The Polluter Profits Principle: A Note on the Grandfathering of CO2 Emissions Rights in Lax-Cap Trading Regimes

Grandfathering is currently the main principle for the initial allocation of tradable CO2 emission rights under the European cap-and-trade scheme. Furthermore, political feasibility often requires non-restrictive emission caps. Grandfathering under lax cap is unjust, biased and brings polluters unintended windfall profits. Still, in any post-Kyoto international CO2 regime, lax caps may be critical in coaxing binding emission targets out of more countries, especially those in the less-developed world. This paper argues that there is a certain quantity of emission rights between the initial and the optimal emissions, the grandfathering of which brings polluters zero windfall profits or zero windfall losses. Our theoretical concept of zero-windfall grandfathering can be used to demonstrate the windfall profits that have emerged at company level during the first EU trading period. It might thus encourage governments to embrace auctioning, and to combine it with grandfathering as a legitimate tool in the initial allocation of emission rights in later trading regimes.

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not represent those of a particular governmental agency or interagency body. This analysis was initiated at a Global Carbon Project meeting on NETs in Laxenburg, Austria, in April 2013 and contributes to the MaGNET program (http://www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/magnet.html). G.P.P. was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (236296). C.D.J. was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). J.G.C. acknowledges support from the Australian Climate Change Science Program. E.Ka. and Y.Y. were supported by the ERTDF (S-10) from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

A framework for measuring global Malmquist–Luenberger productivity index with CO2 emissions on Chinese manufacturing industries

China has achieved significant progress in terms of economic and social developments since implementation of reform and open policy in 1978. However, the rapid speed of economic growth in China has also resulted in high energy consumption and serious environmental problems, which hindering the sustainability of China's economic growth. This paper provides a framework for measuring eco-efficiency with CO2 emissions in Chinese manufacturing industries. We introduce a global Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index (GMLPI) that can handle undesirable factors within Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This study suggested after regulations imposed by the Chinese government, in the last stage of the analysis, i.e. during 2011–2012, the contemporaneous frontier shifts towards the global technology frontier in the direction of more desirable outputs and less undesirable outputs, i.e. producing less CO2 emissions, but the GMLPI drops slightly. This is an indication that the Chinese government needs to implement more policy regulations in order to maintain productivity index while reducing CO2 emissions.

Down scaling to regional assessment of greenhouse gas emissions to enable consistency in accounting for emissions reduction projects and national inventory accounts for northern beef production in Australia

This paper explores the effect of using regional data for livestock attributes on estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the northern beef industry in Australia, compared with using state/territory-wide values, as currently used in Australia’s national GHG inventory report. Regional GHG emissions associated with beef production are reported for 21 defined agricultural statistical regions within state/territory jurisdictions. A management scenario for reduced emissions that could qualify as an Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) project was used to illustrate the effect of regional level model parameters on estimated abatement levels. Using regional parameters, instead of state level parameters, for liveweight (LW), LW gain and proportion of cows lactating and an expanded number of livestock classes, gives a 5.2% reduction in estimated emissions (range +12% to –34% across regions). Estimated GHG emissions intensity (emissions per kilogram of LW sold) varied across the regions by up to 2.5-fold, ranging from 10.5 kg CO2-e kg–1 LW sold for Darling Downs, Queensland, through to 25.8 kg CO2-e kg–1 LW sold for the Pindan and North Kimberley, Western Australia. This range was driven by differences in production efficiency, reproduction rate, growth rate and survival. This suggests that some regions in northern Australia are likely to have substantial opportunities for GHG abatement and higher livestock income. However, this must be coupled with the availability of management activities that can be implemented to improve production efficiency; wet season phosphorus (P) supplementation being one such practice. An ERF case study comparison showed that P supplementation of a typical-sized herd produced an estimated reduction of 622 t CO2-e year–1, or 7%, compared with a non-P supplemented herd. However, the different model parameters used by the National Inventory Report and ERF project means that there was an anomaly between the herd emissions for project cattle excised from the national accounts (13 479 t CO2-e year–1) and the baseline herd emissions estimated for the ERF project (8 896 t CO2-e year–1) before P supplementation was implemented. Regionalising livestock model parameters in both ERF projects and the national accounts offers the attraction of being able to more easily and accurately reflect emissions savings from this type of emissions reduction project in Australia’s national GHG accounts.

The effect on CO2 emissions of taxing truck distance in retail transports

To finance transportation infrastructure and to address social and environmental negative externalities of road transports, several countries have recently introduced or consider a distance based tax on trucks. In competitive retail and transportation markets, such tax can be expected to lower the demand and thereby reduce CO2 emissions of road transports. However, as we show in this paper, such tax might also slow down the transition towards e-tailing. Considering that previous research indicates that a consumer switching from brick-and-mortar shopping to e-tailing reduces her CO2 emissions substantially, the direction and magnitude of the environmental net effect of the tax is unclear. In this paper, we assess the net effect in a Swedish regional retail market where the tax not yet is in place. We predict the net effect on CO2 emissions to be positive, but off-set by about 50% because of a slower transition to e-tailing.

Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks

Design and testing of innovative, artificial intelligence-based techniques to model and control the combustion process and to reduce the Co2 emissions in modern, high-performance, gasoline direct injection engines

This work deals with the development of calibration procedures and control systems to improve the performance and efficiency of modern spark ignition turbocharged engines. The algorithms developed are used to optimize and manage the spark advance and the air-to-fuel ratio to control the knock and the exhaust gas temperature at the turbine inlet. The described work falls within the activity that the research group started in the previous years with the industrial partner Ferrari S.p.a. . The first chapter deals with the development of a control-oriented engine simulator based on a neural network approach, with which the main combustion indexes can be simulated. The second chapter deals with the development of a procedure to calibrate offline the spark advance and the air-to-fuel ratio to run the engine under knock-limited conditions and with the maximum admissible exhaust gas temperature at the turbine inlet. This procedure is then converted into a model-based control system and validated with a Software in the Loop approach using the engine simulator developed in the first chapter. Finally, it is implemented in a rapid control prototyping hardware to manage the combustion in steady-state and transient operating conditions at the test bench. The third chapter deals with the study of an innovative and cheap sensor for the in-cylinder pressure measurement, which is a piezoelectric washer that can be installed between the spark plug and the engine head. The signal generated by this kind of sensor is studied, developing a specific algorithm to adjust the value of the knock index in real-time. Finally, with the engine simulator developed in the first chapter, it is demonstrated that the innovative sensor can be coupled with the control system described in the second chapter and that the performance obtained could be the same reachable with the standard in-cylinder pressure sensors.

Performance assessment of vehicular connectivity in hybrid electric vehicles for fuel and emissions reduction

Nowadays, the spreading of the air pollution crisis enhanced by greenhouse gases emission is leading to the worsening of global warming. Recently, several metropolitan cities introduced Zero-Emissions Zones where the use of the Internal Combustion Engine is forbidden to reduce localized pollutants emissions. This is particularly problematic for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, which usually work in depleting mode. In order to address these issues, the present thesis presents a viable solution by exploiting vehicular connectivity to retrieve navigation data of the urban event along a selected route. The battery energy needed, in the form of a minimum State of Charge (SoC), is calculated by a Speed Profile Prediction algorithm and a Backward Vehicle Model. That value is then fed to both a Rule-Based Strategy, developed specifically for this application, and an Adaptive Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (A-ECMS). The effectiveness of this approach has been tested with a Connected Hardware-in-the-Loop (C-HiL) on a driving cycle measured on-road, stimulating the predictions with multiple re-routings. However, even if hybrid electric vehicles have been recognized as a valid solution in response to increasingly tight regulations, the reduced engine load and the repeated engine starts and stops may reduce substantially the temperature of the exhaust after-treatment system (EATS), leading to relevant issues related to pollutant emission control. In this context, electrically heated catalysts (EHCs) represent a promising solution to ensure high pollutant conversion efficiency without affecting engine efficiency and performance. This work aims at studying the advantages provided by the introduction of a predictive EHC control function for a light-duty Diesel plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) equipped with a Euro 7-oriented EATS. Based on the knowledge of future driving scenarios provided by vehicular connectivity, engine first start can be predicted and therefore an EATS pre-heating phase can be planned.

REENGINEERING THE CONCEPT OF URBAN CARS: A CASE STUDY

Based on a previously developed mathematical model for fuel consumption of a modular car, here we discuss the cross impacts of engineering scenarios vs. flexibility in use for modular vehicle architectures to achieve the reduction of CO2 emissions targeted by the European Union, in 2009. A systems perspective is adopted in conceptualizing a modular architecture of vehicles. From a theoretical viewpoint, we found modular architecture of vehicles a potential design strategy to minimize fuel inefficiencies and, thus, a strategy for design for environment.

Optimal brake specific fuel consumption trajectory for stand-alone variable speed Diesel Gen-Set

Energy efficiency plays an important role to the CO2 emissions reduction, combating climate change and improving the competitiveness of the economy. The problem presented here is related to the use of stand-alone diesel gen-sets and its high specific fuel consumptions when operates at low loads. The variable speed gen-set concept is explained as an energy-saving solution to improve this system efficiency. This paper details how an optimum fuel consumption trajectory based on experimentally Diesel engine power map is obtained.

Ecological Footprint Inequality: A methodological review and some results

Scarcities of environmental services are no longer merely a remote hypothesis. Consequently, analysis of their inequalities between nations becomes of paramount importance for the achievement of sustainability in terms either of international policy, or of Universalist ethical principles of equity. This paper aims, on the one hand, at revising methodological aspects of the inequality measurement of certain environmental data and, on the other, at extending the scarce empirical evidence relating to the international distribution of Ecological Footprint (EF), by using a longer EF time series. Most of the techniques currently important in the literature are revised and then tested on EF data with interesting results. We look in depth at Lorenz dominance analyses and consider the underlying properties of different inequality indices. Those indices which fit best with environmental inequality measurements are CV2 and GE(2) because of their neutrality property, however a trade-off may occur when subgroup decompositions are performed. A weighting factor decomposition method is proposed in order to isolate weighting factor changes in inequality growth rates. Finally, the only non-ambiguous way of decomposing inequality by source is the natural decomposition of CV2, which additionally allows the interpretation of marginal term contributions. Empirically, this paper contributes to the environmental inequality measurement of EF: this inequality has been quite stable and its change over time is due to per capita vector changes rather than population changes. Almost the entirety of the EF inequality is explainable by differences in the means between the countries of the World Bank group. This finding suggests that international environmental agreements should be attempted on a regional basis in an attempt to achieve greater consensus between the parties involved. Additionally, source decomposition warns of the dangers of confining CO2 emissions reduction to crop-based energies because of the implications for basic needs satisfaction.

