Bayes linear spaces

Linear spaces consisting of σ-finite probability measures and infinite measures (improper priors and likelihood functions) are defined. The commutative group operation, called perturbation, is the updating given by Bayes theorem; the inverse operation is the Radon-Nikodym derivative. Bayes spaces of measures are sets of classes of proportional measures. In this framework, basic notions of mathematical statistics get a simple algebraic interpretation. For example, exponential families appear as affine subspaces with their sufficient statistics as a basis. Bayesian statistics, in particular some well-known properties of conjugated priors and likelihood functions, are revisited and slightly extended

Social factors related to the clinical severity of influenza cases in Spain during the A(H1N1)2009 virus pandemic

Background During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a change in the type of patients most often affected by influenza was observed. The objective of this study was to assess the role of individual and social determinants in hospitalizations due to influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods We studied hospitalized patients (cases) and outpatients (controls) with confirmed influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data. Variables that might be related to the hospitalization of influenza cases were compared by estimation of the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and the variables entered into binomial logistic regression models. Results Hospitalization due to pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections was associated with non-Caucasian ethnicity (OR: 2.18, 95% CI 1.17 − 4.08), overcrowding (OR: 2.84, 95% CI 1.20 − 6.72), comorbidity and the lack of previous preventive information (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.50 − 4.83). Secondary or higher education was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization (OR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.36 − 0.87) Conclusions In addition to individual factors such as comorbidity, other factors such as educational level, ethnicity or overcrowding were associated with hospitalization due to A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections.

Pediatric reference intervals for plasma free and total metanephrines established with a parametric approach: Relevance to the diagnosis of neuroblastoma.

BACKGROUND: Urine catecholamines, vanillylmandelic, and homovanillic acid are recognized biomarkers for the diagnosis and follow-up of neuroblastoma. Plasma free (f) and total (t) normetanephrine (NMN), metanephrine (MN) and methoxytyramine (MT) could represent a convenient alternative to those urine markers. The primary objective of this study was to establish pediatric centile charts for plasma metanephrines. Secondarily, we explored their diagnostic performance in 10 patients with neuroblastoma. PROCEDURE: We recruited 191 children (69 females) free of neuroendocrine disease to establish reference intervals for plasma metanephrines, reported as centile curves for a given age and sex based on a parametric method using fractional polynomials models. Urine markers and plasma metanephrines were measured in 10 children with neuroblastoma at diagnosis. Plasma total metanephrines were measured by HPLC with coulometric detection and plasma free metanephrines by tandem LC-MS. RESULTS: We observed a significant age-dependence for tNMN, fNMN, and fMN, and a gender and age-dependence for tMN, fNMN, and fMN. Free MT was below the lower limit of quantification in 94% of the children. All patients with neuroblastoma at diagnosis were above the 97.5th percentile for tMT, tNMN, fNMN, and fMT, whereas their fMN and tMN were mostly within the normal range. As expected, urine assays were inconstantly predictive of the disease. CONCLUSIONS: A continuous model incorporating all data for a given analyte represents an appealing alternative to arbitrary partitioning of reference intervals across age categories. Plasma metanephrines are promising biomarkers for neuroblastoma, and their performances need to be confirmed in a prospective study on a large cohort of patients. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2015;62:587-593. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fluorescence flow cytometer to determine urine particle reference intervals in doping control samples.

