Diseño de instrumentos para configurar una política industrial en España basada en los postulados de la economía evolutiva

La evidencia empírica aplicada a países de cierto tamaño y desarrollo económico, muestra que existe una relación directa y positiva entre la intensidad de la industria manufacturera, medida como porcentaje de su PIB, y ciertas variables económicas como, el crecimiento, el desempleo y la balanza exterior de bienes y servicios. En el caso de esta última, se verifica empíricamente, que los países con una proporción de actividad manufacturera inferior al 20%, tienen una marcada tendencia a presentar déficits crónicos de balanza de bienes y servicios, lo que conduce a persistentes déficits por cuenta corriente, al ser el primer déficit el principal componente del segundo. Esto trae consigo un continuado incremento del endeudamiento externo que no cesa, y que terminará en algún momento por desequilibrar el conjunto de la economía de los países con esos déficits crónicos. Las anteriores conclusiones, abren una vía de orientación de la política económica, que tiene como objetivo la promoción de la industria manufacturera de cada país. Y esto es un hecho ya en 2014. Países relevantes, como Alemania o Francia en la UE, incluso los EEUU y últimamente el Reino Unido, y por supuesto países del área asiática como Japón, Corea del Sur y China, llevan años promoviendo su industria manufacturera. Resulta significativo, que el debate ideológico sobre la bondad de la aplicación política industrial por parte de los gobiernos, frente a las teorías liberales de mantener a los poderes públicos lejos de ese tipo de actividades, haya dado paso a un modelo generalizado de corte más bien horizontal, donde los países casi sin excepciones apoyan el desarrollo de sus empresas con numerosos instrumentos, que van bastante más lejos de los habituales de I+D. Se valora por tanto, la industria manufacturera como algo vital para el equilibrio económico. Incluso la UE, defensora durante décadas de la no intervención de los diferentes Estados miembros en actividades de promoción industrial más allá del apoyo a las actividades de I+D, realiza un giro copernicano, que termina en 2012 proclamando que la industria manufacturera es vital para el equilibrio económico de la UE, que hay que promoverla, e incluso marca un objetivo, precisamente del 20%, como contribución manufacturera a su PIB. Es decir, se da por asumido que los servicios no son un sustituto indefinido de la industria y que por tanto tienen un límite, lo que se contrapone frontalmente contra la anterior creencia de que el aumento de la participación de los servicios en la economía, no solo era bueno, sino un síntoma de desarrollo. Esta premisa ya ha dejado de ser cierta para esos y otros países. En cambio, en España nada de esto sucede en las dos últimas décadas, sino que la industria manufacturera no recibe especial atención de los poderes públicos y se desliza en una pendiente de disminución de su contribución al PIB, que incluso se acelera con la crisis económica que comienza en 2007, hasta alcanzar cifras del orden del 12% del PIB en 2013. La política económica que se aplica es la de la deflación de costes, con los efectos consecuentes sobre los salarios y sobre la capacidad de la economía de generar riqueza. Se apuesta por un modelo de mano de obra barata, que recuerda al de los años 60. Como indicador relevante de esta situación, lo que exporta la industria manufacturera española, no ha ganado en contenido tecnológico en los últimos quince años. Esta situación se ve empeorada por un hecho significativo adicional, y es que casi el 40% de las ventas de la industria manufacturera española provienen de empresas de propiedad extranjera, con lo que eso supone por una parte de dependencia tecnológica del exterior como en el caso del automóvil, y de incertidumbre sobre su futuro, al estar basadas en el mantenimiento en el futuro de una mano de obra barata, que frenará que los españoles que trabajan en esas empresas, progresen económicamente. La propuesta de esta Tesis, es en cambio apostar por un modelo de crecimiento para España que tenga como uno de sus pilares el desarrollo de una industria manufacturera sólida y con cada vez mayor contenido tecnológico. Para ello, se propone un Plan de política industrial, donde se incluye la creación de actores impulsores de este plan, que deben ser del máximo nivel político. Si los diferentes gobiernos no entienden y asumen esta necesidad de apoyo a la industria a largo plazo e independiente de los cambios políticos, no será posible llevar a cabo este Plan. Para su puesta en marcha, se propone la creación o refuerzo de numerosos instrumentos de apoyo a la industria manufacturera de carácter fundamentalmente horizontal que van mucho más allá de los habituales del I+D, y que en varios casos, tienen una clara semejanza con otros existentes ya en otros países desarrollados desde hace años. La promoción de la industria manufacturera necesita nuevos instrumentos, como una financiación a largo plazo para las empresas, una promoción ordenada y eficaz de la actividad internacional de las empresas exportadoras, la mayoría de las cuales exportan productos manufacturados, una educación y formación profesional que esté alineada con estos objetivos, unos instrumentos que apoyen en especial el desarrollo la industria manufacturera, o la participación minoritaria