Dynamic pricing model and algorithm for perishable products with fuzzy demand (ABS 2* Journal)

This paper studies the dynamic pricing problem of selling fixed stock of perishable items over a finite horizon, where the decision maker does not have the necessary historic data to estimate the distribution of uncertain demand, but has imprecise information about the quantity demand. We model this uncertainty using fuzzy variables. The dynamic pricing problem based on credibility theory is formulated using three fuzzy programming models, viz.: the fuzzy expected revenue maximization model, a-optimistic revenue maximization model, and credibility maximization model. Fuzzy simulations for functions with fuzzy parameters are given and embedded into a genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve these three models. Finally, a real-world example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the developed model and algorithm.

Evidence To Challenge the Universality of the Horiuti-Polanyi Mechanism for Hydrogenation in Heterogeneous Catalysis:Origin and Trend of the Preference of a Non-Horiuti-Polanyi Mechanism

The Horiuti-Polanyi mechanism has been considered to be universal for explaining the mechanisms of hydrogenation reactions in heterogeneous catalysis for several decades. In this work, we examine this mechanism for the hydrogenation of acrolein, the simplest alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehyde, in gold-based systems as well as some other metals using extensive first-principles calculations. It is found that a non-Horiuti-Polanyi mechanism is favored in some cases. Furthermore, the physical origin and trend of this mechanism are revealed and discussed regarding the geometrical and electronic effects, which will have a significant influence on current understandings on heterogeneous catalytic hydrogenation reactions and the future catalyst design for these reactions.

Valuing Sovereign Default Risk - A Pricing Formula and its Empirical Results for the Mexican External Debt.

Rapport de recherche

Three essays in empirical asset pricing

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Forecasting with difference and trend stationary models

Although difference-stationary (DS) and trend-stationary (TS) processes have been subject to considerable analysis, there are no direct comparisons for each being the data-generation process (DGP). We examine incorrect choice between these models for forecasting for both known and estimated parameters. Three sets of Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the analysis, to evaluate the biases in conventional standard errors when each model is mis-specified, compute the relative mean-square forecast errors of the two models for both DGPs, and investigate autocorrelated errors, so both models can better approximate the converse DGP. The outcomes are surprisingly different from established results.

Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.

Pricing segmentation and MBA course choice

The consensus from studies of the price-demand relationship for higher education is that this relationship is negative but small. This paper investigates the circumstances in which demand for an MBA is positive to price increases. A survey of currently enrolled MBA students, and prospective MBA students, found that most students displayed the expected price elasticity in a conjoint analysis of hypothetical MBA course ratings. However, 12 per cent of respondents exhibited “reversal” behaviour regarding price. Profiling these respondents using discriminant analysis suggested that “reversals” seemed prepared to pay more for a course at a high prestige university, if they could study off-campus using print-based materials.

Testes de validade do capital asset pricing model no mercado acionário de São Paulo : um estudo indicativo do poder de teste da metodologia de Fama e Macbeth

Utiliza a técnica de simulação para estimar a "eficiência" de se testar o modelo Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) num mercado com características do mercado acionário paulista, marcado por elevado retorno e alta volatilidade.

O modelo de avaliação de ativos: (Capital asset pricing model)

Examina o modelo de seleção de portfólios desenvolvido por Markowitz, principalmente no que concerne: as suas relações com a teoria da utilidade de Von Neumann-Morgenstern; aos algo ritmos de solução do problema de Programação Quadrática paramétrica dele decorrente; a simplificação proporcionada pelo Modelo Diagonal de Sharpe. Mostra que a existência de um título sem risco permite a especificação do Teorema da Separação e a simplificação do problema de seleção de portfólios. Analisa o modelo denominado por CAPM, de equilíbrio no Mercado de Capitais sob condições de incerteza, comparando os processos dedutivos empregados por Lintner e Mossin. Examina as implicações decorrentes do relaxamento dos pressupostos subjacentes ã esse modelo de equilíbrio geral, principalmente a teoria do portfólio Zero-Beta desenvolvida por Black.