Tributação de energia elétrica e bem-estar social: uma análise regional

Os reflexos da tributação sobre o setor elétrico ultrapassam as questões meramente arrecadatórias de estados, municípios e União, envolvem toda a produção do país e o bem-estar de sua população. Neste contexto, e com o intuito de trazer as questões de eficiência e redistributividade ao ambiente de tributação de energia elétrica, o presente trabalho pretende apresentar um panorama da tributação atual do consumo residencial de energia elétrica, principalmente em relação ao ICMS, juntamente com um cálculo simplificado de alíquotas considerando dois modelos de tributação ótima, estabelecidos por F. R. Ramsey e Diamond e Mirrlees, a partir dos quais é possível realizar comparações em relação ao modelo atual e sintetizar uma visão nacional de uma tributação realizada em sua maior parte regionalmente. O primeiro modelo considera apenas eficiência na definição das alíquotas aplicadas aos produtos, partindo da premissa de que todos os consumidores são idênticos e não há preocupações com equidade. As elasticidades necessárias para aplicação do critério de Ramsey são estimadas a partir de dados em painel das 64 distribuidoras de energia elétrica do país, utilizando um modelo em dois estágios com variável instrumental. O segundo modelo, proposto por Diamond e Mirrlees, incorpora a equidade na modelagem, introduzindo a diferenciação entre os indivíduos.

Instrumento de avaliação de fala para análise acústica (IAFAC) baseado em critérios linguísticos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Health and Growth: Causality through Education

Purpose--The paper theoretically and empirically investigates the impact on human capital investment decisions and income growth of lowered life expectancy as a result of HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Design/methodology/approach--The theoretical model is a three-period overlapping generations model where individuals go through three stages in their life, namely, young, adult and old. The model extends existing theoretical models by allowing the probability of premature death to differ for individuals at different life stage, and by allowing for stochastic technological advances. The empirical investigation focuses on the effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and on the role of health on educational investments and growth. We address potential endogeneity by using various strategies, such as controlling for country specific time-invariant unobservables and by using the male circumcision rate as an instrumental variable for HIV/AIDS prevalence. Findings--We show theoretically that an increased probability of premature death leads to less investment in human capital, and consequently slower growth. Empirically we show that HIV/AIDS has resulted in a substantial decline in life expectancy in African countries and these falling life expectancies are indeed associated with lower educational attainment and slower economic growth world wide. Originality/value--The theoretical and empirical findings reveal a causal link flowing from health to growth, which has been largely overlooked by the existing literature. The main implication is that health investments, that decrease the incidence of diseases like HIV/AIDS resulting on increases in life expectancy, through its complementarity with human capital investments lead to long run growth..

Gold and the Stock Market: 3 Essays on Gold Investments

This thesis gives an overview of the history of gold per se, of gold as an investment good and offers some institutional details about gold and other precious metal markets. The goal of this study is to investigate the role of gold as a store of value and hedge against negative market movements in turbulent times. I investigate gold’s ability to act as a safe haven during periods of financial stress by employing instrumental variable techniques that allow for time varying conditional covariance. I find broad evidence supporting the view that gold acts as an anchor of stability during market downturns. During periods of high uncertainty and low stock market returns, gold tends to have higher than average excess returns. The effectiveness of gold as a safe haven is enhanced during periods of extreme crises: the largest peaks are observed during the global financial crises of 2007-2009 and, in particular, during the Lehman default (October 2008). A further goal of this thesis is to investigate whether gold provides protection from tail risk. I address the issue of asymmetric precious metal behavior conditioned to stock market performance and provide empirical evidence about the contribution of gold to a portfolio’s systematic skewness and kurtosis. I find that gold has positive coskewness with the market portfolio when the market is skewed to the left. Moreover, gold shows low cokurtosis with the market returns during volatile periods. I therefore show that gold is a desirable investment good to risk averse investors, since it tends to decrease the probability of experiencing extreme bad outcomes, and the magnitude of losses in case such events occur. Gold thus bears very important and under-researched characteristics as an asset class per se, which this thesis contributed to address and unveil.

