Relationship between El Nino and summer monsoon rainfall over Pakistan

The present paper deals with the influence of El Nino event on the summer monsoon rainfall over Pakistan. The correlation between monthly rainfall of summer monsoon season and bi-Monthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) has been calculated to see the influence of El Nino on the summer monsoon rainfall. MEI is bimonthly ENSO Index pertaining to the period from first week of previous month to first week of the month under consideration. While study the correlation's with the ENSO events out side the Pacific Ocean MEI is more appropriate than other indices like Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as MEI integrates complete information on ENSO viz. six oceanic and meteorological variables over the tropical Pacific. The results of the study show that there is a tendency of reduction in summer monsoon rainfall over Pakistan during El Nino years. The deficiency in % rainfall is statistically significant up to 90% level during July and September months. It is interesting to note that Pakistan receives more than normal rainfall during summer monsoon season in the immediate following year after the El Nino event. The correlation analysis is also performed on the summer monsoon months for individual provinces of Pakistan. All provinces receive deficient rainfall during monsoon months. The deficiency in rainfall over Punjab during all monsoon months is significant, whereas the deficiency in rainfall is significant during July and August over NWFP and Sindh respectively. No significant impact of El Nino on the summer monsoon rainfall over Baluchistan is observed.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

El Nino phenomenon in simple ocean data assimilation data

To study how the air and sea interact with each other during El Nino/La Nina onsets, extended associate pattern analysis (EAPA) is adopted with the simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) data. The results show that as El Nino/La Nina's parents their behaviors are quite different, there does not exist a relatively independent tropical atmosphere but does exist a relatively independent tropical Pacific Ocean because the air is heated from the bottom surface instead of the top surface and of much stronger baroclinic instability than the sea and has a very large inter-tropical convergence zone covering the most tropical Pacific Ocean. The idea that it is the wester burst and wind convergence, coming from middle latitudes directly that produce the seawater eastward movement and meridional convergence in the upper levels and result in the typical El Nino sea surface temperature warm signal is confirmed again.

The life of Father de Smet, S.J. (1801-1873) by E. Laveille, S.J., authorized translation by Marian Lindsay, introduction by Charles Coppens ...

http://www.archive.org/details/lifeoffatherdesm00laverich

Acoustic behaviour, ecology and social structure of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus, Montagu 1821) in the North Atlantic

Communication is important for social and other behavioural interactions in most marine mammal species. The bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus, Montagu, 1821) is a highly social species that use whistles as communication calls to express identity and to initiate and maintain contact between socially interactive individuals. In this thesis, the degree of variability in whistle behaviour and whistle characteristics was examined between different habitats on a range of spatial scales. The whistle characteristics that best discriminated between different communities were investigated, along with exploration of whistle variation in relation to habitat type, levels of social interaction and relatedness. Finally, the use and variability of individually distinctive calls (signature whistles) within and between Irish and US waters were also examined. Relatively high levels of whistle variation were found within a genetically and socially isolated population of dolphins in the Shannon Estuary, reflecting the need for individual identification and distinctive whistles in a population with long term site fidelity and high levels of social cohesion. Variation between reproductively separate communities in Irish waters was relatively small except between animals in inshore compared with continental shelf waters. The greatest differences in whistle structure overall were evident between dolphins using inshore and offshore US waters, likely reflecting social isolation of the two distinct ecotypes that occur in these waters but also variation in behaviour or habitat conditions. Variation found among inshore communities in US waters reflected similarities in habitat use and levels of social interaction. These findings suggest that vocal variation is socially mediated, behaviourally maintained and dependent on levels of social contact between individuals. The findings contribute to our understanding of the interaction of factors influencing vocalisation behaviour in this behaviourally complex and ecologically plastic species.

Cultura política, actores e discursos nos alvores do Liberalismo : revisitar a revolução de 1821 nos Açores

O presente estudo consiste numa análise da cultura política no início do Liberalismo em Portugal, centrada sobre os deputados micaelenses nas Cortes Portuguesas que emergiram da revolução liberal de 1820 e, por outro lado, numa revisitação da revolução de 1821 em Ponta Delgada. Nesse contexto, a proposta de projecto apresentada por um dos deputados que visava a abolição dos vínculos na ilha de São Miguel e nos Açores foi o mote para esta dissertação. Visitamos a conjuntura de outro espaço atlântico na mesma época, a Madeira, de modo a conduzirmos uma avaliação comparativa, mantendo o quadro atlântico em perspectiva. Recorremos, por fim, à biografia de um deputado para obtermos uma escala de observação mais próxima da dinâmica política.

Virtuosismo para instrumentário de sopro em Lisboa (1821-1870)

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências Musicais