878 resultados para Human-induced Loads
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Climate change impact on a groundwater-dependent small urban town has been investigated in the semiarid hard rock aquifer in southern India. A distributed groundwater model was used to simulate the groundwater levels in the study region for the projected future rainfall (2012-32) obtained from a general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the impacts of climate change and management practices on groundwater system. Management practices were based on the human-induced changes on the urban infrastructure such as reduced recharge from the lakes, reduced recharge from water and wastewater utility due to an operational and functioning underground drainage system, and additional water extracted by the water utility for domestic purposes. An assessment of impacts on the groundwater levels was carried out by calibrating a groundwater model using comprehensive data gathered during the period 2008-11 and then simulating the future groundwater level changes using rainfall from six GCMs Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model, version 3.0 (INM-CM. 3.0); L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL-CM4); Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 3.2 (MIROC3.2); ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G); Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3); and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 1 (HadGEM1)] that were found to show good correlation to the historical rainfall in the study area. The model results for the present condition indicate that the annual average discharge (sum of pumping and natural groundwater outflow) was marginally or moderately higher at various locations than the recharge and further the recharge is aided from the recharge from the lakes. Model simulations showed that groundwater levels were vulnerable to the GCM rainfall and a scenario of moderate reduction in recharge from lakes. Hence, it is important to sustain the induced recharge from lakes by ensuring that sufficient runoff water flows to these lakes.
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Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere has been increasing rapidly during the last century due to ever increasing anthropogenic activities resulting in significant increases in the temperature of the Earth causing global warming. Major sources of GHG are forests (due to human induced land cover changes leading to deforestation), power generation (burning of fossil fuels), transportation (burning fossil fuel), agriculture (livestock, farming, rice cultivation and burning of crop residues), water bodies (wetlands), industry and urban activities (building, construction, transport, solid and liquid waste). Aggregation of GHG (CO2 and non-CO2 gases), in terms of Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO(2)e), indicate the GHG footprint. GHG footprint is thus a measure of the impact of human activities on the environment in terms of the amount of greenhouse gases produced. This study focuses on accounting of the amount of three important greenhouses gases namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and thereby developing GHG footprint of the major cities in India. National GHG inventories have been used for quantification of sector-wise greenhouse gas emissions. Country specific emission factors are used where all the emission factors are available. Default emission factors from IPCC guidelines are used when there are no country specific emission factors. Emission of each greenhouse gas is estimated by multiplying fuel consumption by the corresponding emission factor. The current study estimates GHG footprint or GHG emissions (in terms of CO2 equivalent) for Indian major cities and explores the linkages with the population and GDP. GHG footprint (Aggregation of Carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of GHG's) of Delhi, Greater Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Greater Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad are found to be 38,633.2 Gg, 22,783.08 Gg, 14,812.10 Gg, 22,090.55 Gg, 19,796.5 Gg, 13,734.59 Gg and 91,24.45 Gg CO2 eq., respectively. The major contributors sectors are transportation sector (contributing 32%, 17.4%, 13.3%, 19.5%, 43.5%, 56.86% and 25%), domestic sector (contributing 30.26%, 37.2%, 42.78%, 39%, 21.6%, 17.05% and 27.9%) and industrial sector (contributing 7.9%, 7.9%, 17.66%, 20.25%, 1231%, 11.38% and 22.41%) of the total emissions in Delhi, Greater Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Greater Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad, respectively. Chennai emits 4.79 t of CO2 equivalent emissions per capita, the highest among all the cities followed by Kolkata which emits 3.29 t of CO2 equivalent emissions per capita. Also Chennai emits the highest CO2 equivalent emissions per GDP (2.55 t CO2 eq./Lakh Rs.) followed by Greater Bangalore which emits 2.18 t CO2 eq./Lakh Rs. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.
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283 p. : graf., map.
