Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management

This overview article for the special series “Bayesian Networks in Environmental and Resource Management” reviews 7 case study articles with the aim to compare Bayesian network (BN) applications to different environmental and resource management problems from around the world. The article discusses advances in the last decade in the use of BNs as applied to environmental and resource management. We highlight progress in computational methods, best-practices for model design and model communication. We review several research challenges to the use of BNs in environmental and resource management that we think may find a solution in the near future with further research attention.

Melaleuca densispicata in Currawinya National Park, South-West Queensland: Ecology and preliminary implications for management of a rare plant species

Melaleuca densispicata Byrnes is an uncommon species with a limited distribution, comprising disjunct populations in inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, Australia. It is a dense, woody shrub, 2–4 m in height, which exhibits a marked 'clumping' growth habit. It has thick, papery bark and displays many white flowers during spring or early summer. Although it has long been known to exist, M. densispicata was only formally described in 1984, and very little is currently known about its ecology or specific management requirements. There are only seven known subpopulations of the species across its range. A major population at the western limit of its distribution occurs on Currawinya National Park (28°52'S, 144°30'E). Here, it is locally abundant and listed as a noteworthy plant species under the Management Plan (Queensland Parks & Wildlife Service 2001). This study aimed to identify patterns in the distribution of M. densispicata in Currawinya National Park, describe its ecological niche and role, and provide management recommendations for the species within the study area. Recent anecdotal observations of recruitment failure in south-western Queensland (Peter McRae, QPWS, October 2004, pers. comm.; Dick O'Connell, local grazier, July 2005 pers. comm.) caused additional emphasis to be placed on the examination of recruitment and recruitment factors.

Streptomyces scabies and S. turgidiscabies as pathogens causing potato common scab, and potential methods for their control

Tieteellinen tiivistelmä Common scab is one of the most important soil-borne diseases of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in many potato production areas. It is caused by a number of Streptomyces species, in Finland the causal agents are Streptomyces scabies (Thaxter) Lambert & Loria and S. turgidiscabies Takeuchi. The scab-causing Streptomyces spp. are well-adapted, successful plant pathogens that survive in soil also as saprophytes. Control of these pathogens has proved to be difficult. Most of the methods used to manage potato common scab are aimed at controlling S. scabies, the most common of the scab-causing pathogens. The studies in this thesis investigated S. scabies and S. turgidiscabies as causal organisms of common scab and explored new approaches for control of common scab that would be effective against both species. S. scabies and S. turgidiscabies are known to co-occur in the same fields and in the same tuber lesions in Finland. The present study showed that both these pathogens cause similar symptoms on potato tubers, and the types of symptoms varied depending on cultivar rather than the pathogen species. Pathogenic strains of S. turgidiscabies were antagonistic to S. scabies in vitro indicating that these two species may be competing for the same ecological niche. In addition, strains of S. turgidiscabies were highly virulent in potato and they tolerated lower pH than those of S. scabies. Taken together these results suggest that S. turgidiscabies has become a major problem in potato production in Finland. The bacterial phytotoxins, thaxtomins, are produced by the scab-causing Streptomyces spp. and are essential for the induction of scab symptoms. In this study, thaxtomins were produced in vitro and four thaxtomin compounds isolated and characterized. All four thaxtomins induced similar symptoms of reduced root and shoot growth, root swelling or necrosis on micro-propagated potato seedlings. The main phytotoxin, thaxtomin A, was used as a selective agent in a bioassay in vitro to screen F1 potato progeny from a single cross. Tolerance to thaxtomin A in vitro and scab resistance in the field were correlated indicating that the in vitro bioassay could be used in the early stages of a resistance breeding program to discard scab-susceptible genotypes and elevate the overall levels of common scab resistance in potato breeding populations. The potential for biological control of S. scabies and S. turgidiscabies using a non-pathogenic Streptomyces strain (346) isolated from a scab lesion and S. griseoviridis strain (K61) from a commercially available biocontrol product was studied. Both strains showed antagonistic activity against S. scabies and S. turgidiscabies in vitro and suppressed the development of common scab disease caused by S. turgidiscabies in the glasshouse. Furthermore, strain 346 reduced the incidence of S. turgidiscabies in scab lesions on potato tubers in the field. These results demonstrated for the first time the potential for biological control of S. turgidiscabies in the glasshouse and under field conditions and may be applied to enhance control of common scab in the future.

