Unpacking Japan's 21st century "National Conversation" : images of the future beyond the iron cage of the "Catch Up" model

How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan’s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan’s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan’s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan’s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan’s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan’s futures seen from the point of view of Japan’s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan’s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan’s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan’s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan’s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan’s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan’s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan’s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan’s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan’s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan’s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan’s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan’s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.

Comparing different explanations of the volatility trend

We analyze the puzzling behavior of the volatility of individual stock returns over the past few decades. The literature has provided many different explanations to the trend in volatility and this paper tests the viability of the different explanations. Virtually all current theoretical arguments that are provided for the trend in the average level of volatility over time lend themselves to explanations about the difference in volatility levels between firms in the cross-section. We therefore focus separately on the cross-sectional and time-series explanatory power of the different proxies. We fail to find a proxy that is able to explain both dimensions well. In particular, we find that Cao et al. [Cao, C., Simin, T.T., Zhao, J., 2008. Can growth options explain the trend in idiosyncratic risk? Review of Financial Studies 21, 2599–2633] market-to-book ratio tracks average volatility levels well, but has no cross-sectional explanatory power. On the other hand, the low-price proxy suggested by Brandt et al. [Brandt, M.W., Brav, A., Graham, J.R., Kumar, A., 2010. The idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: time trend or speculative episodes. Review of Financial Studies 23, 863–899] has much cross-sectional explanatory power, but has virtually no time-series explanatory power. We also find that the different proxies do not explain the trend in volatility in the period prior to 1995 (R-squared of virtually zero), but explain rather well the trend in volatility at the turn of the Millennium (1995–2005).

Objectifying early-number : a visual nomenclature to express mathematical domain knowledge

To address issues of divisive ideologies in the Mathematics Education community and to subsequently advance educational practice, an alternative theoretical framework and operational model is proposed which represents a consilience of constructivist learning theories whilst acknowledging the objective but improvable nature of domain knowledge. Based upon Popper’s three-world model of knowledge, the proposed theory supports the differentiation and explicit modelling of both shared domain knowledge and idiosyncratic personal understanding using a visual nomenclature. The visual nomenclature embodies Piaget’s notion of reflective abstraction and so may support an individual’s experience-based transformation of personal understanding with regards to shared domain knowledge. Using the operational model and visual nomenclature, seminal literature regarding early-number counting and addition was analysed and described. Exemplars of the resultant visual artefacts demonstrate the proposed theory’s viability as a tool with which to characterise the reflective abstraction-based organisation of a domain’s shared knowledge. Utilising such a description of knowledge, future research needs to consider the refinement of the operational model and visual nomenclature to include the analysis, description and scaffolded transformation of personal understanding. A detailed model of knowledge and understanding may then underpin the future development of educational software tools such as computer-mediated teaching and learning environments.

The Measurement of Information System Use: Preliminary Considerations

DeLone and McLean (1992, p. 16) argue that the concept of “system use” has suffered from a “too simplistic definition.” Despite decades of substantial research on system use, the concept is yet to receive strong theoretical scrutiny. Many measures of system use and the development of measures have been often idiosyncratic and lack credibility or comparability. This paper reviews various attempts at conceptualization and measurement of system use and then proposes a re-conceptualization of it as “the level of incorporation of an information system within a user’s processes.” The definition is supported with the theory of work systems, system, and Key-User-Group considerations. We then go on to develop the concept of a Functional- Interface-Point (FIP) and four dimensions of system usage: extent, the proportion of the FIPs used by the business process; frequency, the rate at which FIPs are used by the participants in the process; thoroughness, the level of use of information/functionality provided by the system at an FIP; and attitude towards use, a set of measures that assess the level of comfort, degree of respect and the challenges set forth by the system. The paper argues that the automation level, the proportion of the business process encoded by the information system has a mediating impact on system use. The article concludes with a discussion of some implications of this re-conceptualization and areas for follow on research.