Background: Urine is still the matrix of choice to fight against doping, because it can be collected non-invasively during anti-doping tests. Most of the World Anti-Doping Agency's accredited laboratories have more than 20 years experience in analyzing this biological fluid and the majority of the compounds listed in the 2010 Prohibited List - International Standard are eliminated through the urinary apparatus. Storing and transporting urine samples for doping analyses does not include a specific protocol to prevent microbial and thermal degradation. The use of a rapid and reliable screening method could enable determine reference intervals for urine specimens in doping control samples and evaluate notably the prevalence of microbial contamination known to be responsible for the degradation of chemical substances in urine.Methods: The Sysmex(R) UF-500i is a recent urine flow cytometer analyzer capable of quantifying BACT and other urinary particles such as RBC, WBC, EC, DEBRIS, CAST, PATH. CAST, YLC, SRC as well as measuring urine conductivity. To determine urine anti-doping reference intervals, 501 samples received in our laboratory over a period of two months were submitted to an immediate examination. All samples were collected and then transported at room temperature. Analysis of variance was performed to test the effects of factors such as gender, test type [in-competition, out-of-competition] and delivery time.Results: The data obtained showed that most of the urine samples were highly contaminated with bacteria. The other urine particles were also very different according to the factors.Conclusions: The Sysmex(R) UF-500i was capable of providing a snapshot of urine particles present in the samples at the time of the delivery to the laboratory. These particles, BACT in particular, gave a good idea of the possible microbial degradation which had and/or could have occurred in the sample. This information could be used as the first quality control set up in WADA (World Anti-Doping Agency) accredited laboratories to determine if steroid profiles, endogenous and prohibited substances have possibly been altered. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

LC-MS/MS based assay and reference intervals in children and adolescents for oxysterols elevated in Niemann-Pick diseases.

BACKGROUND: Niemann-Pick type C (NP-C) is a rare progressive neurodegenerative lipid storage disorder with heterogeneous clinical presentation and challenging diagnostic procedures. Recently oxysterols have been reported to be specific biomarkers for NP-C but knowledge on the intra-individual variation and on reference intervals in children and adolescents are lacking. METHODS: We established a LC-MS/MS assay to measure Cholestane-3β, 5α, 6β-triol (C-triol) and 7-Ketocholesterol (7-KC) following Steglich esterification. To assess reference intervals and intra-individual variation we determined oxysterols in 148 children and adolescents from 0 to 18 years and repeat measurements in 19 of them. RESULTS: The reported method is linear (r>0.99), sensitive (detection limit of 0.03 ng/mL [0.07 nM] for C-triol, and 0.54 ng/mL [1.35 nM] for 7-KC) and precise, with an intra-day imprecision of 4.8% and 4.1%, and an inter-day imprecision of 7.0% and 11.0% for C-triol (28 ng/ml, 67 nM) and 7-KC (32 ng/ml, 80 nM), respectively. Recoveries for 7-KC and C-triol range between 93% and 107%. The upper reference limit obtained for C-triol is 40.4 ng/mL (95% CI: 26.4-61.7 ng/mL, 96.0 nM, 95% CI: 62.8-146.7 nM) and 75.0 ng/mL for 7-KC (95% CI: 55.5-102.5 ng/mL, 187.2 nM, 95% CI: 138.53-255.8 nM), with no age or gender dependency. Both oxysterols have a broad intra-individual variation of 46%±23% for C-triol and 52%±29% for 7-KC. Nevertheless, all Niemann-Pick patients showed increased C-triol levels including Niemann-Pick type A and B patients. CONCLUSIONS: The LC-MS/MS assay is a robust assay to quantify C-triol and 7-KC in plasma with well documented reference intervals in children and adolescents to screen for NP-C in the pediatric population. In addition our results suggest that especially the C-triol is a biomarker for all three Niemann-Pick diseases.

The Total Deviation Index estimated by Tolerance Intervals to evaluate the concordance of measurement devices

Background In an agreement assay, it is of interest to evaluate the degree of agreement between the different methods (devices, instruments or observers) used to measure the same characteristic. We propose in this study a technical simplification for inference about the total deviation index (TDI) estimate to assess agreement between two devices of normally-distributed measurements and describe its utility to evaluate inter- and intra-rater agreement if more than one reading per subject is available for each device. Methods We propose to estimate the TDI by constructing a probability interval of the difference in paired measurements between devices, and thereafter, we derive a tolerance interval (TI) procedure as a natural way to make inferences about probability limit estimates. We also describe how the proposed method can be used to compute bounds of the coverage probability. Results The approach is illustrated in a real case example where the agreement between two instruments, a handle mercury sphygmomanometer device and an OMRON 711 automatic device, is assessed in a sample of 384 subjects where measures of systolic blood pressure were taken twice by each device. A simulation study procedure is implemented to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the approach to two already established methods, showing that the TI approximation produces accurate empirical confidence levels which are reasonably close to the nominal confidence level. Conclusions The method proposed is straightforward since the TDI estimate is derived directly from a probability interval of a normally-distributed variable in its original scale, without further transformations. Thereafter, a natural way of making inferences about this estimate is to derive the appropriate TI. Constructions of TI based on normal populations are implemented in most standard statistical packages, thus making it simpler for any practitioner to implement our proposal to assess agreement.