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Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)
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Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)
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Since the early years of the 21st century, and in particular since 2007, the U.S. has been awakening rapidly to the fact that climate change is underway and that even if stringent efforts are undertaken to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation to the unavoidable impacts from the existing commitment to climate change is still needed and needs to be begun now. This report provides an historical overview of the public, political, and scientific concern with adaptation in the United States. It begins by briefly distinguishing ongoing, historical adaptation to environmental circumstances from deliberate adaptation to human‐induced climate change. It then describes the shift from the early concerns with climate change and adaptation to the more recent awakening to the need for a comprehensive approach to managing the risks from climate change. Ranging from the treatment of the topic in the news media to the drafting of bills in Congress, to state and local government activities with considerable engagement of NGOs, scientists and consultants, it is apparent that adaptation has finally, and explosively, emerged on the political agenda as a legitimate and needed subject for debate. At the same time, the current policy rush is not underlain by widespread public engagement and mobilization nor does it rest on a solid research foundation. Funding for vulnerability and adaptation research, establishing adequate decision support institutions, as well as the building of the necessary capacity in science, the consulting world, and in government agencies, lags far behind the need. (PDF contains 42 pages)
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[EUS] Artikulu honek, argitaratutako bibliografiaren bidez, Zeelanda Berriko ibai-terrazen garapenari eragiten dieten agente morfogenetikoak aztertzen ditu. Erreferentzia gisa Ipar Irlako 4 kasu eta Hego Irlako 3 kasu erabili dira. Oro har, ibai-terrazak sortzeko orduan, klima, sedimentuen erabilgarritasunan eta prezipitazioan duen eraginaren bitartez, eragile nagusiena da. Altxaketa tektonikoak forma hauen kontserbazioa eragiten du. Hainbat kasutan, gertaera asaldatzaileen ondorioz sortutako sedimentu kopuru handiek, fase morfogenetiko desberdinak eragin dituzte lokal/erregional mailan, nazional/kontinental mailan beharrean. Gertaera asaldatzaileen artean, besteak beste, ekarpen bolkaniko naturalak eta gizakiok bultzatutako lur erabilera aldaketen ondorioz sortutako sedimentu ekarpenak barneratzen dira.
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In addition to providing vital ecological services, coastal areas of North Carolina provide prized areas for habitation, recreation, and commercial fisheries. However, from a management perspective, the coasts of North Carolina are highly variable and complex. In-water constituents such as nutrients, suspended sediments, and chlorophyll a concentration can vary significantly over a broad spectrum of time and space scales. Rapid growth and land-use change continue to exert pressure on coastal lands. Coastal environments are also very vulnerable to short-term (e.g., hurricanes) and long-term (e.g., sea-level rise) natural changes that can result in significant loss of life, economic loss, or changes in coastal ecosystem functioning. Hence, the dynamic nature, effects of human-induced change over time, and vulnerability of coastal areas make it difficult to effectively monitor and manage these important state and national resources using traditional data collection technologies such as discrete monitoring stations and field surveys. In general, these approaches provide only a sparse network of data over limited time and space scales and generally are expensive and labor-intensive. Products derived from spectral images obtained by remote sensing instruments provide a unique vantage point from which to examine the dynamic nature of coastal environments. A primary advantage of remote sensing is that the altitude of observation provides a large-scale synoptic view relative to traditional field measurements. Equally important, the use of remote sensing for a broad range of research and environmental applications is now common due to major advances in data availability, data transfer, and computer technologies. To facilitate the widespread use of remote sensing products in North Carolina, the UNC Coastal Studies Institute (UNC-CSI) is developing the capability to acquire, process, and analyze remotely sensed data from several remote sensing instruments. In particular, UNC-CSI is developing regional remote sensing algorithms to examine the mobilization, transport, transformation, and fate of materials between coupled terrestrial and coastal ocean systems. To illustrate this work, we present the basic principles of remote sensing of coastal waters in the context of deriving information that supports efficient and effective management of coastal resources. (PDF contains 4 pages)
