Modelos de resposta à interação entre fármacos anestésicos : análise de regressão e análise de Clusters

Os avanços tecnológicos e científicos, na área da saúde, têm vindo a aliar áreas como a Medicina e a Matemática, cabendo à ciência adequar de forma mais eficaz os meios de investigação, diagnóstico, monitorização e terapêutica. Os métodos desenvolvidos e os estudos apresentados nesta dissertação resultam da necessidade de encontrar respostas e soluções para os diferentes desafios identificados na área da anestesia. A índole destes problemas conduz, necessariamente, à aplicação, adaptação e conjugação de diferentes métodos e modelos das diversas áreas da matemática. A capacidade para induzir a anestesia em pacientes, de forma segura e confiável, conduz a uma enorme variedade de situações que devem ser levadas em conta, exigindo, por isso, intensivos estudos. Assim, métodos e modelos de previsão, que permitam uma melhor personalização da dosagem a administrar ao paciente e por monitorizar, o efeito induzido pela administração de cada fármaco, com sinais mais fiáveis, são fundamentais para a investigação e progresso neste campo. Neste contexto, com o objetivo de clarificar a utilização em estudos na área da anestesia de um ajustado tratamento estatístico, proponho-me abordar diferentes análises estatísticas para desenvolver um modelo de previsão sobre a resposta cerebral a dois fármacos durante sedação. Dados obtidos de voluntários serão utilizados para estudar a interação farmacodinâmica entre dois fármacos anestésicos. Numa primeira fase são explorados modelos de regressão lineares que permitam modelar o efeito dos fármacos no sinal cerebral BIS (índice bispectral do EEG – indicador da profundidade de anestesia); ou seja estimar o efeito que as concentrações de fármacos têm na depressão do eletroencefalograma (avaliada pelo BIS). Na segunda fase deste trabalho, pretende-se a identificação de diferentes interações com Análise de Clusters bem como a validação do respetivo modelo com Análise Discriminante, identificando grupos homogéneos na amostra obtida através das técnicas de agrupamento. O número de grupos existentes na amostra foi, numa fase exploratória, obtido pelas técnicas de agrupamento hierárquicas, e a caracterização dos grupos identificados foi obtida pelas técnicas de agrupamento k-means. A reprodutibilidade dos modelos de agrupamento obtidos foi testada através da análise discriminante. As principais conclusões apontam que o teste de significância da equação de Regressão Linear indicou que o modelo é altamente significativo. As variáveis propofol e remifentanil influenciam significativamente o BIS e o modelo melhora com a inclusão do remifentanil. Este trabalho demonstra ainda ser possível construir um modelo que permite agrupar as concentrações dos fármacos, com base no efeito no sinal cerebral BIS, com o apoio de técnicas de agrupamento e discriminantes. Os resultados desmontram claramente a interacção farmacodinâmica dos dois fármacos, quando analisamos o Cluster 1 e o Cluster 3. Para concentrações semelhantes de propofol o efeito no BIS é claramente diferente dependendo da grandeza da concentração de remifentanil. Em suma, o estudo demostra claramente, que quando o remifentanil é administrado com o propofol (um hipnótico) o efeito deste último é potenciado, levando o sinal BIS a valores bastante baixos.

Data mining techniques to support the classification of MV electricity customers

This paper describes a methodology that was developed for the classification of Medium Voltage (MV) electricity customers. Starting from a sample of data bases, resulting from a monitoring campaign, Data Mining (DM) techniques are used in order to discover a set of a MV consumer typical load profile and, therefore, to extract knowledge regarding to the electric energy consumption patterns. In first stage, it was applied several hierarchical clustering algorithms and compared the clustering performance among them using adequacy measures. In second stage, a classification model was developed in order to allow classifying new consumers in one of the obtained clusters that had resulted from the previously process. Finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge are presented and discussed.

Modélisation statistique de l’érosion de cavitation d’une turbine hydraulique selon les paramètres d’opération