Robust Estimates of the Negative Binomial Model

We consider robust parametric procedures for univariate discrete distributions, focusing on the negative binomial model. The procedures are based on three steps: ?First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed. ?Second, this initial model is used to identify outliers, which are then removed from the sample. ?Third, a corrected maximum likelihood estimator is computed with the remaining observations. The final estimate inherits the breakdown point (bdp) of the initial one and its efficiency can be significantly higher. Analogous procedures were proposed in [1], [2], [5] for the continuous case. A comparison of the asymptotic bias of various estimates under point contamination points out the minimum Neyman's chi-squared disparity estimate as a good choice for the initial step. Various minimum disparity estimators were explored by Lindsay [4], who showed that the minimum Neyman's chi-squared estimate has a 50% bdp under point contamination; in addition, it is asymptotically fully efficient at the model. However, the finite sample efficiency of this estimate under the uncontaminated negative binomial model is usually much lower than 100% and the bias can be strong. We show that its performance can then be greatly improved using the three step procedure outlined above. In addition, we compare the final estimate with the procedure described in

Thyroid function in the elderly and sex hormones in elderly men: reference intervals and associations with health

Aims: The aims were to create clinically feasible reference intervals for thyroidstimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) and to analyze associations between thyroid function and self-rated health, neuropsychiatric symptoms, depression and dementia in the elderly. The second aim was also to establish reference intervals for sex hormones and to analyze associations between sex hormone levels and self-rated health, symptoms, depression and dementia in elderly men. Subjects and methods: The study population comprised 1252 subjects aged 65 years or over, living in the municipality of Lieto, south-western Finland. Self-rated health, life satisfaction, symptoms, depression, and dementia were assessed with specific questions, clinical examination and tools such as the Zung Self-report Depression Scale and the Mini-Mental State Examination. Independent variables were dichotomized, and associations of these variables with TSH, FT4 or sex hormone levels were assessed. Levels of TSH and FT4 in thyroid disease–free women and women treated with thyroxine were also compared. Results: Elevated concentrations of thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) or thyroglobulin antibodies (TgAb) were found to have a marked effect on the upper reference limit for TSH among women, who were thyroid antibody positive more higher than suggested in several recent guidelines. After age adjustment, there were no associations between TSH levels and self-rated health, life satisfaction, or most neuropsychiatric symptoms in the thyroid disease-free population. Although women with thyroxine treatment for primary hypothyroidism had far higher TSH levels than thyroid disease-free women, there were no differences between thyroid-disease free women and women with stable thyroxine treatment regarding self-rated health, life satisfaction or symptoms. Age had a significant positive association with luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle 2 practice, one range in men aged 65 years or over can be used for T, E2 and FSH measured with the AutoDelfia method, but two separate reference intervals should be used for fT, LH and SHBG. After adjustment for age, higher levels of T and fT were associated with better self-rated health (SRH) in the reference population. After adjustment for age and body mass index (BMI), there were no associations between sex hormone concentrations and self-rated health, life satisfaction or most symptoms in concentration. Conclusion: Age-specific reference intervals were derived for thyroid function and sex hormones based on comprehensive data from a community-dwelling population with a high participation rate. The results do not support the need to decrease the upper reference limit for TSH or to lower the optimal TSH target in levothyroxine treatment in older adults, as recommended in recent guidelines. Older age or being overweight symptoms among elderly men. The associations of single symptoms with T levels were inconsistent among elderly men, although the association of low T level with diagnosed depression might be clinically significant.

