A conceptual framework to assess the effectiveness of HIV prevention

Aim: The relative effectiveness of different methods of prevention of HIV transmission is a subject of debate that is renewed with the integration of each new method. The relative weight of values and evidence in decision-making is not always clearly defined. Debate is often confused, as the proponents of different approaches address the issue at different levels of implementation. This paper defines and delineates the successive levels of analysis of effectiveness, and proposes a conceptual framework to clarify debate. Method / Issue: Initially inspired from work on contraceptive effectiveness, a first version of the conceptual framework was published in 1993 with definition of the Condom Effectiveness Matrix (Spencer, 1993). The framework has since integrated and further developed thinking around distinctions made between efficacy and effectiveness and has been applied to HIV prevention in general. Three levels are defined: theoretical effectiveness (ThE), use-effectiveness (UseE) and population use-effectiveness (PopUseE). For example, abstinence and faithfulness, as proposed in the ABC strategy, have relatively high theoretical effectiveness but relatively low effectiveness at subsequent levels of implementation. The reverse is true of circumcision. Each level is associated with specific forms of scientific enquiry and associated research questions: basic and clinical sciences with ThE; clinical and social sciences with UseE; epidemiology and social, economic and political sciences with PopUseE. Similarly, the focus of investigation moves from biological organisms, to the individual at the physiological and then psychological, social and ecological level, and finally takes as perspective populations and societies as a whole. The framework may be applied to analyse issues on any approach. Hence, regarding consideration of HIV treatment as a means of prevention, examples of issues at each level would be: ThE: achieving adequate viral suppression and non-transmission to partners; UseE: facility and degree of adherence to treatment and medical follow-up; PopUseE: perceived validity of strategy, feasibility of achieving adequate population coverage. Discussion: Use of the framework clarifies the questions that need to be addressed at all levels in order to improve effectiveness. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and complementary nature of research from the different scientific disciplines and the relative contribution of each become apparent. The proposed framework could bring greater rationality to the prevention effectiveness debate and facilitate communication between stakeholders.

Assessing multiple sclerosis activity: is the in vitro production of tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukins 2, 6, 4, and 10, and immunoglobulin G of value?

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha, interleukins (IL) 2, 4, 6, and 10, and IgG oligoclonal bands (IgG OB) in vitro production was assessed, after whole-blood stimulation with lipopolysaccharide or concanavalin A, in 61 patients presenting with relapsing-remitting, relapsing-progressive, or chronic progressive multiple sclerosis. Multiple sclerosis patients were receiving no treatment or azathioprine (AZA), cyclosporin, cyclophosphamide, subcutaneous interferon (IFN) beta 1 a, or corticosteroids (CST). Statistical correlations significantly showed that: (a) AZA lowers TNF-alpha (P = 0.002) and increases IL-4 production (P = 0.0024), and IFN-beta 1 a increases TNF-alpha and decreases IL-4 levels; (b) CST has a negative effect on TNF-alpha, IL-6, and IL-4 synthesis; and (c) AZA, IFN-beta 1 a, and CST diminish IgG OB synthesis (P = 0.001). Although our study of the dynamics of TNF-alpha, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10 in vitro production generally found no statistically significant correlations (partly explained by the limited number of values in the various groups), IL-6 was shown to drop during the periods surrounding relapse (P = 0.05) in the absence of treatment, while TNF-alpha (P = 0.04) and IL-6 (P < 0.05) dropped before exacerbation in the presence of AZA. In vitro production of TNF-alpha was closely and positively correlated with that of IL-6, independently of clinical features. The enhanced production of IL-10 detected before or at relapse with AZA and IFN-beta 1 a (trends) may interfere with initiation of the immune reaction and with the development of new CNS lesions. Some discrepancies with previously published results stress the difficulties in studying the state of stimulation of different populations of leukocytes by using a variety of in vitro stimuli and in establishing a correlation between mRNA studies and the amount of final or active protein produced.

