State Estimates of Employment Rates for Persons with Disabilities: Report Summary

Statistics on the states’ employment rates for persons with disabilities relative to their non-disabled peers may be of assistance to providers of employment services for persons with disabilities. Such information can help service providers, policy makers, and disability advocacy leaders to assess whether the employment rate of people with disabilities is improving over time, given policy, regulatory, and service intervention strategies. A recent report from the Cornell University Rehabilitation Research and Training Center (RRTC) for Economic Research on Employment Policy for Persons with Disabilities uses data from the March Current Population Survey to estimate employment rates for persons with and without a disability in the non-institutionalized working-age (aged 25 through 61) civilian population in the United States, and for each state and the District of Columbia for the years 1980 through 1998. The employment rate of persons with a disability relative to that of persons without disabilities are found to vary greatly across states. Over the last 20 years the relative employment rate of those with a disability dramatically declined overall and in most states.

Drivers of the accuracy of developers' early stage cost estimates in residential construction

Purpose – Preliminary cost estimates for construction projects are often the basis of financial feasibility and budgeting decisions in the early stages of planning and for effective project control, monitoring and execution. The purpose of this paper is to identify and better understand the cost drivers and factors that contribute to the accuracy of estimates in residential construction projects from the developers’ perspective. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a literature review to determine the drivers that affect the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the factors influencing the construction costs of residential construction projects. It used cost variance data and other supporting documentation collected from two case study projects in South East Queensland, Australia, along with semi-structured interviews conducted with the practitioners involved. Findings – It is found that many cost drivers or factors of cost uncertainty identified in the literature for large-scale projects are not as apparent and relevant for developers’ small-scale residential construction projects. Specifically, the certainty and completeness of project-specific information, suitability of historical cost data, contingency allowances, methods of estimating and the estimator’s level of experience significantly affect the accuracy of cost estimates. Developers of small-scale residential projects use pre-established and suitably priced bills of quantities as the prime estimating method, which is considered to be the most efficient and accurate method for standard house designs. However, this method needs to be backed with the expertise and experience of the estimator. Originality/value – There is a lack of research on the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the relevance and applicability of cost drivers and factors in the residential construction projects. This research has practical significance for improving the accuracy of such preliminary cost estimates.

Using genomic data to make indirect (and unauthorized) estimates of disease risk

The number of genetic factors associated with common human traits and disease is increasing rapidly, and the general public is utilizing affordable, direct-to-consumer genetic tests. The results of these tests are often in the public domain. A combination of factors has increased the potential for the indirect estimation of an individual's risk for a particular trait. Here we explain the basic principals underlying risk estimation which allowed us to test the ability to make an indirect risk estimation from genetic data by imputing Dr. James Watson's redacted apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) information. The principles underlying risk prediction from genetic data have been well known and applied for many decades, however, the recent increase in genomic knowledge, and advances in mathematical and statistical techniques and computational power, make it relatively easy to make an accurate but indirect estimation of risk. There is a current hazard for indirect risk estimation that is relevant not only to the subject but also to individuals related to the subject; this risk will likely increase as more detailed genomic data and better computational tools become available.

Development of a productivity asessment toll for native spotted gum forest on private land based on estimates of forest growth on Crown land.

Reliable estimates of forest productivity are essential for improved predictions of timber yields for the private native spotted gum resource in southern Qld and northern NSW. The aim of this research was to estimate the potential productivity of native spotted gum forests on private land by making use of available inventory data collated from Qld and northern NSW for spotted gum forest on Crown land (i.e. state forests). We measured a range of site-related factors to determine their relative importance in predicting productivity of spotted gum forest. While measures such as stand height and height-diameter relationships are known to be useful predictors of productivity, we aimed to determine productivity for a site where this information was not available. Through estimation of stand growth rates we developed a spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT) for use by landholders and extension officers. We aimed to develop a tool to allow private landholders to see the benefits of maintaining their timber resource. This paper summarises the information used to develop the SPAT with a particular focus on forest growth relationships.

Bycatch weight, composition and preliminary estimates of the impact of bycatch reduction devices in Queensland's trawl fishery

This report provides quantitative information on the effects of turtle excluder devices (TEDs) and bycatch reduction devices (BRDs) on the catch rates of bycatch, prawns, scallops and byproduct species, such as Moreton Bay bugs and Balmain bugs, in Queensland’s major trawl fishing sectors. It also provides biological information on, and management advice for several species referred to in the Fishery Management Plan as the permitted species. Several recommendations are included for reducing bycatch in the trawl fishery and for sustaining stocks of the permitted species.

Estimates of genetic parameters for growth and wood properties in Eucalyptus pellita F. Muell. to support tree breeding in Vietnam

Key message Eucalyptus pellita demonstrated good growth and wood quality traits in this study, with young plantation grown timber being suitable for both solid and pulp wood products. All traits examined were under moderate levels of genetic control with little genotype by environment interaction when grown on two contrasting sites in Vietnam. Context Eucalyptus pellita currently has a significant role in reforestation in the tropics. Research to support expanded of use of this species is needed: particularly, research to better understand the genetic control of key traits will facilitate the development of genetically improved planting stock. Aims This study aimed to provide estimates of the heritability of diameter at breast height over bark, wood basic density, Kraft pulp yield, modulus of elasticity and microfibril angle, and the genetic correlations among these traits, and understand the importance of genotype by environment interactions in Vietnam. Methods Data for diameter and wood properties were collected from two 10-year-old, open-pollinated progeny trials of E. pellita in Vietnam that evaluated 104 families from six native range and three orchard sources. Wood properties were estimated from wood samples using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Data were analysed using mixed linear models to estimate genetic parameters (heritability, proportion of variance between seed sources and genetic correlations). Results Variation among the nine sources was small compared to additive variance. Narrow-sense heritability and genetic correlation estimates indicated that simultaneous improvements in most traits could be achieved from selection among and within families as the genetic correlations among traits were either favourable or close to zero. Type B genetic correlations approached one for all traits suggesting that genotype by environment interactions were of little importance. These results support a breeding strategy utilizing a single breeding population advanced by selecting the best individuals across all seed sources. Conclusion Both growth and wood properties have been evaluated. Multi-trait selection for growth and wood property traits will lead to more productive populations of E. pellita both with improved productivity and improved timber and pulp properties.

