Nonlinear optimization method for short-term hydro scheduling considering head-dependency

This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling, particularly concerning head-dependent reservoirs under competitive environment. We propose a new nonlinear optimization method to consider hydroelectric power generation as a function of water discharge and also of the head. Head-dependency is considered on short-term hydro scheduling in order to obtain more realistic and feasible results. The proposed method has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, providing a higher profit at a negligible additional computation time in comparison with a linear optimization method that ignores head-dependency.

Scheduling of head-dependent cascaded hydro systems: Mixed-integer quadratic programming approach

This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro, scheduling, particularly concerning head-dependent cascaded hydro systems. We propose a novel mixed-integer quadratic programming approach, considering not only head-dependency, but also discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. Thus, an enhanced short-term hydro scheduling is provided due to the more realistic modeling presented in this paper. Numerical results from two case studies, based on Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, illustrate the proficiency of the proposed approach.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Short-term Value for the Water Stored in Headsensitivity Power System Reservoirs

As it is well known, competitive electricity markets require new computing tools for generation companies to enhance the management of its resources. The economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir is crucial information for enhancing the management of the reservoirs. This paper proposes a practical deterministic approach for computing the short-term economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir, emphasizing the need to considerer water stored as a scarce resource with a short-term economic value. The paper addresses a problem concerning reservoirs with small storage capacities, i.e., the reservoirs considered as head-sensitivity. More precisely, the respective hydro plant is head-dependent and a pure linear approach is unable to capture such consideration. The paper presents a case study supported by the proposed practical deterministic approach and applied on a real multi-reservoir power system with three cascaded reservoirs, considering as input data forecasts for the electric energy price and for the natural inflow into the reservoirs over the schedule time horizon. The paper presents various water schedules due to different final stored water volume conditions on the reservoirs. Also, it presents the respective economic value of the water for the reservoirs at different stored water volume conditions.

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

Responses of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata to long-term exposure to metal stress

The green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata has been widely used in ecological risk assessment, usually based on the impact of the toxicants in the alga growth. However, the physiological causes that lead algal growth inhibition are not completely understood. This work aimed to evaluate the biochemical and structural modifications in P. subcapitata after exposure, for 72 h, to three nominal concentrations of Cd(II), Cr(VI), Cu(II) and Zn(II), corresponding approximately to 72 h-EC10 and 72 h-EC50 values and a high concentration (above 72 h-EC90 values). The incubation of algal cells with the highest concentration of Cd(II), Cr(VI) or Cu(II) resulted in a loss of membrane integrity of ~16, 38 and 55%, respectively. For all metals tested, an inhibition of esterase activity, in a dose-dependent manner, was observed. Reduction of chlorophyll a content, decrease of maximum quantum yield of photosystem II and modification of mitochondrial membrane potential was also verified. In conclusion, the exposure of P. subcapitata to metals resulted in a perturbation of the cell physiological status. Principal component analysis revealed that the impairment of esterase activity combined with the reduction of chlorophyll a content were related with the inhibition of growth caused by a prolonged exposure to the heavy metals.

Triple Regimen with Rituximab, Plasmapheresis and Intravenous Immunoglobulin in the Treatment of Dialysis Dependent Acute Humoral-Mediated Rejection in Kidney Grafts

Introduction: The clinical importance of humoral-mediated acute rejection has been progressively recognised. Early recognition and treatment with plasmapheresis and intravenous immunoglobulin have recently improved short term prognosis. Case report: In this report we describe the clinical features of three 2nd transplant patients developing severe acute humoral rejection during the first week post-transplant while on anti-thymocyte globulin therapy. Treatment with plasmapheresis/ intravenous immunoglobulin/rituximab resulted in rapid reversal of oliguria,and recovery of renal function within the 1st week of treatment in 2/3 patients. Diagnosis was confirmed by graft biopsies revealing peritubular neutrophiles and C4d deposits. Sequential graft biopsies in all three patients revealed complete histological recovery within two weeks. One patient never recovered renal function, and one patient lost his graft at three months following hemorrhagic shock. After 2 years follow up, the remaining patient maintains a serum creatinine of 1.1mg/dl. Conclusion: The regimen using plasmapheresis plus intravenous immunoglobulin and rituximab was effective in rapidly reversing severe acute humoral rejection.

Time-dependent flexural behaviour of cracked steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete panels

In the present work are described and discussed the results of an extensive experimental program that aims to study the long-term behaviour of cracked steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete, SFRSCC, applied in laminar structures. In a first stage, the influence of the initial crack opening level (wcr = 0.3 and 0.5 mm), applied stress level, fibre orientation/dispersion and distance from the casting point, on the flexural creep behaviour of SFRSCC was investigated. Moreover, in order to evaluate the effects of the creep phenomenon on the residual flexural strength, a series of monotonic tests were also executed. It was found that wcr = 0.5 mm series showed a higher creep coefficient comparing to the series with a lower initial crack opening. Furthermore, the creep performance of the SFRSCC was influenced by the orientation of the extracted prismatic specimens regarding the direction of the concrete flow within the cast panel.

Short-and long-term effects of proallatotoxin (Ethoxyprecocene II) on Rhodnius prolixus females

Oogenesis and oviposition can be inhibited in female of Rhodnius prolixus by means of short-term experiment (first reproductive cycle) of a single dose of ethoxyprecocene II given by ingestion. The inhibition is dose-dependent as measured by oocyte growth, egg maturation and egg deposition. In a long-term experiment (second and third reproductive cycles) egg production and oogenesis can be partially or totally re-established by subsequent blood meals without ethoxyprecocene II. These findings suggest that in female R. prolixus, damage caused to corpus allatum by ethoxyprecocene II, in certain cases, is not irreversible.

