Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Cerebral oxygenation during the Richalet hypoxia sensitivity test and cycling time-trial performance in severe hypoxia.

BACKGROUND: The Richalet hypoxia sensitivity test (RT), which quantifies the cardiorespiratory response to acute hypoxia during exercise at an intensity corresponding to a heart rate of ~130 bpm in normoxia, can predict susceptibility of altitude sickness. Its ability to predict exercise performance in hypoxia is unknown. OBJECTIVES: Investigate: (1) whether cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral tissue oxygenation (O2Hb; oxygenated hemoglobin, HHb; deoxygenated hemoglobin) responses during RT predict time-trial cycling (TT) performance in severe hypoxia; (2) if subjects with blunted cardiorespiratory responses during RT show greater impairment of TT performance in severe hypoxia. STUDY DESIGN: Thirteen men [27 ± 7 years (mean ± SD), Wmax: 385 ± 30 W] were evaluated with RT and the results related to two 15 km TT, in normoxia and severe hypoxia (FIO2 = 0.11). RESULTS: During RT, mean middle cerebral artery blood velocity (MCAv: index of CBF) was unaltered with hypoxia at rest (p > 0.05), while it was increased during normoxic (+22 ± 12 %, p < 0.05) and hypoxic exercise (+33 ± 17 %, p < 0.05). Resting hypoxia lowered cerebral O2Hb by 2.2 ± 1.2 μmol (p < 0.05 vs. resting normoxia); hypoxic exercise further lowered it to -7.6 ± 3.1 μmol below baseline (p < 0.05). Cerebral HHb, increased by 3.5 ± 1.8 μmol in resting hypoxia (p < 0.05), and further to 8.5 ± 2.9 μmol in hypoxic exercise (p < 0.05). Changes in CBF and cerebral tissue oxygenation during RT did not correlate with TT performance loss (R = 0.4, p > 0.05 and R = 0.5, p > 0.05, respectively), while tissue oxygenation and SaO2 changes during TT did (R = -0.76, p < 0.05). Significant correlations were observed between SaO2, MCAv and HHb during RT (R = -0.77, -0.76 and 0.84 respectively, p < 0.05 in all cases). CONCLUSIONS: CBF and cerebral tissue oxygenation changes during RT do not predict performance impairment in hypoxia. Since the changes in SaO2 and brain HHb during the TT correlated with performance impairment, the hypothesis that brain oxygenation plays a limiting role for global exercise in conditions of severe hypoxia remains to be tested further.

Competence needs of global middle management

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tarkastella henkilöstöjohdon ja linjajohdon näkemyksiä kansainvälisissä tehtävissä toimivan keskijohdon osaamistarpeista suurissa suomalaisissa vientiyrityksissä. Teemahaastatteluja tehtiin 12:ssa Suomen tärkeimpien vientialojen suurimmista yrityksistä. Kansainvälisissä tehtävissä toimivan keskijohdon osaamistarpeiden, kategorioihin jaoteltuna, nähtiin olevan: - - Tieto ja ymmärtäminen: asiakkaan liiketoiminta ja tarpeet, oma tuote ja prosessit, globaali toimintaympäristö, alaisten osaamistarpeet- - Asioiden ja ihmisten johtaminen: muutoksen johtaminen, asiakkuuksien hallinta, ajan hallinta, motivointi, monikulttuurisen tiimin johtaminen- - Vuorovaikutus: kielitaito, suhteiden luominen, viestin kohdentaminen- - Henkilökohtaiset ominaisuudet ja motivaatio: joustavuus, kulttuurinen herkkyys, epävarmuuden sietokyky, oppimishalu, erilaisuuden kunnioitus- - Tehtäväkohtainen osaaminen: kansainvälinen markkinointi, talous, myyntitaidot, tekninen asiantuntemus.