Operationalizing Supply Chain vs. Supply Chain Competion

Competition is an immensely important area of study in economic theory, business and strategy. It is known to be vital in meeting consumers’ growing expectations, stimulating increase in the size of the market, pushing innovation, reducing cost and consequently generating better value for end users, among other things. Having said that, it is important to recognize that supply chains, as we know it, has changed the way companies deal with each other both in confrontational or conciliatory terms. As such, with the rise of global markets and outsourcing destinations, increased technological development in transportation, communication and telecommunications has meant that geographical barriers of distance with regards to competition are a thing of the past in an increasingly flat world. Even though the dominant articulation of competition within management and business literature rests mostly within economic competition theory, this thesis draws attention to the implicit shift in the recognition of other forms of competition in today’s business environment, especially those involving supply chain structures. Thus, there is popular agreement within a broad business arena that competition between companies is set to take place along their supply chains. Hence, management’s attention has been focused on how supply chains could become more aggressive making each firm in its supply chain more efficient. However, there is much disagreement on the mechanism through which such competition pitching supply chain against supply chain will take place. The purpose of this thesis therefore, is to develop and conceptualize the notion of supply chain vs. supply chain competition, within the discipline of supply chain management. The thesis proposes that competition between supply chains may be carried forward via the use of competition theories that emphasize interaction and dimensionality, hence, encountering friction from a number of sources in their search for critical resources and services. The thesis demonstrates how supply chain vs. supply chain competition may be carried out theoretically, using generated data for illustration, and practically using logistics centers as a way to provide a link between theory and corresponding practice of this evolving competition mode. The thesis concludes that supply chain vs. supply chain competition, no matter the conceptualization taken, is complex, novel and can be very easily distorted and abused. It therefore calls for the joint development of regulatory measures by practitioners and policymakers alike, to guide this developing mode of competition.

A multi-level multi-scale approach to study essential genes in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Background: The set of indispensable genes that are required by an organism to grow and sustain life are termed as essential genes. There is a strong interest in identification of the set of essential genes, particularly in pathogens, not only for a better understanding of the pathogen biology, but also for identifying drug targets and the minimal gene set for the organism. Essentiality is inherently a systems property and requires consideration of the system as a whole for their identification. The available experimental approaches capture some aspects but each method comes with its own limitations. Moreover, they do not explain the basis for essentiality in most cases. A powerful prediction method to recognize this gene pool including rationalization of the known essential genes in a given organism would be very useful. Here we describe a multi-level multi-scale approach to identify the essential gene pool in a deadly pathogen, Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Results: The multi-level workflow analyses the bacterial cell by studying (a) genome-wide gene expression profiles to identify the set of genes which show consistent and significant levels of expression in multiple samples of the same condition, (b) indispensability for growth by using gene expression integrated flux balance analysis of a genome-scale metabolic model, (c) importance for maintaining the integrity and flow in a protein-protein interaction network and (d) evolutionary conservation in a set of genomes of the same ecological niche. In the gene pool identified, the functional basis for essentiality has been addressed by studying residue level conservation and the sub-structure at the ligand binding pockets, from which essential amino acid residues in that pocket have also been identified. 283 genes were identified as essential genes with high-confidence. An agreement of about 73.5% is observed with that obtained from the experimental transposon mutagenesis technique. A large proportion of the identified genes belong to the class of intermediary metabolism and respiration. Conclusions: The multi-scale, multi-level approach described can be generally applied to other pathogens as well. The essential gene pool identified form a basis for designing experiments to probe their finer functional roles and also serve as a ready shortlist for identifying drug targets.