pero significativa, del Estado en empresas españolas pertenecientes a sectores estratégicos entre otros. En resumen, esta Tesis propone una alternativa de política económica radicalmente diferente a la de dejar la industria manufacturera española a su suerte, y basar el futuro económico de España en una mano de obra barata. ABSTRACT The empirical evidence, applied to countries of certain size and economic development, shows that there exists a direct and positive relationship between industrial manufacturing activity, measured as a percentage of GDP, and certain economic variables, such as growth, unemployment and the foreign balance of trade. In the case of the latter, it is verified empirically that the countries with a percentage of manufacturing activity below 20% have a marked tendency for chronic deficits of the balance of trade, leading to persistent deficits in the current account, being that the former deficit is the main component of the latter. This brings about a continued increase in foreign debt that does not cease, and that will end at some point by disrupting the economy of the countries with these chronic deficits. The previous conclusions open the way to a new direction for economic policy, which promotes industrial manufacturing in each country. This is already a fact in 2014. Relevant countries, such as Germany or France in the EU, even the US and ultimately the UK, and of course countries of East Asia such as Japan, South Korea and China, have been promoting their industrial manufacturing for years. It becomes significant that the ideological debate about the goodwill of the application of industrial policy by governments, against liberal theories that maintain public powers far from these kinds of activities, has taken a step towards a horizontal-cut generalized model, where countries, with almost no exception, rely on various instruments to develop their companies that go much further than the usual R&D. Industrial manufacture is therefore valued as vital for economic stability. Even the EU, proponent for decades of non-intervention policy that goes beyond R&D, has gone full circle, ending in 2012 by proclaiming that industrial manufacture is vital for the economic stability of the EU, that it must be promoted. They even mark precisely 20% as an objective for manufacturing as a percentage of GDP. In other words, it is a given that services are not an indefinite substitute for industry, and that therefore it has a limit as such. This rejects the notion that the increase in services at the cost of manufacture is not only healthy, but is also a symptom of development. This premise is no longer true for these and other countries. On the other hand, none of this happens in Spain, where industrial manufacture receives no special attention from the public authorities, and it slides on a downward slope of percentage contribution to GDP, which accelerates the economic crisis that begins in 2007, until manufacture reaches values of around 12% of GDP in 2013. The economic policy applied is that of cost deflation, with consequential effects on wages and the capacity of the economy to generate wealth. A model is proposed for cheaper labor, akin to that of the 1960s. As a relevant indicator of this situation, manufacturing exports from Spain have not grown technologically in the last 15 years. The situation is made worse by another significant fact: almost 40% of sales of the manufacturing industry originate from companies of foreign origin, which supposes on one hand a technological dependence on foreign countries, such as in the case of the automotive industry, and on the other hand uncertainty in its future, being that they are based on maintaining cheap labor in the future, which will slow economic progress of Spaniards working in these companies. The proposition of this Thesis is to bet on a growth model for Spain that has as one of its pillars the development of a solid manufacturing industry, with increasing technological content. For this, an industrial policy plan is proposed, which includes the creation of driving agents for this plan, which must be of maximum political level. If the various governments don’t understand and assume this necessity for support of industry in the long term, independent of political change, this plan will not be accomplished. To start it, the creation or reinforcement of numerous instruments to promote the manufacturing activities are proposed, with a fundamentally horizontal nature that goes far beyond the usual R&D, and that, in several cases, have a clear similarity with others existing in other countries, having been developed for years. The promotion of the manufacturing industry needs new instruments, such as the long-term financing of companies, an orderly and efficient promotion of international activity of exporting companies, the most of which export manufactured goods, education and professional training which is in tune with these objectives, some instruments which support in particular the development of the manufacturing industry, or the minor yet significant participation of the State in Spanish companies belonging to strategic sectors, among others. In summary, this Thesis proposes an different alternative to the economic policy of leaving the manufacturing industry of Spain to its chances, and to base the economic future of Spain on a cheaper labor force.