Speech by Mr. Micheál Martin TD – Meeting The Challenges Of Cultural Diversity In The Irish Healthcare Sector

It gives me great pleasure to accept the invitation to address this conference on “Meeting the Challenges of Cultural Diversity in the Irish Healthcare Sector” which is being organised by the Irish Health Services Management Institute in partnership with the National Consultative Committee on Racism and Interculturalism. The conference provides an important opportunity to develop our knowledge and understanding of the issues surrounding cultural diversity in the health sector from the twin perspectives of patients and staff. Cultural diversity has over recent years become an increasingly visible aspect of Irish society bringing with it both opportunities and challenges. It holds out great possibilities for the enrichment of all who live in Ireland but it also challenges us to adapt creatively to the changes required to realise this potential and to ensure that the experience is a positive one for all concerned but particularly for those in the minority ethnic groups. In the last number of years in particular, the focus has tended to be on people coming to this country either as refugees, asylum seekers or economic migrants. Government figures estimate that as many as 340,000 immigrants are expected in the next six years. However ethnic and cultural diversity are not new phenomena in Ireland. Travellers have a long history as an indigenous minority group in Ireland with a strong culture and identity of their own. The changing experience and dynamics of their relationship with the wider society and its institutions over time can, I think, provide some valuable lessons for us as we seek to address the more numerous and complex issues of cultural diversity which have arisen for us in the last decade. Turning more specifically to the health sector which is the focus of this conference, culture and identity have particular relevance to health service policy and provision in that The first requirement is that we in the health service acknowledge cultural diversity and the differences in behaviours and in the less obvious areas of values and beliefs that this often implies. Only by acknowledging these differences in a respectful way and informing ourselves of them can we address them. Our equality legislation – The Employment Equality Act, 1998 and the Equal Status Act, 2000 – prohibits discrimination on nine grounds including race and membership of the Traveller community. The Equal Status Act prohibits discrimination on an individual basis in relation to the nine grounds while for groups it provides for the promotion of equality of opportunity. The Act applies to the provision of services including health services. I will speak first about cultural diversity in relation to the patient. In this respect it is worth mentioning that the recognition of cultural diversity and appropriate responses to it were issues which were strongly emphasised in the public consultation process which we held earlier this year in the context of developing National Anti-Poverty targets for the health sector and also our new national health strategy. Awareness and sensitivity training for staff is a key requirement for adapting to a culturally diverse patient population. The focus of this training should be the development of the knowledge and skills to provide services sensitive to cultural diversity. Such training can often be most effectively delivered in partnership with members of the minority groups themselves. I am aware that the Traveller community, for example, is involved in in-service training for health care workers. I am also aware that the National Consultative Committee on Racism and Interculturalism has been involved in training with the Eastern Regional Health Authority. We need to have more such initiatives. A step beyond the sensitivity training for existing staff is the training of members of the minority communities themselves as workers in our health services. Again the Traveller community has set an example in this area with its Primary Health Care Project for Travellers. The Primary Health Care for Travellers Project was established in 1994 as a joint partnership initiative with the Eastern Health Board and Pavee Point, with ongoing technical assistance being provided from the Department of Community Health and General Practice, Trinity College, Dublin. This project was the first of its kind in the country and has facilitated The project included a training course which concentrated on skills development, capacity building and the empowerment of Travellers. This confidence and skill allowed the Community Health Workers to go out and conduct a baseline survey to identify and articulate Travellers’ health needs. This was the first time that Travellers were involved in this process; in the past their needs were assumed. The results of the survey were fed back to the community and they prioritised their needs and suggested changes to the health services which would facilitate their access and utilisation. Ongoing monitoring and data collection demonstrates a big improvement in levels of satisfaction and uptake and ulitisation of health services by Travellers in the pilot area. This Primary Health Care for Travellers initiative is being replicated in three other areas around the country and funding has been approved for a further 9 new projects. This pilot project was the recipient of a WHO 50th anniversary commemorative award in 1998. The project is developing as a model of good practice which could inspire further initiatives of this type for other minority groups. Access to information has been identified in numerous consultative processes as a key factor in enabling people to take a proactive approach to managing their own health and that of their families and in facilitating their access to health services. Honouring our commitment to equity in these areas requires that information is provided in culturally appropriate formats. The National Health Promotion Strategy 2000-2005, for example, recognises that