Simulación de mercado diario y previsión a 20 años del sector eléctrico peninsular

En este proyecto se crea un modelo de casación de ofertas de venta y de adquisición de energía eléctrica. Este modelo sirve para simular, de manera simplificada, el proceso de casación que tiene lugar en el mercado Diario peninsular (España y Portugal). Con el fin de averiguar el comportamiento del sector eléctrico, en este aspecto, en el futuro, se extrapolan las ofertas de adquisición según una evolución prevista de demanda y se utiliza el modelo creado para prever el mix energético y los precios de la electricidad. Esta previsión se hace en base a tres escenarios. Uno en el que hay un importante autoabastecimiento de energía eléctrica en los puntos de consumo residenciales; otro en el que el vehículo eléctrico entra de manera significativa en el parque automovilístico peninsular; y el tercero en el que las energías renovables asumen el principal peso de la cobertura de energía eléctrica. Abstract In this project a model for matching sale and purchase bids of electricity power is created. The model simulates, simplified, the process of setting energy and prices in the Daily Market of the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal). In order to determine the electricity sector behavior in the future, purchase bids are extrapolated following a prevision of demand and the model is used to predict the generation technologies mix and electricity prices. This forecast is based on three possible scenarios. The first one assumes significant self-supply of electricity in residential areas; the second one considers that the electric vehicle relevantly enters the peninsular fleet; the third one supposes that renewable energies cover the majority of electric energy.

Forerunners or scaremongers? Germany to abandon nuclear power. OSW Commentary No. 58, 2011-07-21

The German government’s final decision to abandon nuclear power as of 2022 has been expected for months. However, instead of calming the waters, providing solutions and answering the question ‘What next?’, it has only fanned the flames. Even the adoption of legal amendments enforcing the government’s decision by the German parliament (both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat) in late June and early July has not calmed the situation. It is more than apparent that these decisions have been made under emotional pressure: there was not enough time for accurate calculations to be made and consideration to be given to the consequences of Germany abandoning nuclear power. Chancellor Angela Merkel has so far been unable to fully convince the public that the ‘energy shift is a huge opportunity’ and that this process will be carried out on condition that ‘the supplies remain secure, the climate protected and the whole process economically efficient’1. German economic associations have warned against a politically motivated, ill-judged and irreversible abandonment of nuclear energy. They are anxious about an increase in electricity prices, the instability of supplies and environmental damage. The government believes, however, that green technologies will become a new driving force for the German economy and its main export commodity. Before that happens the industry will have to increase its use of electricity produced from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas imported from Russia. This may be exploited by Gazprom which will try to strengthen its position on the German market, and thus in the entire EU.

Something Worth Fighting For: The Evolution of Lobbying Coalitions in the Emissions Trading System. Bruges Political Research Papers 50/2015.

This thesis attempts to understand who fought for influence within the European Union’s policy area of the Emissions Trading System (ETS). The ETS is a key aspect of the European Union’s (EU) climate change policy and is particularly important in light of the conclusions at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. It was first established in 2003 with Directive 2003/87/EC and completed its first major revision in 2008 with Directive 2009/29/EC. Between these two key Directives, the interplay between industrial and environmental incentives means that the ETS has created a dynamic venue for divergent interest groups. So as to identify the relevant actors, this paper applies the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) of Sabatier. Using position papers, semi-structured interviews, and unpublished documents from the EU institutions, this paper answers it primary research question in its identification of an economy-first and an environment-first lobbying coalition. These coalitions have expanded over time with the environment-first coalition incorporating Greenpeace and the economy-first coalition expanding even further in both scope and speed. However, the economy-first coalition has been susceptible to industry-specific interests. In its application of the ACF, the research shows that a hypothesised effect between the ACF’s external events and these lobbying coalitions is inconclusive. Other hypotheses stemming from the ACF relating to electricity prices and the 2004 enlargement seem to be of significance for the relative composition of the lobbying coalitions. This paper finds that there are certain limitations within the ACF. The findings of this thesis provide a unique insight into how lobbying coalitions within a key EU policy area can form and develop.

A techno-economic comparison of power production by biomass fast pyrolysis with gasification and combustion

This paper presents an assessment of the technical and economic performance of thermal processes to generate electricity from a wood chip feedstock by combustion, gasification and fast pyrolysis. The scope of the work begins with the delivery of a wood chip feedstock at a conversion plant and ends with the supply of electricity to the grid, incorporating wood chip preparation, thermal conversion, and electricity generation in dual fuel diesel engines. Net generating capacities of 1–20 MWe are evaluated. The techno-economic assessment is achieved through the development of a suite of models that are combined to give cost and performance data for the integrated system. The models include feed pretreatment, combustion, atmospheric and pressure gasification, fast pyrolysis with pyrolysis liquid storage and transport (an optional step in de-coupled systems) and diesel engine or turbine power generation. The models calculate system efficiencies, capital costs and production costs. An identical methodology is applied in the development of all the models so that all of the results are directly comparable. The electricity production costs have been calculated for 10th plant systems, indicating the costs that are achievable in the medium term after the high initial costs associated with novel technologies have reduced. The costs converge at the larger scale with the mean electricity price paid in the EU by a large consumer, and there is therefore potential for fast pyrolysis and diesel engine systems to sell electricity directly to large consumers or for on-site generation. However, competition will be fierce at all capacities since electricity production costs vary only slightly between the four biomass to electricity systems that are evaluated. Systems de-coupling is one way that the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system can distinguish itself from the other conversion technologies. Evaluations in this work show that situations requiring several remote generators are much better served by a large fast pyrolysis plant that supplies fuel to de-coupled diesel engines than by constructing an entire close-coupled system at each generating site. Another advantage of de-coupling is that the fast pyrolysis conversion step and the diesel engine generation step can operate independently, with intermediate storage of the fast pyrolysis liquid fuel, increasing overall reliability. Peak load or seasonal power requirements would also benefit from de-coupling since a small fast pyrolysis plant could operate continuously to produce fuel that is stored for use in the engine on demand. Current electricity production costs for a fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system are 0.091/kWh at 1 MWe when learning effects are included. These systems are handicapped by the typical characteristics of a novel technology: high capital cost, high labour, and low reliability. As such the more established combustion and steam cycle produces lower cost electricity under current conditions. The fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system is a low capital cost option but it also suffers from relatively low system efficiency particularly at high capacities. This low efficiency is the result of a low conversion efficiency of feed energy into the pyrolysis liquid, because of the energy in the char by-product. A sensitivity analysis has highlighted the high impact on electricity production costs of the fast pyrolysis liquids yield. The liquids yield should be set realistically during design, and it should be maintained in practice by careful attention to plant operation and feed quality. Another problem is the high power consumption during feedstock grinding. Efficiencies may be enhanced in ablative fast pyrolysis which can tolerate a chipped feedstock. This has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale. In summary, the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system has great potential to generate electricity at a profit in the long term, and at a lower cost than any other biomass to electricity system at small scale. This future viability can only be achieved through the construction of early plant that could, in the short term, be more expensive than the combustion alternative. Profitability in the short term can best be achieved by exploiting niches in the market place and specific features of fast pyrolysis. These include: •countries or regions with fiscal incentives for renewable energy such as premium electricity prices or capital grants; •locations with high electricity prices so that electricity can be sold direct to large consumers or generated on-site by companies who wish to reduce their consumption from the grid; •waste disposal opportunities where feedstocks can attract a gate fee rather than incur a cost; •the ability to store fast pyrolysis liquids as a buffer against shutdowns or as a fuel for peak-load generating plant; •de-coupling opportunities where a large, single pyrolysis plant supplies fuel to several small and remote generators; •small-scale combined heat and power opportunities; •sales of the excess char, although a market has yet to be established for this by-product; and •potential co-production of speciality chemicals and fuel for power generation in fast pyrolysis systems.

Az extrém ármozgások statisztikai jellemzői a magyar áramtőzsdén (The statistical characteristics of extreme price movements in the Hungarian power exchange)