Will the readmission agreement bring the EU and Turkey together or pull them apart? CEPS Commentary, 4 February 2014

Following a period when EU-Turkish relations have not been particularly close, the readmission agreement signed in December 2013 by the Home Affairs Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom and the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu could help inject some sorely needed goodwill and trust into the relationship. Yet, as pointed out in this commentary, there is always the risk that the challenges faced in the actual implementation of the agreement will aggravate the relationship.

The Revolution that never was. Five years of 'Orange' Ukraine. OSW Point of View (Policy Brief), November 2009

On the fifth anniversary of the Orange Revolution and in the final period of the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko, who then embodied the hopes for state reform, a tentative assessment of the situation in Ukraine is appropriate. Did the revolutionary social upheaval bear revolutionary fruit? Have democratic mechanisms strengthened? Has the post-Soviet oligarchic state model been overcome? Has media freedom expanded? Has there been any progress with regard to economic transformation? Has integration with the European structures materialised? Five years on, what remains of the hopes of millions of Ukrainians and of the goodwill of the international community?

America & Europe, and other essays,

Also published as part of the author's The prospects of democracy, and other essays, London, 1929.

The UK MPharm (2) - Do we over assess?

Introduction-The pace of structural change in the UK health economies, the new focus on regulation and the breaking down of professional boundaries means that the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (RPSGB) has to continually review the scope, range and outputs of education provided by schools of pharmacy (SOPs). In SOPs, the focus is on equipping students with the knowledge, skills and attitudes necessary to successfully engage with the pre-registration year. The aim of this study [1] was to map current programmes and undergraduate experiences to inform the RPSGB debate. The specific objectives of this paper are to describe elements of the survey of final year undergraduates, to explore student opinions and experiences of their workload, teaching, learning and assessment. Material and methods-The three main research techniques were: (1) quantitative course document review, (2) qualitative staff interview and (3) quantitative student self completion survey. The questions in the survey were based on findings from exploratory focus group work with BPSA (British Pharmaceutical Students’ Association) members and were designed to ascertain if views expressed in the focus groups on the volume and format of assessments were held by the general student cohort. The student self completion questionnaire consisting of 31 questions, was administered in 2005 to all (n=1847) final year undergraduates, using a pragmatic mixture of methods. The sample was 15 SOPs within the UK (1 SOP opted out). The total response rate was 50.62% (n=935): it varied by SOP from 14.42% to 84.62%. The survey data were analysed (n=741) using SPSS, excluding non-UK students who may have undertaken part of their studies within a non-UK university. Results and discussion • 76% (n=562) respondents considered that the amount of formal assessment was about right, 21% (n=158) thought it was too much. • There was agreement that the MPharm seems to have more assessment than other courses, with 63% (n=463) strongly agreeing or agreeing. • The majority considered the balance between examinations and coursework was about right (67%, n=498), with 27% (n=198) agreeing that the balance was too far weighted towards examinations. • 57% (n=421) agreed that the focus of MPharm assessment was too much towards memorised knowledge, 40% (n=290) that it was about right. • 78% (n= 575) agreed with the statement “Assessments don’t measure the skills for being a pharmacist they just measure your knowledge base”. Only 10% (n=77) disagreed. • Similarly 49% (n=358) disagreed with, and 35% (n=256) were not sure about the statement “I consider that the assessments used in the MPharm course adequately measure the skills necessary to be a pharmacist”. Only 17% (n=124) agreed. Experience from this study shows the difficulty of administering survey instruments through UK Schools of Pharmacy. It is heavily dependent on timing, goodwill and finding the right person. The variability of the response rate between SOPs precluded any detailed analysis by School. Nevertheless, there are some interesting results. Issues raised in the exploratory focus group work about amount of assessment and over reliance on knowledge have been confirmed. There is a real debate to be had about the extent to which the undergraduate course, which must instil scientific knowledge, can provide students with the requisite qualities, skills, attitudes and behaviour that are more easily acquired in the pre-registration year. References [1] Wilson K, Jesson J, Langley C, Clarke L, Hatfield K. MPharm Programmes: Where are we now? Report commissioned by the Pharmacy Practice Research Trust., 2005.