Finitude (Mallee:Time)

An interactive installation with full body interface, digital projection, multi-touch sensitive screen surfaces, interactive 3D gaming software, motorised dioramas, 4.1 spatial sound & new furniture forms - investigating the cultural dimensions of sustainability through the lens of 'time'. “Time is change, time is finitude. Humans are a finite species. Every decision we make today brings that end closer, or alternatively pushes it further away. Nothing can be neutral”. Tony Fry DETAILS: Finitude (Mallee:Time) is a major new media/sculptural hybrid work premiered in 2011 in version 1 at the Ka-rama Motel for the Mildura Palimpsest #8 ('Collaborators and Saboteurs'). Each participant/viewer lies comfortably on their back on the double bed of Room 22. Directly above them, supported by a wooden structure, not unlike a house frame, is a semi-transparent Perspex screen that displays projected 3D imagery and is simultaneously sensitive to the lightest of finger touches. Depending upon the ever changing qualities of the projected image on this screen the participant can see through its surface to a series of physical dioramas suspended above, lit by subtle LED spotlighting. This diorama consists of a slowly rotating series of physical environments, which also include several animatronic components, allowing the realtime composition of whimsical ‘landscapes’ of both 'real' and 'virtual' media. Through subtle, non-didactic touch-sensitive interactivity the participant then has influence over both the 3D graphic imagery, the physical movements of the diorama and the 4.1 immersive soundscape, creating an uncanny blend of physical and virtual media. Five speakers positioned around the room deliver a rich interactive soundscape that responds both audibly and physically to interactions. VERSION 1, CONTEXT/THEORY: Finitude (Mallee: Time) is Version 1 of a series of presentations during 2012-14. This version has been inspired through a series of recent visits and residencies in the SW Victoria Mallee country. Further drawing on recent writings by post colonial author Paul Carter, the work is envisaged as an evolving ‘personal topography’ of place-discovery. By contrasting and melding readily available generalisations of the Mallee regions’ rational surfaces, climatic maps and ecological systems with what Carter calls “a fine capillary system of interconnected words, places, memories and sensations” generated through my own idiosyncratic research processes, Finitude (Mallee Time) invokes a “dark writing” of place through outside eyes - an approach that avoids concentration upon what 'everyone else knows', to instead imagine and develop a sense how things might be. This basis in re-imagining and re-invention becomes the vehicle for the work’s more fundamental intention - as a meditative re-imagination of 'time' (and region) as finite resources: Towards this end, every object, process and idea in the work is re-thought as having its own ‘time component’ or ‘residue’ that becomes deposited into our 'collective future'. Thought this way Finitude (Mallee Time) suggests the poverty of predominant images of time as ‘mechanism’ to instead envisage time as a plastic cyclical medium that we can each choose to ‘give to’ or ‘take away from’ our future. Put another way - time has become finitude.

Impacts of experimental warming and fire on phenology of subalpine open-heath species

The present study examined experimentally the phenological responses of a range of plant species to rises in temperature. We used the climate-change field protocol of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), which measures plant responses to warming of 1 to 2°C inside small open-topped chambers. The field study was established on the Bogong High Plains, Australia, in subalpine open heathlands; the most common treeless plant community on the Bogong High Plains. The study included areas burnt by fire in 2003, and therefore considers the interactive effects of warming and fire, which have rarely been studied in high mountain environments. From November 2003 to March 2006, various phenological phases were monitored inside and outside chambers during the snow-free periods. Warming resulted in earlier occurrence of key phenological events in 7 of the 14 species studied. Burning altered phenology in 9 of 10 species studied, with both earlier and later phenological changes depending on the species. There were no common phenological responses to warming or burning among species of the same family, growth form or flowering type (i.e. early or late-flowering species), when all phenological events were examined. The proportion of plants that formed flower buds was influenced by fire in half of the species studied. The findings support previous findings of ITEX and other warming experiments; that is, species respond individualistically to experimental warming. The inter-year variation in phenological response, the idiosyncratic nature of the responses to experimental warming among species, and an inherent resilience to fire, may result in community resilience to short-term climate change. In the first 3 years of experimental warming, phenological responses do not appear to be driving community-level change. Our findings emphasise the value of examining multiple species in climate-change studies.

