Análise Bayesiana para a distribuição Exponencial-Logarítmica

Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT

Proteins, Pathogens, and Failure at the Composite-Tooth Interface

In the United States, composites accounted for nearly 70% of the 173.2 million composite and amalgam restorations placed in 2006 (Kingman et al., 2012), and it is likely that the use of composite will continue to increase as dentists phase out dental amalgam. This trend is not, however, without consequences. The failure rate of composite restorations is double that of amalgam (Ferracane, 2013). Composite restorations accumulate more biofilm, experience more secondary decay, and require more frequent replacement. In vivo biodegradation of the adhesive bond at the composite-tooth interface is a major contributor to the cascade of events leading to restoration failure. Binding by proteins, particularly gp340, from the salivary pellicle leads to biofilm attachment, which accelerates degradation of the interfacial bond and demineralization of the tooth by recruiting the pioneer bacterium Streptococcus mutans to the surface. Bacterial production of lactic acid lowers the pH of the oral microenvironment, erodes hydroxyapatite in enamel and dentin, and promotes hydrolysis of the adhesive. Secreted esterases further hydrolyze the adhesive polymer, exposing the soft underlying collagenous dentinal matrix and allowing further infiltration by the pathogenic biofilm. Manifold approaches are being pursued to increase the longevity of composite dental restorations based on the major contributing factors responsible for degradation. The key material and biological components and the interactions involved in the destructive processes, including recent advances in understanding the structural and molecular basis of biofilm recruitment, are described in this review. Innovative strategies to mitigate these pathogenic effects and slow deterioration are discussed.

The exponential COM-Poisson distribution

The Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COMP) distribution as an extension of the Poisson distribution is a popular model for analyzing counting data. For the first time, we introduce a new three parameter distribution, so-called the exponential-Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ECOMP) distribution, that contains as sub-models the exponential-geometric and exponential-Poisson distributions proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (Stat Probab Lett 39:35-42, 1998) and KuAY (Comput Stat Data Anal 51:4497-4509, 2007), respectively. The new density function can be expressed as a mixture of exponential density functions. Expansions for moments, moment generating function and some statistical measures are provided. The density function of the order statistics can also be expressed as a mixture of exponential densities. We derive two formulae for the moments of order statistics. The elements of the observed information matrix are provided. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the new distribution to analyze positive data.

Tests for Comparing Mark-Specific Hazards and Cumulative Incidence Functions

It is of interest in some applications to determine whether there is a relationship between a hazard rate function (or a cumulative incidence function) and a mark variable which is only observed at uncensored failure times. We develop nonparametric tests for this problem when the mark variable is continuous. Tests are developed for the null hypothesis that the mark-specific hazard rate is independent of the mark versus ordered and two-sided alternatives expressed in terms of mark-specific hazard functions and mark-specific cumulative incidence functions. The test statistics are based on functionals of a bivariate test process equal to a weighted average of differences between a Nelson--Aalen-type estimator of the mark-specific cumulative hazard function and a nonparametric estimator of this function under the null hypothesis. The weight function in the test process can be chosen so that the test statistics are asymptotically distribution-free.Asymptotically correct critical values are obtained through a simple simulation procedure. The testing procedures are shown to perform well in numerical studies, and are illustrated with an AIDS clinical trial example. Specifically, the tests are used to assess if the instantaneous or absolute risk of treatment failure depends on the amount of accumulation of drug resistance mutations in a subject's HIV virus. This assessment helps guide development of anti-HIV therapies that surmount the problem of drug resistance.

