The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Excitation of Phonons in Solids and Nanostructures by Intense Laser and XUV Pulses and by Low Energy Atomic Collision

Intensive, ultrakurze Laserpulse regen Festkörper in einen Zustand an, in dem die Elektronen hohe Temperaturen erlangen, während das Gitter kalt bleibt. Die heißen Elektronen beeinflussen das sog. Laser-angeregte interatomare Potential bzw. die Potentialenergiefläche, auf der die Ionen sich bewegen. Dieses kann neben anderen ultrakurzen Prozessen zu Änderungen der Phononfrequenzen (phonon softening oder phonon hardening) führen. Viele ultrakurze strukturelle Phänomene in Festkörpern hängen bei hohen Laseranregungen von Änderungen der Phononfrequenzen bei niedrigeren Anregungen ab. Um die Laser-bedingten Änderungen des Phononenspektrums von Festkörpern beschreiben zu können, haben wir ein auf Temperatur-abhängiger Dichtefunktionaltheorie basierendes Verfahren entwickelt. Die dramatischen Änderungen nach einer Laseranregung in der Potentialenergiefläche werden durch die starke Veränderung der Zustandsdichte und der Besetzungen der Elektronen hervorgerufen. Diese Änderungen in der Zustandsdichte und den Besetzungszahlen können wir mit unserer Methode berechnen, um dann damit das Verhalten der Phononen nach einer Laseranregung zu analysieren. Auf diese Art und Weise studierten wir den Einfluss einer Anregung mit einem intensiven, ultrakurzen Laserpuls auf repräsentative Phonon Eigenmoden in Magnesium, Kupfer und Aluminium. Wir stellten dabei in manchen Gitterschwingungen entweder eine Abnahme (softening) und in anderen eine Zunahme (hardening) der Eigenfrequenz fest. Manche Moden zeigten bei Variation der Laseranregungsstärke sogar beide Verhaltensweisen. Das eine Phonon-Eigenmode ein hardening und softening zeigen kann, wird durch das Vorhandensein von van Hove Singularitäten in der elektronischen Zustandsdichte des betrachteten Materials erklärt. Für diesen Fall stellt unser Verfahren zusammen mit der Sommerfeld-Entwicklung die Eigenschaften der Festkörper Vibrationen in Verbindung mit den Laser induzierten Veränderungen in den elektronischen Besetzungen für verschiedene Phonon-eingefrorene Atomkonfigurationen. Auch die absolute Größe des softening und hardening wurde berechnet. Wir nehmen an, dass unsere Theorie Licht in die Effekte der Laseranregung von verschiedenen Materialien bringt. Außerdem studierten wir mit Hilfe von Dichtefunktionaltheorie die strukturellen Material-Eigenschaften, die durch kurze XUV Pulse induziert werden. Warme dichte Materie in Ultrakurzpuls angeregten Magnesium wurde analysiert und verglichen mit den Ergebnissen bei durch Laser Anregung bedingten Änderungen. Unter Verwendung von elektronischer-Temperatur-abhängiger Dichtefunktionaltheorie wurden die Änderungen in den Bindungseigenschaften von warmen dichten Magnesium studiert. Wir stellten dabei beide Effekte, Verstärkung und Abschwächung von Bindungen, bei jeweils verschiedenen Phonon Eigenmoden von Magnesium auf Grund von der Erzeugung von Rumpflöchern und dem Vorhandensein von heißen Elektronen fest. Die zusätzliche Erzeugung von heißen Elektronen führt zu einer Änderung der Bindungscharakteristik, die der Änderung, die durch die bereits vorhandenen Rumpflöcher hervorgerufen wurde, entgegen wirkt. Die thermischen Eigenschaften von Nanostrukturen sind teilweise sehr wichtig für elektronische Bauteile. Wir studierten hier ebenfalls den Effekt einer einzelnen Graphen Lage auf Kupfer. Dazu untersuchten wir mit Dichtefunktionaltheorie die strukturellen- und Schwingungseigenschaften von Graphen auf einem Kupfer Substrat. Wir zeigen, dass die schwache Wechselwirkung zwischen Graphen und Kupfer die Frequenz der aus der Ebene gerichteten akustischen Phonon Eigenmode anhebt und die Entartung zwischen den aus der Ebene gerichteten akustischen und optischen Phononen im K-Punkt des Graphen Spektrums aufhebt. Zusätzlich führten wir ab initio Berechnungen zur inelastischen Streuung eines Helium Atoms mit Graphen auf einem Kuper(111) Substrat durch. Wir berechneten dazu das Leistungsspektrum, das uns eine Idee über die verschiedenen Gitterschwingungen des Graphene-Kuper(111) Systems gibt, die durch die Kollision des Helium Atom angeregt werden. Wir brachten die Positionen der Peaks im Leistungsspektrum mit den Phonon Eigenfrequenzen, die wir aus den statischen Rechnungen erhalten haben, in Beziehung. Unsere Ergebnisse werden auch verglichen mit den Ergebnissen experimenteller Daten zur Helium Streuung an Graphen-Kupfer(111) Oberflächen.

