The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Increased rates of ENT surgery among young children: Have clinical guidelines made a difference?

Objectives: To examine the association between introduction of paediatric ear, nose and throat (ENT) surgery guidelines and population procedure rates. To determine changes in children's risk of undergoing ENT surgery. Methods: Trend analysis of incidence of myringotomy, tonsillectomy and adenoidectomy among New South Wales (NSW) children aged 0-14 between 1981 and mid 1999. Poisson regression models were used to estimate annual rates of change pre and postguidelines introduction and age/gender specific rates, and lifetable methods to determine risk of undergoing an ENT procedure by age 15. Results: ENT surgery rates increased by 21% over the study period. Children's risk of surgery increased from 17.9% in 1981 to 20.2% in 1998/99. Guideline introduction was associated with moderate short-term decreases in rates. For tonsillectomy, rates decreased between 1981 and 1983, but then rose continually until the introduction of myringotomy guidelines in 1993, when they fell, only to recommence rising until the end of the study period. For myringotomy, rates rose annually from 1981 to 1992/93 and fell in the 3 years following guideline introduction, after which they rose again. Increases were almost exclusively restricted to children aged 0-4 and correspond with increased use of formal childcare. The prevalence of myringotomy by the age of 5 years rose from 5.6% of children born in 1988/89 to 6.4% of those born in 1994/95, and the prevalence of tonsillectomy from 2.4% to 2.7%. Conclusions: The risk of young Australian children undergoing ENT surgery increased significantly over the last two decades despite the introduction of guidelines and no evidence of an increase in otitis media, one condition prompting surgery. Surgery increased most among the very young. We hypothesize this is related to increasing use of childcare.

Exponential Rates of Convergence in the Ergodic Theorem: A Constructive Approach

We prove that, once an algorithm of perfect simulation for a stationary and ergodic random field F taking values in S(Zd), S a bounded subset of R(n), is provided, the speed of convergence in the mean ergodic theorem occurs exponentially fast for F. Applications from (non-equilibrium) statistical mechanics and interacting particle systems are presented.

Decline in homicide rates in Sao Paulo, Brasil: a descriptive analysis

Objective. To describe homicide mortality in the municipality of Sao Paulo according to type of weapon, sex, race or skin color, age, and areas of socioeconomic inequalities, between 1996 and 2008. Method. For this ecological time-series study, data about deaths in the municipality of Sao Paulo were collected from the municipal program for improvement of mortality information, using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Homicide mortality rates (HMR) were calculated for the overall population and specifically for each sex, race or skin color, age range, type of weapon, and occurrence in social deprivation/affluence areas. HMR were adjusted for age using the direct method. The percentage age of variation in HMR was calculated for the study period. For areas of socioeconomic inequalities, the relative risk of death from homicide was calculated. Results. HMR fell 73.7% between 2001 and 2008. A reduction in HMR was observed in all groups, especially males (-74.5%), young men between 15 and 24 years of age (-78.0%), and residents in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation (-79.3%). The reduction occurred mostly in firearm homicide rates (-74.1%). The relative risk of death from homicide in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation, as compared to areas with some degree of socioeconomic deprivation, was 2.77 in 1996, 3.9 in 2001, and 2.13 in 2008. In areas of high socioeconomic deprivation, the relative risk was 2.07 in 1996 and 1.96 in 2008. Conclusions. To understand the reduction in homicide rates in the municipality of Sao Paulo, it is important to take into consideration macrodeterminants that affect the entire municipality and all population subgroups, as well as micro/local determinants that have special impact on homicides committed with firearms and on subgroups such as the young, males, and residents of areas of high socioeconomic deprivation.

