Estimating learning models from experimental data

We study the statistical properties of three estimation methods for a model of learning that is often fitted to experimental data: quadratic deviation measures without unobserved heterogeneity, and maximum likelihood withand without unobserved heterogeneity. After discussing identification issues, we show that the estimators are consistent and provide their asymptotic distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity can lead to seriously biased estimations in samples which have the typical length of actual experiments. Better small sample properties areobtained if unobserved heterogeneity is introduced. That is, rather than estimating the parameters for each individual, the individual parameters are considered random variables, and the distribution of those random variables is estimated.

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

More on Testing for Validity Instead of Looking for It

Using Monte Carlo simulations and reanalyzing the data of a validation study of the AEIM emotional intelligence test, we demonstrated that an atheoretical approach and the use of weak statistical procedures can result in biased validity estimates. These procedures included stepwise regression-and the general case of failing to include important theoretical controls-extreme scores analysis, and ignoring heteroscedasticity as well as measurement error. The authors of the AEIM test responded by offering more complete information about their analyses, allowing us to further examine the perils of ignoring theory and correct statistical procedures. In this paper we show with extended analyses that the AEIM test is invalid.

Impact of incorrect assumptions on the covariance structure of random effects and/or residuals in nonlinear mixed models for repeated measures data

In this paper we analyse, using Monte Carlo simulation, the possible consequences of incorrect assumptions on the true structure of the random effects covariance matrix and the true correlation pattern of residuals, over the performance of an estimation method for nonlinear mixed models. The procedure under study is the well known linearization method due to Lindstrom and Bates (1990), implemented in the nlme library of S-Plus and R. Its performance is studied in terms of bias, mean square error (MSE), and true coverage of the associated asymptotic confidence intervals. Ignoring other criteria like the convenience of avoiding over parameterised models, it seems worst to erroneously assume some structure than do not assume any structure when this would be adequate.

Multidimensionnalité des violences envers les femmes. La Suisse en regard des États-Unis: pertinence et validité d'une comparaison