A gazdaságpolitikai döntéshozatal nemzetek fölötti centralizációja és a közösségi gazdaságtan. Az adóverseny elméletének néhány tanulsága (Supranational centralization of economic policy-making and community economics: some lessons from the theory of tax competition)

Mennyiben képes jelenleg a közösségi gazdaságtan az adópolitikák nemzetek fölötti centralizációjára vonatkozó politikai döntések megalapozására? Válaszunk röviden az lesz, hogy a közösségi gazdaságtan főárama - noha számos releváns gazdasági és politikai tényező hatását sikeresen elemzi - jelenleg nem kínál kielégítőnek tekinthető döntési kritériumokat a döntéshozók számára. Ennek oka, hogy központi szerepet játszik benne egy, a modellek szempontjából exogén és a közgazdasági elmélettől idegen tényező: a kormányzatok jóindulatára, pontosabban annak mértékére vonatkozó premissza. Tanulmányunk az adóverseny fiskális föderalista elméletét vizsgálja, és megpróbál általánosabb szinten is a közszektor gazdaságelméletének jelenlegi állapotára, valamint továbbfejlesztésére vonatkozó tanulságokat levonni. A kiutat az elméleti zsákutcából a kormányzati működés és döntéshozatal, valamint a kívánatos gazdaságpolitikai döntések elméletének összekapcsolása jelentheti. Erre megtörténtek az első kísérletek, de a szisztematikus és átfogó elemzés egyelőre várat magára. / === / How far can community economics provide a basis for political decision-making on supranational centralization of taxation policies? The short answer here will be that although the mainstream of community economics succeeds in analysing many relevant economic and political factors, it fails at present to provide satisfactory criteria for decisionmakers. This is because a central role is played in it by a factor exogenous to the models and alien to economic theory: the premise of the measure of goodwill from governments. The study examines the fiscal federalist theory of tax competition. It tries to draw conclusions, on a more general level, about the present state of the economic theory of the public sector and future development of it. The way out of the theoretical blind alley could be to link the theories of government operation and decision-making and of desirable economic-policy decision-making. The first attempts to do so have been made, but a systematic and comprehensive analysis is still awaited.

An investigation into advertising's ability to foster favorable evaluations of brand extensions

Taking a respected brand name and placing it on a new product has become a popular strategy for leveraging the name's equity and goodwill. Current research has indicated that the success of doing so depends in part on the perceived “fit” between the core brand and the extension. When the name is extended to a closely related product category, consumers are very likely to transfer their favorable attitudes toward the core to the extension. However, as the perceived fit declines, this transfer becomes less likely. ^ This dissertation examined whether particular advertising tactics (e.g., using a common endorser or logo for the core and the extension) could enhance perceived fit between the core brand and its extension, thus leading to more favorable attitudes toward the extension than would otherwise occur. The sample was undergraduate students from universities in the southeast. The generating mechanism tested was that the transfer of associations between core brand and extension would enhance the overlap of associations between the core brand and the potential extension. ^ Research questions were analyzed using a 3 (levels of fit) x 3 (treatments) x 2 (replicate) experiment. The data analysis was conducted with repeated measures ANOVA's, UNIVARIATE ANOVA's, UNIVARIATE ANCOVA'S, and planned linear contrasts. ^ The results, except for the hypotheses on fit as a mediator of extension attitude, do not indicate that the presence of an endorser or brand mark closely aligned with the core brand enhanced perceived fit between core brand and extension. ^

ALBA: A Political Tool for Venezuela’s Foreign Policy

Despite its founding by Hugo Chávez on the heels of the failed Free Trade Area for the Americas (FTAA) negotiations which took place November 2003, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA, as it is known for its Spanish acronym) has evolved into a political tool that uses “social power” to facilitate Venezuela‟s positioning as the leader of the anti-U.S. agenda in the region. Fostering political favors and goodwill through the financing of social development projects, ALBA has created a political environment whereby countries on the take and their respective leaders seem deterred from taking public opposing viewpoints to Chávez. To that end, it has provided billions in economic aid to several nations in Latin American and the Caribbean, winning their favor and support for its policies. To date, ALBA counts on eight member nations. Besides Venezuela, it includes Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. It also has several observer nations, among them, Grenada, Haiti, Paraguay, Uruguay, and a non-Latin American country, Syria. Throughout its recent history Venezuela has used its oil wealth to pursue political capital. Under the Chávez government it is doing so as part of a strategic effort countering the U.S. Following Cuba‟s demise in the region as the anti-American socialist camp leader, Chávez is attempting to step into Cuba‟s shoes, picking up where Cuba left off over a decade ago and has used the ALBA as a mechanism to help promote his foreign policy. Relying on its own resources, not those of the Soviet Union as Cuba once did, Venezuela has already shown its influence in the international arena, challenging U.S. positions at the Organization of American States (OAS), the United Nations, and even in matters having little if nothing to do with the region, such as Iran‟s nuclear proliferation. Taking advantage of Venezuela‟s oil prices bonanza, Chávez has been spreading economic aid throughout the region, funding several development projects. From stepping in to buy Bolivia‟s soy beans when the U.S. ceased doing so, to helping finance and construct an airport in Dominica, Venezuela‟s ALBA has provided assistance to many states in the region. As in the past, Venezuela has invested significantly both in time and money in the Caribbean, providing development assistance and oil at a discount to Haiti, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the Dominican Republic, although the latter two are neither member nor observer states of ALBA. The aid Chávez has been spreading around may be coming at a cost. It seems it has begun to cause cracks within the CARICOM community, where ALBA already counts on six of its 15 members, leading experts and leaders in the region to question traditional alliances to each other and the U.S. Yet, ALBA‟s ability to influence through aid is dependent on the Venezuelan economy. Its success hinges on continued Venezuelan oil sales at stable prices and the ability of Chávez to remain in power.

Företags potentiella manipulation av tillväxttakt i goodwillnedskrivningstestet : En kvantitativ studie av svenska och finska börsnoterade företag

