A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

Perfil exportador e crescimento econômico: uma análise de painel para economias africanas

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the export profile and the African GDP growth rate. Chapter 1 presents the literature on the subject and studies that analyze the specific case of Africa. There seems to be a consensus that exports contribute to economic growth. However, there is no consensus on the benefits that are incorporated from exported products. The divergence lies between the approach of the Natural Resources Curse, where concentration of exports in commodities does not contribute to economic growth. Another work line supports the idea there is no such relation. Chapter 2 presents, through descriptive analysis, macroeconomic and international trade data for African economies data. Based on data from 52 countries for the period 1990-2014, it can be observed that the African continent has improved in macroeconomic terms, with increased exports and economic growth rates, suggesting a positive relationship between the variables. Trade indicators show Africa's integration into the global economy, with European Union, USA, China and some emerging countries as main partners. In addition, the analysis showed that the export is concentrated in oil and agricultural commodities. Most African countries face a negative trade balance, depending of primary products exports with low added value and imports of manufactured goods. Finally, Chapter 3 presents an empirical research using panel data analysis. The results suggest, in general, evidences that exports are important for explaining the African economic growth rate of African economies can be stimulated by the expansion of the share of exports in GDP. The estimated coefficients are positive and statistically significant in both the fixed effect estimation, as the estimation by GMM System. The estimation of growth models for fixed or random effects indicates a direct and statistically significant relationship between export oil / minerals and the growth rate of African countries. Thus, the export profile turns out to be important to determine the growth rate. The results obtained from the estimates do not corroborate the literature arguments called Curse of Natural Resources for the period analyzed, since export natural resources, especially oil and minerals, were relevant to explain the performance of the growth rate of economies.

O produtor familiar na pecuária leiteira : limites e potencialidades

The technological change is nowadays, comprehended as a playing field which involves cultural and economic processes of appreciation and depreciation of the social aspects of family unit. The exclusion of small producers from the activity is used as an argument to characterize that in the contemporary intercapitalist competition, the family ways of production take up restrict social positions of a technical progress and of a cultural and economic appreciation. The state, a coparcener of the modernization process, has its relevance as a financing agent, a technical capacitor, an infrastructure propitiator, that is, through macro and microeconomic policies which can create sustainable conditions to permit, mainly, not only the family producer to be inserted in the activity, but, above all, to remain in it. This way, this study aims to identify and analyze the family producer, through its limits and potentialities, with a thesis that this would be the main agent responsible for boosting the Brazilian milk production in quantity and quality. Therefore, results were compared obtained from a field survey with data collection via semi-structured open interviews in a sample of 108 producers effectively respondents, namely: 59 family farmers with active DAP (research focus) and 49 employers producers the municipality of Monte Alegre de Minas - MG. Technological indices were used to identify the developmental stage of the producers, thus allowing a comparative study between them. The field research covered all rural municipality of Monte Alegre de Minas – MG and, the result found that the majority of family farmers presented lower rates than technological employers producers. However, it allowed us to state also that the producer family and assisted by public policies, can be the agent of transformation of dairy farming.

Padrão de especialização comercial e crescimento econômico : uma análise sobre o Brasil no contexto da fragmentação da produção e das cadeias globais de valor

Globalization and technological changes that has happened since the 80s have brought remarkable changes in the industrial and commercial paradigm, which are expressed mainly in the international fragmentation of production and in the formation of Global Value Chains (GVC). This thesis sought to understand such phenomena and discuss new relevant variables in this context for a more accurate analysis of the current trade patterns not addressed by the seminal economic theories that relate trade and economic growth. It sought to evaluate how the trade specialization pattern of Brazil evolved compared to other economies (China, India, Russia, United States, Japan and selected Latin American economies) in the light of these phenomena from 1995 to 2011. Therefore, we have used the methodology of gross exports decomposition in value added measures, developed by Koopman et al. (2014), and indicators estimated from data of two global matrices I-O: a WIOT (2013) and the TiVA (2015). It was also tested two hypotheses regarding the role of these phenomena as determinants of economic growth in recent years: 1º) fragmentation and participation in GVC ensure higher growth rates for countries; 2º) the place (stage) in which the country finds itself in GVC associated with sectoral technological aspects is also important for economic growth. For this, we used dynamic panel models (Difference GMM and System GMM) for a sample of 40 countries from 2003 to 2011. The studies carried out on Brazil show that the country is no longer on the margins of these phenomena, because it shows increasing rates of participation in GVC, including in sectors considered most strategic for fragmentation. However, there is not a standard convergence of trade specialization of the country to those presented by developed countries or movements earned by China and Mexico in terms of their position and profile of participating in GVC. Another important result obtained by the thesis is the identification of these phenomena are in fact new variables relevant for economic growth, because it shows empirical evidences to support the hypothesis 1 and, partially, the hypothesis 2. A joint analysis of the estimated econometric results with the results of the descriptive analysis of the Brazilian economy, it leads us to conclude that the trade specialization pattern of the country in the context of the new trade setups is presented unfavorably to its growth strategy.