there exists within our society many groups with different requirements which need to be identified and accommodated when planning and implementing health promotion interventions. These groups include Travellers, refugees and asylum seekers, people with intellectual, physical or sensory disability and the gay and lesbian community. The Strategy acknowledges the challenge involved in being sensitive to the potential differences in patterns of poor health among these different groups. The Strategic aim is to promote the physical, mental and social well-being of individuals from these groups. The objective of the Strategy on these issues are: While our long term aim may be to mainstream responses so that our health services is truly multicultural, we must recognise the need at this point in time for very specific focused responses particularly for groups with poor health status such as Travellers and also for refugees and asylum seekers. In the case of refugees and asylum seekers examples of targeted services are screening for communicable diseases – offered on a voluntary basis – and psychological support services for those who have suffered trauma before coming here. The two approaches of targeting and mainstreaming are not mutually exclusive. A combination of both is required at this point in time but the balance between them must be kept under constant review in the light of changing needs. A major requirement if we are to meet the challenge of cultural diversity is an appropriate data and research base. I think it is important that we build up our information and research data base in partnership with the minority groups themselves. We must establish what the health needs of diverse groups are; we must monitor uptake of services and how well we are responding to needs and we must monitor outcomes and health status. We must also examine the impact of the policies in other sectors on the health of minority groups. The National Health Information Strategy, currently being developed, and the recently published National Strategy for Health Research – Making Knowledge Work for Health provide important frameworks within which we can improve our data and research base. A culturally diverse health sector workforce – challenges and opportunities The Irish health service can benefit greatly from successful international recruitment. There has been a strong non-national representation amongst the medical profession for more than 30 years. More recently there have been significant increases in other categories of health service workers from overseas. The Department recognises the enormous value that overseas recruitment brings over a wide range of services and supports the development of effective and appropriate recruitment strategies in partnership with health service employers. These changes have made cultural diversity an important issue for all health service organisations. Diversity in the workplace is primarily about creating a culture that seeks, respects, values and harnesses difference. This includes all the differences that when added together make each person unique. So instead of the focus being on particular groups, diversity is about all of us. Change is not about helping “them” to join “us” but about critically looking at “us” and rooting out all aspects of our culture that inappropriately exclude people and prevent us from being inclusive in the way we relate to employees, potential employees and clients of the health service. International recruitment benefits consumers, Irish employees and the overseas personnel alike. Regardless of whether they are employed by the health service, members of minority groups will be clients of our service and consequently we need to be flexible in order to accommodate different cultural needs. For staff, we recognise that coming from other cultures can be a difficult transition. Consequently health service employers have made strong efforts to assist them during this period. Many organisations provide induction courses, religious facilities (such as prayer rooms) and help in finding suitable accommodation. The Health Service Employers Agency (HSEA) is developing an equal opportunities/diversity strategy and action plans as well as training programmes to support their implementation, to ensure that all health service employment policies and practices promote the equality/diversity agenda to continue the development of a culturally diverse health service. The management of this new environment is extremely important for the health service as it offers an opportunity to go beyond set legal requirements and to strive for an acceptance and nurturing of cultural differences. Workforce cultural diversity affords us the opportunity to learn from the working practices and perspectives of others by allowing personnel to present their ideas and experience through teamwork, partnership structures and other appropriate fora, leading to further improvement in the services we provide. It is important to ensure that both personnel units and line managers communicate directly with their staff and demonstrate by their actions that they intend to create an inclusive work place which doesn´t demand that minority staff fit. Contented, valued employees who feel that there is a place for them in the organisation will deliver a high quality health service. Your conference here today has two laudable aims – to heighten awareness and assist health care staff to work effectively with their colleagues from different cultural backgrounds and to gain a greater understanding of the diverse needs of patients from minority ethnic backgrounds. There is a synergy in these aims and in the tasks to which they give rise in the management of our health service. The creative adaptations required for one have the potential to feed into the other. I would like to commend both organisations which are hosting this conference for their initiative in making this event happen, particularly at this time – Racism in the Workplace Week. I look forward very much to hearing the outcome of your deliberations. Thank you.