Social factors related to the clinical severity of influenza cases in Spain during the A(H1N1)2009 virus pandemic

Background During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a change in the type of patients most often affected by influenza was observed. The objective of this study was to assess the role of individual and social determinants in hospitalizations due to influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods We studied hospitalized patients (cases) and outpatients (controls) with confirmed influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data. Variables that might be related to the hospitalization of influenza cases were compared by estimation of the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and the variables entered into binomial logistic regression models. Results Hospitalization due to pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections was associated with non-Caucasian ethnicity (OR: 2.18, 95% CI 1.17 − 4.08), overcrowding (OR: 2.84, 95% CI 1.20 − 6.72), comorbidity and the lack of previous preventive information (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.50 − 4.83). Secondary or higher education was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization (OR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.36 − 0.87) Conclusions In addition to individual factors such as comorbidity, other factors such as educational level, ethnicity or overcrowding were associated with hospitalization due to A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections.

Reference intervals for 24 laboratory parameters determined in 24-hour urine collections.

BACKGROUND: Reference intervals for many laboratory parameters determined in 24-h urine collections are either not publicly available or based on small numbers, not sex specific or not from a representative sample. METHODS: Osmolality and concentrations or enzymatic activities of sodium, potassium, chloride, glucose, creatinine, citrate, cortisol, pancreatic α-amylase, total protein, albumin, transferrin, immunoglobulin G, α1-microglobulin, α2-macroglobulin, as well as porphyrins and their precursors (δ-aminolevulinic acid and porphobilinogen) were determined in 241 24-h urine samples of a population-based cohort of asymptomatic adults (121 men and 120 women). For 16 of these 24 parameters creatinine-normalized ratios were calculated based on 24-h urine creatinine. The reference intervals for these parameters were calculated according to the CLSI C28-A3 statistical guidelines. RESULTS: By contrast to most published reference intervals, which do not stratify for sex, reference intervals of 12 of 24 laboratory parameters in 24-h urine collections and of eight of 16 parameters as creatinine-normalized ratios differed significantly between men and women. For six parameters calculated as 24-h urine excretion and four parameters calculated as creatinine-normalized ratios no reference intervals had been published before. For some parameters we found significant and relevant deviations from previously reported reference intervals, most notably for 24-h urine cortisol in women. Ten 24-h urine parameters showed weak or moderate sex-specific correlations with age. CONCLUSIONS: By applying up-to-date analytical methods and clinical chemistry analyzers to 24-h urine collections from a large population-based cohort we provide as yet the most comprehensive set of sex-specific reference intervals calculated according to CLSI guidelines for parameters determined in 24-h urine collections.

Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

Intervals between response choices on a single-item measure of quality of life.

BACKGROUND: A single overall rating of quality of life (QoL) is a sensitive method that is often used in population surveys. However, the exact meaning of response choices is unclear. In particular, uneven spacing may affect the way QoL ratings should be analyzed and interpreted. This study aimed to determine the intervals between response choices to a single-item QoL assessment. METHODS: A secondary analysis was conducted on data from the Lc65+ cohort study and two additional, population-based, stratified random samples of older people (N = 5,300). Overall QoL was rated as excellent, very good, good, fair or poor. A QoL score (range 0-100) was derived from participants' answers to a 28-item QoL assessment tool. A transformed QoL score ranging from 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent) was calculated. The same procedure was repeated to compute seven domain-specific QoL subscores (Feeling of safety; Health and mobility; Autonomy; Close entourage; Material resources; Esteem and recognition; Social and cultural life). RESULTS: Mean (95 % confidence intervals) QoL scores were 96.23 (95.81-96.65) for excellent, 93.09 (92.74-93.45) for very good, 81.45 (80.63-82.27) for good, 65.44 (62.67-68.20) for fair and 54.52 (45.31-63.73) for poor overall QoL, corresponding to transformed QoL scores of respectively 5.00, 4.70, 3.58, 2.05, and 1.00. Ordinality of the categories excellent to poor was preserved in all seven QoL subscores. CONCLUSIONS: The excellent-to-poor rating scale provides an ordinal measure of overall QoL. The intervals between response choices are unequal, but an interval scale can be obtained after adequate recoding of excellent, very good, good, fair and poor.