Johnno

The field of research was internationally-oriented contemporary theatre practice. The research challenge was to adapt an iconic Queensland novel – David Malouf’s Johnno - to the stage in a way that would engage, resonate with and be relevant to national and international audiences. This project represented an international collaboration between La Boite Theatre Company, the Derby Playhouse, UK, and the Brisbane Festival. It was the first time that an English and an Australian company had collaborated in such a way, sharing both creative vision and financial costs and providing performances on both continents. The production was well received in both countries, suggesting that a culturally idiosyncratic work such as Johnno can be created that can fulfil not only the needs of the localised audience but also have broad global cultural resonance. The work was performed at the Brisbane Festival and the Derby Playhouse. In Brisbane, it was performed at the Brisbane Powerhouse as the signature work of the 2006 festival, with 30 performances, receiving favourable national reviews and achieving 90% box office. In the UK, it was performed at the Derby Playhouse for 22 performances, once again to favourable national reviews and 60% audiences, a good result for a new work in a regional theatre in the UK. The success of Johnno was also in the power of the collaboration between the three creative companies involved in the work.

A practical approach for identifying expected solution performance and robustness in operations research applications

A practical approach for identifying solution robustness is proposed for situations where parameters are uncertain. The approach is based upon the interpretation of a probability density function (pdf) and the definition of three parameters that describe how significant changes in the performance of a solution are deemed to be. The pdf is constructed by interpreting the results of simulations. A minimum number of simulations are achieved by updating the mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis of the sample using computationally efficient recursive equations. When these criterions have converged then no further simulations are needed. A case study involving several no-intermediate storage flow shop scheduling problems demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach.

Stability and convergence of implicit numerical methods for a class of fractional advection-dispersion models

In this paper, a class of fractional advection-dispersion models (FADM) is investigated. These models include five fractional advection-dispersion models: the immobile, mobile/immobile time FADM with a temporal fractional derivative 0 < γ < 1, the space FADM with skewness, both the time and space FADM and the time fractional advection-diffusion-wave model with damping with index 1 < γ < 2. They describe nonlocal dependence on either time or space, or both, to explain the development of anomalous dispersion. These equations can be used to simulate regional-scale anomalous dispersion with heavy tails, for example, the solute transport in watershed catchments and rivers. We propose computationally effective implicit numerical methods for these FADM. The stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods are analyzed and compared systematically. Finally, some results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our theoretical analysis.

Not a dirty word : arts entrepreneurship and higher education

While the majority of creative, performing, and literary artists are self-employed, relatively few tertiary arts schools attempt to develop capabilities for venture creation and management (and entrepreneurship more broadly) and still fewer do so effectively. This article asks why this is the case. It addresses underlying conceptual and philosophical issues encountered by arts educators, arguing that in all three senses of the term: new venture creation; career self-management; and being enterprising, entrepreneurship is essential to career success in the arts. However, the practice of entrepreneurship in the arts is significantly different from the practice of entrepreneurship in business, in terms of the artist’s drivers and aims, as well as the nature of entrepreneurial opportunities, contexts and processes. These differences mean that entrepreneurship curricula cannot simply be imported from Business schools. This article also examines the arts-idiosyncratic challenge of negotiating distinctive and potentially conflicting entrepreneurial aims, using career identity theory. It concludes by suggesting strategies by which adaptive entrepreneurial artist identities can be developed through higher education programs.