Questionable antibiotic practices: Obtaining reliable estimates of consumer behaviours

Background: Significant recent attention has focussed on the role of antibiotic prescribing and usage with the aim of combating antibiotic resistance, a growing worldwide health concern. A significant gap in this literature concerns the consumption patterns and beliefs of consumers about antibiotics and their effects. We seek to remedy this gap by exploring a range of questionable antibiotic practices and obtaining reliable estimates of their prevalence as well as their normative status. Methods: We conducted an online survey of over 100 consumers. We used a new incentive compatible technique, the Bayesian Truth Serum (BTS), to elicit more truthful responding than standard self-report measures. We asked participants to indicate whether they engaged in a number of practices including whether they had: taken antibiotics when they are out of date and stored antibiotics at home for later use. We then sought estimates of the percentage of other patients (like them) who had engaged in each behaviour, as well as asking them among those patients who had, the percentage that would admit to having done so. We also asked about social acceptability and responsibility of the practices. Results: These results will show for each type of questionable practice how prevalent it is and whether consumers view it as both socially acceptable and socially responsible. We will gain the relative prevalence of each of these practices. Conclusion: These findings are of paramount importance in gaining a better understanding of consumers’ antibiotic consumption patterns. These will be vital for better targeting educational campaigns to lower inappropriate antibiotic consumption.

Sampling frequency affects estimates of annual nitrous oxide fluxes

Quantifying nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes, a potent greenhouse gas, from soils is necessary to improve our knowledge of terrestrial N(2)O losses. Developing universal sampling frequencies for calculating annual N(2)O fluxes is difficult, as fluxes are renowned for their high temporal variability. We demonstrate daily sampling was largely required to achieve annual N(2)O fluxes within 10% of the best estimate for 28 annual datasets collected from three continents, Australia, Europe and Asia. Decreasing the regularity of measurements either under- or overestimated annual N(2)O fluxes, with a maximum overestimation of 935%. Measurement frequency was lowered using a sampling strategy based on environmental factors known to affect temporal variability, but still required sampling more than once a week. Consequently, uncertainty in current global terrestrial N(2)O budgets associated with the upscaling of field-based datasets can be decreased significantly using adequate sampling frequencies.

Dynamics of Barrierless and Activated Chemical Reactions in a Dispersive Medium within the Fractional Diffusion Equation Approach

Barrierless chemical reactions have often been modeled as a Brownian motion on a one-dimensional harmonic potential energy surface with a position-dependent reaction sink or window located near the minimum of the surface. This simple (but highly successful) description leads to a nonexponential survival probability only at small to intermediate times but exponential decay in the long-time limit. However, in several reactive events involving proteins and glasses, the reactions are found to exhibit a strongly nonexponential (power law) decay kinetics even in the long time. In order to address such reactions, here, we introduce a model of barrierless chemical reaction where the motion along the reaction coordinate sustains dispersive diffusion. A complete analytical solution of the model can be obtained only in the frequency domain, but an asymptotic solution is obtained in the limit of long time. In this case, the asymptotic long-time decay of the survival probability is a power law of the Mittag−Leffler functional form. When the barrier height is increased, the decay of the survival probability still remains nonexponential, in contrast to the ordinary Brownian motion case where the rate is given by the Smoluchowski limit of the well-known Kramers' expression. Interestingly, the reaction under dispersive diffusion is shown to exhibit strong dependence on the initial state of the system, thus predicting a strong dependence on the excitation wavelength for photoisomerization reactions in a dispersive medium. The theory also predicts a fractional viscosity dependence of the rate, which is often observed in the reactions occurring in complex environments.

Acidification of lakes in Finland : regional estimates of lake chemistry and critical loads

Yhteenveto: Järvien happamoituminen Suomessa: Alueellinen vedenlaatu ja kriittinen kuormitus

Energy dispersive backscattering of electrons from surface resonances of a disordered medium and 1/f noise

Anderson localised states in the bulk of a disordered medium appear as sharp resonances near the surface. The resonant backscattering leads to an energy-dependent random time delay for an incident electron. We derive an analytic expression for the delay-time probability distribution at a given energy. This is shown to give a 1/f noise for the surface currents in general.

Markov random fields and spatial smoothing in improving of forest inventory estimates

Markov random fields (MRF) are popular in image processing applications to describe spatial dependencies between image units. Here, we take a look at the theory and the models of MRFs with an application to improve forest inventory estimates. Typically, autocorrelation between study units is a nuisance in statistical inference, but we take an advantage of the dependencies to smooth noisy measurements by borrowing information from the neighbouring units. We build a stochastic spatial model, which we estimate with a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The smooth values are validated against another data set increasing our confidence that the estimates are more accurate than the originals.

Influence of sampling frequency on the estimates of runoff water quality

Tiivistelmä: Havaintotiheyden vaikutus valumavesien laatuarvioihin

Taking Multiple Infections of Cells and Recombination into Account Leads to Small Within-Host Effective-Population-Size Estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, N-e, are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate N-e similar to 10(2)-10(4), smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (similar to 10(5)), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates N-e>10(5), suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4), implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that N-e and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of N-e>10(5) reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4) may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence.