Simulating dynamic covariance structures for testing the adaptive behavior of variable selection algorithms (Invited Paper)

Variable selection for regression is a classical statistical problem, motivated by concerns that too large a number of covariates may bring about overfitting and unnecessarily high measurement costs. Novel difficulties arise in streaming contexts, where the correlation structure of the process may be drifting, in which case it must be constantly tracked so that selections may be revised accordingly. A particularly interesting phenomenon is that non-selected covariates become missing variables, inducing bias on subsequent decisions. This raises an intricate exploration-exploitation tradeoff, whose dependence on the covariance tracking algorithm and the choice of variable selection scheme is too complex to be dealt with analytically. We hence capitalise on the strength of simulations to explore this problem, taking the opportunity to tackle the difficult task of simulating dynamic correlation structures. © 2008 IEEE.

Relatório apresentado a S. Ex. o Sr. Ministro da Industria, Viação e Obras Públicas =Rapport présenté a Son Ex. M. le Ministre de l'Industrie, de la Voirie et des Travaux Publics /por L. Cruls. --Relatório da Comissão Exploradora do Planalto Central do Brazil = Rapport de la Commission d'Exploration du Plateau Central du Brésil

Documento com duas páginas-de-rosto, em português e francês. Título em francês : Rapport présenté a Son Ex. M. le Ministre de l'Industrie, de la Voirie et des Travaux Publics

An evaluation of pinniped-fishery interactions in California. A report to the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (PSMFC)

(PDF has 47 pages.)

The BACOMA cod-end. History and recent developments in BACOMA cod-end regulations and a proposal for abetter specification of the BACOMA cod-end for Baltic Sea cod fishery

To improve the cod stocks in the Baltic Sea, a number of regulations have recently been established by the International Baltic Sea Fisheries Commission (IBSFC) and the European Commission. According to these, fishermen are obliged to use nets with escape windows (BACOMA nets) with a mesh size of the escape window of 120 mm until end of September 2003. These nets however, retain only fish much larger than the legal minimum landing size would al-low. Due to the present stock structure only few of such large fish are however existent. As a consequence fishermen use a legal alternative net. This is a conventional trawl with a cod-end of 130 mm diamond-shaped meshes (IBSFC-rules of 1st April 2002), to be increased to 140 mm on 1st September 2003, according to the mentioned IBSFC-rule. Due legal alterations of the net by the fishermen (e.g. use of extra stiff net material) these nets have acquired extremely low selective properties, i. e. they catch very small fish and produce great amounts of discards. Due to the increase of the minimum landing size from 35 to 38 cm for cod in the Baltic, the amount of discards has even increased since the beginning of 2003. Experiments have now been carried out with the BACOMAnet on German and Swedish commercial and research vessels since arguments were brought forward that the BACOMA net was not yet sufficiently tested on commercial vessels. The results of all experiments conducted so far, are compiled and evaluated here. As a result of the Swedish, Danish and German initiative and research the European Commission reacted upon this in June 2003 and rejected the increase of the diamond-meshed non-BACOMA net from 130 mm to 140mm in September 2003. To protect the cod stocks in the Baltic Sea more effectively the use of traditional diamond meshed cod-ends with-out escape window are prohibited in community waters without derogation, becoming effective 1st of September 2003. To enable more effective and simplified control of the bottom trawl fishery in the Baltic Sea the principle of a ”One-Net-Rule“ is enforced. This is going to be the BACOMA net, with the meshes of the escape window being 110 mm for the time being. The description of the BACOMA net as given in the IBSFC-rules no.10 (revision of the 28th session, Berlin 2002) concentrates on the cod-end and the escape window but only to a less extent on the design and mesh-composition of the remaining parts of the net, such as belly and funnel and many details. Thus, the present description is not complete and leaves, according to fishermen, ample opportunity for manipulation. An initiative has been started in Germany with joint effort from scientists and the fishery to better describe the entire net and to produce a proposal for a more comprehensive description, leaving less space for manipulation. A proposal in this direction is given here and shall be seen as a starting point for a discussion and development towards an internationally uniform net, which is agreed amongst the fishery, scientists and politicians. The Baltic Sea fishery is invited to comment on this proposal, and recommendations for further improvement and specifications are welcomed. Once the design is agreed by the Baltic Fishermen Association, it shall be proposed to the IBSFC and European Commission via the Baltic Fishermen Association.

