Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

The genetic and environmental relationship between the interpersonal sensitivity measure (IPSM) and the personality dimensions of Eysenck and Cloninger

A shortened version of the Interpersonal Sensitivity Measure (IPSM) developed to predict depression prone personalities was administered in a self-report questionnaire to a community-based sample of 3269 Australian twin pairs aged 18-28 years, along with Eysenck's EPQ and Cloninger's TPQ. The IPSM included four sub-scales: Separation Anxiety (SEP); Interpersonal Sensitivity (INT); Fragile Inner-Self (FIS); and Timidity (TIM). Univariate analysis revealed that individual differences in the IPSM sub-scale scores were best explained by additive genetic and specific environmental effects. Confirming previous research findings, familial aggregation for the EPQ and TPQ personality dimensions was entirely due to additive genetic effects. In the multivariate case, a model comprising additive genetic and specific environmental effects best explained the covariation between the latent factors for male and female twin pairs alike. The EPQ and TPQ dimensions accounted for moderate to large proportions of the genetic variance (40-76%) in the IPSM sub-scales, while most of the non-shared environment variance was unique to the IPSM sub-scales. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of reference values for glucose tolerance, insulin tolerance, and insulin sensitivity tests in clinically normal cats

Objective-To determine reference values and test variability for glucose tolerance tests (GTT), insulin tolerance tests (ITT), and insulin sensitivity tests (IST) in cats, Animals-32 clinically normal cats. Procedure-GTT, ITT, and IST were performed on consecutive days. Tolerance intervals tie, reference values) were calculated as means +/- 2.397 SD for plasma glucose and insulin concentrations, half-life of glucose (T-1/2glucose), rate constants for glucose disappearance (K-glucose and K-itt), and insulin sensitivity index (S-l). Tests were repeated after 6 weeks in 8 cats to determine test variability. Results-Reference values for T-1/2glucose, K-glucose, and fasting plasma glucose and insulin concentrations during GTT were 45 to 74 minutes, 0.93 to 1.54 %/min, 37 to 104 mg/dl, and 2.8 to 20.6 muU/ml, respectively. Mean values did not differ between the 2 tests. Coefficients of variation for T-1/2glucose, K-glucose, and fasting plasma glucose and insulin concentrations were 20, 20, 11, and 23%, respectively. Reference values for K-itt were 1.14 to 7.3%/min, and for S-l were 0.57 to 10.99 x 10(-4) min/muU/ml. Mean values did not differ between the 2 tests performed 6 weeks apart, Coefficients of variation for K-itt and S-l were 60 and 47%, respectively. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-GTT, ITT, and IST can be performed in cats, using standard protocols. Knowledge of reference values and test variability will enable researchers to better interpret test results for assessment of glucose tolerance, pancreatic beta -cell function, and insulin sensitivity in cats.

A single beta subunit M2 domain residue controls the picrotoxin sensitivity of alpha beta heteromeric glycine receptor chloride channels

This study investigated the residues responsible for the reduced picrotoxin sensitivity of the alpha beta heteromeric glycine receptor relative to the alpha homomeric receptor. By analogy with structurally related receptors, the beta subunit M2 domain residues P278 and F282 were considered the most likely candidates for mediating this effect. These residues align with G254 and T258 of the alpha subunit. The T258A, T258C and T258F mutations dramatically reduced the picrotoxin sensitivity of the alpha homomeric receptor. Furthermore, the converse F282T mutation in the beta subunit increased the picrotoxin sensitivity of the alpha beta heteromeric receptor. The P278G mutation in the beta subunit did not affect the picrotoxin sensitivity of the alpha beta heteromer. Thus, a ring of five threonines at the M2 domain depth corresponding to alpha subunit T258 is specifically required for picrotoxin sensitivity. Mutations to alpha subunit T258 also profoundly influenced the apparent glycine affinity. A substituted cysteine accessibility analysis revealed that the T258C sidechain increases its pore exposure in the channel open state. This provides further evidence for an allosteric mechanism of picrotoxin inhibition, but renders it unlikely that picrotoxin las an allosterically acting 'competitive' antagonist) binds to this residue.

Altered shoot/root Na+ distribution and bifurcating salt sensitivity in Arabidopsis by genetic disruption of the Na+ transporter AtHKTI1

Sodium (Na+) is toxic to most plants, but the molecular mechanisms of plant Na+ uptake and distribution remain largely unknown. Here we analyze Arabidopsis lines disrupted in the Na+ transporter AtHKT1. AtHKT1 is expressed in the root stele and leaf vasculature. athkt1 null plants exhibit lower root Na+ levels and are more salt resistant than wild-type in short-term root growth assays. In shoot tissues, however, athkt1 disruption produces higher Na+ levels, and athkt1 and athktl/sos3 shoots are Na+-hypersensitive in long-term growth assays. Thus wild-type AtHKT1 controls root/shoot Na+ distribution and counteracts salt stress in leaves by reducing leaf Na+ accumulation. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. on behalf of the Federation of European Biochemical Societies.

Reflections on onset-rime and phoneme sensitivity as predictors of beginning word reading

Rival claims have been made concerning the importance of rime sensitivity as a predictor of early word reading skill. Hulme et al. (2002) suggested that phoneme sensitivity is more strongly predictive of word reading ability than is onset-rime sensitivity. An examination of two independent data sets suggests that, although onset-rime sensitivity typically predicts school entrants' later word reading skill, phoneme sensitivity does predict more variation. However, multiple regression analyses do not reveal the level of phonological sensitivity that children need in order to understand alphabetic reading instruction. This issue is crucial to the detection of children at risk for reading failure and for the design of intervention programs for these children. A different analytic strategy is described for addressing this issue. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Sensitivity and specificity of pooled faecal culture and serology as flock-screening tests for detection of ovine paratuberculosis in Australia

The flock-level sensitivity of pooled faecal culture and serological testing using AGID for the detection of ovine Johne's disease-infected flocks were estimated using non-gold-standard methods. The two tests were compared in an extensive field trial in 296 flocks in New South Wales during 1998. In each flock, a sample of sheep was selected and tested for ovine Johne's disease using both the AGID and pooled faecal culture. The flock-specificity of pooled faecal culture also was estimated from results of surveillance and market-assurance testing in New South Wales. The overall flock-sensitivity of pooled faecal culture was 92% (95% CI: 82.4 and 97.4%) compared to 61% (50.5 and 70.9%) for serology (assuming that both tests were 100% specific). In low-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalence

Effect of Rosiglitazone on Insulin Sensitivity and Body Composition in Type 2 Diabetic Patients

Objective: To investigate the effects of rosiglitazone (RSG) on insulin sensitivity and regional adiposity (including intrahepatic fat) in patients with type 2 diabetes. Research Methods and Procedures: We examined the effect of RSG (8 mg/day, 2 divided doses) compared with placebo on insulin sensitivity and body composition in 33 type 2 diabetic patients. Measurements of insulin sensitivity (euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp), body fat (abdominal magnetic resonance imaging and DXA), and liver fat (magnetic resonance spectroscopy) were taken at baseline and repeated after 16 weeks of treatment. Results: There was a significant improvement in glycemic control (glycosylated hemoglobin -0.7 +/- 0.7%, p less than or equal to 0.05) and an 86% increase in insulin sensitivity in the RSG group (glucose-disposal rate change from baseline: 17.5 +/- 14.5 mumol glucose/min/kg free fat mass, P < 0.05), but no significant change in the placebo group compared with baseline. Total body weight and fat mass increased (p &LE; 0.05) with RSG (2.1 +/- 2.0 kg and 1.4 +/- 1.6 kg, respectively) with 95% of the increase in adiposity occurring in nonabdominal regions. In the abdominal region, RSG increased subcutaneous fat area by 8% (25.0 +/- 28.7 cm(2), p = 0.02), did not alter intra-abdominal fat area, and reduced intrahepatic fat levels by 45% (-6.7 +/- 9.7%, concentration relative to water). Discussion: Our data indicate that RSG greatly improves insulin sensitivity in patients with type 2 diabetes and is associated with an increase in adiposity in subcutaneous but not visceral body regions.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Exchange rate sensitivity of Australian international equity funds

This paper analyses the exchange rate exposure displayed by a sample of Australian international equity trusts (IET). Exchange rate exposure is also examined in the context of differing economic climates with particular emphasis on the Asian crisis in mid-1997. It is found that there is evidence of exchange rate exposure particularly in the context of a multiple exchange rate model. Exposure varies substantially between three alternative time periods with different exposure apparent subsequent to the Asian crisis than prior to this event.

Retinal specializations in the blue marlin: eyes designed for sensitivity to low light levels

The large eyes and well-developed visual system of billfishes suggest that vision is an important sense for the detection and interception of prey and lures. Investigations of visual abilities in these large pelagic fishes are difficult, however anatomical studies of billfish eyes and retinas allow prediction of a number of visual capabilities. From the density of ganglion cells in the blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) retina, visual acuities of less than 10 cycles per degree were derived, a surprisingly low visual resolution given the absolute size of the marlin eye. Cone photoreceptors, on the other hand, were present in high densities, resulting in a presumed summation of cones to ganglion cells at a ratio of 40:1, even in the area of best vision. The optical sensitivity of the marlin eye was high owing to the large dimensions of the cone photoreceptors. These results indicate that the marlin eye is specifically adapted to cope with the low light levels encountered during diving. Since the marlin is likely to use its vision at depth, it is suggested that this line of research could help estimate the limits of vertical distribution based on light level.