Dinâmica industrial, emprego e pobreza no Brasil, uma abordagem alternativa

Between 2003 and 2014 Brazil has increased exports by 52%, increased the formal employment and paid employment by 19% and reduced multidimensional poverty by 42%. The purpose of this work is to test the hypothesis that there is a Brazilian Growth Virtuous Circle where these three variables would be connected in order to increase exports and reduce poverty through the salaries transfer of funds. The construction of the hypothesis is made for Export Industry through ideas Verdoorn, Kaldor and Thirlwall presenting the export industry as an engine of economic growth. To present employment acting directly on economic growth is used Wage Led Rowthorn approach. The Capability Approach of Amartya Sen is used to understand the Multidimensional Poverty. The hypothesis was tested using data from the National Household Survey and Aliceweb between 2003 and 2014 with the use of the Generalized Method of Moments and the generation of elasticities between export and employment, employment and poverty, and export and poverty.

Restrição externa, dependência estrutural de commodities primárias e o investimento direto externo no Brasil

As the beginning of the discussion about the reprimarization process of the Brazilian exportations, or about a deindustrialization process of the country foreign sales, this study purpose that the discussion, actually, should be about the existence of the commodities structural dependence as a way to face the foreign restrictions. Therefore the intention is to show that, historically, the way that the Brazilian economy has crossed for its development depends of the foreign capital, mainly in its way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in the balance generated by the primary products, which make us try to understand the impact of this capital for the equilibrium of the Brazilian Payment Balance and also for the economy. These points were discussed not only based on the Brazilian classic writers as Francisco Oliveira, Caio Prado Jr. and Celso Furtado, but also using the newest studies which contributes to point the causes and consequences of the external capital dependence in the actual scenario. The conclusions acquired in the end of the study, indicates the fact that the Brazilian specialization in products of low aggregated value is not recent. Brazil is, historically, a competitive country in primary products. At the same time, the country importation always was a pressure factor of the National Payments Balance, being composed by products with more aggregated value. According to some authors, this characteristic of the Brazilian Economy will be surpassed with the economic opening process, which will attract external capital making possible the modernization of the Brazilian productive sector. Therefore, we can claim that the FDI, in the way it has been inserted in the country, does not offer the opportunity to get out of the commodities dependence, as generators of the payment balances, because the country international competitive standard didn t get any important changes, keeping itself out of the step related to the global standard which has been intensified in products with more aggregated value. The changes in the national insertion standard directed to more technological products is really important to surpass the historical scenario of commodities dependence, making the country less vulnerable to external crisis.

Padrão de especialização e saldo comercial da China com Estados Unidos, Europa e Ásia no início do Século XXI

The rise of China has been providing various effects on developed and developing countries, particularly its Asian neighbors which compete in third markets, such as the U.S., Europe and Japan this sense, the present study aimed to analyze the pattern of Chinese trade with two different groups of countries: the Asian neighbors (Asian Tigers and Dragons) and developed countries (United States, Europe and Japan) during the 2000s. To this end, this paper adopts the methodology of second breakdown of trade technological intensity proposed by Lall (2000). Furthermore, to analyze the intensity of trade between these economies as well as potential threats over their Chinese business partners close, we calculated the following indicators of trade: Trade Intensity Index (TII), Trade Orientation Index (TOI) , Intra-Industry Trade Index (ICII), Index Of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and, finally, the Contribution To The Balance Index (ICS). The main result achieved is the existence of China\'s trade patterns differ for each group of countries, according to the type of expertise of each partner.