Ecological Footprint Inequality: A methodological review and some results

Scarcities of environmental services are no longer merely a remote hypothesis. Consequently, analysis of their inequalities between nations becomes of paramount importance for the achievement of sustainability in terms either of international policy, or of Universalist ethical principles of equity. This paper aims, on the one hand, at revising methodological aspects of the inequality measurement of certain environmental data and, on the other, at extending the scarce empirical evidence relating to the international distribution of Ecological Footprint (EF), by using a longer EF time series. Most of the techniques currently important in the literature are revised and then tested on EF data with interesting results. We look in depth at Lorenz dominance analyses and consider the underlying properties of different inequality indices. Those indices which fit best with environmental inequality measurements are CV2 and GE(2) because of their neutrality property, however a trade-off may occur when subgroup decompositions are performed. A weighting factor decomposition method is proposed in order to isolate weighting factor changes in inequality growth rates. Finally, the only non-ambiguous way of decomposing inequality by source is the natural decomposition of CV2, which additionally allows the interpretation of marginal term contributions. Empirically, this paper contributes to the environmental inequality measurement of EF: this inequality has been quite stable and its change over time is due to per capita vector changes rather than population changes. Almost the entirety of the EF inequality is explainable by differences in the means between the countries of the World Bank group. This finding suggests that international environmental agreements should be attempted on a regional basis in an attempt to achieve greater consensus between the parties involved. Additionally, source decomposition warns of the dangers of confining CO2 emissions reduction to crop-based energies because of the implications for basic needs satisfaction. Keywords: ecological footprint; ecological inequality measurement, inequality decomposition.

Domestic energy models: complexities in defining specific tools

The domestic (residential) sector accounts for 30% of the world’s energy consumption hence plays a substantial role in energy management and CO2 emissions reduction efforts. Energy models have been generally developed to mitigate the impact of climate change and for the sustainable management and planning of energy resources. Although there are different models and model categories, they are generally categorised into top down and bottom up. Significantly, top down models are based on aggregated data while bottom up models are based on disaggregated data. These approaches create fundamental differences which have been the centre of debate since the 1970’s. These differences have led to noticeable discrepancies in results which have led to authors arguing that the models are of a more complementary than a substituting nature. As a result developing methods suggest that there is the need to integrate either the two models (bottom up − top down) or aspects that combine two bottom up models or an upgrade of top down models to compensate for the documented limitations. Diverse schools of thought argue in favour of these integrations – currently known as hybrid models. In this paper complexities of identifying country specific and/or generic domestic energy models and their applications in different countries have been critically reviewed. Predominantly from the review it is evident that most of these methods have been adapted and used in the ‘western world’ with practically no such applications in Africa.

Short-term CO2-C emissions from soil prior to sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) replanting in southern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Using economic instruments to address emissions from air transport in the European Union

Air transport has become a vital component of the global economy. However, greenhouse-gas emissions from this sector have a significant impact on global climate, being responsible for over 3.5% of all anthropogenic radiative forcing. Also, the accrued visibility of aircraft emissions greatly affects the public image of the industry. In this context, incentive-based regulations, in the form of price or quantity controls, can be envisaged as alternatives to mitigate these emissions. The use of environmental charges in air transport, and the inclusion of the sector in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), are considered under a range of scenarios. The impacts of these measures on demand are estimated, and results suggest that they are likely to be minimal-mainly due to the high willingness to pay for air transport. In particular, in the EU ETS scenario currently favoured by the EU, demand reductions are less than 2%. This may not be true in the longer run, for short trips, or if future caps become more stringent. Furthermore, given current estimates of the social Cost Of CO2 as well as typical EU ETS prices, supply-side abatement would be too costly to be encouraged by these policies in the short term. The magnitude of aviation CO2 emissions in the EU is estimated, both in physical and monetary terms; the results are consistent with Eurocontrol estimates and, for the EU-25, the total social cost of these emissions represents only 0.03% of the region`s GDP. It is concluded that the use of multisector policies, such as the EU ETS, is unsuitable for curbing emissions from air transport, and that stringent emission charges or an isolated ETS would be better instruments. However, the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS has advantages under target-oriented post-2012 scenarios, such as policy-costs dilution, certainty in reductions, and flexibility in abatement allocation. This solution is also attractive to airlines, as it would improve their public image but require virtually no reduction of their own emissions, as they would be fully capable of passing on policy costs to their customers.