The impact of simple donor education on donor behavioral deferral and infectious disease rates in Sao Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) residual risk is higher in Brazilian than in US and European blood donors, probably due to failure to defer at-risk individuals in Brazil. This study assessed the impact of an educational brochure in enhancing blood donors` knowledge about screening test window phase and reducing at-risk individuals from donating. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This trial compared an educational intervention with a blood center`s usual practice. The brochure was distributed in alternating months to all donors. After donating, sampled participants completed two questions about their HIV window period knowledge. The impact on HIV risk deferral, leaving without donation, confidential unit exclusion (CUE) use, and test positivity was also analyzed. RESULTS: From August to November 2007 we evaluated 33,940 donations in the main collection center of Fundacao Pro-Sangue/Hemocentro de Sao Paulo in Sao Paulo, Brazil. A significant (p < 0.001) pamphlet effect was found on correct responses to both questions assessing HIV window phase knowledge (68.1% vs. 52.9%) and transfusion risk (91.1% vs. 87.2%). After adjusting for sex and age, the pamphlet effect was strongest for people with more than 8 years of education. There was no significant pamphlet effect on HIV risk deferral rate, leaving without donation, use of CUE, or infectious disease rates. CONCLUSION: While the educational pamphlet increased window period knowledge, contrary to expectations this information alone was not enough to make donors self-defer or acknowledge their behavioral risk.

Correlation between macular and retinal nerve fibre layer Fourier-domain OCT measurements and visual field loss in chiasmal compression

Purpose The aim of this study was to test the correlation between Fourier-domain (FD) optical coherence tomography (OCT) macular and retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness and visual field (VF) loss on standard automated perimetry (SAP) in chiasmal compression. Methods A total of 35 eyes with permanent temporal VF defects and 35 controls underwent SAP and FD-OCT (3D OCT-1000; Topcon Corp.) examinations. Macular thickness measurements were averaged for the central area and for each quadrant and half of that area, whereas RNFL thickness was determined for six sectors around the optic disc. VF loss was estimated in six sectors of the VF and in the central 16 test points in the VF. The correlation between VF loss and OCT measurements was tested with Spearman`s correlation coefficients and with linear regression analysis. Results Macular and RNFL thickness parameters correlated strongly with SAP VF loss. Correlations were generally stronger between VF loss and quadrantic or hemianopic macular thickness than with sectoral RNFL thickness. For the macular parameters, we observed the strongest correlation between macular thickness in the inferonasal quadrant and VF loss in the superior temporal central quadrant (rho=0.78; P<0.001) whereas for the RNFL parameters the strongest correlation was observed between the superonasal optic disc sector and the central temporal VF defect (rho=0.60; P<0.001).

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Brazil: mortality and hospitalization trends and rates, 1996-2008

SETTING: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death among adults in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the mortality and hospitalisation trends in Brazil caused by COPD during the period 1996-2008. DESIGN: We used the health official statistics system to obtain data about mortality (1996-2008) and morbidity (1998-2008) due to COPD and all respiratory diseases (tuberculosis: codes A15-16; lung cancer: code C34, and all diseases coded from J40 to 47 in the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases) as the underlying cause, in persons aged 45-74 years. We used the Joinpoint Regression Program log-linear model using Poisson regression that creates a Monte Carlo permutation test to identify points where trend lines change significantly in magnitude/direction to verify peaks and trends. RESULTS: The annual per cent change in age-adjusted death rates due to COPD declined by 2.7% in men (95%CI -3.6 to -1.8) and -2.0% (95%CI -2.9 to -1.0) in women; and due to all respiratory causes it declined by -1.7% (95%CI 2.4 to -1.0) in men and -1.1% (95%CI -1.8 to -0.3) in women. Although hospitalisation rates for COPD are declining, the hospital admission fatality rate increased in both sexes. CONCLUSION: COPD is still a leading cause of mortality in Brazil despite the observed decline in the mortality/hospitalisation rates for both sexes.

Declining rates of coronary heart disease in New Zealand and Australia, 1983-1993

The authors report the results of 10 years of monitoring of trends in the rates of major nonfatal and fatal coronary events and in case fatality in Auckland, New Zealand, and in Newcastle and Perth, Australia. Continuous surveillance of all suspected myocardial infarctions and coronary deaths in people aged 35-64 years was undertaken in the three centers as part of the World Health Organization's Multinational Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project, For nonfatal definite myocardial infarction, there were statistically significant declines in rates in all centers in both men and women, with estimated average changes between 2.5% and 3.7% per year during the period 1984-1993, Rates of all coronary deaths also declined significantly in all three populations for both men and women. In absolute terms, there was, in general, a greater reduction in prehospital deaths than in deaths after hospitalization. Although 28-day case fatality remains high at between 35% and 50%, in the Australian centers it declined significantly by between 1.0% and 2.9% per year, and in Auckland there was also a small decline, However, since most deaths occur outside the hospital in people without a previous history of coronary heart disease, an increased emphasis on primary prevention is necessary.

