be fixed for engineering applications. A discretisation technique widely used within the industry is the so-called Finite Volume approach on unstructured meshes. This technique spatially discretises the flow motion equations onto a set of elements which form a mesh, a discrete representation of the continuous domain. Using this approach, for a given flow model equation, the accuracy and computational time mainly depend on the distribution of nodes forming the mesh. Therefore, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time might be obtained by carefully defining the mesh. However, defining an optimal mesh for complex flows and geometries requires a very high level expertize in fluid mechanics and numerical analysis, and in most cases a simple guess of regions of the computational domain which might affect the most the accuracy is impossible. Thus, it is desirable to have an automatized remeshing tool, which is more flexible with unstructured meshes than its structured counterpart. However, adaptive methods currently in use still have an opened question: how to efficiently drive the adaptation ? Pioneering sensors based on flow features generally suffer from a lack of reliability, so in the last decade more effort has been made in developing numerical error-based sensors, like for instance the adjoint-based adaptation sensors. While very efficient at adapting meshes for a given functional output, the latter method is very expensive as it requires to solve a dual set of equations and computes the sensor on an embedded mesh. Therefore, it would be desirable to develop a more affordable numerical error estimation method. The current work aims at estimating the truncation error, which arises when discretising a partial differential equation. These are the higher order terms neglected in the construction of the numerical scheme. The truncation error provides very useful information as it is strongly related to the flow model equation and its discretisation. On one hand, it is a very reliable measure of the quality of the mesh, therefore very useful in order to drive a mesh adaptation procedure. On the other hand, it is strongly linked to the flow model equation, so that a careful estimation actually gives information on how well a given equation is solved, which may be useful in the context of _ -extrapolation or zonal modelling. The following work is organized as follows: Chap. 1 contains a short review of mesh adaptation techniques as well as numerical error prediction. In the first section, Sec. 1.1, the basic refinement strategies are reviewed and the main contribution to structured and unstructured mesh adaptation are presented. Sec. 1.2 introduces the definitions of errors encountered when solving Computational Fluid Dynamics problems and reviews the most common approaches to predict them. Chap. 2 is devoted to the mathematical formulation of truncation error estimation in the context of finite volume methodology, as well as a complete verification procedure. Several features are studied, such as the influence of grid non-uniformities, non-linearity, boundary conditions and non-converged numerical solutions. This verification part has been submitted and accepted for publication in the Journal of Computational Physics. Chap. 3 presents a mesh adaptation algorithm based on truncation error estimates and compares the results to a feature-based and an adjoint-based sensor (in collaboration with Jorge Ponsín, INTA). Two- and three-dimensional cases relevant for validation in the aeronautical industry are considered. This part has been submitted and accepted in the AIAA Journal. An extension to Reynolds Averaged Navier- Stokes equations is also included, where _ -estimation-based mesh adaptation and _ -extrapolation are applied to viscous wing profiles. The latter has been submitted in the Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Keywords: mesh adaptation, numerical error prediction, finite volume Hoy en día, la Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional (CFD) es ampliamente utilizada dentro de la industria para obtener información sobre fenómenos fluidos. La Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional considera distintas modelizaciones de las ecuaciones fluidas (Potencial, Euler, Navier-Stokes, etc) para simular y predecir las fuerzas que actúan, por ejemplo, sobre una configuración de aeronave. El tiempo de cálculo y la precisión en la solución depende en gran medida de los modelos utilizados, así como de la dimensión espacial del problema considerado. Mientras que modelos simples basados en flujos perfectos, como modelos de flujos potenciales, se pueden resolver rápidamente, por lo general aducen de una baja precisión a la hora de simular flujos reales (viscosos, transónicos, etc). Por otro lado, modelos más complejos tales como el conjunto de ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes proporcionan predicciones de