An exploratory assessment of the potential impact of the free trade area of the americas on the andean community

A través de una simulación llevada a cabo con GTAP, este documento presenta una evaluación preliminar del impacto potencial que el Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas tendría sobre la Comunidad Andina de Naciones. Mantenido por la Universidad de Purdue, el GTAP es un modelo multiregional de equilibrio general, ampliamente usado para el análisis de temas de economía internacional. El experimento llevado a cabo tiene lugar en un ambiente de competencia perfecta y rendimientos constantes a escala y consiste en la completa eliminación de aranceles a las importaciones de bienes entre los países del Hemisferio Occidental. Los resultados muestran la presencia de modestas pero positivas ganancias netas de bienestar para la Comunidad Andina, generadas fundamentalmente por mejoras en la asignación de recursos. Movimientos desfavorables en los términos de intercambio y el efecto de la desviación de comercio con respecto a terceros países, reducen considerablemente las ganancias potenciales de bienestar. De la misma forma, la existencia de distorsiones económicas al interior de la Comunidad Andina tiene un efecto negativo sobre el bienestar. El patrón de comercio aumenta su grado de concentración en el comercio bilateral con los Estados Unidos y la remuneración real a los factores productivos presenta mejoras con la implementación de la zona de libre comercio.

The hardness profile as a tool to detect spurious stationary points in the potential energy surface

The energy and hardness profile for a series of inter and intramolecular conformational changes at several levels of calculation were computed. The hardness profiles were found to be calculated as the difference between the vertical ionization potential and electron affinity. The hardness profile shows the correct number of stationary points independently of the basis set and methodology used. It was found that the hardness profiles can be used to check the reliability of the energy profiles for those chemical system

Cannabis sativa and the endogenous cannabinoid system: therapeutic potential for appetite regulation

The herb Cannabis sativa (C. sativa) has been used in China and on the Indian subcontinent for thousands of years as a medicine. However, since it was brought to the UK and then the rest of the western world in the late 19th century, its use has been a source of controversy. Indeed, its psychotropic side effects are well reported but only relatively recently has scientific endeavour begun to find valuable uses for either the whole plant or its individual components. Here, we discuss evidence describing the endocannabinoid system, its endogenous and exogenous ligands and their varied effects on feeding cycles and meal patterns. Furthermore we also critically consider the mounting evidence which suggests non‐tetrahydrocannabinol phytocannabinoids play a vital role in C. sativa‐induced feeding pattern changes. Indeed, given the wide range of phytocannabinoids present in C. sativa and their equally wide range of intra‐, inter‐ and extra‐cellular mechanisms of action, we demonstrate that non‐Δ9tetrahydrocannabinol phytocannabinoids retain an important and, as yet, untapped clinical potential.

The management of positive inter-store externalities in shopping centres: some empirical evidence

In enclosed shopping centres, stores benefit from the positive externalities of other stores in the centre. Some stores provide greater benefits to their neighbours than others – for example anchor tenants and brand leading stores. In managing shopping centres, these positive externalities might be captured through rental variations. This paper explores the determinants of rent – including externalities – for UK regional shopping centres. Two linked databases were utilised in the research. One contains characteristics of 148 shopping centres; the other has some 1,930 individual tenant records including rent level. These data were analysed to provide information on the characteristics of centres and retailers that help determine rent. Factors influencing tenant rents include market potential factors derived from urban and regional economic theory and shopping centre characteristics identified in prior retail research. The model also includes variables that proxy for the interaction between tenants and the impact of positive in-centre externalities. We find that store size is significantly and negatively related to tenant with both anchor and other larger tenants, perhaps as a result of the positive effects generated by their presence, paying relatively lower rents while smaller stores, benefiting from the generation of demand, pay relatively higher rents. Brand leader tenants pay lower rents than other tenants within individual retail categories.