Ecology of acoustic signalling and the problem of masking interference in insects

The efficiency of long-distance acoustic signalling of insects in their natural habitat is constrained in several ways. Acoustic signals are not only subjected to changes imposed by the physical structure of the habitat such as attenuation and degradation but also to masking interference from co-occurring signals of other acoustically communicating species. Masking interference is likely to be a ubiquitous problem in multi-species assemblages, but successful communication in natural environments under noisy conditions suggests powerful strategies to deal with the detection and recognition of relevant signals. In this review we present recent work on the role of the habitat as a driving force in shaping insect signal structures. In the context of acoustic masking interference, we discuss the ecological niche concept and examine the role of acoustic resource partitioning in the temporal, spatial and spectral domains as sender strategies to counter masking. We then examine the efficacy of different receiver strategies: physiological mechanisms such as frequency tuning, spatial release from masking and gain control as useful strategies to counteract acoustic masking. We also review recent work on the effects of anthropogenic noise on insect acoustic communication and the importance of insect sounds as indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem health.

Modelagem de bioinvasão do coral-sol (Tubastraea coccinea e T. tagusensis):mecanismos da ocupação e dispersão e identificação de sua potencial distribuição geográfica

Os fatores que explicam a distribuição observada em plantas e animais é uma pergunta que intriga naturalistas, biogeógrafos e ecólogos há mais de um século. Ainda nos primórdios da disciplina de ecologia, as tolerâncias ambientais já haviam sido apontadas como as grandes responsáveis pelo padrão observado da distribuição dos seres vivos, o que mais tarde levou à concepção de nicho ecológico das espécies. Nos últimos anos, o estudo das distribuições dos organismos ganhou grande impulso e destaque na literatura. O motivo foi a maior disponibilidade de catálogos de presença de espécies, o desenvolvimento de bancos de variáveis ambientais de todo o planeta e de ferramentas computacionais capazes de projetar mapas de distribuição potencial de um dado organismo. Estes instrumentos, coletivamente chamados de Modelos de Distribuição de Espécies (MDEs) têm sido desde então amplamente utilizados em estudos de diferentes escopos. Um deles é a avaliação de potenciais áreas suscetíveis à invasão de organismos exóticos. Este estudo tem, portanto, o objetivo de compreender, através de MDEs, os fatores subjacentes à distribuição de duas espécies de corais escleractíneos invasores nativos do Oceano Pacífico e ambas invasoras bem sucedidas de diversas partes do Oceano Atlântico, destacadamente o litoral fluminense. Os resultados mostraram que os modelos preditivos da espécie Tubastraea coccinea (LESSON, 1829), cosmopolita amplamente difundida na sua região nativa pelo Indo- Pacífico demonstraram de maneira satisfatória suas áreas de distribuição nas áreas invadidas do Atlântico. Sua distribuição está basicamente associada a regiões com alta disponibilidade de calcita e baixa produtividade fitoplanctônica. Por outro lado, a aplicação de MDEs foi incapaz de predizer a distribuição de T. tagusensis (WELLS,1982) no Atlântico. Essta espécie, ao contrário de sua congênere, tem distribuição bastante restrita em sua região nativa, o arquipélago de Galápagos. Através de análises posteriores foi possível constatar a mudança no nicho observado durante o processo de invasão. Finalmente, o sucesso preditivo para T. coccinea e o fracasso dos modelos para T. tagusensis levantam importantes questões sobre quais os aspectos ecológicos das espécies são mais favoráveis à aplicação de MDEs. Adicionalmente, lança importantes ressalvas na utilização recentemente tão difundida destas ferramentas como forma de previsão de invasões biológicas e em estudos de efeitos de alterações climáticas sobre a distribuição das espécies.