Larval biometry of Simulium rubrithorax (Diptera: Simuliidae) and size comparison between populations in the states of Minas Gerais and Roraima, Brazil

The number of larval instars of Simulium (Hemicnetha) rubrithorax Lutz (Diptera: Nematocera) was determined using the lateral length of the head capsule. In this study 1,035 larvae, of different sizes, were measured (639 from the state of Roraima and 396 from the state of Minas Gerais). A frequency distribution analysis was carried out on the measurements of the lateral length of the head capsule to determine the number of larval instars. The limits of each instar were defined by the lower frequency of the measurements falling in a range of values, by the presence of the "egg burster" that characterizes the first larval instar, and by the developmental stage of the gill histoblast. The determination of the instar number was tested using a Student's t-test (p < 0.05), the Dyar rule and the Crosby growth rule. The results indicate the existence of 7 larval instars for this species, although this result was not in accordance to the Crosby rule. Last-instar larvae from two widely separated geographical populations (Roraima and Minas Gerais), collected in habitats with different water temperature were compared and no differences (p > 0.05) were observed between them.

Contrasting spatio-temporal climatic niche dynamics during the eastern and western invasions of spotted knapweed in North America

Aim The spotted knapweed (Centaurea stoebe), a plant native to south-east and central Europe, is highly invasive in North America. We investigated the spatio-temporal climatic niche dynamics of the spotted knapweed in North America along two putative eastern and western invasion routes. We then considered the patterns observed in the light of historical, ecological and evolutionary factors. Location Europe and North America. Methods The niche characteristics of the east and west invasive populations of spotted knapweed in North America were determined from documented occurrences over 120 consecutive years (1890-2010). The 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of values along temperature and precipitation gradients, as given by the two first axes of a principal component axis (PCA), were then calculated. We additionally measured the climatic dissimilarity between invaded and native niches using a multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analysis. Results Along both invasion routes, the species established in regions with climatic conditions that were similar to those in the native range in Europe. An initial spread in ruderal habitats always preceded spread in (semi-)natural habitats. In the east, the niche gradually increased over time until it reached limits similar to the native niche. Conversely, in the west the niche abruptly expanded after an extended time lag into climates not occupied in the native range; only the native cold niche limit was conserved. Main conclusions Our study reveals that different niche dynamics have taken place during the eastern and western invasions. This pattern indicates different combinations of historical, ecological and evolutionary factors in the two ranges. We hypothesize that the lack of a well-developed transportation network in the west at the time of the introduction of spotted knapweed confined the species to a geographically and climatically isolated region. The invasion of dry rangelands may have been favoured during the agricultural transition in the 1930s by release from natural enemies, local adaptation and less competitive vegetation, but further experimental and molecular studies are needed to explain these contrasting niche patterns fully. Our study illustrates the need and benefit of applying large-scale, temporally explicit approaches to understanding biological invasions.

Intraocular penetration of penciclovir after oral administration of famciclovir: a population pharmacokinetic model.

OBJECTIVES: We developed a population model that describes the ocular penetration and pharmacokinetics of penciclovir in human aqueous humour and plasma after oral administration of famciclovir. METHODS: Fifty-three patients undergoing cataract surgery received a single oral dose of 500 mg of famciclovir prior to surgery. Concentrations of penciclovir in both plasma and aqueous humour were measured by HPLC with fluorescence detection. Concentrations in plasma and aqueous humour were fitted using a two-compartment model (NONMEM software). Inter-individual and intra-individual variabilities were quantified and the influence of demographics and physiopathological and environmental variables on penciclovir pharmacokinetics was explored. RESULTS: Drug concentrations were fitted using a two-compartment, open model with first-order transfer rates between plasma and aqueous humour compartments. Among tested covariates, creatinine clearance, co-intake of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and body weight significantly influenced penciclovir pharmacokinetics. Plasma clearance was 22.8 ± 9.1 L/h and clearance from the aqueous humour was 8.2 × 10(-5) L/h. AUCs were 25.4 ± 10.2 and 6.6 ± 1.8 μg · h/mL in plasma and aqueous humour, respectively, yielding a penetration ratio of 0.28 ± 0.06. Simulated concentrations in the aqueous humour after administration of 500 mg of famciclovir three times daily were in the range of values required for 50% growth inhibition of non-resistant strains of the herpes zoster virus family. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma and aqueous penciclovir concentrations showed significant variability that could only be partially explained by renal function, body weight and comedication. Concentrations in the aqueous humour were much lower than in plasma, suggesting that factors in the blood-aqueous humour barrier might prevent its ocular penetration or that redistribution occurs in other ocular compartments.

Estimation du débit de filtration glomérulaire par la formule DFG = K x T/Pcr [Estimation of glomerular filtration rate by the formula GFR = K x T/Pc].