Dans une turbine hydraulique, la rotation des aubes dans l’eau crée une zone de basse pression, amenant l’eau à passer de l’état liquide à l’état gazeux. Ce phénomène de changement de phase est appelé cavitation et est similaire à l’ébullition. Lorsque les cavités de vapeur formées implosent près des parois, il en résulte une érosion sévère des matériaux, accélérant de façon importante la dégradation de la turbine. Un système de détection de l’érosion de cavitation à l’aide de mesures vibratoires, employable sur les turbines en opération, a donc été installé sur quatre groupes turbine-alternateur d’une centrale et permet d’estimer précisément le taux d’érosion en kg/ 10 000 h. Le présent projet vise à répondre à deux objectifs principaux. Premièrement, étudier le comportement de la cavitation sur un groupe turbine-alternateur cible et construire un modèle statistique, dans le but de prédire la variable cavitation en fonction des variables opératoires (tels l’ouverture de vannage, le débit, les niveaux amont et aval, etc.). Deuxièmement, élaborer une méthodologie permettant la reproductibilité de l’étude à d’autres sites. Une étude rétrospective sera effectuée et on se concentrera sur les données disponibles depuis la mise à jour du système en 2010. Des résultats préliminaires ont mis en évidence l’hétérogénéité du comportement de cavitation ainsi que des changements entre la relation entre la cavitation et diverses variables opératoires. Nous nous proposons de développer un modèle probabiliste adapté, en utilisant notamment le regroupement hiérarchique et des modèles de régression linéaire multiple.

Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts and the EM Algorithm

We present a tree-structured architecture for supervised learning. The statistical model underlying the architecture is a hierarchical mixture model in which both the mixture coefficients and the mixture components are generalized linear models (GLIM's). Learning is treated as a maximum likelihood problem; in particular, we present an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for adjusting the parameters of the architecture. We also develop an on-line learning algorithm in which the parameters are updated incrementally. Comparative simulation results are presented in the robot dynamics domain.

Modelo de segmentación : estudio, aplicación, ejecución y desarrollo de estrategias para la implementación de un modelo de clustering en el Sector Financiero

A finales de 2009 se emprendió un nuevo modelo de segmentación de mercados por conglomeraciones o clústers, con el cual se busca atender las necesidades de los clientes, advirtiendo el ciclo de vida en el cual se encuentran, realizando estrategias que mejoren la rentabilidad del negocio, por medio de indicadores de gestión KPI. Por medio de análisis tecnológico se desarrolló el proceso de inteligencia de la segmentación, por medio del cual se obtuvo el resultado de clústers, que poseían características similares entre sí, pero que diferían de los otros, en variables de comportamiento. Esto se refleja en el desarrollo de campañas estratégicas dirigidas que permitan crear una estrecha relación de fidelidad con el cliente, para aumentar la rentabilidad, en principio, y fortalecer la relación a largo plazo, respondiendo a la razón de ser del negocio

Dimensionality reduction assisted tensor clustering

This paper is concerned with tensor clustering with the assistance of dimensionality reduction approaches. A class of formulation for tensor clustering is introduced based on tensor Tucker decomposition models. In this formulation, an extra tensor mode is formed by a collection of tensors of the same dimensions and then used to assist a Tucker decomposition in order to achieve data dimensionality reduction. We design two types of clustering models for the tensors: PCA Tensor Clustering model and Non-negative Tensor Clustering model, by utilizing different regularizations. The tensor clustering can thus be solved by the optimization method based on the alternative coordinate scheme. Interestingly, our experiments show that the proposed models yield comparable or even better performance compared to most recent clustering algorithms based on matrix factorization.

Partitions selection strategy for set of clustering solutions

Clustering is a difficult task: there is no single cluster definition and the data can have more than one underlying structure. Pareto-based multi-objective genetic algorithms (e.g., MOCK Multi-Objective Clustering with automatic K-determination and MOCLE-Multi-Objective Clustering Ensemble) were proposed to tackle these problems. However, the output of such algorithms can often contains a high number of partitions, becoming difficult for an expert to manually analyze all of them. In order to deal with this problem, we present two selection strategies, which are based on the corrected Rand, to choose a subset of solutions. To test them, they are applied to the set of solutions produced by MOCK and MOCLE in the context of several datasets. The study was also extended to select a reduced set of partitions from the initial population of MOCLE. These analysis show that both versions of selection strategy proposed are very effective. They can significantly reduce the number of solutions and, at the same time, keep the quality and the diversity of the partitions in the original set of solutions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Construção de modelos multivariados para determinação de lipídios totais e unidade em leite em pó comercial utilizando espectroscopia no infravermelho próximo

In this work calibration models were constructed to determine the content of total lipids and moisture in powdered milk samples. For this, used the near-infrared spectroscopy by diffuse reflectance, combined with multivariate calibration. Initially, the spectral data were submitted to correction of multiplicative light scattering (MSC) and Savitzsky-Golay smoothing. Then, the samples were divided into subgroups by application of hierarchical clustering analysis of the classes (HCA) and Ward Linkage criterion. Thus, it became possible to build regression models by partial least squares (PLS) that allowed the calibration and prediction of the content total lipid and moisture, based on the values obtained by the reference methods of Soxhlet and 105 ° C, respectively . Therefore, conclude that the NIR had a good performance for the quantification of samples of powdered milk, mainly by minimizing the analysis time, not destruction of the samples and not waste. Prediction models for determination of total lipids correlated (R) of 0.9955, RMSEP of 0.8952, therefore the average error between the Soxhlet and NIR was ± 0.70%, while the model prediction to content moisture correlated (R) of 0.9184, RMSEP, 0.3778 and error of ± 0.76%