Bakgrund och problem: I och med den nya standarden IAS 36 ska företagen göra uppskattningar angående den långsiktiga tillväxttakten i goodwillnedskrivningstestet. Detta innebär en möjlighet att manipulera tillväxttakten för att på så vis undvika eller framkalla nedskrivning av goodwill. Problemformulering: Hur påverkar utvalda variabler företags potentiella manipulation av angiven tillväxttakt? Syfte: Syftet med studien är att bidra med förklaringar till vad som påverkar att företag redovisar för höga respektive för låga tillväxttakter i goodwillnedskrivningstestet. Metod: Denna studie bygger på en kvantitativ metod där urvalet består av samtliga svenska och finska börsnoterade företag med redovisad goodwill. Utifrån existerade kunskap formuleras fyra hypoteser som testas mot empirin. Resultat och slutsats: Resultatet av denna studie visar inga signifikanta samband mellan den beroende variabeln manipulation och de oberoende variablerna storlek, skuldsättningsgrad, bransch och redovisningstillsyn. Den deskriptiva statistiken visar att i stort sett hälften av företagen manipulerar tillväxttakten.

Capital Intelectual e Desempenho Organizacional no Sector Farmacêutico Português

Segundo o paradigma económico vigente, os intangíveis são hoje os principais factores de produção que criam riqueza no meio empresarial, devendo ser entendidos pelos gestores como factores críticos de sucesso. O conjunto de intangíveis que criam valor organizacional e sustentam a vantagem competitiva constituem o capital intelectual. Se no meio académico, o capital intelectual é visto como um motor do desenvolvimento económico, no âmbito da sociedade do conhecimento, já no meio empresarial apesar do reconhecimento da sua importância estratégica, poucos conseguem defini-lo e identificá-lo, não sabendo mesmo como tirar proveito dele. Acresce ainda o facto de o principal entrave poder estar relacionado na dificuldade em medir e representar o valor gerado por este recurso intangível. A generalidade dos autores que se dedica ao estudo do capital intelectual sustenta a existência de uma relação entre este e o desempenho organizacional, numa óptica de criação e manutenção de vantagens competitivas sustentáveis. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo exploratório realizado no âmbito da indústria farmacêutica portuguesa, com o objectivo de investigar, por um lado, a presença dos três elementos do capital intelectual: capital humano, capital estrutural e capital relacional e, por outro, o seu inter-relacionamento dentro do contexto farmacêutico português. Por fim, pretende-se investigar até que ponto o capital intelectual contribui para o sucesso das organizações analisadas. / According to the prevailing economic paradigm, intangibles are now the main factors of production that are creating wealth in the business world and they should be seen by managers as crucial factors of success. The intangible assets that create organisational value and sustain a competitive edge constitute intellectual capital. In academia intellectual capital is viewed as a driving force for economic development, in the context of the knowledge society, but in the corporate world, although recognised for its strategic importance few people can define it and identify it, or even know how to exploit it. The chief obstacle may be related to the difficulty in measuring and representing the value engendered by this intangible resource. Most authors involved in studying intellectual capital believe that it is related to organisational performance in terms of creating and retaining sustainable competitive advantages. This work is an exploratory study of the Portuguese pharmaceutical industry and it set out, first, to inquire into the presence of the three elements of intellectual capital, human capital, structural capital and relational capital, and also to examine their interrelations within the Portuguese pharmaceutical context. A final objective was to ascertain the part played by intellectual capital in the success of the organizations studied.

Gestión del riesgo reputacional en las grandes empresas de la ciudad de Medellín (Colombia): un estudio de casos

Debido a que el riesgo reputacional cada vez cobra más importancia a nivel mundial por las implicaciones y consecuencias que afectan la imagen, buen nombre y permanencia de las empresas, surgió el interés de realizar esta investigación que explora y analiza cómo se gestiona el riesgo reputacional en empresas grandes de la ciudad de Medellín (Colombia) -- El estudio se diseñó bajo un enfoque cualitativo, con alcance exploratorio a partir de la revisión y posterior construcción de un marco teórico para comprender los conceptos fundamentales relacionados con el tema de reputación y de riesgos -- Se indagó en las empresas acerca de los factores internos y externos que originan riesgos y sus posibles consecuencias, prácticas que llevan a cabo para gestionar el riesgo reputacional, metodologías y herramientas que utilizan para la misma y modelos de medición -- Los resultados de la investigación constituyen una guía para la gestión del riesgo reputacional y podrían servir como modelo para la implementación en otras empresas

