Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Similar patterns of local barn owl adaptation in the Middle East and Europe with respect to melanic coloration

The maintenance of phenotypic variation is a central question in evolutionary biology. A commonly suggested mechanism is that of local adaptation, whereby different phenotypes are adapted to alternative environmental conditions. A recent study in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) has shown that natural selection maintains a strong clinal variation in reddish pheomelanin-based coloration. Studies in the region where phenotypic variation in this owl is the highest in Europe have further demonstrated that dark-reddish and pale-reddish owls exploit open and wooded habitats, predate voles and wood mice, and are long-tailed and short-tailed, respectively. However, it remains unclear as to whether these traits evolved as a consequence of allopatric evolution of dark colour in northern Europe and white colour in southern Europe, during which owls could have also evolved different morphologies and foraging behaviour. This scenario implies that covariation between coloration and foraging behaviour could be a specificity of the European continent, which is not found in other worldwide-distributed populations. To investigate this issue we studied a barn owl population in the Middle East. Our results show that, as in Central Europe, dark-reddish female owls breed more often in the open landscape than their pale-reddish female conspecifics, their offspring are fed with more voles than Muridae, and they are longer-winged and longer-tailed. These findings indicate that in the barn owl the association in females between pheomelanin-based coloration and foraging behaviour and morphology is not restricted to the European continent but may well evolve in sympatry in many barn owl populations worldwide.

Extracapsular tumor spread and the risk of local, axillary and supraclavicular recurrence in node-positive, premenopausal patients with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Extracapsular tumor spread (ECS) has been identified as a possible risk factor for breast cancer recurrence, but controversy exists regarding its role in decision making for regional radiotherapy. This study evaluates ECS as a predictor of local, axillary, and supraclavicular recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VI accrued 1475 eligible pre- and perimenopausal women with node-positive breast cancer who were randomly assigned to receive three to nine courses of classical combination chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil. ECS status was determined retrospectively in 933 patients based on review of pathology reports. Cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using methods for competing risks analysis. Adjustment factors included treatment group and baseline patient and tumor characteristics. The median follow-up was 14 years. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, ECS was significantly associated with supraclavicular recurrence (HR = 1.96; 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.13; P = 0.005). HRs for local and axillary recurrence were 1.38 (P = 0.06) and 1.81 (P = 0.11), respectively. Following adjustment for number of lymph node metastases and other baseline prognostic factors, ECS was not significantly associated with any of the three recurrence types studied. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the decision for additional regional radiotherapy should not be based solely on the presence of ECS.

Proximal tibia volumetric bone mineral density is correlated to the magnitude of local acceleration in male long distance runners.

Introduction: The beneficial effect of physical exercise on bone mineral density (BMD) is at least partly explained by the forces exerted directly on the bones. Male runners present generally higher BMD than sedentary individuals. We postulated that the proximal tibia BMD is related to the running distance as well as to the magnitude of the shocks (while running) in male runners. Methods: A prospective study (three yearly measurements) included 81 healthy male subjects: 16 sedentary lean subjects and three groups of runners (5-30 km/week, n=19; 30-50 km/week, n=29; 50-100 km/week, n=17). Several measurements were performed at the proximal tibia level: volumetric BMD (vBMD), cortical index (CI) i.e. an index of cortical bone thickness and peak accelerations (an index of shocks during heel strike) while running (measured by a 3-D accelerometer). A general linear model assessed the prediction of vBMD or CI by a) simple effects (running distance, peak accelerations, time) and b) interactions (for instance if vBMD prediction by peak acceleration depends on running distance). Results: CI and vBMD a) increase with running distance to reach a plateau over 30 km/wk, b) are positively associated with peak accelerations over 30 km/week. Discussion: Running may be associated with high peak accelerations in order to have beneficial effects on BMD. More important strains are needed to be associated with the same increase in BMD during running sessions of short duration than those of long duration. Conclusion: CI and vBMD are associated with the magnitude of the shocks during heel strike in runners. Key words: Bone mineral density, strains, physical exercise, running distance.

Symbolic meaning of local identity – A case study on Barcelona place brand representation

The core objective of this research process was to design an operational tool for place brand analysis. By modelling the emotional significance and the deeper-lying symbols associated to a specific place identity I expected to create a semiotic tool that could be applied, mutatis mutandis, on other similar place brands. As a field case study to develop the instrument, my choice of the research arena was Barcelona city, the capital of Catalonia Autonomous Community, Spain. Barcelona brand identity was approached in the line of the Chicago Urban Anthropology School. The research methods were designed according to the prescriptions of the urban anthropology, namely qualitative methods: in-depth interviews and discourse analysis. The final research outcome was a model summarizing a range of specific emotional values that support a place brand to position in the collective mindset and to assume a positively valued status and identity in the world order.

Incidence of local complications and risk factors associated with peripheral intravenous catheter in neonates

Abstract OBJECTIVE To evaluate the incidence of complications related to the use of peripheral intravenous catheter in neonates and identify the associated risk factors. METHOD Prospective cohort study conducted in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit. Participants were the hospitalized neonates undergoing peripheral intravenous puncture in the period from February to June 2013. RESULTS The incidence of complications was 63.15%, being infiltration/extravasation (69.89%), phlebitis (17.84%) and obstruction (12.27%). The risk factors were the presence of infection (p = 0.0192) and weight at the puncture day (p = 0.0093), type of intermittent infusion associated with continuous infusion (p <0.0001), endotracheal intubation (p = 0.0008), infusion of basic plan (p = 0.0027), total parenteral nutrition (P = 0.0002), blood transfusion associated with other infusions (p = 0.0003) and other drugs (p = 0.0004). Higher risk of developing complications in the first 48 hours after puncture. CONCLUSION A high rate of complications related to the use of peripheral intravenous catheter, and risk factors associated with infection, weight, drugs and infused solutions, and type of infusion.