Vertical movement patterns of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, as revealed with archival tags

Thirty-three skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) (53−73 cm fork length) were caught and released with implanted archival tags in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during April 2004. Six skipjack tuna were recap-tured, and 9.3 to 10.1 days of depth and temperature data were down-loaded from five recovered tags. The vertical habitat-use distributions indicated that skipjack tuna not associated with floating objects spent 98.6% of their time above the thermocline (depth=44 m) during the night, but spent 37.7% of their time below the thermocline during the day. When not associated with floating objects, skipjack tuna displayed repetitive bounce-diving behavior to depths between 50 and 300 m during the day. The deepest dive recorded was 596 m, where the ambient temperature was 7.7°C. One dive was particularly remarkable because the fish contin-uously swam for 2 hours below the thermocline to a maximum depth of 330 m. During that dive, the ambient temperature reached a low of 10.5°C, and the peritoneal cavity temperature reached a low of 15.9°C. The vertical movements and habitat use of skipjack tuna, revealed in this study, provide a much greater understanding of their ecological niche and catchability by purse-seine fisheries.

Comportamento de forrageamento de Xiphorhynchus fuscus (Aves: Dendrocolaptidae): uma comparação entre áreas de Mata Atlântica de ilha e continente

Mudanças de nicho entre ilhas e continente, ou entre diferentes ilhas, incluem expansões de habitat e faixas mais amplas de estratos verticais de forrageamento. Organismos estão geralmente aptos a explorar apenas uma porção dos recursos que se encontra disponível no ambiente. A maneira como partilham esses recursos, além de definir seu nicho ecológico, pode indicar como as interações entre as espécies influenciam na estrutura da comunidade. Estas espécies, por sua vez, encontram-se associadas por suas relações de alimentação. Entre aves, diferentes espécies se associam para explorar recursos alimentares em agregações como a de espécies que seguem correição de formigas ou em bandos mistos. A associação de aves a bandos mistos tem sido relacionada à diminuição da predação e aumento da eficiência do forrageamento. Nesse tipo de associação, as espécies são categorizadas de acordo com a sua frequência e importância, e podem contribuir com a formação, coesão e manutenção do bando. O presente estudo teve como objetivo comparar o comportamento de forrageamento de Xiphorhynchus fuscus entre áreas de Mata Atlântica de ilha e continente a fim de investigar se existem diferenças em decorrência do isolamento. Foram realizadas transecções e observado o comportamento de forrageamento da espécie entre áreas de ilha e continente adjacente. Os resultados mostram uma diferença nos uso dos estratos verticais entre ilha e continente e entre indivíduos forrageando solitários e em bandos mistos de aves. A maior amplitude dos estratos verticais na ilha e a restrição deles no continente pela espécie, ao forragear solitariamente, indicam um provável efeito relacionado à competição. As diferenças entre o uso dos estratos verticais entre ilha e continente indicam a influência da composição das espécies em bandos mistos no estrato vertical utilizado por X. fuscus quando associado a estes. A menor adesão de X. fuscus a bandos mistos em ilha indica que a ausência de espécies de aves consideradas responsáveis pela associação das espécies e sua manutenção em bandos mistos seja responsável pela diferença encontrada em relação ao continente. Portanto, a diferença entre o número de espécies entre ilha e continente (com menor número na ilha) parece ser preponderante na utilização dos estratos verticais de forrageamento por X. fuscus estando ele associado a bandos mistos ou não