Income inequality and male homicide rates: Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2007

In Sao Paulo, Brazil, homicides to men aged 15-44 years increased with an annual percentage change (APC) of 4.7% from 1996 to 2001, and then decreased from 2001 to 2007 with an APC of -14.6%. Analyzing the intra-urban distribution according to family income, the increase in the homicide rate was restricted to men living in the poorest neighbourhoods. In contrast, the decline in homicide rates was observed to men living in all districts. The reasons for this `up and down` trend are not clear.

Increasing the Rates of Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Distal Rectal Cancer: Results of a Prospective Study Using Additional Chemotherapy During the Resting Period

OBJECTIVES: Addition of chemotherapy in the resting period between radiotherapy completion and response assessment during neoadjuvant treatment for distal rectal cancer could potentially increase rates of complete tumor regression. The purpose of this study was to evaluate toxicity rates and the impact of an extended neoadjuvant chemoradiation regimen on complete response rates. METHODS: Thirty-four consecutive patients with nonmetastatic distal rectal cancer were prospectively included. Patients were managed by 5,400 Gy of radiation and 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin-based chemotherapy given for three consecutive days every 21 days for six cycles (three cycles concomitant with radiotherapy). Tumor response assessment was performed at ten weeks from radiation completion. Patients with complete clinical response were strictly monitored and were not immediately operated on. Patients with incomplete clinical response were referred to surgery. RESULTS: Twenty-nine patients had completed 12 months of follow-up and were included in this preliminary analysis. Twenty-eight (97%) successfully completed treatment. Fifteen of 16 patients had Grade III toxicities that were skin-related (93%). Median follow-up was 23 months. Fourteen patients (48%) were considered as complete clinical responders sustained for at least 12 months (median, 24 months) after chemoradiation completion by clinical assessment alone. An additional five patients (17%) were considered as complete responders with ypT0 results after full-thickness local excision. Overall, the complete response rate was 65%. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of chemotherapy during the resting period after neoadjuvant chemoradiation is associated with acceptable toxicity and high tolerability rates. The considerably high rates of complete response in this preliminary series requires further follow-up, but they may provide valuable information for future prospective, randomized trials.

Relationship between use of technology and employment rates for people with physical disabilities in Australia: Implications for education and training programmes

This study examined the impact of computer and assistive device use on the employment status and vocational modes of people with physical disabilities in Australia. A survey was distributed to people over 15 years in age with physical disabilities living in the Brisbane area. Responses were received from 82 people, including those with spinal cord injuries, cerebral palsy and muscular dystrophy. Of respondents 46 were employed, 22 were unemployed, and 12 were either students or undertaking voluntary work. Three-quarters of respondents used a computer in their occupations, while 15 used assistive devices. Using logistic regression analysis it was found that gender, education, level of computer skill and computer training were significant predictors of employment outcomes. Neither the age of respondent nor use of assistive software were significant predictors. From information obtained in this study guidelines for a training programme designed to maximize the employability of people with physical disabilities were developed.

EFFECTS OF DECOMPRESSION TIME AFTER SPINAL CORD INJURY ON NEUROLOGIC RECOVERY IN WISTAR RATS

Objective Traumatic spinal Cord injuries are common in patients with high energy trauma and have significant morbidity and mortality rates as well as high psychological and social costs causing a major impact on public health To date the treatment of such lesions remains controversial with various studies in the literature comparing the results of non surgical treatment with immediate early or late surgical decompression The objective of the present study is to compare the results of immediate and early (within 1 hour) spinal Cord decompression Methods In the belief that the surgical treatment obtains the best result this experimental study has a case control design with histopathological and functional analysis of the results of surgical treatment of 25 Wistar mice submitted to posterior laminectomy immediately or after one hour of spinal Cord compression Results in terms of functional and neurological deficit the responses were better in the mice treated with immediate surgical decompression than in those treated one hour after the lesion (p=0 036) Conclusion The earlier the decompression of spinal Cord injuries is performed the better the end results in terms of the function and presence of neurological deficit