Ongoing outbreak of dengue serotype 3 in Solomon Islands, January to May 2013

Introduction In January 2013, clinicians in Honiara, Solomon Islands noted several patients presenting with dengue-like illness. Serum from three cases tested positive for dengue by rapid diagnostic test. Subsequent increases in cases were reported, and the outbreak was confirmed as being dengue serotype-3 by further laboratory tests. This report describes the ongoing outbreak investigation, findings and response. Methods Enhanced dengue surveillance was implemented in the capital, Honiara, and in the provinces. This included training health staff on dengue case definitions, data collection and reporting. Vector surveillance was also conducted. Results From 3 January to 15 May 2013, 5254 cases of suspected dengue were reported (101.8 per 10 000 population), including 401 hospitalizations and six deaths. The median age of cases was 20 years (range zero to 90), and 86% were reported from Honiara. Both Aedes aegyti and Aedes albopictus were identified in Honiara. Outbreak response measures included clinical training seminars, vector control activities, implementation of diagnostic and case management protocols and a public communication campaign. Discussion This was the first large dengue outbreak documented in Solomon Islands. Factors that may have contributed to this outbreak include a largely susceptible population, the presence of a highly efficient dengue vector in Honiara, a high-density human population with numerous breeding sites and favourable weather conditions for mosquito proliferation. Although the number of cases has plateaued since 1 April, continued enhanced nationwide surveillance and response activities are necessary.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Experimental evaluation of an autonomous surface vehicle for water quality and greenhouse gas emission monitoring

This paper describes the experimental evaluation of a novel Autonomous Surface Vehicle capable of navigating complex inland water reservoirs and measuring a range of water quality properties and greenhouse gas emissions. The 16 ft long solar powered catamaran is capable of collecting water column profiles whilst in motion. It is also directly integrated with a reservoir scale floating sensor network to allow remote mission uploads, data download and adaptive sampling strategies. This paper describes the onboard vehicle navigation and control algorithms as well as obstacle avoidance strategies. Experimental results are shown demonstrating its ability to maintain track and avoid obstacles on a variety of large-scale missions and under differing weather conditions, as well as its ability to continuously collect various water quality parameters complimenting traditional manual monitoring campaigns.

Antispin thrust allocation for marine vessels

In extreme weather conditions, thrusters on ships and rigs may be subject to severe thrust losses caused by ventilation and in-and-out-of-water events. When a thruster ventilates, air is sucked down from the surface and into the propeller. In more severe cases, parts of or even the whole propeller can be out of the water. These losses vary rapidly with time and cause increased wear and tear in addition to reduced thruster performance. In this paper, a thrust allocation strategy is proposed to reduce the effects of thrust losses and to reduce the possibility of multiple ventilation events. This thrust allocation strategy is named antispin thrust allocation, based on the analogous behavior of antispin wheel control of cars. The proposed thrust allocation strategy is important for improving the life span of the propulsion system and the accuracy of positioning for vessels conducting station keeping in terms of dynamic positioning or thruster-assisted position mooring. Application of this strategy can result in an increase of operational time and, thus, increased profitability. The performance of the proposed allocation strategy is demonstrated with experiments on a model ship.

How should future building structure and emergency response cope with bushfire attack?

Bushfires are regular occurrences in the Australian landscape which can, under adverse weather conditions, give rise to losses of life, property, infrastructure, environmental and cultural values. Where property loss is involved, historical surveys of house losses have focussed on ember, radiant heat and flame contact as key bushfire attack mechanisms. Although often noted, little work has been done to quantify the impact of fire generated or fire enhanced wind and pyro-convective events on house loss and to improve construction practice within Australia. It is well known that strong winds are always associated with bushfire events. It is less well known, although increasingly shown through anecdotal evidence, that bushfires are not a passive companion of wind, but indeed they interact with winds and can together cause significant damages to exposed buildings and ecological structures. Previous studies have revealed the effects of wind, fire and structure interactions with the result of increased pressure coefficient distributions on the windward side of a building downstream of a fire front. This paper presents a further analysis of the result in relations to the relevant standards and fire weather conditions. A review of wind code and bushfire code was conducted. Based on the result of the current study, the authors believe it is necessary to consider wind as an attack mechanism in bushfire events. The results of the study will also have implications on bushfire emergency management, design of emergency shelters, perception of danger, emergency evacuation and on risk assessment.

Road infrastructure vulnerability to groundwater table variation due to sea level rise

This study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of coastal road infrastructures due to climate change induced sea level rise and extreme weather conditions through the estimation of road subgrade strength reduction as a result of changes in soil moisture content. The study area located in the Gold Coast, Australia highlighted that the risk is significant. In wet seasons or areas with wet condition, the groundwater table is already high, so even a small change in the groundwater table can raise the risk of inundation; particularly, in areas with existing shallow groundwater. The predicted risk of a high groundwater table on road infrastructure is a long-term hazard. Therefore, there is time to undertake some management plans to decrease the possible risks, for instance, some deep root plants could be planted along the roads with a high level of risk, to decrease the groundwater table elevation.