The effects of poor financial information systems on the long term sustainability of local public services. Empirical evidence from the Catalan Municipalities

In this paper we describe the existence of financial illusion in public accountingand we comment on its effects for the future sustainability of local publicservices. We relate these features to the lack of incentives amongst publicmanagers for improving the financial reporting and thus management of publicassets. Financial illusion pays off for politicians and managers since it allowsfor larger public expenditure increases and managerial slack, these beingarguments in their utility functions. This preference is strengthen by the shorttime perspective of politically appointed public managers. Both factors runagainst public accountability. This hypothesis is tested for Spain by using anunique sample. We take data from around forty Catalan local authorities withpopulation above 20,000 for the financial years 1993-98. We build this databasis from the Catalan Auditing Office Reports in a way that it can be linkedto some other local social and economic variables in order to test ourassumptions. The results confirm that there is a statistical relationship between the financialillusion index (FI as constructed in the paper) and higher current expenditure.This reflects on important overruns and increases of the delay in payingsuppliers, as well as on a higher difficulties to face capital finance. Mechanismsfor FI creation have to do among other factors, with delays in paying suppliers(and thereafter higher future financial costs per unit of service), no adequateprovision for bad debts and lack of appropriate capital funding either forreposition or for new equipments. For this, it is crucial to monitor the way inwhich capital transfers are accounted in local public sheet balances. As a result,for most of the Municipalities we analyse, the funds for guaranteeing continuityand sustainability of public services provision are today at risk.Given managerial incentives at present in public institutions, we conclude thatpublic regulation recently enforced for assuring better information systems inlocal public management may not be enough to change the current state of affairs.

Wh-constructions in cape verdean creole: extensions of the copy theory of movement

Disponível no documento

GUINEA-BISSAU: The Role of Local and International NGOs in Environmental Preservation and Sustainability of the Bijagos Archipelago

Bijagos Archipelago in Guinea-Bissau is at present subject to numerous external impacts that affect its centuries old balance. Since 1975 Guinean society has been using its natural resources in an uncontrolled way over the territory and especially in the coastal area. The archipelago has been increasingly raising interest, most of which is incompatible with the guarantee for a long-term sustainable development. It has also displayed a general impoverishment as far as resource preservation is concerned, due to internal demographic pressure of a population that has doubled since 1981 and to external pressure related to neighboring migrations and consequent depletion of non-renewable resources. This article aims to analyze the actions of local and international NGOs in the preservation and sustainability of the Bijagos Archipelago. We seek through an interdisciplinary approach to analyze the phenomena that are configured within the strategies of NGOs, on the assumption that these issues are articulated in the field of geography and sociology, as well as in politics and international cooperation. It is proposed new challenges to environmental issues, especially in a current situation shaken by constant instability internal and external policies.

Extensions of maps defined on many fibres

Let S be a fibred surface. We prove that the existence of morphisms from non countably many fibres to curves implies, up to base change, the existence of a rational map from S to another surface fibred over the same base reflecting the properties of the original morphisms. Under some conditions of unicity base change is not needed and one recovers exactly the initial maps.

Topological computation of local cohomology multiplicities.

We express the Lyubeznik numbers of the local ring of a complex isolated singularity in terms of Betti numbers of the associated real link.

Report on the Local Public Health Services Grant administered by the Bureau of Local Public Health Services, a division of Health Promotion and Chronic Disease Prevention of the Iowa Department of Public Health for the period July 1, 2006 through June 30, 2008

Report on the Local Public Health Services Grant administered by the Bureau of Local Public Health Services, a division of Health Promotion and Chronic Disease Prevention of the Iowa Department of Public Health for the period July 1, 2006 through June 30, 2008

Citizens' control and the efficiency of local public services

Està àmpliament acceptat que la descentralització fiscal incrementa el control dels ciutadans sobre els polítics, fomenta el rendiment de comptes i augmenta l¿eficiència. Aquest treball té per objectiu identificar les característiques socio-econòmiques dels ciutadans (votants potencials) que generen un major control sobre els responsables polítics locals provocant, així, un major nivell d'eficiència en un context descentralitzat.També s'analitzen les característiques fiscals dels governs locals que fomenten aquest control i eficiència. L'estudi s'ha aplicat a una mostra de municipis catalans seguint la metodologia convencional basada en l'estimació en dues etapes. A la primera etapa s'estima l'eficiència en que operen els municipis mitjançant la tècnica DEA. La novetat rau en el càlcul d'una nova versió d'indicador global d¿output municipal. En la segona etapa, a través d¿una estimació tipus Tobit (models censurats) i de mètodes bootstrap, es mostra com els factors abans comentats poden influir sobre l¿eficiència. Els resultats suggereixen que la forta presencia de comerciants, jubilats i persones amb dret a vot afavoreixen el control dels ciutadans, el rendiment de comptes i l¿eficiència. Un factor que facilita aquest control, i per tant una major eficiència, és la presència de baixos costos d'oportunitat d'obtenir informació sobre la gestió local dels serveis públics.