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A Floresta Tropical Atlântica apresenta uma enorme biodiversidade, e está atualmente sujeita a inúmeras pressões como a perda de área pela intensa ocupação humana, agricultura, pecuária, urbanização e industrialização. Esses impactos têm provocado desmatamento e fragmentação florestal, processos que interferem na manutenção das populações animais, inclusive afetando os ciclos silvestres de parasitas e microorganismos. Didelphis aurita é um marsupial da Mata Atlântica com alta capacidade adaptativa a ambientes perturbados. Esta espécie onívora é tolerante à fragmentação florestal, podendo sobreviver em ambientes silvestres, rurais, suburbanos e urbanos, tendo importância na conexão dos ciclos silvestres e urbanos de diversos agentes. Este trabalho teve por objetivo descrever aspectos hematológicos, bioquímicos e de hemoparasitas em Didelphis aurita de duas áreas da Serra dos Órgãos/ RJ, uma área fragmentada e outra de mata contínua. Entre julho de 2011 e fevereiro de 2012 foram capturados 61 animais que tiveram amostras de sangue avaliadas. Os resultados expressos como média desvio padrão foram: Volume Globular 38,66 % ( 4,97); Hemácias 5,40 ( 0,75) x106/mm3; Hemoglobina 12,78 ( 1,68) g/dL; VGM 71,69 ( 3,56) fl; CHGM 33,01 ( 0,63) %; Plaquetas 514,70 ( 323,10) x 103/mm3; Leucócitos 19.678,52 ( 10.152,26)/mm3; Basófilos 0,59 ( 0,72) %; Eosinófilos 13,79 ( 6,94)%; Bastonetes 0,77 ( 2,04) %; Segmentados 41,12 ( 13,95) %; Linfócitos 41,97 ( 12,97) %; Monócitos 1,75 ( 1,51)%. Para parâmetros bioquímicos encontramos os seguintes resultados: Proteínas totais 8,50 ( 1,68); albumina 3,03 ( 0,69); globulina 5,44 ( 1,66); uréia 83,57 ( 20,11); creatinina 0,44 ( 0,13); ALT 85,01 ( 65,65); AST 314,55 ( 130,58); FA 420,38 ( 371,89); GGT 19,40 ( 8,51). Os parâmetros hematócrito, hemoglobina, hematimetria, ALT, AST e FA foram maiores nos machos do que nas fêmeas. Adultos apresentaram valores de proteína plasmática total, leucócitos, hematócrito, hemoglobina, hematimetria, albumina, proteínas totais, creatinina e GGT maiores do que jovens, e o inverso ocorreu para plaquetas, globulina e FA. Animais do Fragmento apresentaram valores de massa corporal e albumina menores do que os do Garrafão, e o inverso ocorreu para GGT e globulina. Babesiasp. ocorreu em 26,6% da população, sendo mais freqüente em adultos. Estes resultados são os primeiros parâmetros de referência para Didelphis aurita na Serra dos Órgãos, contribuindo para o estudo desta espécie.
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In March-April 2004, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and State of Florida (FL) conducted a study to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) portion of the U.S. continental shelf and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to West Palm Beach, Florida and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). Conditions of these offshore waters are compared to those of southeastern estuaries, based on data from similar EMAP/NCA surveys conducted in 2000-2004 by EPA, NOAA, and partnering southeastern states (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) (NCA database for estuaries, EPA Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze FL). Data from a total of 747 estuarine stations are included in this database. As for the offshore sites, the estuarine samples were collected using standard methods and indicators applied in previous coastal EMAP/NCA surveys including the probabilistic sampling design and multiple indicators of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthos and fish). The majority of the SAB had high levels of DO in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of "good" water quality. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at all sites throughout the coastal-ocean survey area and in 76% of estuarine waters. Twenty-one percent of estuarine bottom waters had moderate levels of DO between 2 and 5 mg L-1 and 3% had DO levels below 2 mg L-1. The majority of sites with DO in the low range considered to be hypoxic (< 2 mg L-1) occurred in North Carolina estuaries. There also was a notable concentration of stations with moderate DO levels (2 – 5 mg L-1) in Georgia and South Carolina estuaries. Approximately 58% of the estuarine area had moderate levels of chlorophyll a (5-10 μg L-1) and about 8% of the area had higher levels, in excess of 10 μg L-1, indicative of eutrophication. The elevated chlorophyll a levels appeared to be widespread throughout the estuaries of the region. In contrast, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of chlorophyll a with 100% of the offshore survey area having values < 5 μg L-1.