alta fidelidad, a expensas de un coste computacional mucho más elevado. Por lo tanto, en términos de aplicaciones de ingeniería se debe fijar un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo. Una técnica de discretización ampliamente utilizada en la industria es el método de los Volúmenes Finitos en mallas no estructuradas. Esta técnica discretiza espacialmente las ecuaciones del movimiento del flujo sobre un conjunto de elementos que forman una malla, una representación discreta del dominio continuo. Utilizando este enfoque, para una ecuación de flujo dado, la precisión y el tiempo computacional dependen principalmente de la distribución de los nodos que forman la malla. Por consiguiente, un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo se podría obtener definiendo cuidadosamente la malla, concentrando sus elementos en aquellas zonas donde sea estrictamente necesario. Sin embargo, la definición de una malla óptima para corrientes y geometrías complejas requiere un nivel muy alto de experiencia en la mecánica de fluidos y el análisis numérico, así como un conocimiento previo de la solución. Aspecto que en la mayoría de los casos no está disponible. Por tanto, es deseable tener una herramienta que permita adaptar los elementos de malla de forma automática, acorde a la solución fluida (remallado). Esta herramienta es generalmente más flexible en mallas no estructuradas que con su homóloga estructurada. No obstante, los métodos de adaptación actualmente en uso todavía dejan una pregunta abierta: cómo conducir de manera eficiente la adaptación. Sensores pioneros basados en las características del flujo en general, adolecen de una falta de fiabilidad, por lo que en la última década se han realizado grandes esfuerzos en el desarrollo numérico de sensores basados en el error, como por ejemplo los sensores basados en el adjunto. A pesar de ser muy eficientes en la adaptación de mallas para un determinado funcional, este último método resulta muy costoso, pues requiere resolver un doble conjunto de ecuaciones: la solución y su adjunta. Por tanto, es deseable desarrollar un método numérico de estimación de error más asequible. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar el error local de truncación, que aparece cuando se discretiza una ecuación en derivadas parciales. Estos son los términos de orden superior olvidados en la construcción del esquema numérico. El error de truncación proporciona una información muy útil sobre la solución: es una medida muy fiable de la calidad de la malla, obteniendo información que permite llevar a cabo un procedimiento de adaptación de malla. Está fuertemente relacionado al modelo matemático fluido, de modo que una estimación precisa garantiza la idoneidad de dicho modelo en un campo fluido, lo que puede ser útil en el contexto de modelado zonal. Por último, permite mejorar la precisión de la solución resolviendo un nuevo sistema donde el error local actúa como término fuente (_ -extrapolación). El presenta trabajo se organiza de la siguiente manera: Cap. 1 contiene una breve reseña de las técnicas de adaptación de malla, así como de los métodos de predicción de los errores numéricos. En la primera sección, Sec. 1.1, se examinan las estrategias básicas de refinamiento y se presenta la principal contribución a la adaptación de malla estructurada y no estructurada. Sec 1.2 introduce las definiciones de los errores encontrados en la resolución de problemas de Dinámica Computacional de Fluidos y se examinan los enfoques más comunes para predecirlos. Cap. 2 está dedicado a la formulación matemática de la estimación del error de truncación en el contexto de la metodología de Volúmenes Finitos, así como a un procedimiento de verificación completo. Se estudian varias características que influyen en su estimación: la influencia de la falta de uniformidad de la malla, el efecto de las no linealidades del modelo matemático, diferentes condiciones de contorno y soluciones numéricas no convergidas. Esta parte de verificación ha sido presentada y aceptada para su publicación en el Journal of Computational Physics. Cap. 3 presenta un algoritmo de adaptación de malla basado en la estimación del error de truncación y compara los resultados con sensores de featured-based y adjointbased (en colaboración con Jorge Ponsín del INTA). Se consideran casos en dos y tres dimensiones, relevantes para la validación en la industria aeronáutica. Este trabajo ha sido presentado y aceptado en el AIAA Journal. También se incluye una extensión de estos métodos a las ecuaciones RANS (Reynolds Average Navier- Stokes), en donde adaptación de malla basada en _ y _ -extrapolación son aplicados a perfiles con viscosidad de alas. Este último trabajo se ha presentado en los Actas de la Institución de Ingenieros Mecánicos, Parte G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Palabras clave: adaptación de malla, predicción del error numérico, volúmenes finitos