Esgotamento do padrão de acumulação de capital e política econômica brasileira: do II PND aos anos 2000

This work aim to show that the reach to the limits of capital accumulation, which is showing its first signs since the 60 s, has and still is exercising great importance in Brazilian economic policies. In the first chapter, we establish a reference to what is understood as the limit of capital accumulation after World War II and how the accumulation process drives itself to its own limits. In the following chapters, we detach the importance of the reached limit to the most relevant moments of Brazilian economic policy. Since the IIPND, when the first signs of influence raise in Brazilian economy, passing through the stabilizing attempts during the 80 s and 90 s and the emergence of the pro-market State in Brazil, until the 00 s, when macroeconomic prudence took shape and delimited the conduction of the country s economic policy, we will show how the limit of capital accumulation has played an important role.

Estrutura produtiva da agropecuária, ocupação e pobreza no estado de Minas Gerais no ano de 2010

This thesis aimed to contribute to the discussion about the relationship between agricultural production structure, occupation and poverty in Brazil, specifically in the state of Minas Gerais, in 2010. The issue of employment is becoming increasingly challenging in the face of ongoing modernization process in agriculture, capital intensive and labor saver looking levels ever higher production and productivity. The productive inclusion can be an effective way to exit from poverty (the work is often the only asset of the poor). In this sense, we sought to investigate what activities or groups of activities occupied a larger number of people and generated higher yields and can potentially have contributed to a lower incidence of poverty. The basis for primary data was the 2010 Population Census (microdata). To achieve the objectives we used descriptive analysis, Pearson correlation coefficients and quantile regressions. Among the main findings highlight that agriculture occupied more and generated higher overall income than ranching presented more precarious, despite having lower average incomes and income percentile values, greater heterogeneity and instability, as well as higher proportions of poor. Overall, commodities showed greater formalization and lower poor proportions. In the case of agriculture, commodities activities occupied less, generated lower mass income and middle-income (although income percentiles slightly larger and more informality) and had lower poverty indicators than non-commodity (more heterogeneous rents). In livestock, commodities had higher percentages of occupation, income (although middle-income values and percentiles slightly smaller), and smaller proportions of poor than non-commodity (more heterogenous). In terms of occupation and income stood out the farming activities unspecified (non-commodity), the coffee growing and cattle (commodities). The cultivation of coffee and cattle had the lowest poverty indicators. agricultural production diversification indicators showed positive correlations with the occupation in activities not commodities (only), but also with the proportion of poor, indigent and concentration of income. In addition, the occupation in not commodities showed positive correlations with poverty indicators. It is noteworthy that the occupations in soybeans, coffee and fruit showed negative correlation coefficients with the indicators of poverty, indigence and gini. Finally, among the agricultural activities, there was to go to occupied in agricultural activities not commodities for commodity would be 'more equalizer' (decreasing coefficients over the distribution of income) than for cattle. The occupation in livestock (mostly non-commodity) would generate greater impact on the lower income deciles, but their coefficients grow back in the last deciles, which shows its most perverse character. Among the activities that would affect more strongly the lower deciles and less the higher deciles stand out pig farming, poultry, citrus cultivation, coffee and sugar cane. The cattle and the cultivation of soy, had the highest rates, but they grow back in the last deciles, which shows a more wicked character.

A formação e o desenvolvimento de arranjos cooperativos sob a ótica da imersão social e da economia dos custos de transação: um estrudo de caso na Coopercam e na Unipesca