Understanding Recent Developments in the Turkish Labor Market: Empirical Essays with a Gender Focus

This dissertation comprises three essays on the Turkish labor market. The first essay characterizes the distinctive characteristics of the Turkish labor market with the aim of understanding the factors lying behind its long-standing poor performance relative to its European counterparts. The analysis is based on a cross-country comparison among selected European Union countries. Among all the indicators of labor market flexibility, non-wage cost rigidities are regarded as one of the most important factors in slowing down employment creation in Turkey. The second essay focuses on an employment subsidy policy which introduces a reduction in non-wage costs through social security premium incentives granted to women and young men. Exploiting a difference-in-difference-in differences strategy, I evaluate the effectiveness of this policy in creating employment for the target group. The results, net of the recent crisis effect, suggest that the policy accounts for a 1.4% to 1.6% increase in the probability of being hired for women aged 30 to 34 above men of the same age group in the periods shortly after the announcement of the policy. In the third essay of the dissertation, I analyze the labor supply response of married women to their husbands' job losses (AWE). I empirically test the hypothesis of added worker effect for the global economic crisis of 2008 by relying on the Turkey context. Identification is achieved by exploiting the exogenous variation in the output of male-dominated sectors hard-hit by the crisis and the gender-segmentation that characterizes the Turkish labor market. Findings based on the instrumental variable approach suggest that the added worker effect explains up to 64% of the observed increase in female labor force participation in Turkey. The size of the effect depends on how long it takes for wives to adjust their labor supply to their husbands' job losses.

Essays in policy evaluation

This dissertation consists of three empirical studies that aim at providing new evidence in the field of public policy evaluation. In particular, the first two chapters focus on the effects of the European cohesion policy, while the third chapter assesses the effectiveness of Italian labour market incentives in reducing long-term unemployment. The first study analyses the effect of EU funds on life satisfaction across European regions , under the assumption that projects financed by structural funds in the fields of employment, education, health and environment may affect the overall quality of life in recipient regions. Using regional data from the European Social Survey in 2002-2006, it resorts to a regression discontinuity design, where the discontinuity is provided by the institutional framework of the policy. The second study aims at estimating the impact of large transfers from a centralized authority to a local administration on the incidence of white collar crimes. It merges a unique dataset on crimes committed in Italian municipalities between 2007 and 2011 with information on the disbursement of EU structural funds in 2007-2013 programming period, employing an instrumental variable estimation strategy that exploits the variation in the electoral cycle at local level. The third study analyses the impact of an Italian labour market policy that allowed firms to cut their labour costs on open-ended job contracts when hiring long-term unemployed workers. It takes advantage of a unique dataset that draws information from the unemployment lists in Veneto region and it resorts to a regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of the policy on the job finding rate of long-term unemployed workers.

Uric Acid and Cardiovascular Events: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Obesity and diets rich in uric acid-raising components appear to account for the increased prevalence of hyperuricemia in Westernized populations. Prevalence rates of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, CKD, and cardiovascular disease are also increasing. We used Mendelian randomization to examine whether uric acid is an independent and causal cardiovascular risk factor. Serum uric acid was measured in 3315 patients of the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study. We calculated a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) for uric acid concentration based on eight uric acid-regulating single nucleotide polymorphisms. Causal odds ratios and causal hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using a two-stage regression estimate with the GRS as the instrumental variable to examine associations with cardiometabolic phenotypes (cross-sectional) and mortality (prospectively) by logistic regression and Cox regression, respectively. Our GRS was not consistently associated with any biochemical marker except for uric acid, arguing against pleiotropy. Uric acid was associated with a range of prevalent diseases, including coronary artery disease. Uric acid and the GRS were both associated with cardiovascular death and sudden cardiac death. In a multivariate model adjusted for factors including medication, causal HRs corresponding to each 1-mg/dl increase in genetically predicted uric acid concentration were significant for cardiovascular death (HR, 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 2.81) and sudden cardiac death (HR, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 5.00). These results suggest that high uric acid is causally related to adverse cardiovascular outcomes, especially sudden cardiac death.

Directional imbalance of freight rates : evidence from Japanese inter-prefectural data

By analyzing a comprehensive dataset on transport transactions in Japan, we describe a directional imbalance in freight rates by transport mode and examine its potential sources, such as economies of density and directionally imbalanced transport flow. There are certain numbers of observed links which show asymmetric transport costs. Instrumental variable analysis is used to show that economies of density account for deviation from symmetric freight rates between prefectures. Our results show that a 10% increase in outbound transport flow relative to inbound transport flow leads to a 2.1% decrease in outbound freight rate relative to inbound freight rate.

Religion and polygamy : evidence from the livingstonia mission in Malawi

In contrast to the prevailing preconception, Christian females engage in polygyny in most of sub-Saharan Africa. Based on individual-level data provided by the Demographic and Health Survey (2000, 2004, 2010) in Malawi, this study explores whether Christian identity reduces the likelihood that females enter into polygyny. To address the endogeneity associated with this identity, the analysis adopts an instrumental variable (IV) approach by exploiting the unique setting of a Christian mission dating back to the late 19th century. Exposure to the mission, measured by geographical distance to the influential mission station, Livingstonia, enabled the indigenous population to gradually convert to Christianity. This is particularly true for the local population not belonging to the Yao, an ethnic group that was largely proselytized into Islam because of their historical connection with the Arabs. Using the distance-ethnicity (non-Yao) interaction as an IV for women's Christian identity, with numerous historical, geographic, and climate controls, this study discovers that compared to those practicing other religions (Islam and other) or no religion, Christian females are indeed less likely to form polygynous unions. This study also provides some evidence suggesting that the Christianity effects are more evident in a society at a more primitive stage of development.

Determinant factors to discriminate the body weight loss in overweight people

Introduction. Most studies have described how the weight loss is when different treatments are compared (1-3), while others have also compared the weight loss by sex (4), or have taken into account psychosocial (5) and lifestyle (6, 7) variables. However, no studies have examined the interaction of different variables and the importance of them in the weight loss. Objective. Create a model to discriminate the range of weight loss, determining the importance of each variable. Methods. 89 overweight people (BMI: 25-29.9 kg?m-2), aged from 18 to 50 years, participated in the study. Four types of treatments were randomly assigned: strength training (S), endurance training (E), strength and endurance training (SE), and control group (C). All participants followed a 25% calorie restriction diet. Two multivariate discriminant models including the variables age, sex, height, daily energy expenditure (EE), type of treatment (T), caloric restriction (CR), initial body weight (BW), initial fat mass (FM), initial muscle mass (MM) and initial bone mineral density (BMD) were performed having into account two groups: the first and fourth quartile of the % of weight loss in the first model; the groups above and below the mean of the % of weight loss in the second model. The discriminant models were built using the inclusion method in SPSS allowing us to find a function that could predict the body weight loss range that an overweight person could achieve in a 6 months weight loss intervention.Results. The first discriminant analysis predicted that a combination of the studied variables would discriminate between the two ranges of body weight loss with 81.4% of correct classification. The discriminant function obtained was (Wilks? Lambda=0.475, p=0.003): Discriminant score=-18.266-(0.060xage)- (1.282xsex[0=female;1=male])+(14.701xheight)+(0.002xEE)- (0.006xT[1=S;2=E;3=SE;4=C])-(0.047xCR)- (0.558xBW)+(0.475xFM)+(0.398xMM)+(3.499xBMD) The second discriminant model obtained would discriminate between the two groups of body weight loss with 74.4% of correct classification. The discriminant function obtained was (Wilks? Lambda=0.725, p=0.005): Discriminant score=-5.021-(0.052xage)- (0.543xsex[0=female;1=male])+(3.530xheight)+(0.001xEE)- (0.493xT[1=S;2=E;3=SE;4=C])+(0.003xCR)- (0.365xBW)+(0.368xFM)+(0.296xMM)+(4.034xBMD) Conclusion. The first developed model could predict the percentage of weight loss in the following way: if the discriminant score is close to 1.051, the range of weight loss will be from 7.44 to -4.64% and if it is close to - 1.003, the range will be from -11.03 to -25,00% of the initial body weight. With the second model if the discriminant score is close to 0.623 the body weight loss will be above -7.93% and if it is close to -0.595 will be below - 7.93% of the initial body weight. References. 1. Brochu M, et al. Resistance training does not contribute to improving the metabolic profile after a 6-month weight loss program in overweight and obese postmenopausal women. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2009 Sep;94(9):3226-33. 2. Del Corral P, et al. Effect of dietary adherence with or without exercise on weight loss: a mechanistic approach to a global problem. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2009 May;94(5):1602-7. 3. Larson-Meyer DE, et al. Caloric Restriction with or without Exercise: The Fitness vs. Fatness Debate. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2010;42(1):152-9. 4. Hagan RD, et al. The effects of aerobic conditioning and/or caloric restriction in overweight men and women. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise. 1986;18(1):87-94. 5. Teixeira PJ, et al. Mediators of weight loss and weight loss maintenance in middle-aged women. Obesity (Silver Spring). 2010 Apr;18(4):725-35. 6. Bautista-Castano I, et al. Variables predictive of adherence to diet and physical activity recommendations in the treatment of obesity and overweight, in a group of Spanish subjects. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord. 2004 May;28(5):697-705.

Prevalência de lesões musculo-esqueléticas em profissionais de artes musicais

Enquadramento: As lesões músculo-esqueléticas relacionadas com o trabalho apresentam-se atualmente como um crescente flagelo e a profissão de músico é uma atividade predisponente para a ocorrência dessas lesões, exigindo uma atenção especial dos profissionais de saúde para identificar e controlar os fatores de risco. Objetivos: O presente estudo pretende identificar a prevalência das perturbações músculo-esqueléticas nos músicos profissionais praticantes de Cordofones beliscados e analisar a sua relação com as variáveis sociodemográficas, estado de saúde e características da prática instrumental. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo não experimental, transversal, descritivo-correlacional e de caráter quantitativo, que envolveu 70 músicos portugueses praticantes de cordofones beliscados, residentes em Viseu, Porto e Lisboa, com idades compreendidas entre 18 e 55 anos. Foi realizado com recurso ao uso de um questionário que avalia as variáveis sociodemográficas, as clínicas e as relacionadas com a prática musical e para avaliação das perturbações musculoesqueléticas utilizámos o “Questionário Nórdico Músculo-Esquelético”. Resultados: Dos músicos estudados 70,0% referem sentir perturbações músculo-esqueléticas como dor/formigueiro/dormência nos últimos 12 meses, tendo estes ocorrido sobretudo nos punhos/mãos (68.6%), ombros (54.3%), pescoço e região lombar (44.3%). Observámos que são vários os fatores risco das perturbações musculoesqueléticas como a idade avançada, um Índice de Massa Corporal mais elevado, o consumo de bebidas alcoólicas, não praticar atividade física, o excesso de espetáculos, a postura adotada, instrumentos mais pesados e tocar sem pausas. Conclusões: O nosso estudo reforça a ideia de que as perturbações músculo-esqueléticas estão presentes nos músicos portugueses e que a sua origem está relacionada com características individuais, estado de saúde e exigências da prática instrumental. Cabe então ao Enfermeiro de Reabilitação criar estratégias preventivas, para evitar que os fatores de risco acrescidos causem ou aumentem as já instaladas lesões músculo-esqueléticas nos músicos, promovendo uma carreira longa e saudável. Palavras-chave: Músicos; Lesões musculoesqueléticas; Fatores de risco; Enfermagem de Reabilitação.

The impact of university research on corporate patenting

This paper analyses the association between the number of patenting manufacturing firms and the quantity and quality of relevant university research across UK postcode areas. We show that different measures of research `power' and `excellence' positively affect the patenting of small firms within the same postcode area. Patenting by large firms, in contrast, is unaffected by research undertaken in nearby universities. This confirms the commonly held view that location matters more for small firms than large firms. We also investigate specific channels of technology transfer, finding that university-industry knowledge transfer occurs through both formal and informal channels. From a methodological point of view, we contribute to the existing literature by accounting for potential simultaneity between university research and patenting of local firms by adopting an instrumental variable approach. Moreover, we also allow for the effects of the presence of universities in neighbouring postcode areas to influence firms' patenting activity by incorporating spatial neighborhood effects.