2010. július 20-án megkezdte működését a magyar áramtőzsde, a HUPX. 2010. augusztus 16-án az első napokban tapasztalt 45-60 euró megawattórás ár helyett egyes órákban 2999 eurós árral szembesültek a piaci szereplők. A kiemelkedően magas árak megjelenése nem szokatlan az áramtőzsdéken a nemzetközi tapasztalatok szerint, sőt a kutatások kiemelten foglalkoznak az ún. ártüskék okainak felkutatásával, valamint megjelenésük kvantitatív és kvalitatív elemzésével. A cikkben a szerző bemutatja, milyen eredmények születtek a kiugró árak statisztikai vizsgálatai során a szakirodalomban, illetve azok következtetései hogyan állják meg a helyüket a magyar árak idősorát figyelembe véve. A szerző bemutat egy modellkeretet, amely a villamosenergia-árak viselkedését a hét órái szerint periodikusan váltakozó paraméterű eloszlásokkal írja le. A magyar áramtőzsde rövid története sajnos nem teszi lehetővé, hogy a hét minden órájára külön áreloszlást illeszthessünk. A szerző ezért a hét óráit két csoportba sorolja az ár eloszlásának jellege alapján: az ártüskék megjelenése szempontjából kockázatos és kevésbé kockázatos órákba. Ezután a HUPX-árak leírására felépít egy determinisztikus, kétállapotú rezsimváltó modellt, amellyel azonosítani lehet a kockázatos és kevésbé kockázatos órákat, valamint képet kaphatunk az extrém ármozgások jellegéről. / === / On 20th July, 2010 the Hungarian Power Exchange, the HUPX started its operation. On 16th August in certain hours the markets participants faced € 2,999 price instead of in the first days experienced 45-60 euros/mwh. According to the international experiences the appearance of the extremely high prices hasn’t been unusual in the power exchanges, the researches have focused exploring the causes of the so-called spikes and quantitative and qualitative analysis of those appearances. In this article the author describes what results were determined on statistical studies of outstanding prices in the literature, and how their conclusions stand up into account the time series of the Hungarian prices. The author presents a model framework which describes the behavior of electricity prices in the seven hours of periodically varying parameters. Unfortunately the brief history of the Hungarian Power Exchange does not allow to suit specific prices for each hour of week. Therefore the author classifies the hours of the week in the two groups based on the nature of price dispersion: according to the appearance of spikes to risky and less risky classes. Then for describing the HUPX prices the author builds a deterministic two-state, regime-changing model, which can be identified the risky and less risky hours, and to get a picture of the nature of extreme price movements.

Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

Capacity Investment in Renewable and Conventional Energy Sources

This dissertation studies capacity investments in energy sources, with a focus on renewable technologies, such as solar and wind energy. We develop analytical models to provide insights for policymakers and use real data from the state of Texas to corroborate our findings.

We first take a strategic perspective and focus on electricity pricing policies. Specifically, we investigate the capacity investments of a utility firm in renewable and conventional energy sources under flat and peak pricing policies. We consider generation patterns and intermittency of solar and wind energy in relation to the electricity demand throughout a day. We find that flat pricing leads to a higher investment level for solar energy and it can still lead to more investments in wind energy if considerable amount of wind energy is generated throughout the day.

In the second essay, we complement the first one by focusing on the problem of matching supply with demand in every operating period (e.g., every five minutes) from the perspective of a utility firm. We study the interaction between renewable and conventional sources with different levels of operational flexibility, i.e., the possibility

of quickly ramping energy output up or down. We show that operational flexibility determines these interactions: renewable and inflexible sources (e.g., nuclear energy) are substitutes, whereas renewable and flexible sources (e.g., natural gas) are complements.

In the final essay, rather than the capacity investments of the utility firms, we focus on the capacity investments of households in rooftop solar panels. We investigate whether or not these investments may cause a utility death spiral effect, which is a vicious circle of increased solar adoption and higher electricity prices. We observe that the current rate-of-return regulation may lead to a death spiral for utility firms. We show that one way to reverse the spiral effect is to allow the utility firms to maximize their profits by determining electricity prices.

Synsättet på förnyelsebara elkällor inom fastighetsbranschen

För mellan 40-50 år sedan så byggdes en miljon bostäder i Sverige. Idag har arbetet påbörjats med att renovera och restorera dessa bostäder, i samband med dessa åtgärder så görs även många åtgärder för att minska energianvändningen. Syftet med detta arbete var att ta reda på vad som var det mest ekonomiska valet av olika gröna elkällor. Även fastighetsägarnas egna tankar och uppfattningar ställs i relation till slutsatserna vid beräkningarna för att få en uppfattning om det stämmer överens. För att arbetet inte skulle bli för stort och krävande så gjordes dessa avgränsningar:  För att tiden skulle räcka till så avgränsades arbetet till Dalaregionen.  Arbetet har dessutom avgränsats till att bara undersöka ekonomin vid valet av de olika gröna elkällorna. Genom två olika undersökningar med mentometerknappar så kunde resultatet om fastighetsägarnas egna tankar och uppfattningar redovisas och analyseras. Vidare kunde fastighetsägarnas tankar och uppfattningar jämföras med beräkningarna och dessa slutsatser kunde då dras: Slutsatser:  Vindkraft var ej lönsam med dagens elpriser.  Av fastighetsbolag kunde det ses att deltagarna trodde olika på vad som gav bäst lönsamhet mellan vindkraft, solel eller grön el.