BACKGROUND: Creatinine clearance is the most common method used to assess glomerular filtration rate (GFR). In children, GFR can also be estimated without urine collection, using the formula GFR (mL/min x 1.73 m2) = K x height [cm]/Pcr [mumol/L]), where Pcr represents the plasma creatinine concentration. K is usually calculated using creatinine clearance (Ccr) as an index of GFR. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the reliability of the formula, using the standard UV/P inulin clearance to calculate K. METHODS: Clearance data obtained in 200 patients (1 month to 23 years) during the years 1988-1994 were used to calculate the factor K as a function of age. Forty-four additional patients were studied prospectively in conditions of either hydropenia or water diuresis in order to evaluate the possible variation of K as a function of urine flow rate. RESULTS: When GFR was estimated by the standard inulin clearance, the calculated values of K was 39 (infants less than 6 months), 44 (1-2 years) and 47 (2-12 years). The correlation between the values of GFR, as estimated by the formula, and the values measured by the standard clearance of inulin was highly significant; the scatter of individual values was however substantial. When K was calculated using Ccr, the formula overestimated Cin at all urine flow rates. When calculated from Ccr, K varied as a function of urine flow rate (K = 50 at urine flow rates of 3.5 and K = 64 at urine flow rates of 8.5 mL/min x 1.73 m2). When calculated from Cin, in the same conditions, K remained constant with a value of 50. CONCLUSIONS: The formula GFR = K x H/Pcr can be used to estimate GFR. The scatter of values precludes however the use of the formula to estimate GFR in pathophysiological studies. The formula should only be used when K is calculated from Cin, and the plasma creatinine concentration is measured in well defined conditions of hydration.

Nuclear well logging in soils. Calibration of slim hole nuclear tools gamma-gamma and neutron-thermal neutron.

The calculation of elasticity parameters by sonic and ultra sonic wave propagation in saturated soils using Biot's theory needs the following variables : forpiation density and porosity (p, ø), compressional and shear wave velocities (Vp, Vs), fluid density, viscosity and compressibility (Pfi Ilfi Ki), matrix density and compressibility (p" K), The first four parameters can be determined in situ using logging probes. Because fluid and matrix characteristics are not modified during core extraction, they can be obtained through laboratory measurements. All parameters necessitate precise calibrations in various environments and for specific range of values encountered in soils. The slim diameter of boreholes in shallow geophysics and the high cost of petroleum equipment demand the use of specific probes, which usually only give qualitative results. The measurement 'of density is done with a gamma-gamma probe and the measurement of hydrogen index, in relation to porosity, by a neutron probe. The first step of this work has been carried out in synthetic formations in the laboratory using homogeneous media of known density and porosity. To establish borehole corrections different casings have been used. Finally a comparison between laboratory and in situ data in cored holes of known geometry and casing has been performed.

Empirical studies of cloud effects on UV radiation: A review

The interest in solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the scientific community and the general population has risen significantly in recent years because of the link between increased UV levels at the Earth's surface and depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. As a consequence of recent research, UV radiation climatologies have been developed, and effects of some atmospheric constituents (such as ozone or aerosols) have been studied broadly. Correspondingly, there are well-established relationships between, for example, total ozone column and UV radiation levels at the Earth's surface. Effects of clouds, however, are not so well described, given the intrinsic difficulties in properly describing cloud characteristics. Nevertheless, the effect of clouds cannot be neglected, and the variability that clouds induce on UV radiation is particularly significant when short timescales are involved. In this review we show, summarize, and compare several works that deal with the effect of clouds on UV radiation. Specifically, works reviewed here approach the issue from the empirical point of view: Some relationship between measured UV radiation in cloudy conditions and cloud-related information is given in each work. Basically, there are two groups of methods: techniques that are based on observations of cloudiness (either from human observers or by using devices such as sky cameras) and techniques that use measurements of broadband solar radiation as a surrogate for cloud observations. Some techniques combine both types of information. Comparison of results from different works is addressed through using the cloud modification factor (CMF) defined as the ratio between measured UV radiation in a cloudy sky and calculated radiation for a cloudless sky. Typical CMF values for overcast skies range from 0.3 to 0.7, depending both on cloud type and characteristics. Despite this large dispersion of values corresponding to the same cloud cover, it is clear that the cloud effect on UV radiation is 15–45% lower than the cloud effect on total solar radiation. The cloud effect is usually a reducing effect, but a significant number of works report an enhancement effect (that is increased UV radiation levels at the surface) due to the presence of clouds. The review concludes with some recommendations for future studies aimed to further analyze the cloud effects on UV radiation

A program for the computation of power and determination of sample size in hierarchical experimental designs.