伞形科囊瓣芹属的系统学研究

囊瓣芹属Pternopetalum Franchet是伞形科Apiaceae/Umbelliferae芹亚科Apioideae芹族Apieae重要成员。全属包括约32个分类群（包括变种），分布于南朝鲜、日本、中国的西南部和邻近的喜马拉雅地区，中国西南部的横断山区是其多样性中心。典型的东亚特有格局和对东亚亚热带森林环境的偏爱是其东亚区系故有份子的特征。 基于19个标本馆标本材料、野外调查以及相应的实验证据，本博士论文从三个研究主题对囊瓣芹属展开了全面而系统的研究。一是通过标本观察和野外调查，利用标本管理系统BRAHMS和表型分析软件包DELTA系统，完成了囊瓣芹属的世界性分类修订；二是基于上述的分类方案，选择伞形科其它属的44个种作为参考性类群（Reference taxa），利用Winclada, NONA和MESQUITE软件包开展了分支系统学研究；三是基于坐标化的点分布数据，利用DIVA-GIS系统的生态位模型，进行潜在分布预测和生态地理分布特征的分析。研究的主要初步结论如下： 一、分类修订 根据对19个标本馆标本材料（包括85个模式采集）的考证，以及对云南、四川、贵州等地野外居群的观察，结合DELTA系统的表型分析，本研究确认囊瓣芹属包含14个种，提出了14个新异名，属下分为东亚囊瓣芹组Sect. I. Pteridophyllae H. Wolff和囊瓣芹组Sect. II. Pternopetalum H. Wolff两个组的分类方案。前者包括东亚囊瓣芹P. tanakae (Sav. & Franchet) Hand.-Mazz.、高山囊瓣芹P. subalpinum Hand.-Mazz.、洱源囊瓣芹P. molle (Franchet) Hand.-Mazz.等5个种；后者包括五匹青P. vulgare (Dunn) Hand.-Mazz.、囊瓣芹P. davidii Franchet和澜沧囊瓣芹P. delavayi (Franchet) Hand.-Mazz.等9个种。萼齿、花柱基、和花柱的形态是区别两个组比较好的形态学特征。叶的着生位置、最终末回裂片的形状（是否异形）、分裂回数以及伞形花序着生的位置和果棱表面的附属构造是种间识别有用的检索特征。 二、系统发育分析 根据如上的14个种的分类方案，另外选取了伞形科小芹属Sinocarum H. Wolff、丝瓣芹属Acronema Falc. ex Edgew.和鸭儿芹属Cryptotaenia L.等10个属共44种作为参考类群，基于63个广义形态学性状和58个种的形态学矩阵，利用最大简约法对囊瓣芹属进行了分支分析。结果表明，囊瓣芹属的14个种与日本特有单型的仙洞草Chamaele decumbens (Thunb.)Makino.形成一个单独分支，处于分支图的基部位置。表明囊瓣芹属与鸭儿芹属有较近的亲缘关系。长枝吸引可能是造成Chamaele Miq.与东亚囊瓣芹分支的非正常聚合的原因。囊瓣芹属可能是单系内群，但它与Chamaele Miq.属间关系需要进一步研究。属下形成以五匹青P. vulgare和东亚囊瓣芹P. tanakae为代表的两个主干演化线。分支进化（Cladogenesis）在两个主干演化线形成了形态和地理上对称分布的“种对”。根据形态特征的变异和地理分布，这些“种对”分为三种类型：1、形态上多变而地理上广布的类型，以东亚囊瓣芹P. tanakae和五匹青P. vulgare为代表；2、形态上稳定地理上狭域特有的类型，以薄叶囊瓣芹P. leptophyllum (Dunn)Hand.-Mazz. 和川鄂囊瓣芹P. rosthornii (Diels) Hand.-Mazz.为代表；3、形态上趋同而多变，地理分布上几乎完全重叠的类型，以洱源囊瓣芹P. molle和澜沧囊瓣芹P. delavayi为代表。 性状状态的分析显示，属下形态特征的趋异具有较强的同朔性。不等长的伞辐和花梗，以及囊状的花瓣基部三个形态学特征可以标识包括仙洞草在内的囊瓣芹分支。祖征状态的重建表明，东亚囊瓣芹分支相对保留了更多的祖征，是属下相对原始的类型；五匹青分支是后期生境需求的特化，适应潮湿和荫蔽环境的衍生类型。 三、生态地理分布 基于1128个坐标化的点分布数据和生态位模型，利用地理信息系统软件包DIVA-GIS对囊瓣芹属的物种多样性、现代地理分布、潜在分布进行了分析。结果表明，二郎山-峨眉山地区以及重庆金佛山及其临近地区是囊瓣芹属的两个主要的多样性中心。分布区内局部尺度上的异常性多样性（Diversity abnormalies）可能有两个来源：一是高的异质性生境条件下物种形成速率的差异；二是中国西南山地的“冰原岛峰效应”（Nunataks），比如峨眉山和金佛山，对属的早期演化线成员所起到的“避难所”（Refuge）的作用。 所预测的潜在分布范围与观察到的地理分布范围是一致的，说明对特化的气候忍耐性是限制囊瓣芹属物种地理分布的主要因素。温度和降水的季节性变化对囊瓣芹属代表中的地理分布限制作用比较大。亚热带-高山针阔常绿林是属下物种比较适宜的生境。属的地理分布可能形成于中新世以后，生态位的保守性是解释囊瓣芹属东亚本土就地分化和多样化的原因。属的分布范围的形成可能经历了一个早期南退西进的过程，后期分布范围变化可能主要是东西方向上的迁移和扩展。喜马拉雅—横断山—峨眉山/金佛山/神农架—日本、南朝鲜一线是囊瓣芹属多样化过程中分布范围东西延伸的重要通道。喜马拉雅—中国西南—日本朝鲜亚热带森林植被的完整性和连续性是囊瓣芹属演化和分布区形成的基本条件。