The political economy of inequality and growth: Essays on sovereign debt, democracy and saving

This dissertation addresses three issues in the political economy of growth literature. The first study empirically tests the hypothesis that income inequality influences the size of a country's sovereign debt for a sample of developing countries for the period 1970–1990. The argument examined is that governments tend to yield to popular pressures to engage in redistributive policies, partially financed by foreign borrowing. Facing increased risk of default, international creditors limit the credit they extend, with the result that borrowing countries invest less and grow at a slower pace. The findings do not seem to support the negative relationship between inequality and sovereign debt, as there is evidence of increases in multilateral, countercyclical flows until the mid 1980s in Latin America. The hypothesis would hold for the period 1983–1990. Debt flows and levels seem to be positively correlated with growth as expected. ^ The second study empirically investigates the hypothesis that pronounced levels of inequality lead to unconsolidated democracies. We test the existence of a nonmonotonic relationship between inequality and democracy for a sample of Latin American countries for the period 1970–2000, where democracy appears to consolidate at some intermediate level of inequality. We find that the nonmonotonic relationship holds using instrumental variables methods. Bolivia seems to be a case of unconsolidated democracy. The positive relationship between per capita income and democracy disappears once fixed effects are introduced. ^ The third study explores the nonlinear relationship between per capita income and private saving levels in Latin America. Several estimation methods are presented; however, only the estimation of a dynamic specification through a state-of-the-art general method of moments estimator yields consistent estimates with increased efficiency. Results support the hypothesis that income positively affects private saving, while system GMM reveals nonlinear effects at income levels that exceed the ones included in this sample for the period 1960–1994. We also find that growth, government dissaving, and tightening of credit constraints have a highly significant and positive effect on private saving. ^

Essays on Microeconometrics

My dissertation has three chapters which develop and apply microeconometric tech- niques to empirically relevant problems. All the chapters examines the robustness issues (e.g., measurement error and model misspecification) in the econometric anal- ysis. The first chapter studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treat- ment variable is mismeasured and endogenous. I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the following two assumptions: (1) the exclusion restriction of an instrument and (2) deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment variable in the instrument. The identification strategy allows for general measurement error. Notably, (i) the measurement error is nonclassical, (ii) it can be endogenous, and (iii) no assumptions are imposed on the marginal distribution of the measurement error, so that I do not need to assume the accuracy of the measure- ment. Based on the partial identification result, I provide a consistent confidence interval for the local average treatment effect with uniformly valid size control. I also show that the identification strategy can incorporate repeated measurements to narrow the identified set, even if the repeated measurements themselves are endoge- nous. Using the the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, I demonstrate that my new methodology can produce nontrivial bounds for the return to college attendance when attendance is mismeasured and endogenous.

The second chapter, which is a part of a coauthored project with Federico Bugni, considers the problem of inference in dynamic discrete choice problems when the structural model is locally misspecified. We consider two popular classes of estimators for dynamic discrete choice models: K-step maximum likelihood estimators (K-ML) and K-step minimum distance estimators (K-MD), where K denotes the number of policy iterations employed in the estimation problem. These estimator classes include popular estimators such as Rust (1987)’s nested fixed point estimator, Hotz and Miller (1993)’s conditional choice probability estimator, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002)’s nested algorithm estimator, and Pesendorfer and Schmidt-Dengler (2008)’s least squares estimator. We derive and compare the asymptotic distributions of K- ML and K-MD estimators when the model is arbitrarily locally misspecified and we obtain three main results. In the absence of misspecification, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002) show that all K-ML estimators are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our first result shows that this finding extends to a locally misspecified model, regardless of the degree of local misspecification. As a second result, we show that an analogous result holds for all K-MD estimators, i.e., all K- MD estimator are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our third and final result is to compare K-MD and K-ML estimators in terms of asymptotic mean squared error. Under local misspecification, the optimally weighted K-MD estimator depends on the unknown asymptotic bias and is no longer feasible. In turn, feasible K-MD estimators could have an asymptotic mean squared error that is higher or lower than that of the K-ML estimators. To demonstrate the relevance of our asymptotic analysis, we illustrate our findings using in a simulation exercise based on a misspecified version of Rust (1987) bus engine problem.

The last chapter investigates the causal effect of the Omnibus Budget Reconcil- iation Act of 1993, which caused the biggest change to the EITC in its history, on unemployment and labor force participation among single mothers. Unemployment and labor force participation are difficult to define for a few reasons, for example, be- cause of marginally attached workers. Instead of searching for the unique definition for each of these two concepts, this chapter bounds unemployment and labor force participation by observable variables and, as a result, considers various competing definitions of these two concepts simultaneously. This bounding strategy leads to partial identification of the treatment effect. The inference results depend on the construction of the bounds, but they imply positive effect on labor force participa- tion and negligible effect on unemployment. The results imply that the difference- in-difference result based on the BLS definition of unemployment can be misleading

due to misclassification of unemployment.