Kierkegaard e Kant : algumas aproximações entre a ética do amor e a ética do dever

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar, com intuito aproximativo, duas posições éticas. Para atingir tal objetivo, o texto vai analisar, nas suas considerações introdutórias, o contexto e os objetivos das Obras do Amor de Kierkegaard, visto que ali se encontra claramente expressa a proposta ética do autor dinamarquês. Na sua primeira parte, o foco do artigo consistirá na avaliação da racionalidade da ética do dever, especialmente por meio de uma investigação da boa vontade em relação à liberdade, tal como elaborada na terceira seção da Fundamentação da Metafísica dos Costumes. Na segunda parte, o artigo analisará o discurso kierkegaardiano Tu deves amar, que é parte integrante das Obras do Amor. Por fim, à guisa de conclusão, serão realizadas aproximações e apontadas as diferenças significativas entre os dois pensadores. Aqui serão utilizadas, de forma mais intensiva, também as reflexões de comentadores de ambos os autores. Todavia, o foco principal da pesquisa se dará em torno das reflexões kierkegaardianas, que serão avaliadas de modo mais exaustivo. A reflexão acerca da filosofia moral kantiana não seguirá do mesmo modo, mas, antes, buscará compreendê-lo no diálogo com a filosofia kierkegaardiana. _________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT

Determinants of Terminal Value in the Evaluation of Companies: A Panel Data Approach to the Context of European Companies.

The uncertainty of the future of a firm has to be modelled and incorporated into the evaluation of companies outside their explicit period of analysis, i.e., in the continuing or terminal value considered within valuation models. However, there is a multiplicity of factors that influence the continuing value of businesses which are not currently being considered within valuation models. In fact, ignoring these factors may cause significant errors of judgment, which can lead models to values of goodwill or badwill, far from the substantial value of the inherent assets. Consequently, these results provided will be markedly different from market values. So, why not consider alternative models incorporating life expectancy of companies, as well as the influence of other attributes of the company in order to get a smoother adjustment between market price and valuation methods? This study aims to provide a contribution towards this area, having as its main objective the analysis of potential determinants of firm value in the long term. Using a sample of 714 listed companies, belonging to 15 European countries, and a panel data for the period between 1992 and 2011, our results show that continuing value cannot be regarded as the current value of a constant or growth perpetuity of a particular attribute of the company, but instead be according to a set of attributes such as free cash flow, net income, the average life expectancy of the company, investment in R&D, capabilities and quality of management, liquidity and financing structure.

The Terminal Value (TV) Performing in Firm Valuation: The Gap of Literature and Research Agenda

The uncertainty about the future of firms must be modeled and incorporated in the valuation of enterprises outside the explicit period of analysis, i.e., in the continuing or terminal value (TV). There is a multiplicity of factors that influence the TV of firms which are not being considered within current evaluation models. This aspect leads to the incurring of unrecoverable errors, thus leading to values of goodwill or bad will far away from the substantial value of intrinsic assets. As a consequence, the evaluation results will be presented markedly different from market values. There is no consensus in the scientific community about the method of computation of the TV as a forecast in an infinite horizon. The size of the terminal, or non-explicit period, assumed as infinite, is never called into question by scientific literature, or the probability of business bankruptcy. This paper aims to promote a study of the existing literature on the TV, to highlight the fragility of the evaluation models of companies that have been used by the academic community and by financial analysts, and to point out lines for future research to minimize these errors.