Vision-based simultaneous localization and mapping in changing outdoor environments

For robots operating in outdoor environments, a number of factors, including weather, time of day, rough terrain, high speeds, and hardware limitations, make performing vision-based simultaneous localization and mapping with current techniques infeasible due to factors such as image blur and/or underexposure, especially on smaller platforms and low-cost hardware. In this paper, we present novel visual place-recognition and odometry techniques that address the challenges posed by low lighting, perceptual change, and low-cost cameras. Our primary contribution is a novel two-step algorithm that combines fast low-resolution whole image matching with a higher-resolution patch-verification step, as well as image saliency methods that simultaneously improve performance and decrease computing time. The algorithms are demonstrated using consumer cameras mounted on a small vehicle in a mixed urban and vegetated environment and a car traversing highway and suburban streets, at different times of day and night and in various weather conditions. The algorithms achieve reliable mapping over the course of a day, both when incrementally incorporating new visual scenes from different times of day into an existing map, and when using a static map comprising visual scenes captured at only one point in time. Using the two-step place-recognition process, we demonstrate for the first time single-image, error-free place recognition at recall rates above 50% across a day-night dataset without prior training or utilization of image sequences. This place-recognition performance enables topologically correct mapping across day-night cycles.

Scene signatures : localised and point-less features for localisation

This paper is about localising across extreme lighting and weather conditions. We depart from the traditional point-feature-based approach as matching under dramatic appearance changes is a brittle and hard thing. Point feature detectors are fixed and rigid procedures which pass over an image examining small, low-level structure such as corners or blobs. They apply the same criteria applied all images of all places. This paper takes a contrary view and asks what is possible if instead we learn a bespoke detector for every place. Our localisation task then turns into curating a large bank of spatially indexed detectors and we show that this yields vastly superior performance in terms of robustness in exchange for a reduced but tolerable metric precision. We present an unsupervised system that produces broad-region detectors for distinctive visual elements, called scene signatures, which can be associated across almost all appearance changes. We show, using 21km of data collected over a period of 3 months, that our system is capable of producing metric localisation estimates from night-to-day or summer-to-winter conditions.

Incorporating human-factors in car-following models : a review of recent developments and research needs

Over the past decades there has been a considerable development in the modeling of car-following (CF) behavior as a result of research undertaken by both traffic engineers and traffic psychologists. While traffic engineers seek to understand the behavior of a traffic stream, traffic psychologists seek to describe the human abilities and errors involved in the driving process. This paper provides a comprehensive review of these two research streams. It is necessary to consider human-factors in {CF} modeling for a more realistic representation of {CF} behavior in complex driving situations (for example, in traffic breakdowns, crash-prone situations, and adverse weather conditions) to improve traffic safety and to better understand widely-reported puzzling traffic flow phenomena, such as capacity drop, stop-and-go oscillations, and traffic hysteresis. While there are some excellent reviews of {CF} models available in the literature, none of these specifically focuses on the human factors in these models. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing the available literature with a specific focus on the latest advances in car-following models from both the engineering and human behavior points of view. In so doing, it analyses the benefits and limitations of various models and highlights future research needs in the area.

Superpixel-based appearance change prediction for long-term navigation across seasons

Changing environments pose a serious problem to current robotic systems aiming at long term operation under varying seasons or local weather conditions. This paper is built on our previous work where we propose to learn to predict the changes in an environment. Our key insight is that the occurring scene changes are in part systematic, repeatable and therefore predictable. The goal of our work is to support existing approaches to place recognition by learning how the visual appearance of an environment changes over time and by using this learned knowledge to predict its appearance under different environmental conditions. We describe the general idea of appearance change prediction (ACP) and investigate properties of our novel implementation based on vocabularies of superpixels (SP-ACP). Our previous work showed that the proposed approach significantly improves the performance of SeqSLAM and BRIEF-Gist for place recognition on a subset of the Nordland dataset under extremely different environmental conditions in summer and winter. This paper deepens the understanding of the proposed SP-ACP system and evaluates the influence of its parameters. We present the results of a large-scale experiment on the complete 10 h Nordland dataset and appearance change predictions between different combinations of seasons.

The links between public tendencies and the urban design framework of Brisbane’s public squares: Mapping urban design frameworks present in Brisbane public squares and the correlating activities of the Australian public