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Nutrient overenrichment from human activities is one of the major stresses affecting coastal ecosystems. There is increasing concern in many areas around the world that an oversupply of nutrients from multiple sources is having pervasive ecological effects on shallow coastal and estuarine areas. These effects include reduced light penetration, loss of aquatic habitat, harmfid algal blooms, a decrease in dissolved oxygen (or hypoxia), and impacts on living resources. The largest zone of oxygen-depleted coastal waters in the United States, and the entire western Atlantic Ocean, is found in the northern Gulf of Mexico on the Louisiana-Texas continental shelf. This zone is influenced by the freshwater discharge and nutrient flux of the Mississippi River system. This report describes the seasonal, interannual, and long-term variability in hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico and its relationship to nutrient loading. It also documents the relative roles of natural and human-induced factors in determining the size and duration of the hypoxic zone.
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A study was initiated with field work in May 2007 to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida, focusing on soft-bottom habitats, and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Anclote Key on the western coast of Florida to West Palm Beach on the eastern coast of Florida, inclusive of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). The study was conducted through a large cooperative effort by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), EPA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, FKNMS, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). The majority of the South Florida shelf had high levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of “good” water quality.. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at 98.8% throughout the coastal-ocean survey area. Only 1.2% of the region had moderate DO levels (2-5 mg/L) and no part of the survey area had DO <2.0 mg/L. In addition, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of total suspended solids (TSS), nutrients, and chlorophyll a indicative of oligotrophic conditions. Results suggested good sediment quality as well. Sediments throughout the region, which ranged from sands to intermediate muddy sands, had low levels of total organic carbon (TOC) below bioeffect guidelines for benthic organisms. Chemical contaminants in sediments were also mostly at low, background levels. For example, none of the stations had chemicals in excess of corresponding Effects-Range Median (ERM) probable bioeffect values or more than one chemical in excess of lower-threshold Effects-Range Low (ERL) values. Cadmium was the only chemical that occurred at moderate concentrations between corresponding ERL and ERM values. Sixty fish samples from 28 stations were collected and analyzed for chemical contaminants. Eleven of these samples (39% of sites) had moderate levels of contaminants, between lower and upper non-cancer human-health thresholds, and ten (36% of sites) had high levels of contaminants above the upper threshold.
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The Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) is located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico approximately 180 km south of Galveston, Texas. The sanctuary’s distance from shore combined with its depth (the coral caps reach to within approximately 17 m of the surface) result in limited exposure of this coral reef ecosystem to natural and human-induced impacts compared to other coral reefs of the western Atlantic. In spite of this, the sanctuary still confronts serious impacts including hurricanes events, recent outbreaks of coral disease, an increase in the frequency of coral bleaching and the massive Diadema antillarum die-off during the mid-1980s. Anthropogenic impacts include large vessel anchoring, commercial and recreational fishing, recreational scuba diving, and oil and gas related activities. The FGBNMS was designated in 1992 to help protect against some of these impacts. Basic monitoring and research efforts have been conducted on the banks since the 1970s. Early on, these efforts focused primarily on describing the benthic communities (corals, sponges) and providing qualitative characterizations of the fish community. Subsequently, more quantitative work has been conducted; however, it has been limited in spatial scope. To complement these efforts, the current study addresses the following two goals put forth by sanctuary management: 1) to develop a sampling design for monitoring benthic fish communities across the coral caps; and 2) to obtain a spatial and quantitative characterization of those communities and their associated habitats.