Pharmacometabonomic characterization of xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic phenotypes that account for inter-individual variation in isoniazid-induced toxicological response

An NMR-based pharmacometabonomic approach was applied to investigate inter-animal variation in response to isoniazid (INH; 200 and 400 mg/kg) in male Sprague-Dawley rats, alongside complementary clinical chemistry and histopathological analysis. Marked inter-animal variability in central nervous system (CNS) toxicity was identified following administration of a high dose of INH, which enabled characterization of CNS responders and CNS non-responders. High-resolution post-dose urinary (1)H NMR spectra were modeled both by their xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic information sets, enabling simultaneous identification of the differential metabolic fate of INH and its associated endogenous metabolic consequences in CNS responders and CNS non-responders. A characteristic xenobiotic metabolic profile was observed for CNS responders, which revealed higher urinary levels of pyruvate isonicotinylhydrazone and β-glucosyl isonicotinylhydrazide and lower levels of acetylisoniazid compared to CNS non-responders. This suggested that the capacity for acetylation of INH was lower in CNS responders, leading to increased metabolism via conjugation with pyruvate and glucose. In addition, the endogenous metabolic profile of CNS responders revealed higher urinary levels of lactate and glucose, in comparison to CNS non-responders. Pharmacometabonomic analysis of the pre-dose (1)H NMR urinary spectra identified a metabolic signature that correlated with the development of INH-induced adverse CNS effects and may represent a means of predicting adverse events and acetylation capacity when challenged with high dose INH. Given the widespread use of INH for the treatment of tuberculosis, this pharmacometabonomic screening approach may have translational potential for patient stratification to minimize adverse events.

Characterization and antimicrobial efficacy against E. coli of a helium/air plasma at atmospheric pressure created in a plastic package

A plasma source, sustained by the application of a floating high voltage (±15 kV) to parallel-plate electrodes at 50 Hz, has been achieved in a helium/air mixture at atmospheric pressure (P = 105 Pa) contained in a zip-locked plastic package placed in the electrode gap. Some of the physical and antimicrobial properties of this apparatus were established with a view to ascertain its performance as a prototype for the disinfection of fresh produce. The current–voltage (I–V) and charge–voltage (Q–V) characteristics of the system were measured as a function of gap distance d, in the range (3 × 103 ≤ Pd ≤ 1.0 × 104 Pa m). The electrical measurements showed this plasma source to exhibit the characteristic behaviour of a dielectric barrier discharge in the filamentary mode and its properties could be accurately interpreted by the two-capacitance in series model. The power consumed by the discharge and the reduced field strength were found to decrease quadratically from 12.0 W to 4.5 W and linearly from 140 Td to 50 Td, respectively, in the range studied. Emission spectra of the discharge were recorded on a relative intensity scale and the dominant spectral features could be assigned to strong vibrational bands in the 2+ and 1− systems of N2 and ${\rm N}_2^+$ , respectively, with other weak signatures from the NO and OH radicals and the N+, He and O atomic species. Absolute spectral intensities were also recorded and interpreted by comparison with the non-equilibrium synthetic spectra generated by the computer code SPECAIR. At an inter-electrode gap of 0.04 m, this comparison yielded typical values for the electron, vibrational and translational (gas) temperatures of (4980 ± 100) K, (2700 ± 200) K and (300 ± 100) K, respectively and an electron density of 1.0 × 1017 m−3. A Boltzmann plot also provided a value of (3200 ± 200 K) for the vibrational temperature. The antimicrobial efficacy was assessed by studying the resistance of both Escherichia coli K12 its isogenic mutants in soxR, soxS, oxyR, rpoS and dnaK selected to identify possible cellular responses and targets related with 5 min exposure to the active gas in proximity of, but not directly in, the path of the discharge filaments. Both the parent strain and mutants populations were significantly reduced by more than 1.5 log cycles in these conditions, showing the potential of the system. Post-treatment storage studies showed that some transcription regulators and specific genes related to oxidative stress play an important role in the E. coli repair mechanism and that plasma exposure affects specific cell regulator systems.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

An eight-parent multiparent advanced generation inter-cross population for winter-sown wheat: creation, properties, and validation

MAGIC populations represent one of a new generation of crop genetic mapping resources combining high genetic recombination and diversity. We describe the creation and validation of an eight-parent MAGIC population consisting of 1091 F7 lines of winter-sown wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Analyses based on genotypes from a 90,000-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array find the population to be well-suited as a platform for fine-mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) and gene isolation. Patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) show the population to be highly recombined; genetic marker diversity among the founders was 74% of that captured in a larger set of 64 wheat varieties, and 54% of SNPs segregating among the 64 lines also segregated among the eight founder lines. In contrast, a commonly used reference bi-parental population had only 54% of the diversity of the 64 varieties with 27% of SNPs segregating. We demonstrate the potential of this MAGIC resource by identifying a highly diagnostic marker for the morphological character "awn presence/absence" and independently validate it in an association-mapping panel. These analyses show this large, diverse, and highly recombined MAGIC population to be a powerful resource for the genetic dissection of target traits in wheat, and it is well-placed to efficiently exploit ongoing advances in phenomics and genomics. Genetic marker and trait data, together with instructions for access to seed, are available at http://www.niab.com/MAGIC/.

CASPT2 Study of the Potential Energy Surface of the HSO(2) System

The importance of the HSO(2) system in atmospheric and combustion chemistry has motivated several works dedicated to the study of associated structures and chemical reactions. Nevertheless controversy still exists in connection with the reaction SH + O(2) -> H + SO(2) and also related to the role of the HSOO isomers in the potential energy surface (PES). Here we report high-level ab initio calculation for the electronic ground state of the HSO(2) system. Energetic, geometric, and frequency properties for the major stationary states of the PES are reported at the same level of calculations:,CASPT2/aug-cc-pV(T+d)Z. This study introduces three new stationary points (two saddle points and one minimum). These structures allow the connection of the skewed HSOOs and the HSO(2) minima defining new reaction paths for SH + O(2) -> H + SO(2) and SH + O(2) -> OH + SO. In addition, the location of the HSOO isomers in the reaction pathways have been clarified.

Xyloglucan nano-aggregates: Physico-chemical characterisation in buffer solution and potential application as a carrier for camptothecin, an anti-cancer drug

In this work, native xyloglucan was extracted from Tamarindus indica seeds (XGT), and its properties in phosphate buffer solution (PBS) were evaluated in comparison with a commercial tamarind kernel powder (TKP). The physico-chemical characteristics of the polysaccharides such as molar mass, critical concentration and intrinsic viscosity were determined. Furthermore, using spectroscopic and microscopy techniques, it was observed that the XGs tested can be considered macromolecules able to aggregate as nano-entities of 60-140 nm. The XGT tended to an ordered and compact spherical conformation determined by the Huggins constant, circular dichroism, atomic force microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. After the determination of the properties in PBS the XGs, at concentrations of 25% above their critical aggregation concentration, were used to encapsulate camptothecin, an anti-cancer drug. The XGT sample showed an encapsulation efficiency of 42% and first-order drug delivery kinetics. These results demonstrated the importance of knowledge of the physico-chemical properties of polysaccharides, for example, to better conduct their biotechnological applications as drug carriers. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring new molecular species on the (1)[H, Se, F] singlet potential energy surface: Energetics, structures, IR spectra, and heats of formation

Structural, energetic, and vibrational properties of new molecular species, HSeF and HFSe, the associated transition state, and dissociation fragments are investigated using a state-of-the-art theoretical approach, CCSD(T)/CBS. HSeF is a normal covalently bonded molecule 38.98 kcal mol (1) more stable than the complex HF-Se, which shows an unusual structure with a central fluorine atom and a bond angle of 101.8 degrees.A barrier (Delta G(#)) of 49.01 kcal mol (1) separates the two species. Vibrational frequencies are also quite distinct. Heats of formation are evaluated for the diatomic fragments and HSeF. Final Delta(f)H values depend on the experimental accuracy of those of Se(g) and H(2)Se. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Peat as a natural solid-phase for copper preconcentration and determination in a multicommuted flow system coupled to flame atomic absorption spectrometry

The physical and chemical characteristics of peat were assessed through measurement of pH, percentage of organic matter, cationic exchange capacity (CEC), elemental analysis, infrared spectroscopy and quantitative analysis of metals by ICP OES. Despite the material showed to be very acid in view of the percentage of organic matter, its CEC was significant, showing potential for retention of metal ions. This characteristic was exploited by coupling a peat mini-column to a flow system based on the multicommutation approach for the in-line copper concentration prior to flame atomic absorption spectrometric determination. Cu(II) ions were adsorbed at pH 4.5 and eluted with 0.50 mol L(-1) HNO(3). The influence of chemical and hydrodynamic parameters, such as sample pH, buffer concentration, eluent type and concentration, sample flow-rate and preconcentration time were investigated. Under the optimized conditions, a linear response was observed between 16 and 100 mu g L(-1), with a detection limit estimated as 3 mu g L(-1) at the 99.7% confidence level and an enrichment factor of 16. The relative standard deviation was estimated as 3.3% (n = 20). The mini-column was used for at least 100 sampling cycles without significant variation in the analytical response. Recoveries from copper spiked to lake water or groundwater as well as concentrates used in hemodialysis were in the 97.3-111 % range. The results obtained for copper determination in these samples agreed with those achieved by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS) at the 95% confidence level. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting new molecular species of potential interest to atmospheric chemistry: The isomers HSI and HIS

Structural, vibrational, and energetic properties of new molecular species, HSI and HIS are investigated for the first time using a state-of-the-art theoretical approach. These molecules can be easily differentiated by their geometric parameters and vibrational spectra. HSI is much more stable, and a direct unimolecular isomerization is very unlikely. Kinetics estimates predict that only at low temperatures there is a possibility of isolating HIS. For HS-I, we estimate a bond dissociation energy of 46.25 kcal/mol, and a heat of formation at 298.15 K of 12.84 kcal/mol. For the H(2)S + I(2) -> HSI + HI reaction enthalpy, we found 8.40 kcal/ mol. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.