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Coastal Ecosystem Assessment Program: a manual of methods

Environmental managers strive to preserve natural resources for future generations but have limited decision-making tools to define ecosystem health. Many programs offer relevant broad-scale, environmental policy information on regional ecosystem health. These programs provide evidence of environmental condition and change, but lack connections between local impacts and direct effects on living resources. To address this need, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Ocean Service (NOAA/NOS) Cooperative Oxford Laboratory (COL), in cooperation with federal, state, and academic partners, implemented an integrated biotic ecosystem assessment on a sub-watershed 14-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUD) scale in Chesapeake Bay. The goals of this effort were to 1) establish a suite of bioindicators that are sensitive to ecosystem change, 2) establish the effects of varying land-use patterns on water quality and the subsequent health of living resources, 3) communicate these findings to local decision-makers, and 4) evaluate the success of management decisions in these systems. To establish indicators, three sub-watersheds were chosen based on statistical analysis of land-use patterns to represent a gradient from developed to agricultural. The Magothy (developed), Corsica (agricultural), and Rhode (reference) Rivers were identified. A random stratified design was developed based on depth (2m contour) and river mile. Sampling approaches were coordinated within this structure to allow for robust system comparisons. The sampling approach was hierarchal, with metrics chosen to represent a range from community to cellular level responses across multiple organisms. This approach allowed for the identification of sub-lethal stressors, and assessment of their impact on the organism and subsequently the population. Fish, crabs, clams, oysters, benthic organisms, and bacteria were targeted, as each occupies a separate ecological niche and may respond dissimilarly to environmental stressors. Particular attention was focused on the use of pathobiology as a tool for assessing environmental condition. By integrating the biotic component with water quality, sediment indices, and land- use information, this holistic evaluation of ecosystem health will provide management entities with information needed to inform local decision-making processes and establish benchmarks for future restoration efforts.

Wybiórczość siedliskowa dzięcioła średniego Dendrocopos medius w zróżnicowanych ekosystemach leśnych

Wydział Biologii

Sensory information and associative cues used in food detection by wild vervet monkeys.