Uso de perfis cromatográficos de voláteis de cafés arábicas torrados para a diferenciação das amostras segundo o sabor, o aroma e a qualidade global da bebida

In this work, the volatile chromatographic profiles of roasted Arabica coffees, previously analyzed for their sensorial attributes, were explored by principal component analysis. The volatile extraction technique used was the solid phase microextraction. The correlation optimized warping algorithm was used to align the gas chromatographic profiles. Fifty four compounds were found to be related to the sensorial attributes investigated. The volatiles pyrrole, 1-methyl-pyrrole, cyclopentanone, dihydro-2-methyl-3-furanone, furfural, 2-ethyl-5-methyl-pyrazine, 2-etenyl-n-methyl-pyrazine, 5-methyl-2-propionyl-furan compounds were important for the differentiation of coffee beverage according to the flavour, cleanliness and overall quality. Two figures of merit, sensitivity and specificity (or selectivity), were used to interpret the sensory attributes studied.

In vitro sensitivity of Fusarium graminearum isolates to fungicides

Head blight of wheat is a disease of global importance. In Brazil, it can cause damage of up to 27%. As resistant cultivars are not available yet, short-term disease control relies on the use of fungicides. The first step to reach effective management is to identify potent fungicides. In vitro experiments were conducted to determine the inhibitory concentration 50% (IC50) for mycelial growth or conidial germination, according to the chemical group of fungicides, of five Fusarium graminearum isolates of different origins. The following demethylation inhibitor (DMI) fungicides were tested: epoxiconazole, cyproconazole, metconazole, prochloraz, protioconazole and tebuconazole. In addition, azoxystrobin, kresoxim-methyl, pyraclostrobin and trifloxystrobin were included in the study, representing Quinone outside inhibitor fungicides (QoI), as well as a tubulin synthesis inhibitor, carbendazim and two ready mixtures, trifloxystrobin + tebuconazole or trifloxistrobin + prothioconazole. DMI's showed lower IC50 values compared to the QoI's. For the five tested isolates, in the overall mean, IC50 considering mycelial growth ranged for DMI's from 0.01 mg/L (metconazole, prochloraz and prothioconazole) to 0.12 mg/L (cyproconazole) and considering conidial germination for QoI's from 0.21 mg/L (azoxystrobin) to 1.33 mg/L (trifloxystrobin). The IC50 for carbendazim was 0.07 mg/L. All tested isolates can be considered sensitive to the studied DMI's, although certain differences in sensitivity could be detected between the isolates originating from one same state.

Respiratory panic disorder subtype and sensitivity to the carbon dioxide challenge test

The aim of the present study was to verify the sensitivity to the carbon dioxide (CO2) challenge test of panic disorder (PD) patients with respiratory and nonrespiratory subtypes of the disorder. Our hypothesis is that the respiratory subtype is more sensitive to 35% CO2. Twenty-seven PD subjects with or without agoraphobia were classified into respiratory and nonrespiratory subtypes on the basis of the presence of respiratory symptoms during their panic attacks. The tests were carried out in a double-blind manner using two mixtures: 1) 35% CO2 and 65% O2, and 2) 100% atmospheric compressed air, 20 min apart. The tests were repeated after 2 weeks during which the participants in the study did not receive any psychotropic drugs. At least 15 of 16 (93.7%) respiratory PD subtype patients and 5 of 11 (43.4%) nonrespiratory PD patients had a panic attack during one of two CO2 challenges (P = 0.009, Fisher exact test). Respiratory PD subtype patients were more sensitive to the CO2 challenge test. There was agreement between the severity of PD measured by the Clinical Global Impression (CGI) Scale and the subtype of PD. Higher CGI scores in the respiratory PD subtype could reflect a greater sensitivity to the CO2 challenge due to a greater severity of PD. Carbon dioxide challenges in PD may define PD subtypes and their underlying mechanisms.

Constructive Universalism: Sen and Sensitivity to Difference

Amartya Sen’s capability approach is, on the one hand, in line with universalism such as exhibited in Martha Nussbaum’s capabilities approach and Len Doyal and Ian Gough’s human need theory. On the other hand, his approach puts priority on people’s “self-evaluation” of capabilities and needs. The latter emphasis makes his approach distinctly sensitive to people’s differences such as gender, ethnicity, disability, sexual orientation, etc.. One could ask, however, how successfully the former commitment to universalism relates to this latter feature that places importance on taking difference seriously. This question is especially relevant with respect to global justice and gender, for example. To offer a potential answers to this question is main goal of this paper.