A systematic review of the success of sinus floor elevation and survival of implants inserted in combination with sinus floor elevation. Part II: transalveolar technique

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review were to assess the survival rate of implants placed in sites with transalveolar sinus floor elevation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic search was conducted to identify prospective and retrospective cohort studies on transalveolar sinus floor elevation, with a mean follow-up time of at least 1 year after functional loading. Failure and complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates/ year proportions. RESULTS: The search provided 849 titles. Full-text analysis was performed for 176 articles, resulting in 19 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated an estimated annual failure rate of 2.48% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.37-4.49%) translating to an estimated survival rate of 92.8% (95% CI): 87.4-96.0%) for implants placed in transalveolarly augmented sinuses, after 3 years in function. Furthermore, subject-based analysis revealed an estimated annual failure of 3.71% (95% CI: 1.21-11.38%), translating to 10.5% (95% CI: 3.6-28.9%) of the subjects experiencing implant loss over 3 years. CONCLUSION: Survival rates of implants placed in transalveolar sinus floor augmentation sites are comparable to those in non-augmented sites. This technique is predictable with a low incidence of complications during and post-operatively.

EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.

Survival and failure rates of orthodontic temporary anchorage devices: a systematic review

AIM: The purpose of this study was to systematically review the literature on the survival rates of palatal implants, Onplants((R)), miniplates and mini screws. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic MEDLINE search supplemented by manual searching was conducted to identify randomized clinical trials, prospective and retrospective cohort studies on palatal implants, Onplants((R)), miniplates and miniscrews with a mean follow-up time of at least 12 weeks and of at least 10 units per modality having been examined clinically at a follow-up visit. Assessment of studies and data abstraction was performed independently by two reviewers. Reported failures of used devices were analyzed using random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of failure and survival proportions. RESULTS: The search up to January 2009 provided 390 titles and 71 abstracts with full-text analysis of 34 articles, yielding 27 studies that met the inclusion criteria. In meta-analysis, the failure rate for Onplants((R)) was 17.2% (95% CI: 5.9-35.8%), 10.5% for palatal implants (95% CI: 6.1-18.1%), 16.4% for miniscrews (95% CI: 13.4-20.1%) and 7.3% for miniplates (95% CI: 5.4-9.9%). Miniplates and palatal implants, representing torque-resisting temporary anchorage devices (TADs), when grouped together, showed a 1.92-fold (95% CI: 1.06-2.78) lower clinical failure rate than miniscrews. CONCLUSION: Based on the available evidence in the literature, palatal implants and miniplates showed comparable survival rates of >or=90% over a period of at least 12 weeks, and yielded superior survival than miniscrews. Palatal implants and miniplates for temporary anchorage provide reliable absolute orthodontic anchorage. If the intended orthodontic treatment would require multiple miniscrew placement to provide adequate anchorage, the reliability of such systems is questionable. For patients who are undergoing extensive orthodontic treatment, force vectors may need to be varied or the roots of the teeth to be moved may need to slide past the anchors. In this context, palatal implants or miniplates should be the TADs of choice.

Complication and failure rates with implant-supported fixed dental prostheses and single crowns: a 10-year retrospective study

PURPOSE Clinical studies related to the long-term outcomes with implant-supported reconstructions are still sparse. The aim of this 10-year retrospective study was to assess the rate of mechanical/technical complications and failures with implant supported fixed dental prostheses (FDPs) and single crowns (SCs) in a large cohort of partially edentulous patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS The comprehensive multidisciplinary examination consisted of a medical/dental history, clinical examination, and a radiographic analysis. Prosthodontic examination evaluated the implant-supported reconstructions for mechanical/technical complications and failures, occlusal analysis, presence/absence of attrition, and location, extension, and retention type. RESULTS Out of three hundred ninety seven fixed reconstructions in three hundred three patients, two hundred sixty eight were SCs and one hundred twenty seven were FDPs. Of these three hundred ninety seven implant-supported reconstructions, 18 had failed, yielding a failure rate of 4.5% and a survival rate of 95.5% after a mean observation period of 10.75 years (range: 8.4-13.5 years). The most frequent complication was ceramic chipping (20.31%) followed by occlusal screw loosening (2.57%) and loss of retention (2.06%). No occlusal screw fracture, one abutment loosening, and two abutment fractures were noted. This resulted in a total mechanical/technical complication rate of 24.7%. The prosthetic success rate over a mean follow-up time of 10.75 years was 70.8%. Generalized attrition and FDPs were associated with statistically significantly higher rates of ceramic fractures when compared with SCs. Cantilever extensions, screw retention, anterior versus posterior, and gender did not influence the chipping rate. CONCLUSIONS After a mean exposure time of 10.75 years, high survival rates for reconstructions supported by Sand-blasted Large-grit Acid-etched implants can be expected. Ceramic chipping was the most frequent complication and was increased in dentitions with attrition and in FDPs compared with SCs.

Long-term follow-up of maxillary fixed retention: survival rate and periodontal health.

AIM To assess the long-term success of maxillary fixed retainers, investigate their effect on gingival health, and analyse the survival rate after a mean period of 7 years (minimum 5 years) in retention. SUBJECTS AND METHODS Forty one subjects were included in the study A clinical examination of the upper canine to canine region including gingival index (GI), plaque index, probing depth, and bleeding on probing (BOP) was performed. Intraoral photographs and dental impressions were taken and irregularity index was determined and compared to the values of the immediate post-therapeutic values; failures of retainers were also recorded and analysed. RESULTS The mean observed retention time was 7 years and 5 months. Irregularity index: Changes occurring during retention were statistically different between the lateral incisors bonded to retainers and the canines not bonded to retainers. Only six patients showed changes in irregularity index of the lateral incisors in spite of a retainer in place. Periodontal health: The median value of the GI for all teeth bonded to upper retainers was 1.10 and the median value of the plaque index (PI) was 1.14. PI was not a significant predictor of GI. The overall BOP of the bonded teeth to the retainer for each participant was 22.3 per cent. Failure rate: Twenty-eight out of 41 patients experienced no failure of the upper bonded retainer (68.3 per cent). Detachments were the most frequent incidents. CONCLUSION Although plaque accumulation might be increased in patients with already poor oral hygiene, maxillary bonded retainers caused no significant negative effects on the periodontal health.

Reliability studies of the skew normal distribution

It has been observed in various practical applications that data do not conform to the normal distribution, which is symmetric with no skewness. The skew normal distribution proposed by Azzalini(1985) is appropriate for the analysis of data which is unimodal but exhibits some skewness. The skew normal distribution includes the normal distribution as a special case where the skewness parameter is zero. In this thesis, we study the structural properties of the skew normal distribution, with an emphasis on the reliability properties of the model. More specifically, we obtain the failure rate, the mean residual life function, and the reliability function of a skew normal random variable. We also compare it with the normal distribution with respect to certain stochastic orderings. Appropriate machinery is developed to obtain the reliability of a component when the strength and stress follow the skew normal distribution. Finally, IQ score data from Roberts (1988) is analyzed to illustrate the procedure.

Evaluation of the reliability of commercial concentrator triple-junction solar cells by means of accelerated life tests (ALT)

A temperature accelerated life test on commercial concentrator lattice-matched GaInP/GaInAs/Ge triple-junction solar cells has been carried out. The solar cells have been tested at three different temperatures: 119, 126 and 164 °C and the nominal photo-current condition (820 X) has been emulated by injecting current in darkness. All the solar cells have presented catastrophic failures. The failure distributions at the three tested temperatures have been fitted to an Arrhenius-Weibull model. An Arrhenius activation energy of 1.58 eV was determined from the fit. The main reliability functions and parameters (reliability function, instantaneous failure rate, mean time to failure, warranty time) of these solar cells at the nominal working temperature (80 °C) have been obtained. The warranty time obtained for a failure population of 5 % has been 69 years. Thus, a long-term warranty could be offered for these particular solar cells working at 820 X, 8 hours per day at 80 °C.

Effect of prolonged inactivity on skeletal motor nerve terminals during aestivation in the burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata

This study examined the effect of prolonged inactivity, associated with aestivation, on neuromuscular transmission in the green-striped burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata. We compared the structure and function of the neuromuscular junctions on the iliofibularis muscle from active C. alboguttata and from C. alboguttata that had been aestivating for 6 months. Despite the prolonged period of immobility, there was no significant difference in the shape of the terminals (primary, secondary or tertiary branches) or the length of primary terminal branches between aestivators and non-aestivators. Furthermore, there was no significant difference in the membrane potentials of muscle fibres or in miniature end plate potential (EPP) frequency and amplitude. However, there was a significant decrease in evoked transmitter release characterised by a 56% decrease in mean EPP amplitude, and a 29% increase in the failure rate of nerve terminal action potentials to evoke transmitter release. The impact of this suite of neuromuscular characteristics on the locomotor performance of emergent frogs is discussed.

Failure mechanism of the all-polyethylene glenoid implant

Fixation failure of glenoid components is the main cause of unsuccessful total shoulder arthroplasties. The characteristics of these failures are still not well understood, hence, attempts at improving the implant fixation are somewhat blind and the failure rate remains high. This lack of understanding is largely due to the fundamental problem that direct observations of failure are impossible as the fixation is inherently embedded within the bone. Twenty custom made implants, reflecting various common fixation designs, and a specimen set-up was prepared to enable direct observation of failure when the specimens were exposed to cyclic superior loads during laboratory experiments. Finite element analyses of the laboratory tests were also carried out to explain the observed failure scenarios. All implants, irrespective of the particular fixation design, failed at the implant-cement interface and failure initiated at the inferior part of the component fixation. Finite element analyses indicated that this failure scenario was caused by a weak and brittle implant-cement interface and tensile stresses in the inferior region possibly worsened by a stress raiser effect at the inferior rim. The results of this study indicate that glenoid failure can be delayed or prevented by improving the implant/cement interface strength. Also any design features that reduce the geometrical stress raiser and the inferior tensile stresses in general should delay implant loosening.

A multimodal and adaptive real-time human -computer interface for peoples with severe motor disability

This dissertation introduces the design of a multimodal, adaptive real-time assistive system as an alternate human computer interface that can be used by individuals with severe motor disabilities. The proposed design is based on the integration of a remote eye-gaze tracking system, voice recognition software, and a virtual keyboard. The methodology relies on a user profile that customizes eye gaze tracking using neural networks. The user profiling feature facilitates the notion of universal access to computing resources for a wide range of applications such as web browsing, email, word processing and editing. ^ The study is significant in terms of the integration of key algorithms to yield an adaptable and multimodal interface. The contributions of this dissertation stem from the following accomplishments: (a) establishment of the data transport mechanism between the eye-gaze system and the host computer yielding to a significantly low failure rate of 0.9%; (b) accurate translation of eye data into cursor movement through congregate steps which conclude with calibrated cursor coordinates using an improved conversion function; resulting in an average reduction of 70% of the disparity between the point of gaze and the actual position of the mouse cursor, compared with initial findings; (c) use of both a moving average and a trained neural network in order to minimize the jitter of the mouse cursor, which yield an average jittering reduction of 35%; (d) introduction of a new mathematical methodology to measure the degree of jittering of the mouse trajectory; (e) embedding an onscreen keyboard to facilitate text entry, and a graphical interface that is used to generate user profiles for system adaptability. ^ The adaptability nature of the interface is achieved through the establishment of user profiles, which may contain the jittering and voice characteristics of a particular user as well as a customized list of the most commonly used words ordered according to the user's preferences: in alphabetical or statistical order. This allows the system to successfully provide the capability of interacting with a computer. Every time any of the sub-system is retrained, the accuracy of the interface response improves even more. ^

The beta modified Weibull distribution

A five-parameter distribution so-called the beta modified Weibull distribution is defined and studied. The new distribution contains, as special submodels, several important distributions discussed in the literature, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among others. The new distribution can be used effectively in the analysis of survival data since it accommodates monotone, unimodal and bathtub-shaped hazard functions. We derive the moments and examine the order statistics and their moments. We propose the method of maximum likelihood for estimating the model parameters and obtain the observed information matrix. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance and flexibility of the new distribution.