On a mathematical model of tumor growth based on cancer stem cells

We consider a simple mathematical model of tumor growth based on cancer stem cells. The model consists of four hyperbolic equations of first order to describe the evolution of different subpopulations of cells: cancer stem cells, progenitor cells, differentiated cells and dead cells. A fifth equation is introduced to model the evolution of the moving boundary. The system includes non-local terms of integral type in the coefficients. Under some restrictions in the parameters we show that there exists a unique homogeneous steady state which is stable.

A simple mathematical model that describes the growth of the area and the number of total and viable cells in yeast colonies

We propose a model, based on the Gompertz equation, to describe the growth of yeasts colonies on agar medium. This model presents several advantages: (i) one equation describes the colony growth, which previously needed two separate ones (linear increase of radius and of the squared radius); (ii) a similar equation can be applied to total and viable cells, colony area or colony radius, because the number of total cells in mature colonies is proportional to their area; and (iii) its parameters estimate the cell yield, the cell concentration that triggers growth limitation and the effect of this limitation on the specific growth rate. To elaborate the model, area, total and viable cells of 600 colonies of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Debaryomyces fabryi, Zygosaccharomyces rouxii and Rhodotorula glutinis have been measured. With low inocula, viable cells showed an initial short exponential phase when colonies were not visible. This phase was shortened with higher inocula. In visible or mature colonies, cell growth displayed Gompertz-type kinetics. It was concluded that the cells growth in colonies is similar to liquid cultures only during the first hours, the rest of the time they grow, with near-zero specific growth rates, at least for 3 weeks.

Finite Element Model of the Innovation Diffusion: An Application to Photovoltaic Systems

This paper presents a Finite Element Model, which has been used for forecasting the diffusion of innovations in time and space. Unlike conventional models used in diffusion literature, the model considers the spatial heterogeneity. The implementation steps of the model are explained by applying it to the case of diffusion of photovoltaic systems in a local region in southern Germany. The applied model is based on a parabolic partial differential equation that describes the diffusion ratio of photovoltaic systems in a given region over time. The results of the application show that the Finite Element Model constitutes a powerful tool to better understand the diffusion of an innovation as a simultaneous space-time process. For future research, model limitations and possible extensions are also discussed.

Existence theorems in partial differential equations.

"Only the material on elliptic equations will appear in these notes."

Towards a Modeling Environment for Earth Systems Simulations

The developments of models in Earth Sciences, e.g. for earthquake prediction and for the simulation of mantel convection, are fare from being finalized. Therefore there is a need for a modelling environment that allows scientist to implement and test new models in an easy but flexible way. After been verified, the models should be easy to apply within its scope, typically by setting input parameters through a GUI or web services. It should be possible to link certain parameters to external data sources, such as databases and other simulation codes. Moreover, as typically large-scale meshes have to be used to achieve appropriate resolutions, the computational efficiency of the underlying numerical methods is important. Conceptional this leads to a software system with three major layers: the application layer, the mathematical layer, and the numerical algorithm layer. The latter is implemented as a C/C++ library to solve a basic, computational intensive linear problem, such as a linear partial differential equation. The mathematical layer allows the model developer to define his model and to implement high level solution algorithms (e.g. Newton-Raphson scheme, Crank-Nicholson scheme) or choose these algorithms form an algorithm library. The kernels of the model are generic, typically linear, solvers provided through the numerical algorithm layer. Finally, to provide an easy-to-use application environment, a web interface is (semi-automatically) built to edit the XML input file for the modelling code. In the talk, we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this concept in more details. We will also present the modelling environment escript which is a prototype implementation toward such a software system in Python (see www.python.org). Key components of escript are the Data class and the PDE class. Objects of the Data class allow generating, holding, accessing, and manipulating data, in such a way that the actual, in the particular context best, representation is transparent to the user. They are also the key to establish connections with external data sources. PDE class objects are describing (linear) partial differential equation objects to be solved by a numerical library. The current implementation of escript has been linked to the finite element code Finley to solve general linear partial differential equations. We will give a few simple examples which will illustrate the usage escript. Moreover, we show the usage of escript together with Finley for the modelling of interacting fault systems and for the simulation of mantel convection.

Existence and Uniqueness of Solutions for Partial Differential-Functional Equations of the First Order with Deviating Argument of the Derivative of Unknown Function

We consider the existence and uniqueness problem for partial differential-functional equations of the first order with the initial condition for which the right-hand side depends on the derivative of unknown function with deviating argument.

Solutions of Analytical Systems of Partial Differential Equations

In this paper are examined some classes of linear and non-linear analytical systems of partial differential equations. Compatibility conditions are found and if they are satisfied, the solutions are given as functional series in a neighborhood of a given point (x = 0).

Stochastic Solution of a KPP-Type Nonlinear Fractional Differential Equation

Mathematics Subject Classification: 26A33, 76M35, 82B31

An Analog of the Tricomi Problem for a Mixed Type Equation with a Partial Fractional Derivative

Mathematics Subject Classification 2010: 35M10, 35R11, 26A33, 33C05, 33E12, 33C20.

Necessary and Sufficient Condition for Oscillations of Neutral Differential Equation

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 34K15, 34C10.