The current study analyzes the birth and development of two strategic alliances established between shrimp producers in Rio Grande do Norte: the Unipesca and the Coopercam. To achieve this aim, two approaches which, at first sight, could be considered contradictory were used: the Transactional Costs Economy and Embeddedness. The first approach is fundamentally based in the studies of Williamson (1985; 1991; 1996; 1999; 2000; 2002). Embededness, on the other hand, went through the review of a series of authors, such as Burt (1992), Granovetter (1973; 1985), Uzzi (1997), Gulati (1994; 1995; 1997; 1998; 1999; 2000), Nielsen (2005), Ring (2002), Ring and Van de Ven (1994), Zafirovski (2002), among others. To analyze the birth and development of the cooperatives in this study, Gulati s work (1998) was used. This study shows the steps to be studied for a better comprehension of an alliance: the decision of starting an alliance and the choice of the partners, the decision about the governance structure, the evolution of the alliance and the development of the companies which established this partnership. To carry this study out, a study case accordingly to Yin s proposal (2001) was adopted. Semi-structured interviews with pre-defined plots were conducted in two phases: in the beginning of 2006 and in the beginning of 2007. The subjects from the research were, in 2006, representative members of the main associations and corporations, besides the shrimp producers from the state, when the context of the activity was set. In the second phase, in 2007, representative members from the two cooperatives that were listed above were interviewed the president from Coopercam and the marketing manager from Unipesca. Besides these two members, directors from two important organizations in each of these cooperatives were also interviewed, giving out the necessary information for the research. Secondary data was also collected from the Brazilian Association of Crab producers website, as well as from news from important newspapers in RN, such as Tribuna do Norte. The primary data was analyzed in terms of quality, accordingly to the documental analysis technique. Thus, through the data that was collected, it can be concluded that the reasons that motivated the companies to cooperate can be explained in terms of the transactional costs economy. However, the choice of partners is more connected to aspects approached by the social embededness. When aspects related to development and evolution were analyzed, it could be seen that both aspects from TCE and Embededness were vital to explain the development of the cooperatives mentioned

Caracterização da economia solidária à luz do ambiente isonômico de guerreiro ramos: um estudo no grupo mulheres decididas a vencer

The Solidary Economy is an area that has shown unusual traits to what is preached in the traditional economic organizations, even organizations that have very similar principles, as some cooperatives. This trait is approaching the concept of isonomy proposed by Ramos (1989). Given this context, and the notion that the isonomy is like a ideal type, the objective this work was to evidence particulars of isonomic environment the in economic and solidarity experiences, taking as an empirical research area the Grupo de Mulheres Decididas a Vencer, considered a solidary economic enterprise. For this, we used the descriptive-exploratory research of qualitative nature, where the object of such research is the know enterprise, therefore, also characterized as a case study, which were taken as research subjects six associates, they being the most active in the enterprise. From the five categories that characterize isonomy - minimum standards prescribing, self-gratifying activity, activities undertaken as a vocation, wide system of making decision and primaries interpersonal relations - and from the traits of a solidary economic enterprise the data analysis was built, through content analysis, specifically the categorial analysis. Given this context and reality in which it is Grupo de Mulheres Decididas a Vencer, with minimal rules and procedures for conducting activities, comparing them to a therapy, women choosing to insert in that environment, faced with a democratic space and unfettered bureaucracy in professional interpersonal relationships, in others words, an organizational space where they were shown signs of substantive rationality was possible to conclude that the Group will share experiences and characteristics of isonomy. This disclosure meets the multidimensional social that presupposes Paraecomomic Paradigm, enabling man to enter in different social environments of the economy in order to search for self-actualization

Economia solidária e relações de gênero na agricultura familiar: o caso do grupo produtivo mulheres decididas a vencer

The Women s experiences in the private sphere under the work s field changes the family relationship allowing them more freedom, autonomy and independence. The inequalities, socially built, homemade women s obligations results in discrimination, difficult to insert and recovery on female s job in a job s market, including low salary if compared with men s and difficult to services access in addiction a difficult daily life and in domestic sphere. The women s organisation in productive groups or economically solidary enterprises (ESE) torn possible the social economically organisations and politicians to promote deep changes in a domestically e socially relationship, positioning, for example, women s in publics areas and in the rout of emancipation. The objective of this search are understand men and women relationship in the family agriculture s field starts insert women in economically solidary enterprises (ESE) on Mulunguzinho s settlement (Mossoró/RN). The theoretical framework is inspirited Economical Solidary concept kind division s job and women s empowerment. This search had a qualitative character and exploration through case s study on Mulheres decididas a vencer s group. The secondary information was create through theoretical framework and information collected through semi-structured interviews based in interviews applied for women and yours respective husbands by criterion for women participation on productive activities of beekeeping culture of goat and sheep. This study turns possible conclude that the women s participations in productive groups in solidary economical change significantly their life and their family life. The group s organisations process, the training was received, the collective production, the marketing and the mobilized participation to move it all was fundamental for women share with their families partners some homemade and take care with the children. This finding confirm a different aspect not economical in solidary economy overcoming the monetary value in associative relationship observing principally individuals well-being and the concern with the form of reproduction this way of life in the associated