Chicken skeletal muscle-associated macroarray for gene discovery

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Selecting candidate labels for hierarchical document clusters using association rules

One way to organize knowledge and make its search and retrieval easier is to create a structural representation divided by hierarchically related topics. Once this structure is built, it is necessary to find labels for each of the obtained clusters. In many cases the labels have to be built using only the terms in the documents of the collection. This paper presents the SeCLAR (Selecting Candidate Labels using Association Rules) method, which explores the use of association rules for the selection of good candidates for labels of hierarchical document clusters. The candidates are processed by a classical method to generate the labels. The idea of the proposed method is to process each parent-child relationship of the nodes as an antecedent-consequent relationship of association rules. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the precision and recall of labels obtained by classical methods. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Improving hierarchical document cluster labels through candidate term selection

One way to organize knowledge and make its search and retrieval easier is to create a structural representation divided by hierarchically related topics. Once this structure is built, it is necessary to find labels for each of the obtained clusters. In many cases the labels must be built using all the terms in the documents of the collection. This paper presents the SeCLAR method, which explores the use of association rules in the selection of good candidates for labels of hierarchical document clusters. The purpose of this method is to select a subset of terms by exploring the relationship among the terms of each document. Thus, these candidates can be processed by a classical method to generate the labels. An experimental study demonstrates the potential of the proposed approach to improve the precision and recall of labels obtained by classical methods only considering the terms which are potentially more discriminative. © 2012 - IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved.

Análise exploratória de experimentos com bovinos terminados em confinamento

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

The Ecological Basis for Biogeographic Classification: an Example in Orchid Bees (Apidae: Euglossini)

Biogeography has been difficult to apply as a methodological approach because organismic biology is incomplete at levels where the process of formulating comparisons and analogies is complex. The study of insect biogeography became necessary because insects possess numerous evolutionary traits and play an important role as pollinators. Among insects, the euglossine bees, or orchid bees, attract interest because the study of their biology allows us to explain important steps in the evolution of social behavior and many other adaptive tradeoffs. We analyzed the distribution of morphological characteristics in Colombian orchid bees from an ecological perspective. The aim of this study was to observe the distribution of these attributes on a regional basis. Data corresponding to Colombian euglossine species were ordered with a correspondence analysis and with subsequent hierarchical clustering. Later, and based on community proprieties, we compared the resulting hierarchical model with the collection localities to seek to identify a biogeographic classification pattern. From this analysis, we derived a model that classifies the territory of Colombia into 11 biogeographic units or natural clusters. Ecological assumptions in concordance with the derived classification levels suggest that species characteristics associated with flight performance, nectar uptake, and social behavior are the factors that served to produce the current geographical structure.

Identification of protein expression signatures in gastric carcinomas using clustering analysis

Background and Aim: The identification of gastric carcinomas (GC) has traditionally been based on histomorphology. Recently, DNA microarrays have successfully been used to identify tumors through clustering of the expression profiles. Random forest clustering is widely used for tissue microarrays and other immunohistochemical data, because it handles highly-skewed tumor marker expressions well, and weighs the contribution of each marker according to its relatedness with other tumor markers. In the present study, we e identified biologically- and clinically-meaningful groups of GC by hierarchical clustering analysis of immunohistochemical protein expression. Methods: We selected 28 proteins (p16, p27, p21, cyclin D1, cyclin A, cyclin B1, pRb, p53, c-met, c-erbB-2, vascular endothelial growth factor, transforming growth factor [TGF]-beta I, TGF-beta II, MutS homolog-2, bcl-2, bax, bak, bcl-x, adenomatous polyposis coli, clathrin, E-cadherin, beta-catenin, mucin (MUC) 1, MUC2, MUC5AC, MUC6, matrix metalloproteinase [ MMP]-2, and MMP-9) to be investigated by immunohistochemistry in 482 GC. The analyses of the data were done using a random forest-clustering method. Results: Proteins related to cell cycle, growth factor, cell motility, cell adhesion, apoptosis, and matrix remodeling were highly expressed in GC. We identified protein expressions associated with poor survival in diffuse-type GC. Conclusions: Based on the expression analysis of 28 proteins, we identified two groups of GC that could not be explained by any clinicopathological variables, and a subgroup of long-surviving diffuse-type GC patients with a distinct molecular profile. These results provide not only a new molecular basis for understanding the biological properties of GC, but also better prediction of survival than the classic pathological grouping.