One size fits one : customizing work through manager-employee exchange

While prior research has addressed how collective workplace outcomes are negotiated between employers and trade unions, less attention has been afforded to the ‘everyday’, micro-level exchanges between managers and employees in adjusting work, alongside the ‘standard’ terms and conditions set out in employment contracts. Building on previous work on idiosyncratic deals and requests for flexible scheduling, this article presents the findings from a survey of Australian parents which addressed manager-employee exchanges which led to customized work arrangements. The survey examined the frequency with which various employment terms and conditions were negotiated, who initiated the interactions, where they occurred, and the extent of perceived compromise. The study revealed that manager-employee exchanges occur frequently in the context of roles in nuclear and extended families, and are influenced by the parameters around which formal childcare and educational settings function. Women rated the exchanges as more important than men, but men and women were similarly comfortable with the interactions and satisfied with outcomes. The findings have important implications for managers and organizations in terms of balancing the goals of efficiency with employees’ preferences for workplace flexibility and other terms beyond those which are standardized.

Student feedback systems in higher education: a focused literature review and environmental scan

In recent times, higher education institutions have paid increasing attention to the views of students to obtain feedback on their experience of learning and teaching through internal surveys. This article reviews research in the field and reports on practices in other Australian universities. Findings demonstrate that while student feedback is valued and used by all Australian universities, survey practices are idiosyncratic and in the majority of cases, questionnaires lack validity and reliability; data are used inadequately or inappropriately; and they offer limited potential for cross-sector benchmarking. The study confirms the need for institutions to develop an overarching framework for evaluation in which a valid, reliable, multidimensional and useful student feedback survey constitutes just one part. Given external expectations and internal requirements to collect feedback from students on their experience of learning and teaching, the pursuit of sound evaluation practices will continue to be of interest at local, national and international levels.

Signal patterns of piston slap of a four-cylinder diesel engine

This paper presents an experimental study on the vibration signal patterns associated with a simulated piston slap test of a four-cylinder diesel engine. It is found that a simulated worn-off piston results in an increase in vibration RMS peak amplitudes associated with the major mechanical events of the corresponding cylinder (i.e., inlet and exhaust valve closing and combustion of Cylinder 1). This then led to an increase of overall vibration amplitude of the time domain statistical features such as RMS, Crest Factor, Skewness and Kurtosis in all loading conditions. The simulated worn-off piston not only increased the impact amplitude of piston slap during the engine combustion, it also produced a distinct impulse response during the air induction stroke of the cylinder attributing to an increase of lateral impact force as a result of piston reciprocating motion and the increased clearance between the worn-off piston and the cylinder. The unique signal patterns of piston slap disclosed in this paper can be utilized to assist in the development of condition monitoring tools for automated diagnosis of similar diesel engine faults in practical applications.

Economic growth and inequality patterns in the presence of costly technology adoption and uncertainty

We develop a stochastic endogenous growth model to explain the diversity in growth and inequality patterns and the non-convergence of incomes in transitional economies where an underdeveloped financial sector imposes an implicit, fixed cost on the diversification of idiosyncratic risk. In the model endogenous growth occurs through physical and human capital deepening, with the latter being the more dominant element. We interpret the fixed cost as a ‘learning by doing’ cost for entrepreneurs who undertake risk in the absence of well developed financial markets and institutions that help diversify such risk. As such, this cost may be interpreted as the implicit returns foregone due to the lack of diversification opportunities that would otherwise have been available, had such institutions been present. The analytical and numerical results of the model suggest three growth outcomes depending on the productivity differences between the projects and the fixed cost associated with the more productive project. We label these outcomes as poverty trap, dual economy and balanced growth. Further analysis of these three outcomes highlights the existence of a diversity within diversity. Specifically, within the ‘poverty trap’ and ‘dual economy’ scenarios growth and inequality patterns differ, depending on the initial conditions. This additional diversity allows the model to capture a richer range of outcomes that are consistent with the empirical experience of several transitional economies.