Die Ostsee-Fischereikommission setzt stärker auf biologische Vorsorge. Ergebnisse der Internationalen Ostsee-Fischereikommission (International Baltic Sea Fishery Commission - IBSFC) vom 7. bis 11. September 1998 in Warschau

Die Tagung setzte den während der vorigen Jahrestagung zu beobachtenden Kurs einer Schwerpunktverlagerung generell fort. Diese ist durch die stärkere Berücksichtigung des Vorsorgeansatzes im Fischereimanagement auf der Grundlage wissenschaftlicher Empfehlungen des ACFM (Management-Komitee für Fischerei) des ICES gekennzeichnet. Damit traten die in der Vergangenheit fischereipolitisch dominierten nationalen Managementinteressen weitestgehend in den Hintergrund und trugen somit zu einer sachlichen Tagungsatmosphäre bei. Wichtigste Tagungsthemen waren die Ausnutzung der nationalen Quoten für 1997 und 1998 (1. Halbjahr), die Festlegung der zulässigen Gesamtfangmengen (TAC) für die internationalen Fischereien 1999, aber auch Strategien zur Nutzung der lebenden Ressourcen der Ostsee unter den Bedingungen des Vorsorgeansatzes im Fischereimanagement. An den Beratungen nahmen Ländervertreter und Experten Estlands, der EU, Lettlands, Polens und der Russischen Föderation sowie Beobachter des ICES (Internationaler Rat für Meeresforschung) und der HELCOM (Helsinki-Kommission) teil.

Report on the electrophoretic and morphometric studies conducted at the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission from 1969 to 1978

Knowledge of the population structure of an exploited stock is necessary for the effective management of a fishery. For this reason the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) has sponsored numerous genetic, morphometric, and migration studies of yellowfin, Thunnus albacares, and skipjack, Katswonus pelamis, in a concerted effort to determine the structure of these stocks in the eastern Pacific Ocean. (PDF contains 171 pages.)

Report of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission for the years 1950 and 1951

ENGLISH: The Convention between the United States of America and the Republic of Costa Rica for the establishment of an Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission was signed May 31, 1949. Ratifications were exchanged on March 3, 1950, after arrival at understandings respecting the interpretation of certain provisions. The text of the Convention is appended to this report. Also appended are the enabling legislation passed by the United States Congress, giving effect to the Convention, and the Decree ratifying the Convention adopted by the Republic of Costa Rica. The most important provisions of the Convention may be summarized here, as the basis for the policy and actions of the Commission. SPANISH: La Convención entre los Estados Unidos de América y la República de Costa Rica para el establecimiento de la, Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical fué suscrita el 31 de Mayo de 1949. El cambio de ratificaciones, después de haber llegado a un entendimiento respecto de la interpretación de ciertas cláusulas, se efectuó el 3 de Marzo de 1950. El texto de la Convención se agrega a este informe. También se agrega la legislación correspondiente, emitida por el Congreso de los Estados Unidos para dar efectividad a la Convención, y el Decreto de Ratificación del Convenio promulgado por la República de Costa Rica. Los aspectos más importantes de la Convención se sintetizan aquí por constituir las bases que regulan la política y los actos de la Comisión, creada en virtud de aquélla. (PDF contains 58 pages.)

Report of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission for the year 1952

ENGLISH: The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, established by a Convention between the United States and Costa Rica, has as its purpose the collection and interpretation of information which will facilitate maintaining, at levels of maximum sustained yield, the populations of tropical tunas in the Eastern Pacific and of the bait species used in their capture. To this end, the Commission is directed by the Convention to undertake investigations of the tunas and bait species, and to make recommendations for joint action by the member governments designed to attain the objectives of the Convention. The year 1952 is the second since the initiation of the investigations of the Commission. The Commission was organized in 1950. Its program of investigations ~as outlined and work commenced during 1951. The work during 1952 has been a continuation and logical development of the research commenced the previous year. SPANISH: La Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical, establecida por una Convención entra Costa Rica y los Estados Unidos de América, tiene como deberes recolectar e interpretar la información que facilite el mantenimiento, a niveles de una contínua producción máxima, de las poblaciones de las especies tropicales de atún en el Pacífico Oriental y de los peces de carnada que se emplean para su pesca. Con este propósito la Comisión se encarga, en conformidad con los términos de la antes expresada Convención de efectuar investigaciones sobre los atunes y mencionadas especies de carnada, y de hacer recomendaciones a los Gobiernos Miembros a fin de que pueden tomar una acción conjunta que les permita obtener los resultados que el citado Convenio persigue. El año 1952 es el segundo desde la iniciación de las investigaciones de la Comisión. Esta fué organizada en 1950. Durante 1951 se preparó el programa de estudios y se comenzaron los trabajos. La tarea realizada en el año 1952 ha sido una continuación y lógico desarrollo de las investigaciones empezadas en el año anterior. (PDF contains 61 pages.)