Long-term citalopram administration reduces responsiveness of HPA axis in patients with major depression: relationship with S-citalopram concentrations in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and clinical response.

RATIONALE: A dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is a well-documented neurobiological finding in major depression. Moreover, clinically effective therapy with antidepressant drugs may normalize the HPA axis activity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to test whether citalopram (R/S-CIT) affects the function of the HPA axis in patients with major depression (DSM IV). METHODS: Twenty depressed patients (11 women and 9 men) were challenged with a combined dexamethasone (DEX) suppression and corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH) stimulation test (DEX/CRH test) following a placebo week and after 2, 4, and 16 weeks of 40 mg/day R/S-CIT treatment. RESULTS: The results show a time-dependent reduction of adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) and cortisol response during the DEX/CRH test both in treatment responders and nonresponders within 16 weeks. There was a significant relationship between post-DEX baseline cortisol levels (measured before administration of CRH) and severity of depression at pretreatment baseline. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify the impact of psychopathology and hormonal stress responsiveness and R/S-CIT concentrations in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The magnitude of decrease in cortisol responsivity from pretreatment baseline to week 4 on drug [delta-area under the curve (AUC) cortisol] was a significant predictor (p<0.0001) of the degree of symptom improvement following 16 weeks on drug (i.e., decrease in HAM-D21 total score). The model demonstrated that the interaction of CSF S-CIT concentrations and clinical improvement was the most powerful predictor of AUC cortisol responsiveness. CONCLUSION: The present study shows that decreased AUC cortisol was highly associated with S-CIT concentrations in plasma and CSF. Therefore, our data suggest that the CSF or plasma S-CIT concentrations rather than the R/S-CIT dose should be considered as an indicator of the selective serotonergic reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) effect on HPA axis responsiveness as measured by AUC cortisol response.

Treatment-dependent loss of polyfunctional CD8+ T-cell responses in HIV-infected kidney transplant recipients is associated with herpesvirus reactivation.

Antiretroviral-therapy has dramatically changed the course of HIV infection and HIV-infected (HIV(+)) individuals are becoming more frequently eligible for solid-organ transplantation. However, only scarce data are available on how immunosuppressive (IS) strategies relate to transplantation outcome and immune function. We determined the impact of transplantation and immune-depleting treatment on CD4+ T-cell counts, HIV-, EBV-, and Cytomegalovirus (CMV)-viral loads and virus-specific T-cell immunity in a 1-year prospective cohort of 27 HIV(+) kidney transplant recipients. While the results show an increasing breadth and magnitude of the herpesvirus-specific cytotoxic T-cell (CTL) response over-time, they also revealed a significant depletion of polyfunctional virus-specific CTL in individuals receiving thymoglobulin as a lymphocyte-depleting treatment. The disappearance of polyfunctional CTL was accompanied by virologic EBV-reactivation events, directly linking the absence of specific polyfunctional CTL to viral reactivation. The data provide first insights into the immune-reserve in HIV+ infected transplant recipients and highlight new immunological effects of thymoglobulin treatment. Long-term studies will be needed to assess the clinical risk associated with thymoglobulin treatment, in particular with regards to EBV-associated lymphoproliferative diseases.

Short and long-term effects of azadirachtin A on development and egg production of Rhodnius prolixus

Azadirachtin A was given through a blood meal to 4th-instar larvae and to adult females of Rhodnius prolixus. Development (ecdysis) and egg production were inhibited in a dose-dependent manner. Long-term experiments with subsequent four feedings on azadirachtin-free blood were performed with 4th-instar larvae and with adult females. Only in the low-dose azadirachtin larval groups (0.01 and 0.1 microng/ml of blood), development was partially restored; after a single 1.0 microng/ml treatment about 50% of the treated larvae were still alive 120 days later without any adult emergence. Similarly fed females had a dose-dependent lower survival and egg deposition rate. The results are discussed in relation to the mode of azadirachtin A action.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

State-dependent threshold STAR models

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent logistic STAR and contemporaneous-threshold STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of U.S. short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

Long-term effects of cannabis on brain structure.

The dose-dependent toxicity of the main psychoactive component of cannabis in brain regions rich in cannabinoid CB1 receptors is well known in animal studies. However, research in humans does not show common findings across studies regarding the brain regions that are affected after long-term exposure to cannabis. In the present study, we investigate (using Voxel-based Morphometry) gray matter changes in a group of regular cannabis smokers in comparison with a group of occasional smokers matched by the years of cannabis use. We provide evidence that regular cannabis use is associated with gray matter volume reduction in the medial temporal cortex, temporal pole, parahippocampal gyrus, insula, and orbitofrontal cortex; these regions are rich in cannabinoid CB1 receptors and functionally associated with motivational, emotional, and affective processing. Furthermore, these changes correlate with the frequency of cannabis use in the 3 months before inclusion in the study. The age of onset of drug use also influences the magnitude of these changes. Significant gray matter volume reduction could result either from heavy consumption unrelated to the age of onset or instead from recreational cannabis use initiated at an adolescent age. In contrast, the larger gray matter volume detected in the cerebellum of regular smokers without any correlation with the monthly consumption of cannabis may be related to developmental (ontogenic) processes that occur in adolescence.