A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization

Protein-energy malnutrition alters the C3 complement factor in response to lipopolysaccharide in a murine model

A desnutrição proteico-energética modifica a resistência à infecção, modificando diversos processos fisiológicos, incluindo a hematopoiese e as funções imunológicas. Neste estudo, avaliamos as concentrações séricas do fator C3 e do Sistema Complemento total (CH50) em um modelo no qual camundongos submetidos à desnutrição proteico-energética são estimulados com lipopolissacarídeo (LPS), e avaliamos a celularidade periférica, medular e esplênica. Camundongos Swiss, machos, adultos, com dois meses de idade foram submetidos ao processo de desnutrição proteica com uma dieta contendo 4% de proteína em comparação aos animais controles com uma dieta contendo 20% de proteína. Quando os animais do grupo desnutrido alcançaram aproximadamente 20% de perda de peso, em relação ao inicial, foram inoculados endovenosamente com LPS. As células do sangue, da medula óssea e do baço foram quantificadas, bem como as concentrações circulantes de C3 e CH50 em animais estimulados com LPS. Os animais desnutridos apresentaram anemia e leucopenia, além de redução significativa da celularidade da medula óssea e do baço. Os animais desnutridos apresentaram menor taxa de sobrevivência, bem como das concentrações do fator C3 do complemento e do complemento total em relação aos animais controles. Estes resultados sugerem que animais desnutridos apresentam uma resposta deficiente aos LPS. A síntese menor do complemento pode ser em parte responsável pela imunodeficiência observada. Estes resultados conduzem-nos a inferir que a desnutrição proteico-energética interfere na ativação da resposta imune

The Rg1 allele as a valuable tool for genetic transformation of the tomato 'Micro-Tom' model system

Background: The cultivar Micro-Tom (MT) is regarded as a model system for tomato genetics due to its short life cycle and miniature size. However, efforts to improve tomato genetic transformation have led to protocols dependent on the costly hormone zeatin, combined with an excessive number of steps. Results: Here we report the development of a MT near-isogenic genotype harboring the allele Rg1 (MT-Rg1), which greatly improves tomato in vitro regeneration. Regeneration was further improved in MT by including a two-day incubation of cotyledonary explants onto medium containing 0.4 mu M 1-naphthaleneacetic acid (NAA) before cytokinin treatment. Both strategies allowed the use of 5 mu M 6-benzylaminopurine (BAP), a cytokinin 100 times less expensive than zeatin. The use of MT-Rg1 and NAA pre-incubation, followed by BAP regeneration, resulted in high transformation frequencies (near 40%), in a shorter protocol with fewer steps, spanning approximately 40 days from Agrobacterium infection to transgenic plant acclimatization. Conclusions: The genetic resource and the protocol presented here represent invaluable tools for routine gene expression manipulation and high throughput functional genomics by insertional mutagenesis in tomato.

Multistable behavior above synchronization in a locally coupled Kuramoto model

A system of nearest neighbors Kuramoto-like coupled oscillators placed in a ring is studied above the critical synchronization transition. We find a richness of solutions when the coupling increases, which exists only within a solvability region (SR). We also find that the solutions possess different characteristics, depending on the section of the boundary of the SR where they appear. We study the birth of these solutions and how they evolve when the coupling strength increases, and determine the diagram of solutions in phase space.

Aging and fluctuation-dissipation ratio in a nonequilibrium q-state lattice model

A generalized version of the nonequilibrium linear Glauber model with q states in d dimensions is introduced and analyzed. The model is fully symmetric, its dynamics being invariant under all permutations of the q states. Exact expressions for the two-time autocorrelation and response functions on a d-dimensional lattice are obtained. In the stationary regime, the fluctuation-dissipation theorem holds, while in the transient the aging is observed with the fluctuation-dissipation ratio leading to the value predicted for the linear Glauber model.

EVALUATING VIBRATIONS ON A SMALL-SCALE MODEL OF A TIMBER FOOTBRIDGE

In Brazil, the study of pedestrian-induced vibration on footbridges has been undertaken since the early 1990s, for concrete and steel footbridges. However, there are no recorded studies of this kind for timber footbridges. Brazilian code ABNT NBR 7190 (1997) gives design requirements only for static loads in the case of timber footbridges, without considering the serviceability limit state from pedestrian-induced vibrations. The aim of this work is to perform a theoretical dynamic, numerical and experimental analysis on simply-supported timber footbridges, by using a small-scale model developed from a 24 m span and 2 m width timber footbridge, with two main timber beams. Span and width were scaled down (1:4) to 6 m e 0.5 in, respectively. Among the conclusions reached herein, it is emphasized that the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is suitable for calculating the vertical and lateral first natural frequencies in simply-supported timber footbridges; however, special attention should be given to the evaluation of lateral bending stiffness, as it leads to conservative values.

Parametric model for the analysis of concrete expansion due to alkali-aggregate reaction

The alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) is a chemical reaction that provokes a heterogeneous expansion of concrete and reduces important properties such as Young's modulus, leading to a reduction in the structure's useful life. In this study, a parametric model is employed to determine the spatial distribution of the concrete expansion, combining normalized factors that influence the reaction through an AAR expansion law. Optimization techniques were employed to adjust the numerical results and observations in a real structure. A three-dimensional version of the model has been implemented in a finite element commercial package (ANSYS(C)) and verified in the analysis of an accelerated mortar test. Comparisons were made between two AAR mathematical descriptions for the mechanical phenomenon, using the same methodology, and an expansion curve obtained from experiment. Some parametric studies are also presented. The numerical results compared very well with the experimental data validating the proposed method.

Contribution margin model applied to the marketing planning of a container liner carrier

The implementation of confidential contracts between a container liner carrier and its customers, because of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) 1998, demands a revision in the methodology applied in the carrier's planning of marketing and sales. The marketing and sales planning process should be more scientific and with a better use of operational research tools considering the selection of the customers under contracts, the duration of the contracts, the freight, and the container imbalances of these contracts are basic factors for the carrier's yield. This work aims to develop a decision support system based on a linear programming model to generate the business plan for a container liner carrier, maximizing the contribution margin of its freight.

Rumor Propagation Model: An Equilibrium Study

Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.

Convergence of developmental mutants into a single tomato model system: 'Micro-Tom' as an effective toolkit for plant development research

Background: The tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) plant is both an economically important food crop and an ideal dicot model to investigate various physiological phenomena not possible in Arabidopsis thaliana. Due to the great diversity of tomato cultivars used by the research community, it is often difficult to reliably compare phenotypes. The lack of tomato developmental mutants in a single genetic background prevents the stacking of mutations to facilitate analysis of double and multiple mutants, often required for elucidating developmental pathways. Results: We took advantage of the small size and rapid life cycle of the tomato cultivar Micro-Tom (MT) to create near-isogenic lines (NILs) by introgressing a suite of hormonal and photomorphogenetic mutations (altered sensitivity or endogenous levels of auxin, ethylene, abscisic acid, gibberellin, brassinosteroid, and light response) into this genetic background. To demonstrate the usefulness of this collection, we compared developmental traits between the produced NILs. All expected mutant phenotypes were expressed in the NILs. We also created NILs harboring the wild type alleles for dwarf, self-pruning and uniform fruit, which are mutations characteristic of MT. This amplified both the applications of the mutant collection presented here and of MT as a genetic model system. Conclusions: The community resource presented here is a useful toolkit for plant research, particularly for future studies in plant development, which will require the simultaneous observation of the effect of various hormones, signaling pathways and crosstalk.

Bronchus-Associated Lymphoid Tissue (BALT) and Survival in a Vaccine Mouse Model of Tularemia

Background: Francisella tularensis causes severe pulmonary disease, and nasal vaccination could be the ideal measure to effectively prevent it. Nevertheless, the efficacy of this type of vaccine is influenced by the lack of an effective mucosal adjuvant. Methodology/Principal Findings: Mice were immunized via the nasal route with lipopolysaccharide isolated from F. tularensis and neisserial recombinant PorB as an adjuvant candidate. Then, mice were challenged via the same route with the F. tularensis attenuated live vaccine strain (LVS). Mouse survival and analysis of a number of immune parameters were conducted following intranasal challenge. Vaccination induced a systemic antibody response and 70% of mice were protected from challenge as showed by their improved survival and weight regain. Lungs from mice recovering from infection presented prominent lymphoid aggregates in peribronchial and perivascular areas, consistent with the location of bronchus-associated lymphoid tissue (BALT). BALT areas contained proliferating B and T cells, germinal centers, T cell infiltrates, dendritic cells (DCs). We also observed local production of antibody generating cells and homeostatic chemokines in BALT areas. Conclusions: These data indicate that PorB might be an optimal adjuvant candidate for improving the protective effect of F. tularensis antigens. The presence of BALT induced after intranasal challenge in vaccinated mice might play a role in regulation of local immunity and long-term protection, but more work is needed to elucidate mechanisms that lead to its formation.

Intestinal Anti-Inflammatory Activity of Baccharis dracunculifolia in the Trinitrobenzenesulphonic Acid Model of Rat Colitis

Baccharis dracunculifolia DC (Asteraceae) is a Brazilian medicinal plant popularly used for its antiulcer and anti-inflammatory properties. This plant is the main botanical source of Brazilian green propolis, a natural product incorporated into food and beverages to improve health. The present study aimed to investigate the chemical profile and intestinal anti-inflammatory activity of B. dracunculifolia extract on experimental ulcerative colitis induced by trinitrobenzenosulfonic acid (TNBS). Colonic damage was evaluated macroscopically and biochemically through its evaluation of glutathione content and its myeloperoxidase (MPO) and alkaline phosphatase activities. Additional in vitro experiments were performed in order to test the antioxidant activity by inhibition of induced lipid peroxidation in the rat brain membrane. Phytochemical analysis was performed by HPLC using authentic standards. The administration of plant extract (5 and 50 mgkg(-1)) significantly attenuated the colonic damage induced by TNBS as evidenced both macroscopically and biochemically. This beneficial effect can be associated with an improvement in the colonic oxidative status, since plant extract prevented glutathione depletion, inhibited lipid peroxidation and reduced MPO activity. Caffeic acid, p-coumaric acid, aromadendrin-4-O-methyl ether, 3-prenyl-p-coumaric acid, 3,5-diprenyl-p-coumaric acid and baccharin were detected in the plant extract.

Immunomodulatory effects of recombinant BCG expressing pertussis toxin on TNF-alpha and IL-10 in a bladder cancer model

Background: Since successful treatment of superficial bladder cancer with BCG requires proper induction of Th1 immunity, we have developed a rBCG-S1PT strain that induced a stronger cellular immune response than BCG. This preclinical study was designed to compare the modulatory effects of BCG and rBCG-S1PT on bladder TNF-alpha and IL-10 expression and to evaluate antitumour activity. Methods: For Experiment I, the MB49 bladder cancer cell line was used in C57BL/6 mice. Chemical cauterization of the bladder was performed to promote intravesical tumor implantation. Mice were treated by intravesical instillation with BCG, rBCG-S1PT or PBS once a week for four weeks. After 35 days the bladders were removed and weighed. TNF-

Relatedness and HLA-DRB1 typing may discriminate the magnitude of the genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis using a household contact model

Background Tuberculosis clusters in families may be due to increased household exposure, shared genetic factors, or both. Household contact studies are useful to control exposure because socioeconomic and environmental conditions are similar to all subjects, allowing the evaluation of the contribution of relatedness to disease development. Methods In this study, the familial aggregation of tuberculosis using relatedness and a specific inherited marker (HLA-DRB1) was evaluated. Fifty families, which had at least two cases of tuberculosis diagnosed within the past 5 years, were selected from a cohort of tuberculosis carried out in Recife, Brazil. The first case diagnosed was considered to be a primary case. The secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in household contacts was estimated according to the degree of relatedness. The relative risk of having tuberculosis based on the degree of relatedness household and the population attributable fraction to relatedness were also estimated. HLA-DRB1 typing and attributable etiologic/preventive fractions were calculated among sick and healthy household contacts. Results Compared to unrelated contacts, the relative risk for tuberculosis adjusted for age was 1.38 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.21). Relatedness contributed 23% to the development of tuberculosis at the population levels. The HLA-DRB1*04 allele group (OR = 2.44; p =0.0324; etiologic fraction =0.15) was overrepresented and the DRB1*15 allele group (OR=0.48; p=0.0488; protective fraction=0.19) was underrepresented among household contacts exhibiting tuberculosis. The presence of DRB1 shared alleles between primary cases and their contacts was a risk factor for tuberculosis (p=0.0281). Conclusion This household contact model together with the utilisation of two genetic variables permitted the evaluation of genetic factors contributing towards tuberculosis development.