Understanding animals' spatial perception is a critical step toward discerning their cognitive processes. The spatial sense is multimodal and based on both the external world and mental representations of that world. Navigation in each species depends upon its evolutionary history, physiology, and ecological niche. We carried out foraging experiments on wild vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) at Lake Nabugabo, Uganda, to determine the types of cues used to detect food and whether associative cues could be used to find hidden food. Our first and second set of experiments differentiated between vervets' use of global spatial cues (including the arrangement of feeding platforms within the surrounding vegetation) and/or local layout cues (the position of platforms relative to one another), relative to the use of goal-object cues on each platform. Our third experiment provided an associative cue to the presence of food with global spatial, local layout, and goal-object cues disguised. Vervets located food above chance levels when goal-object cues and associative cues were present, and visual signals were the predominant goal-object cues that they attended to. With similar sample sizes and methods as previous studies on New World monkeys, vervets were not able to locate food using only global spatial cues and local layout cues, unlike all five species of platyrrhines thus far tested. Relative to these platyrrhines, the spatial location of food may need to stay the same for a longer time period before vervets encode this information, and goal-object cues may be more salient for them in small-scale space.

Macroecology of Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas

Global climate change is expected to modify the spatial distribution of marine organisms. However, projections of future changes should be based on robust information on the ecological niche of species. This paper presents a macroecological study of the environmental tolerance and ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson 1957, i.e. the field of tolerance of a species to the principal factors of its environment) of Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Biological data were collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, which samples plankton in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas at a standard depth of 7 m. Eleven parameters were chosen including bathymetry, temperature, salinity, nutrients, mixed-layer depth and an index of turbulence compiled from wind data and chlorophyll a concentrations (used herein as an index of available food). The environmental window and the optimum level were determined for both species and for each abiotic factor and chlorophyll concentration. The most important parameters that influenced abundance and spatial distribution were temperature and its correlates such as oxygen and nutrients. Bathymetry and other water-column-related parameters also played an important role. The ecological niche of C. finmarchicus was larger than that of C. helgolandicus and both niches were significantly separated. Our results have important implications in the context of global climate change. As temperature (and to some extent stratification) is predicted to continue to rise in the North Atlantic sector, changes in the spatial distribution of these 2 Calanus species can be expected. Application of this approach to the 1980s North Sea regime shift provides evidence that changes in sea temperature alone could have triggered the substantial and rapid changes identified in the dynamic regimes of these ecosystems. C. finmarchicus appears to be a good indicator of the Atlantic Polar Biome (mainly the Atlantic Subarctic and Arctic provinces) while C. helgolandicus is an indicator of more temperate waters (Atlantic Westerly Winds Biome) in regions characterised by more pronounced spatial changes in bathymetry.

Climate, plankton and cod

While a few North Atlantic cod stocks are stable, none have increased and many have declined in recent years. Although overfishing is the main cause of most observed declines, this study shows that in some regions, climate by its influence on plankton may exert a strong control on cod stocks, complicating the management of this species that often assumes a constant carrying capacity. First, we investigate the likely drivers of changes in the cod stock in the North Sea by evaluating the potential relationships between climate, plankton and cod. We do this by deriving a Plankton Index that reflects the quality and quantity of plankton food available for larval cod. We show that this Plankton Index explains 46.24% of the total variance in cod recruitment and 68.89% of the variance in total cod biomass. Because the effects of climate act predominantly through plankton during the larval stage of cod development, our results indicate a pronounced sensitivity of cod stocks to climate at the warmer, southern edge of their distribution, for example in the North Sea. Our analyses also reveal for the first time, that at a large basin scale, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus is associated with a high probability of cod occurrence, whereas the genus Pseudocalanus appears less important. Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) generally considers the effect of fishing on the ecosystem and not the effect of climate-induced changes in the ecosystem state for the living resources. These results suggest that EBFM must consider the position of a stock within its ecological niche, the direct effects of climate and the influence of climate on the trophodynamics of the ecosystem.