Summary : International comparisons in the area of victimization, particularly in the field of violence against women, are fraught with methodological problems that previous research has not systematically addressed, and whose answer does not seem to be agreed up~n. For obvious logistic and financial reasons, international studies on violence against women (i.e. studies that administer the same instrument in different countries). are seldom; therefore, researchers are bound to resort to secondary comparisons. Many studies simply juxtapose their results to the ones of previous wòrk or to findings obtained in different contexts, in order to offer an allegedly comparative perspective to their conclusions. If, most of the time, researchers indicate the methodological limitations of a direct comparison, it is not rare that these do not result in concrete methodological controls. Yet, many studies have shown the influence of surveys methodological parameters on findings, listing recommendations fora «best practice» of research. Although, over the past decades, violence against women surveys have become more and more similar -tending towards a sort of uniformization that could be interpreted as a passive consensus -these instruments retain more or less subtle differences that are still susceptible to influence the validity of a comparison. Yet, only a small number of studies have directly worked on the comparability of violence against women data, striving to control the methodological parameters of the surveys in order to guarantee the validity of their comparisons. The goal of this work is to compare data from two national surveys on violence against women: the Swiss component of the International Violence Against Women Survey [CH-IVAWS] and the National Violence Against Women Survey [NVAWS] administered in the United States. The choice of these studies certainly ensues from the author's affiliations; however, it is far from being trivial. Indeed, the criminological field currently endows American and Anglo-Saxon literature with a predominant space, compelling researchers from other countries to almost do the splits to interpret their results in the light of previous work or to develop effective interventions in their own context. Turning to hypotheses or concepts developed in a specific framework inevitably raises the issue of their applicability to another context, i.e. the Swiss context, if not at least European. This problematic then takes on an interest that goes beyond the particular topic of violence against women, adding to its relevance. This work articulates around three axes. First, it shows the way survey characteristics influence estimates. The comparability of the nature of the CH-IVAWS and NVAWS, their sampling design and the characteristics of their administration are discussed. The definitions used, the operationalization of variables based on comparable items, the control of reference periods, as well as the nature of the victim-offender relationship are included among controlled factors. This study establishes content validity within and across studies, presenting a systematic process destined to maximize the comparability of secondary data. Implications of the process are illustrated with the successive presentation of comparable and non-comparable operationalizations of computed variables. Measuring violence against. women in Switzerland and the United-States, this work compares the prevalence of different forms (threats, physical violence and sexual violence) and types of violence (partner and nonpartner violence). Second, it endeavors to analyze concepts of multivictimization (i.e. experiencing different forms of victimization), repeat victimization (i.e. experiencing the same form of violence more than once), and revictimization (i.e. the link between childhood and adulthood victimization) in a comparative -and comparable -approach. Third, aiming at understanding why partner violence appears higher in the United States, while victims of nonpartners are more frequent in Switzerland, as well as in other European countries, different victimization correlates are examined. This research contributes to a better understanding of the relevance of controlling methodological parameters in comparisons across studies, as it illustrates, systematically, the imposed controls and their implications on quantitative data. Moreover, it details how ignoring these parameters might lead to erroneous conclusions, statistically as well as theoretically. The conclusion of the study puts into a wider perspective the discussion of differences and similarities of violence against women in Switzerland and the United States, and integrates recommendations as to the relevance and validity of international comparisons, whatever the'field they are conducted in. Résumé: Les comparaisons internationales dans le domaine de la victimisation, et plus particulièrement en ce qui concerne les violences envers les femmes, se caractérisent par des problèmes méthodologiques que les recherches antérieures n'ont pas systématiquement adressés, et dont la réponse ne semble pas connaître de consensus. Pour des raisons logistiques et financières évidentes, les études internationales sur les violences envers les femmes (c.-à-d. les études utilisant un même instrument dans différents pays) sont rares, aussi les chercheurs sont-ils contraints de se tourner vers des comparaisons secondaires. Beaucoup de recherches juxtaposent alors simplement leurs résultats à ceux de travaux antérieurs ou à des résultats obtenus dans d'autres contextes, afin d'offrir à leurs conclusions une perspective prétendument comparative. Si, le plus souvent, les auteurs indiquent les limites méthodologiques d'une comparaison directe, il est fréquent que ces dernières ne se traduisent pas par des contrôles méthodologiques concrets. Et pourtant, quantité de travaux ont mis en évidence l'influence des paramètres méthodologiques des enquêtes sur les résultats obtenus, érigeant des listes de recommandations pour une «meilleure pratique» de la recherche. Bien que, ces dernières décennies, les sondages sur les violences envers les femmes soient devenus de plus en plus similaires -tendant, vers une certaine uniformisation que l'on peut interpréter comme un consensus passif-, il n'en demeure pas moins que ces instruments possèdent des différences plus ou moins subtiles, mais toujours susceptibles d'influencer la validité d'une comparaison. Pourtant, seules quelques recherches ont directement travaillé sur la comparabilité des données sur les violences envers les femmes, ayant à coeur de contrôler les paramètres méthodologiques des études utilisées afin de garantir la validité de leurs comparaisons. L'objectif de ce travail est la comparaison des données de deux sondages nationaux sur les violences envers les femmes: le composant suisse de l'International Violence Against Women Survey [CHIVAWSj et le National Violence Against Women Survey [NVAWS) administré aux États-Unis. Le choix de ces deux études découle certes des affiliations de l'auteure, cependant il est loin d'être anodin. Le champ criminologique actuel confère, en effet, une place prépondérante à la littérature américaine et anglo-saxonne, contraignant ainsi les chercheurs d'autres pays à un exercice proche du grand écart pour interpréter leurs résultats à la lumière des travaux antérieurs ou développer des interventions efficaces dans leur propre contexte. Le fait de recourir à des hypothèses et des concepts développés dans un cadre spécifique pose inévitablement la question de leur applicabilité à un autre contexte, soit ici le contexte suisse, sinon du moins européen. Cette problématique revêt alors un intérêt qui dépasse la thématique spécifique des violences envers les femmes, ce qui ajoute à sa pertinence. Ce travail s'articule autour de trois axes. Premièrement, il met en évidence la manière dont les caractéristiques d'un sondage influencent les estimations qui en découlent. La comparabilité de la nature du CH-IVAWS et du NVAWS, de leur processus d'échantillonnage et des caractéristiques de leur administration est discutée. Les définitions utilisées, l'opérationnalisation des variables sur la base d'items comparables, le contrôle des périodes de référence, ainsi que la nature de la relation victime-auteur figurent également parmi les facteurs contrôlés. Ce travail établit ainsi la validité de contenu intra- et inter-études, offrant un processus systématique destiné à maximiser la comparabilité des données secondaires. Les implications de cette démarche sont illustrées avec la présentation successive d'opérationnalisations comparables et non-comparables des variables construites. Mesurant les violences envers les femmes en Suisse et aux États-Unis, ce travail compare la prévalence de plusieurs formes (menaces, violences physiques et violences sexuelles) et types de violence (violences partenaires et non-partenaires). 11 s'attache également à analyser les concepts de multivictimisation (c.-à-d. le fait de subir plusieurs formes de victimisation), victimisation répétée (c.-à.-d. le fait de subir plusieurs incidents de même forme) et revictimisation (c.-à-d. le lien entre la victimisation dans l'enfance et à l'âge adulte) dans une approche comparative - et comparable. Dans un troisième temps, cherchant à comprendre pourquoi la violence des partenaires apparaît plus fréquente aux États-Unis, tandis que les victimes de non-partenaires sont plus nombreuses en Suisse, et dans d'autres pays européens, différents facteurs associés à la victimisation sont évalués. Cette recherche participe d'une meilleure compréhension de la pertinence du contrôle des paramètres méthodologiques dans les comparaisons entre études puisqu'elle illustre, pas à pas, les contrôles imposés et leurs effets sur les données quantitatives, et surtout comment l'ignorance de ces paramètres peut conduire à des conclusions erronées, tant statistiquement que théoriquement. La conclusion replace, dans un contexte plus large, la discussion des différences et des similitudes observées quant à la prévalence des violences envers les femmes en Suisse et aux États-Unis, et intègre des recommandations quant à la pertinence et à la validité des comparaisons internationales, cela quel que soit le domaine considéré.