We have devised a program that allows computation of the power of F-test, and hence determination of appropriate sample and subsample sizes, in the context of the one-way hierarchical analysis of variance with fixed effects. The power at a fixed alternative is an increasing function of the sample size and of the subsample size. The program makes it easy to obtain the power of F-test for a range of values of sample and subsample sizes, and therefore the appropriate sizes based on a desired power. The program can be used for the 'ordinary' case of the one-way analysis of variance, as well as for hierarchical analysis of variance with two stages of sampling. Examples are given of the practical use of the program.

Nanoscale capacitance microscopy of thin dielectric films

We present an analytical model to interpret nanoscale capacitance microscopy measurements on thin dielectric films. The model displays a logarithmic dependence on the tip-sample distance and on the film thickness-dielectric constant ratio and shows an excellent agreement with finite-element numerical simulations and experimental results on a broad range of values. Based on these results, we discuss the capabilities of nanoscale capacitance microscopy for the quantitative extraction of the dielectric constant and the thickness of thin dielectric films at the nanoscale.

Atomic parity nonconservation, neutron radii, and effective field theories of nuclei

Accurately calibrated effective field theories are used to compute atomic parity nonconserving (APNC) observables. Although accurately calibrated, these effective field theories predict a large spread in the neutron skin of heavy nuclei. Whereas the neutron skin is strongly correlated to numerous physical observables, in this contribution we focus on its impact on new physics through APNC observables. The addition of an isoscalar-isovector coupling constant to the effective Lagrangian generates a wide range of values for the neutron skin of heavy nuclei without compromising the success of the model in reproducing well-constrained nuclear observables. Earlier studies have suggested that the use of isotopic ratios of APNC observables may eliminate their sensitivity to atomic structure. This leaves nuclear structure uncertainties as the main impediment for identifying physics beyond the standard model. We establish that uncertainties in the neutron skin of heavy nuclei are at present too large to measure isotopic ratios to better than the 0.1% accuracy required to test the standard model. However, we argue that such uncertainties will be significantly reduced by the upcoming measurement of the neutron radius in 208^Pb at the Jefferson Laboratory.

Simulations in Evolution. III. Randomness as a Generator of Opportunities.

In Neo-Darwinism, variation and natural selection are the two evolutionary mechanisms which propel biological evolution. Our previous reports presented a histogram model to simulate the evolution of populations of individuals classified into bins according to an unspecified, quantifiable phenotypic character, and whose number in each bin changed generation after generation under the influence of fitness, while the total population was maintained constant. The histogram model also allowed Shannon entropy (SE) to be monitored continuously as the information content of the total population decreased or increased. Here, a simple Perl (Practical Extraction and Reporting Language) application was developed to carry out these computations, with the critical feature of an added random factor in the percent of individuals whose offspring moved to a vicinal bin. The results of the simulations demonstrate that the random factor mimicking variation increased considerably the range of values covered by Shannon entropy, especially when the percentage of changed offspring was high. This increase in information content is interpreted as facilitated adaptability of the population.

Different likelihood ratio approaches to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons

Two likelihood ratio (LR) approaches are presented to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons. The first one is based on a more 'traditional' comparison of MDMA tablets by using distance measures (e.g., Pearson correlation distance or a Euclidean distance). In this approach, LRs are calculated using the distribution of distances between tablets of the same-batch and that of different-batches. The second approach is based on methods used in some other fields of forensic comparison. Here LRs are calculated based on the distribution of values of MDMA tablet characteristics within a specific batch and from all batches. The data used in this paper must be seen as examples to illustrate both methods. In future research the methods can be applied to other and more complex data. In this paper, the methods and their results are discussed, considering their performance in evidence evaluation and several practical aspects. With respect to evidence in favor of the correct hypothesis, the second method proved to be better than the first one. It is shown that the LRs in same-batch comparisons are generally higher compared to the first method and the LRs in different-batch comparisons are generally lower. On the other hand, for operational purposes (where quick information is needed), the first method may be preferred, because it is less time consuming. With this method a model has to be estimated only once in a while, which means that only a few measurements have to be done, while with the second method more measurements are needed because each time a new model has to be estimated.

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulation for the local-scale characterization of heterogeneous aquifers

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.