O valor terminal ou de continuidade, na avaliação de empresas

É um facto que a incerteza sobre o futuro das sociedades tem de ser modelada e incorporada na sua avaliação, fora do período explícito de análise, ou seja: nos valores de continuidade (VC), valor residual (VR) ou valor terminal (VT), considerados nos modelos de avaliação. Existem inúmeros fatores que influenciam o valor de continuidade das empresas e que não são, atualmente, considerados nos modelos de avaliação de empresas, destacando-se, entre os mais relevantes, a ausência de quaisquer referências à esperança média de vida das empresas. De facto, ao ignorarmos esses fatores, podemos incorrer em erros irreparáveis, conduzindo as avaliações a valores de goodwill ou badwill, muito longe do real valor substancial dos ativos, que lhes é intrínseco. Como consequência, os referidos resultados apresentar-se-ão vincadamente diferentes dos valores de mercado. Assim, porque não considerar modelos alternativos (incorporando nos mesmos a esperança de vida das empresas) e a influência de outros fatores, de forma a obter um ajustamento mais eficiente, no que respeita à forma de cálculo do valor da empresa? Este trabalho pretende fornecer um contributo neste domínio, tendo como primeiro objetivo (e para além da revisão da literatura existente sobre a matéria) a construção de uma tábua de mortalidade para as empresas portuguesas, que possa ser utilizada para eliminar ou, pelo menos, reduzir um dos principais problemas causadores de distorção dos atuais modelos de avaliação de empresas: a premissa de existência (ilimitada no tempo) de uma empresa. Com esse propósito, através da metodologia associada à construção de tábuas de mortalidade para os seres humanos, construímos uma tabela com a esperança média de vida associada às empresas portuguesas. Assim, usando uma base de dados (com cerca de 182.000 registos sobre falências, dissoluções e cessão de atividade em Portugal, desde 1900 até 2009), concluímos que, nos primeiros 5 anos, “morrem” 31% das empresas e que a esperança média de vida (à nascença) é de 12 anos. Estes resultados evidenciam a fragilidade dos modelos de avaliação de empresas, em que se estima o VT com uma perpetuidade. Após ficar patente que as empresas não têm uma esperança de vida infinita, preocupar-nos-emos em identificar quais os fatores responsáveis pela existência da empresa (no longo prazo), fatores esses que possam, porventura, justificar uma vida mais longa das sociedades. VI Nesse sentido, o segundo objetivo passou por identificar quais os fatores determinantes do valor terminal da empresa. Assim [utilizando uma amostra de 714 empresas cotadas, pertencentes a 15 países europeus e para um período compreendido entre 1992 e 2011, usando a metodologia GMM (Generalized method of moments), aplicada a dados em painel dinâmico], os resultados evidenciam que o valor de continuidade não pode ser considerado como o valor atual de uma perpetuidade constante (ou com crescimento) de um determinado atributo da empresa mas, sim, em função de um conjunto de atributos, como os free cash flows, os resultados líquidos, a esperança média de vida da empresa, o investimento em I&D, as capacidades e qualidade da gestão, a liquidez dos títulos e a estrutura de financiamento. Como terceiro objetivo (e mantendo a particular atenção na estimação do VT da empresa), procurou-se cruzar os resultados obtidos no estudo anterior com as perceções dos analistas Europeus e Estadunidenses acerca dos atributos da empresa que, na opinião destes, mais contribuem para o seu valor. Para o feito, recorreu-se a um inquérito, com respostas fechadas. Da análise das 123 respostas válidas, obtidas usando a análise fatorial, concluiuse serem determinantes do valor de uma empresa ou negócio os seguintes fatores: a esperança média de vida da empresa, a sua liquidez e desempenho operacional, a inovação e capacidade de afetação de recursos a I&D, as capacidades de gestão e a estrutura de capital, confirmando-se as conclusões até então obtidas. Por fim, fez-se um esforço no sentido de fornecer ao leitor uma nova aproximação teórica ao modelo Discounted CashFlow (DCF), tendo em conta as variáveis entretanto identificadas no nosso estudo. Estes resultados contribuem, a nosso ver, para que se possa caminhar no sentido da construção de um modelo de avaliação de empresas e negócios ainda mais apurado, em que os resultados obtidos nas avaliações se aproximem o mais possível dos verificados no mercado.