Outcomes from studies of Antineutrophil Cytoplasm Antibody Associated Vasculitis: a systematic review by the European League Against Rheumatism systemic vasculitis task force.

Objectives: We undertook a systematic literature review as a background to the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) recommendations for conducting clinical trials in anti-neutrophil cytoplasm antibody associated vasculitis (AAV), and to assess the quality of evidence for outcome measures in AAV. Methods: Using a systematic Medline search, we categorised the identified studies according to diagnoses. Factors affecting remission, relapse, renal function and overall survival were identified. Results: A total of 44 papers were reviewed from 502 identified by our search criteria. There was considerable inconsistency in definitions of end points. Remission rates varied from 30% to 93% in Wegener granulomatosis (WG), 75% to 89% in microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) and 81% to 91% in Churg¿Strauss syndrome (CSS). The 5-year survival for WG, MPA and CSS was 74¿91%, 45¿76% and 60¿97%. Relapse (variably defined) was common in the first 2 years but the frequency varied: 18% to 60% in WG, 8% in MPA, and 35% in CSS. The rate of renal survival in WG varied from 23% at 15 months to 23% at 120 months. Methods used to assess morbidity varied between studies. Ignoring the variations in definitions of the stage of disease, factors influencing remission, relapse, renal and overall survival included immunosuppressive therapy used, type of organ involvement, presence of ANCA, older age and male ender. Conclusions: Factors influencing remission, relapse, renal and overall survival include the type of immunosuppressive therapy used, pattern of organ involvement, presence of ANCA, older age and male gender. Methodological variations between studies highlight the need for a consensus on terminology and definitions for future conduct of clinical studies in AAV.

Reception of Walras' theory of exchange and theory of production in Russia

This paper evaluates the reception of Léon Walras' ideas in Russia before 1920. Despite an unfavourable institutional context, Walras was read by Russian economists. On the one hand, Bortkiewicz and Winiarski, who lived outside Russia and had the opportunity to meet and correspond with Walras, were first class readers and very good ambassadors for Walras' ideas, while on the other, the economists living in Russia were more selective in their readings. They restricted themselves to Walras' Elements of Pure Economics, in particular, its theory of exchange, while ignoring its theory of production. We introduce a cultural argument to explain their selective reading. JEL classification numbers: B 13, B 19.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Tuning In to Sound: Frequency-Selective Attentional Filter in Human Primary Auditory Cortex.

Cocktail parties, busy streets, and other noisy environments pose a difficult challenge to the auditory system: how to focus attention on selected sounds while ignoring others? Neurons of primary auditory cortex, many of which are sharply tuned to sound frequency, could help solve this problem by filtering selected sound information based on frequency-content. To investigate whether this occurs, we used high-resolution fMRI at 7 tesla to map the fine-scale frequency-tuning (1.5 mm isotropic resolution) of primary auditory areas A1 and R in six human participants. Then, in a selective attention experiment, participants heard low (250 Hz)- and high (4000 Hz)-frequency streams of tones presented at the same time (dual-stream) and were instructed to focus attention onto one stream versus the other, switching back and forth every 30 s. Attention to low-frequency tones enhanced neural responses within low-frequency-tuned voxels relative to high, and when attention switched the pattern quickly reversed. Thus, like a radio, human primary auditory cortex is able to tune into attended frequency channels and can switch channels on demand.

Improvement of therapeutic drug monitoring of imatinib by Bayesian prediction of trough levels. Personalized drug dosage

Aims: Plasma concentrations of imatinib differ largely between patients despite same dosage, owing to large inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. As the drug concentration at the end of the dosage interval (Cmin) correlates with treatment response and tolerability, monitoring of Cmin is suggested for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib. Due to logistic difficulties, random sampling during the dosage interval is however often performed in clinical practice, thus rendering the respective results not informative regarding Cmin values.Objectives: (I) To extrapolate randomly measured imatinib concentrations to more informative Cmin using classical Bayesian forecasting. (II) To extend the classical Bayesian method to account for correlation between PK parameters. (III) To evaluate the predictive performance of both methods.Methods: 31 paired blood samples (random and trough levels) were obtained from 19 cancer patients under imatinib. Two Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) methods were implemented: (A) a classical method ignoring correlation between PK parameters, and (B) an extended one accounting for correlation. Both methods were applied to estimate individual PK parameters, conditional on random observations and covariate-adjusted priors from a population PK model. The PK parameter estimates were used to calculate trough levels. Relative prediction errors (PE) were analyzed to evaluate accuracy (one-sample t-test) and to compare precision between the methods (F-test to compare variances).Results: Both Bayesian MAP methods allowed non-biased predictions of individual Cmin compared to observations: (A) - 7% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 4 %, p = 0.15) and (B) - 4% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 10 %, p = 0.69). Relative standard deviations of actual observations from predictions were 22% (A) and 30% (B), i.e. comparable to the intraindividual variability reported. Precision was not improved by taking into account correlation between PK parameters (p = 0.22).Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian extrapolation to maximum likelihood Cmin. Classical Bayesian estimation can be applied for TDM without the need to include correlation between PK parameters. Both methods could be adapted in the future to evaluate other individual pharmacokinetic measures correlated to clinical outcomes, such as area under the curve(AUC).

Differences in the evolutionary history of disease genes affected by dominant or recessive mutations

Background: Global analyses of human disease genes by computational methods have yielded important advances in the understanding of human diseases. Generally these studies have treated the group of disease genes uniformly, thus ignoring the type of disease-causing mutations (dominant or recessive). In this report we present a comprehensive study of the evolutionary history of autosomal disease genes separated by mode of inheritance.Results: We examine differences in protein and coding sequence conservation between dominant and recessive human disease genes. Our analysis shows that disease genes affected by dominant mutations are more conserved than those affected by recessive mutations. This could be a consequence of the fact that recessive mutations remain hidden from selection while heterozygous. Furthermore, we employ functional annotation analysis and investigations into disease severity to support this hypothesis. Conclusion: This study elucidates important differences between dominantly- and recessively-acting disease genes in terms of protein and DNA sequence conservation, paralogy and essentiality. We propose that the division of disease genes by mode of inheritance will enhance both understanding of the disease process and prediction of candidate disease genes in the future.

Valoración del patrón sexualidad en las personas usuarias de los servicios sanitarios

Desde enfermería es necesario realizar una valoración integral del usuario de los servicios sanitarios. La persona es un ser biopsicosocial y se hace necesario una visión en su integridad. La sexualidad forma parte de nuestra vida cotidiana y es un aspecto fundamental en la vida de todos nosotros. Sin embargo, parece ser excluida por los profesionales de enfermería, cuando el usuario entra dentro del sistema de salud. Independientemente de la patología que sufra el sujeto de nuestros cuidados, la sexualidad está presente y forma parte de su vivencia personal y cotidiana. La influencia del sistema biomédico hace que muchas veces la sexualidad sea tratada desde la patogenia, obviando la valoración de una vivencia de una sexualidad saludable. La sexualidad es observada, en muchas ocasiones desde una perspectiva únicamente heterosexual, o ligada únicamente a la reproducción, negando con esta actitud la vivencia de una sexualidad a muchos de nuestros pacientes. Deberíamos ofrecer unos cuidados integrales y holísticos, pero tanto en la formación enfermera como en la práctica, en muchas ocasiones, excluimos el patrón sexualidad, convirtiéndolo así en un tema tabú.A través de un estudio cuantitativo, no experimental descriptivo y transversal se pretende conocer por qué las enfermeras y enfermeros no exploramos suficientemente el patrón de sexualidad de los usuarios y cuáles son las causas que nos impiden hacerlo. El estudio se realizará a partir de un cuestionario, distribuido entre los enfermeros y enfermeras de los diferentes servicios sanitarios del parc de salut mar.

The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

Trends over time of virological and immunological characteristics in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcome of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not assessed in controlled trials. We aimed to analyse trends in the population effectiveness of ART in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study over the last decade. METHODS: We analysed the odds of stably suppressed viral load (ssVL: three consecutive values <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) and of CD4 cell count exceeding 500 cells/μL for each year between 2000 and 2008 in three scenarios: an open cohort; a closed cohort ignoring the influx of new participants after 2000; and a worst-case closed cohort retaining lost or dead patients as virological failures in subsequent years. We used generalized estimating equations with sex, age, risk, non-White ethnicity and era of starting combination ART (cART) as fixed co-factors. Time-updated co-factors included type of ART regimen, number of new drugs and adherence to therapy. RESULTS: The open cohort included 9802 individuals (median age 38 years; 31% female). From 2000 to 2008, the proportion of participants with ssVL increased from 37 to 64% [adjusted odds ratio (OR) per year 1.16 (95% CI 1.15-1.17)] and the proportion with CD4 count >500 cells/μL increased from 40 to >50% [OR 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.07)]. Similar trends were seen in the two closed cohorts. Adjustment did not substantially affect time trends. CONCLUSIONS: There was no relevant dilution effect through new participants entering the open clinical cohort, and the increase in virological/immunological success over time was not an artefact of the study design of open cohorts. This can partly be explained by new treatment options and other improvements in medical care.

Brain dysfunctions, psychopathologies, and body image distortions

The major features in eating disorders are a preoccupation with food and its consumption and body dissatisfaction. Diagnostic manuals provide clusters of criteria according to which affected individuals can be categorized into one or other group of eating disorder. Yet, when considering the high proportion of comorbidities and ignoring the content of the symptoms (food, body), the major features seem to yield obsessional-compulsive, addictive, and impulsive qualities. In the present article, we review studies from the neuroscientific literature (mainly lesion studies) on eating disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, impulse control disorder, and addiction to investigate the possibility of a wider phenotype that can be related to a common brain network. The literature localizes this network to the right frontal lobe and its connectivities. This network, when dysfunctional, might result in a behavior that favors the preoccupation with particular thoughts, behaviors, anxieties, and uncontrollable urges that are accompanied by little scope for ongoing behavioral adjustments (e.g., impulse control). We reason that this network may turn out to be equally involved in understudied mental conditions of dysfunctional body processing such as muscle dysmorphia, body dysmorphic disorder (including esthetic surgery), and xelomelia. We finally consider previous notions of a wider phenotype approach to current diagnostic practice (using DSM), such as the possibility of a model with a reduced number of diagnostic categories and primary and secondary factors, and to etiological models of mental health conditions.