This research seeks to demonstrate the ways in which urban design factors, individually and in various well-considered arrangements, stimulate and encourage social activities in Brisbane’s public squares through the mapping and analysis of user behaviour. No design factors contribute to public space in isolation, so the combinations of different design factors, contextual and social impacts as well as local climate are considered to be highly influential to the way in which Brisbane’s public engages with public space. It is this local distinctiveness that this research seeks to ascertain. The research firstly pinpoints and consolidates the design factors identified and recommended in existing literature and then maps the identified factors as they are observed at case study sites in Brisbane. This is then set against observational mappings of the site’s corresponding user activities and engagement. These mappings identify a number of patterns of behaviour; pertinently that “activated” areas of social gathering actively draw people in, and the busier a space is, both the frequency and duration of people lingering in the space increases. The study finds that simply providing respite from the urban environment (and/or weather conditions) does not adequately encourage social interaction and that people friendly design factors can instigate social activities which, if coexisting in a public space, can themselves draw in further users of the space. One of the primary conclusions drawn from these observations is that members of the public in Brisbane are both actively and passively social and often seek out locations where “people-watching” and being around other members of the public (both categorised as passive social activities) are facilitated and encouraged. Spaces that provide respite from the urban environment but that do not sufficiently accommodate social connections and activities are less favourable and are often left abandoned despite their comparable tranquillity and available space.

Temporal and environmental influences on the vocal behaviour of a nocturnal bird

Temporal and environmental variation in vocal activity can provide information on avian behaviour and call function not available to short-term experimental studies. Intersexual differences in this variation can provide insight into selection effects. Yet factors influencing vocal behaviour have not been assessed in many birds, even those monitored by acoustic methods. This applies to the New Zealand kiwi (Apterygidae), for which call censuses are used extensively in conservation monitoring, yet which have poorly understood acoustic ecology. We investigated little spotted kiwi Apteryx owenii vocal behaviour over 3 yr, measuring influences on vocal activity in both sexes from time of night, season, weather conditions and lunar cycle. We tested hypotheses that call rate variation reflects call function, foraging efficiency, historic predation risk and variability in sound transmission, and that there are inter-sexual differences in call function. Significant seasonal variation showed that vocalisations were important in kiwi reproduction, and inter-sexual synchronisation of call rates indicated that contact, pair-bonding or resource defence were key functions. All weather variables significantly affected call rates, with elevated calling during increased humidity and ground moisture indicating a relation between vocal activity and foraging conditions. A significant decrease in calling activity on cloudy nights, combined with no moonlight effect, suggests an impact of light pollution in this species. These influences on vocal activity provide insight into kiwi call function, have direct consequences for conservation monitoring of kiwi, and have wider implications in understanding vocal behaviour in a range of nocturnal birds

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: An epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.

Structural characteristics of a giant tropical liana and its mode of canopy spread in an alien environment

To circumvent the practical difficulties in research on tropical rainforest lianas in their natural habitat due to prevailing weather conditions, dense camouflaging vegetation and problems in transporting equipment for experimental investigations, Entada pursaetha DC (syn. Entada scandens Benth., Leguminosae) was grown inside a research campus in a dry subtropical environment. A solitary genet has attained a gigantic size in 17 years, infesting crowns of semi-evergreen trees growing in an area roughly equivalent to 1.6 ha. It has used aerially formed, cable-like stolons for navigating and spreading its canopy across tree gaps. Some of its parts which had remained unseen in its natural habitat due to dense vegetation are described. The attained size of this liana in a climatically different environment raises the question as to why it is restricted to evergreen rainforests. Some research problems for which this liana will be useful are pointed out.

Inter-seasonal population dynamics and pest status of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) biotype B in an Australian cropping system

Bemisia tabaci, biotype B, commonly known as the silverleaf whitefly (SLW) is an alien species that invaded Australia in the mid-90s. This paper reports on the invasion ecology of SLW and the factors that are likely to have contributed to the first outbreak of this major pest in an Australian cotton cropping system, population dynamics of SLW within whitefly-susceptible crop (cotton and cucurbit) and non-crop vegetation (sowthistle, Sonchus spp.) components of the cropping system were investigated over four consecutive growing seasons (September-June) 2001/02-2004/05 in the Emerald Irrigation Area (EIA) of Queensland, Australia. Based on fixed geo-referenced sampling sites, variation in spatial and temporal abundance of SLW within each system component was quantified to provide baseline data for the development of ecologically sustainable pest management strategies. Parasitism of large (3rd and 4th instars) SLW nymphs by native aphelinid wasps was quantified to determine the potential for natural control of SLW populations. Following the initial outbreak in 2001/02, SLW abundance declined and stabilised over the next three seasons. The population dynamics of SLW is characterised by inter-seasonal population cycling between the non-crop (weed) and cotton components of the EIA cropping system. Cotton was the largest sink for and source of SLW during the study period. Over-wintering populations dispersed from weed host plant sources to cotton in spring followed by a reverse dispersal in late summer and autumn to broad-leaved crops and weeds. A basic spatial source-sink analysis showed that SLW adult and nymph densities were higher in cotton fields that were closer to over-wintering weed sources throughout spring than in fields that were further away. Cucurbit fields were not significant sources of SLW and did not appear to contribute significantly to the regional population dynamics of the pest. Substantial parasitism of nymphal stages throughout the study period indicates that native parasitoid species and other natural enemies are important sources of SLW mortality in Australian cotton production systems. Weather conditions and use of broad-spectrum insecticides for pest control are implicated in the initial outbreak and on-going pest status of SLW in the region.