Life cycle management of TVO nuclear power plant

Tämä diplomityö tutkii eri elinkaarihallinnan menetelmiä ja vertaa niitä TVO:n menetelmiin. Lisäksi TVO:n prosessin ongelmakohdat tunnistetaan ja niihin esitetään ratkaisuja. Vertailukohteina toimii ydinvoimateollisuuden lisäksi vesivoima, fossiiliset voimalaitokset sekä paperiteollisuus. Sähkön hinnan jatkaessa laskuaan on elinkaariajattelusta tullut ajankohtaista myös ydinvoimayhtiöille. Ydinvoimalaitoksien pitkän suunnitellun käyttöiän ansiosta laitoksen elinkaaren aikana voi tapahtua useita asioita, jotka vaikuttavat laitoksen investointitarpeisiin. Turvallisen sähköntuotannon varmistamiseksi eri laitososia on joko muokattava tai uusittava. Elinkaariajatteluun kuuluu tehokas laitoksen kunnon valvonta, laitoksen ikääntymiseen vaikuttavien ilmiöiden tunnistaminen, sekä ikääntymistä hillitsevien toimenpiteiden pitkän tähtäimen suunnittelu. Hyvällä ennakkosuunnittelulla pyritään varmistamaan se, että laitoksella voidaan tuottaa sähköä koko sen jäljellä olevan käyttöiän aikana. Kun tarpeiden tunnistus ja suunnittelu tehdään hyvissä ajoin mahdollistetaan myös investointien optimointi. Paras hyöty pyritään saamaan ajoittamalla oikeat investoinnit oikeaan aikaan.

Optimal task placement with QoS constraints in geo-distributed data centers using DVFS

 With the rising demands on cloud services, the electricity consumption has been increasing drastically as the main operational expenditure (OPEX) to data center providers. The geographical heterogeneity of electricity prices motivates us to study the task placement problem over geo-distributed data centers. We exploit the dynamic frequency scaling technique and formulate an optimization problem that minimizes OPEX while guaranteeing the quality-of-service, i.e., the expected response time of tasks. Furthermore, an optimal solution is discovered for this formulated problem. The experimental results show that our proposal achieves much higher cost-efficiency than the traditional resizing scheme, i.e., by activating/deactivating certain servers in data centers.

Optimal Wind Bidding Strategies in Day-Ahead Markets

This paper presents a computer application for wind energy bidding in a day-ahead electricity market to better accommodate the variability of the energy source. The computer application is based in a stochastic linear mathematical programming problem. The goal is to obtain the optimal bidding strategy in order to maximize the revenue. Electricity prices and financial penalties for shortfall or surplus energy deliver are modeled. Finally, conclusions are drawn from an illustrative case study, using data from the day-ahead electricity market of the Iberian Peninsula.

Residential consumption of gas and electricity in the U.S.: The role of prices and income

We study the residential demand for electricity and gas, working with nationwide household-level data that cover recent years, namely 1997-2007. Our dataset is a mixed panel/multi-year cross-sections of dwellings/households in the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States as of 2008. We estimate static and dynamic models of electricity and gas demand. We find strong household response to energy prices, both in the short and long term. From the static models, we get estimates of the own price elasticity of electricity demand in the -0.860 to -0.667 range, while the own price elasticity of gas demand is -0.693 to -0.566. These results are robust to a variety of checks. Contrary to earlier literature (Metcalf and Hassett, 1999; Reiss and White, 2005), we find no evidence of significantly different elasticities across households with electric and gas heat. The price elasticity of electricity demand declines with income, but the magnitude of this effect is small. These results are in sharp contrast to much of the literature on residential energy consumption in the United States, and with the figures used in current government agency practice. Our results suggest that there might be greater potential for policies which affect energy price than may have been previously appreciated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Analysis of Electricity Market Prices Using Multidimensional Scaling

This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.