Report of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission for the year 1953

ENGLISH: The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission was established in 1950 by a Convention between Costa Rica and the United States. The Convention provides for the subsequent adherence of other nations interested in the tuna fishery of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. Panama adhered to the Convention in September 1953. The Commission has the duties of collecting and interpreting all necessary factual information respecting the tunas and tuna-bait fishes in order to facilitate maintaining the populations thereof at levels permitting maximum sustained yields, and of making recommendations to the member governments for joint action toward this objective. The Commission commenced its investigations in 1951. The year 1953 is the third year of scientific study. During the year investigations along several lines were continued and further developed. SPANISH: La Comisión Interamericano del Atún Tropical fué establecida en 1950 en virtud de una Convención entre Costa Rica y los Estados Unidos. La Convención abre la puerta para que otras naciones interesadas en las pesquerías de atún en aguas tropicales del Pacífico Oriental, puedan adherirse posteriormente. Panamá se adhirió al Tratado en Septiembre de 1953. La Comisión tiene como deberes recolectar e interpretar todos los informes necesarios respecto de las especies de atún y de los peces de carnada que sirven para pescarlas¡ a fin de facilitar el mantenimiento de las respectivas poblaciones a niveles que permitan un rendimiento máximo permanente; y hacer recomendaciones a los gobiernos miembros para que actúen conjuntamente en pro de los indicados objetivos. Nuestro organismo comenzó sus investigaciones en 1951. El año 1953 es el tercero de estudios científicos. Durante dicho año se continuaron investigaciones en diversas líneas y se prosiguió su desarrollo. (PDF contains 87 pages.)

Report of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission for the year 1954

ENGLISH: The Governments of Costa Rica and the United States, being mutually interested in the conservation of the tropical tunas and of the bait-fishes required for capturing them, entered into a Convention in 1950 establishing the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission. The Convention provides that other governments having an interest in the tuna and tuna-bait resources may adhere to the Convention by a simple exchange of correspondence with the existing members. The Government of Panama adhered to the Convention in the fall of 1953. SPANISH: Los Gobiernos de Costa Rica y de los Estados Unidos, mutuamente interesados en la conservación de las especies tropicales de atún, así como en la de los peces que sirven de carnada para su pesca, suscribieron en 1950 una Convención por la que se estableció la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical. La Convención permite que otros gobiernos interesados en los recursos del atún y los peces-carnada puedan adherirse a la misma mediante un simple intercambio de correspondencia con los Gobiernos Miembros. El Gobierno de Panamá se adhirió a la Convención en el otoño de 1953. (PDF contains 100 pages.)

Report of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission for the year 1955

ENGLISH: This is the fifth year of investigations, by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, of the fisheries for tunas and tuna-bait fishes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean adjacent to the shores of the Americas. These investigations are being conducted by an international scientific staff, under the provisions of a Convention to which Costa Rica, Panama, and the United States are signatories. Other nations having an interest in these fisheries may adhere through exchange of correspondence with the present member governments. SPANISH: Este es el quinto año de investigaciones efectuadas por la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical sobre las pesquerías de atún y de peces de carnada usados para la captura de éste, en la zona del Pacífico Oriental adyacente a las costas de las Américas. Estas investigaciones están a cargo de un grupo internacional de científicos, de acuerdo 'con la Convención de la que son signatarias Costa Rica, Panamá y los Estados Unidos. Cualquier nación que tenga interés en estas pesquerías, puede adherirse a la Convención mediante un cambio de correspondencia con los Gobiernos Miembros. (PDF contains 95 pages.)

Report of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission for the year 1956

ENGLISH: The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission has completed its sixth full year of investigation of the fisheries for the tunas and tuna-bait fishes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean adjacent to the shores of the Americas, under a Convention to which Costa Rica, Panama, and the United States of America are signatories. Under the provisions of the Convention other nations having an interest in these fisheries may adhere, and participate on an equal basis, by exchange of correspondence with the present members. SPANISH: La Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical ha completado su sexto año en la investigación de las pesquerías de atún y de los peces de carnada para capturarlo, las cuales se desarrollan en el Océano Pacífico Oriental adyacente a las costas de las Américas. Esta investigación se efectúa de acuerdo con una Convención en la que son signatarios Costa Rica, Panamá y los Estados Unidos de América. Una de las cláusulas de la Convención abre las puertas a otras naciones que tengan interés en dichas pesquerías para que puedan adherirse a élla, y participar sobre una base de igualdad. Para la adhesión de un país basta un intercambio de correspondencia con los actuales Gobiernos Miembros. (PDF contains 112 pages.)