Normas tributárias indutoras na concretização do princípio constitucional da redução das desigualdades sociais e regionais

The Federal Constitution states that the reduction of social and regional inequalities is one of the goals to be achieved by the Brasilian State. The economic constitution states that the national economy must be developed so as to achieve, amongst other objectives, the reduction of those inequalities. In this paper, we aim to demonstrate the duty, imposed by the Constitution to the State, of acting in the national economy so as to promote the achievement of the constitutional goals, among wich we highlight the reduction of inequalities. One of the instruments that can be used by the State to achieve this objective is its fiscal policy. It is also an aim in this paper to demonstrate that inducing tax norms can be used by the State, because it can encourage the economic agents to bring about the reduction of social and regional inequalities. Therefore, after bibliographic and jurisprudential research, we conclude that the duty, imposed to the State, of acting in the national economy so as to promote the achievement of the constitutional goals exists. We also conclude that this acting must be planed and constant, because the consequences are slow and that, within the limits of the constitution, the inducing tax norms can be an instrument for the State in order to reduct the social and regional inequalities

Tributação, finanças públicas e política fiscal: uma análise sob a óptica do direito e economia

In the Brazilian legal scenario, the study of taxation has traditionally been restricted to positivist analysis, concerned with investigating the formal aspects of the tax legal rule. Despite its relevance to the formation of the national doctrine of tax, such formalist tradition limits the discipline, separating it from reality and the socioeconomic context in which the Tax Law is inserted. Thus, the proposal of the dissertation is to examine the fundamentals and nature of taxation and tax legal rules from the perspective of Law and Economics (Economic Analysis of Law). For this purpose, the work initially reconnects the Tax Law and Science of Finance (or Public Finance) and Fiscal Policy, undertaking not only a legal analysis, but also economic and financial analysis of the theme. The Economics of Public Sector (or Modern Public Finance) will contribute to the research through topics such as market failures and economic theory of taxation, which are essential to an economic approach to Tax Law. The core of the work lies in the application of Law and Economics instruments in the study of taxation, analyzing the effects of tax rules on the economic system. Accordingly, the dissertation examines the fundamental assumptions that make up the Economic Analysis of Law (as the concept of economic efficiency and its relation to equity), relating them to the tax phenomenon. Due to the nature of the Brazilian legal system, any worth investigation or approach, including Law and Economics, could not pass off the Constitution. Thus, the constitutional rules will serve as a limit and a prerequisite for the application of Law and Economics on taxation, particularly the rules related to property rights, freedom, equality and legal certainty. The relationship between taxation and market failures receives prominent role, particularly due to its importance to the Law and Economics, as well as to the role that taxation plays in the correction of these failures. In addition to performing a review of taxation under the approach of Economic Analysis of Law, the research also investigates the reality of Brazilian tax system, applying the concepts developed in relevant cases and issues to the national scene, such as the relationship between taxation and development, the compliance costs of taxation, the tax evasion and the tax enforcement procedure. Given the above, it is intended to lay the groundwork for a general theory of Economic Analysis of Tax Law, contextualizing it with the Brazilian tax system

Turismo e economia solidária : uma análise nas cooperativas e associações de artesanato do Roteiro Seridó norte-rio-grandense

The present study has addressed the issues surrounding the Solidarity Economy and Tourism, their perspectives and contributions to the development process of local communities, as well as the connection point between the two. This study evaluated the extent to which social economy through cooperatives and associations in tourism has generated socio-economic improvements for the artisans of the tourist Seridó. The study made as to their objectives, was exploratory and descriptive, since it involved both standard techniques of data collection, questionnaires and systematic observation, and secondary research and case studies, which characterizes an exploratory research, according to Castro (2008 ). The results indicate significant improvements offered by the inclusion of members in groups (associations and cooperatives) in matters concerning health, education, interpersonal relationships, and access to consumer credit to the artisans. Through this study, one might also note that the inclusion of products and services in tourism is not a relevant factor for the socio-economic improvements observed for the elevated presence of middlemen in the marketing process