Fishery Commodity Chain Trap vis-à-vis Global Quality Standards: An Analysis of the Kerala Marine Fishery

The article examines the commodity chain trap of marine fishery in Kerala, at both material and value terms, and its ramifications in the globalised fishery chains. The marketing chains both material and value, are very complex in nature since they involve many types of markets and large number of intermediaries and participants. The article also scrutinizes the sensitivity of consumers’ and country’s responses in terms of dietary and hygienic standards relating to seafood trade. In addition, it discusses the devastating effect about the recent stipulations like the US Bio- Terrorism Act and Shrimp anti-dumping duty on the Kerala fishery products

Strain longitudinal global para la detección de estenosis coronaria significativa en pacientes con infarto agudo del miocardio

Introducción: La evaluación de la función miocárdica global y regional juega una papel crítico en el diagnóstico y manejo de los pacientes con enfermedad coronaria con importantes implicaciones pronosticas, las nuevas técnicas ecocardiográficas como la evaluación del STRAIN han sido validadas como una herramienta objetiva, comprehensiva y precisa para evaluar dichos parámetros. Objetivo: Determinar la capacidad del strain global longitudinal para la detección de estenosis coronaria significativa, número de territorios comprometidos y territorio anatómico del vaso culpable; en pacientes sin antecedentes de enfermedad coronaria previa con infarto agudo del miocardio. Diseño: estudio de pruebas diagnósticas retrospectivo en el que se utilizó como gold estándar la angiografía coronaria, se seleccionaron 64 pacientes con ecocardiograma transtorácico previo a la angiografía coronaria. Resultados: Se demostró una exactitud intermedia del strain global longitudinal para detectar estenosis coronaria por análisis de curvas ROC, con un área bajo la curva de 0,78 p= 0,000 (IC 0,6; 1,0), Una sensibilidad de 96.5% (91.7%, 101.3%), especificidad 40.0% (9.6%, 70.4%) y una prevalencia real del enfermedad coronaria de 85.1% (76.5%, 93.6%) Conclusiones: La medición de la función global y regional por medio del strain global longitudinal identifica pacientes con infarto agudo del miocardio que tienen estenosis coronaria significativa, número de territorios afectados, y la distribución anatómica de los posibles vasos culpables, sin embargo hay que tener precaución en su uso que sólo se limite a escenarios en donde pueda ser interpretado adecuadamente. Palabras clave: strain global bidimensional, detección de estenosis coronaria significativa, infarto del miocardio.

Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM - sensitivity to convective parametrization

The sensitivity of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) General Circulation Model (UGCM) to two very different approaches to convective parametrization is described. Comparison is made between a Kuo scheme, which is constrained by large-scale moisture convergence, and a convective-adjustment scheme, which relaxes to observed thermodynamic states. Results from 360-day integrations with perpetual January conditions are used to describe the model's tropical time-mean climate and its variability. Both convection schemes give reasonable simulations of the time-mean climate, but the representation of the main modes of tropical variability is markedly different. The Kuo scheme has much weaker variance, confined to synoptic frequencies near 4 days, and a poor simulation of intraseasonal variability. In contrast, the convective-adjustment scheme has much more transient activity at all time-scales. The various aspects of the two schemes which might explain this difference are discussed. The particular closure on moisture convergence used in this version of the Kuo scheme is identified as being inappropriate.

The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM

On the time scale of a century, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is sensitive to the global surface salinity distribution. The advection of salinity toward the deep convection sites of the North Atlantic is one of the driving mechanisms for the THC. There is both a northward and a southward contributions. The northward salinity advection (Nsa) is related to the evaporation in the subtropics, and contributes to increased salinity in the convection sites. The southward salinity advection (Ssa) is related to the Arctic freshwater forcing and tends on the contrary to diminish salinity in the convection sites. The THC changes results from a delicate balance between these opposing mechanisms. In this study we evaluate these two effects using the IPSL-CM4 ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice coupled model (used for IPCC AR4). Perturbation experiments have been integrated for 100 years under modern insolation and trace gases. River runoff and evaporation minus precipitation are successively set to zero for the ocean during the coupling procedure. This allows the effect of processes Nsa and Ssa to be estimated with their specific time scales. It is shown that the convection sites in the North Atlantic exhibit various sensitivities to these processes. The Labrador Sea exhibits a dominant sensitivity to local forcing and Ssa with a typical time scale of 10 years, whereas the Irminger Sea is mostly sensitive to Nsa with a 15 year time scale. The GIN Seas respond to both effects with a time scale of 10 years for Ssa and 20 years for Nsa. It is concluded that, in the IPSL-CM4, the global freshwater forcing damps the THC on centennial time scales.

A baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change

This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial scales: global, regional (four consortia areas), and meso scale (case studies within the four regions). At all three scales of analysis water resources form the interweaving theme because water provides a vital provisioning service for people, supports all other ecosystem processes and because water resources are forecast to be severely affected under climate change scenarios. This report, combined with an Endnote library of over 1100 scientific papers, provides an annotated bibliography of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. After an introductory, section, Section 2 of the report defines water-related ecosystem services and how these are affected by human activities. Current knowledge and research gaps are then explored in relation to global scale climate and related hydrological changes (e.g. floods, droughts, flow regimes) (section 3). The report then discusses the impacts of climate changes on the ESPA regions, emphasising potential responses of biomes to the combined effects of climate change and human activities (particularly land use and management), and how these effects coupled with water store and flow regime manipulation by humans may affect the functioning of catchments and their ecosystem services (section 4). Finally, at the meso-scale, case studies are presented from within the ESPA regions to illustrate the close coupling of human activities and catchment performance in the context of environmental change (section 5). At the end of each section, research needs are identified and justified. These research needs are then amalgamated in section 6.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

Increased temperature sensitivity of net DOC production from ombrotrophic peat due to water table draw-down.

The production and release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat soils is thought to be sensitive to changes in climate, specifically changes in temperature and rainfall. However, little is known about the actual rates of net DOC production in response to temperature and water table draw-down, particularly in comparison to carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. To explore these relationships, we carried out a laboratory experiment on intact peat soil cores under controlled temperature and water table conditions to determine the impact and interaction of each of these climatic factors on net DOC production. We found a significant interaction (P < 0.001) between temperature, water table draw-down and net DOC production across the whole soil core (0 to −55 cm depth). This corresponded to an increase in the Q10 (i.e. rise in the rate of net DOC production over a 10 °C range) from 1.84 under high water tables and anaerobic conditions to 3.53 under water table draw-down and aerobic conditions between −10 and − 40 cm depth. However, increases in net DOC production were only seen after water tables recovered to the surface as secondary changes in soil water chemistry driven by sulphur redox reactions decreased DOC solubility, and therefore DOC concentrations, during periods of water table draw-down. Furthermore, net microbial consumption of DOC was also apparent at − 1 cm depth and was an additional cause of declining DOC concentrations during dry periods. Therefore, although increased temperature and decreased rainfall could have a significant effect on net DOC release from peatlands, these climatic effects could be masked by other factors controlling the biological consumption of DOC in addition to soil water chemistry and DOC solubility. These findings highlight both the sensitivity of DOC release from ombrotrophic peat to episodic changes in water table draw-down, and the need to disentangle complex and interacting controls on DOC dynamics to fully understand the impact of environmental change on this system.

Sensitivity of GCM tropical middle atmosphere variability and climate to ozone and parametrized gravity wave changes

This paper describes the impact of changing the current imposed ozone climatology upon the tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in a high top climate configuration of the Met Office U.K. general circulation model. The aim is to help distinguish between QBO changes in chemistry climate models that result from temperature-ozone feedbacks and those that might be forced by differences in climatology between previously fixed and newly interactive ozone distributions. Different representations of zonal mean ozone climatology under present-day conditions are taken to represent the level of change expected between acceptable model realizations of the global ozone distribution and thus indicate whether more detailed investigation of such climatology issues might be required when assessing ozone feedbacks. Tropical stratospheric ozone concentrations are enhanced relative to the control climatology between 20–30 km, reduced from 30–40 km and enhanced above, impacting the model profile of clear-sky radiative heating, in particular warming the tropical stratosphere between 15–35 km. The outcome is consistent with a localized equilibrium response in the tropical stratosphere that generates increased upwelling between 100 and 4 hPa, sufficient to account for a 12 month increase of modeled mean QBO period. This response has implications for analysis of the tropical circulation in models with interactive ozone chemistry because it highlights the possibility that plausible changes in the ozone climatology could have a sizable impact upon the tropical upwelling and QBO period that ought to be distinguished from other dynamical responses such as ozone-temperature feedbacks.