Price dynamics, foreign exchange and anticipated shocks in a tourism economy

Using a dynamic model of an open monetary economy, this paper examines the effects of tourism-related anticipated shocks on goods prices and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign tourists consume mainly non-traded goods in holiday destinations, converting them into exportable goods. This gives rise to a tourism terms-of-trade effect that affects the accumulation of foreign exchange. Announcements of anticipated events bring tourist visits forward, resulting in an initial under-adjustment or an over-adjustment in the prices of the non-traded goods when the tourism terms-of-trade effect is positive or negative. This leads to an increase or a decrease in foreign reserves in the long run.

Counterfactual thinking and anticipated emotions enhance performance in computer skills training

The present study examined the relationship between novice learners’ counterfactual thinking (i.e. generating ‘what if’ and ‘if only’ thoughts) about their initial training experience with a computer application and subsequent improvement in task performance. The role of anticipated emotions towards goal attainment in task performance was also assessed. Undergraduate students (N ¼ 42) with minimal experience in using computer spreadsheets underwent basic training in using Microsoft Excel. All participants were assessed on their anticipated positive and negative emotions regarding goal attainment at the outset. After completing their first task, participants allocated to a counterfactual condition received instructions to generate counterfactual thoughts regarding their initial task performance, whereas participants in a control condition did not. The counterfactual group showed only marginally greater improvement in task performance (measured by task completion time and accuracy) than the control group.  However, we also found that positive anticipated emotions were associated with improvement in task performance but for the counterfactual group only. Our data have implications for incorporating counterfactual thinking into information technology skills training to enhance learning outcomes for novice learners.

Price dynamics, foreign exchange and anticipated shocks in a tourism economy

Using a dynamic model of an open monetary economy, this paper examines the effects of tourism-related anticipated shocks on goods prices and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign tourists consume mainly non-traded goods in holiday destinations, converting them into exportable goods. This gives rise to a tourism terms-of-trade effect that affects the accumulation of foreign exchange. Announcements of anticipated events bring tourist visits forward, resulting in an initial underadjustment or an over-adjustment in the prices of the non-traded goods when the tourism termsof-trade effect is positive or negative. This leads to an increase or a decrease in foreign reserves in the long run.

Awake tracheal intubation using the Sensascope in 13 patients with an anticipated difficult airway

We present the use of the SensaScope, an S-shaped rigid fibreoptic scope with a flexible distal end, in a series of 13 patients at high risk of, or known to have, a difficult intubation. Patients received conscious sedation with midazolam or fentanyl combined with a remifentanil infusion and topical lidocaine to the oral mucosa and to the trachea via a trans-cricoid injection. Spontaneous ventilation was maintained until confirmation of tracheal intubation. In all cases, tracheal intubation was achieved using the SensaScope. The median (IQR [range]) insertion time (measured from the time the facemask was taken away from the face until an end-expiratory CO(2) reading was visible on the monitor) was 58 s (38-111 [28-300]s). In nine of the 13 cases, advancement of the SensaScope into the trachea was easy. Difficulties included a poor view associated with a bleeding diathesis and saliva, transient loss of spontaneous breathing, and difficulty in advancing the tracheal tube in a patient with unforeseen tracheal narrowing. A poor view in two patients was partially improved by a high continuous flow of oxygen. The SensaScope may be a valuable alternative to other rigid or flexible fibreoptic scopes for awake intubation of spontaneously breathing patients with a predicted difficult airway.

Health-related quality of life anticipated with different management strategies for febrile neutropenia in adult cancer patients

PURPOSE: To describe anticipated health-related quality of life (HRQL) for different hypothetical strategies of febrile neutropenia (FN) management in adult cancer patients. METHODS: Seventy-eight adult cancer patients were enrolled. Our study considered four different hypothetical treatment strategies for FN: (1) entire inpatient management with intravenous (IV) antibiotics; (2) oral treatment at home after an initial observation in hospital with IV antibiotics; (3) entire outpatient management with IV antibiotics; and (4) entire outpatient management with oral antibiotics. Initially, patients were asked to rank the different treatment strategies for FN based on their personal preference. Subsequently, HRQL was rated using visual analog scale (VAS), time trade-off (TTO), and willingness-to-pay (WTP). RESULTS: Seventy-five percent of all respondents preferred an outpatient strategy for FN (36% oral, 21% intravenous, 18% early discharge). Further, outpatient strategies were associated with higher mean VAS scores (possible range 0-10) (oral: 6.1 (standard deviation (SD) 3.1); intravenous: 6.2 (SD 2.2); early discharge: 5.7 (SD 2.1)) as compared to inpatient care (5.3 (SD 2.9)). On the aggregate level, patients were willing to give up between 9 and 10 weeks of their life (TTO; corresponding to <1% of remaining life expectancy) and to pay between $255 and $327 Canadian dollars (WTP) to avoid treatment in hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that the majority of adult cancer patients would prefer an outpatient strategy for FN. However, patients' preferences vary substantially at the individual level. Implementation of outpatient strategies into routine clinical practice should consider this variability.

"My One Regret...": The Case for Cultural Immersion in Study Abroad Programs

Study abroad has been an established institution in US universities for almost a century, and hundreds of thousands of students travel to all corners of the world every year. While many list some degree of cultural immersion as a main goal, most students have a difficult time achieving this. Drawing from interviews with twenty-five UConn undergraduates that studied abroad, this study attempts to identify factors that hold students back from cultural encounters. The study also discusses the 'success stories' of undergrads that made significant connections abroad, and highlights the factors that can lead to this (e.g., homestays, jobs, internships).

Tribalism as a Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence from Voting in the 2007 Kenyan Elections

Although many studies find that voting in Africa approximates an ethnic census in that voting is primarily along ethnic lines, hardly any of the studies have sought to explain ethnic voting following a rational choice framework. Using data of voter opinions from a survey conducted two weeks before the December 2007 Kenyan elections, we find that the expected benefits associated with a win by each of the presidential candidates varied significantly across voters from different ethnic groups. We hypothesize that decision to participate in the elections was influenced by the expected benefits as per the minimax-regret voting model. We test the predictions of this model using data of voter turnout in the December 2007 elections and find that turnout across ethnic groups varied systematically with expected benefits. The results suggest that individuals participated in the elections primarily to avoid the maximum regret should a candidate from another ethnic group win. The results therefore offer credence to the minimax regret model as proposed by Ferejohn and Fiorina (1974) and refute the Downsian expected utility model.

Regret theory-based scenario building using an interacttive process

This paper is an introduction of the regret theory-based scenario building approach combining with a modified Delphi method that uses an interactive process to design and assess four different TDM measures (i.e., cordon toll, parking charge, increased bus frequency and decreased bus fare). The case study of Madrid is used to present the analysis and provide policy recommendations. The new scenario building approach incorporates expert judgement and transport models in an interactive process. It consists of a two-round modified Delphi survey, which was answeared by a group of Spanish transport experts who were the participants of the Transport Engineering Congress (CIT 2012), and an integrated land-use and transport model (LUTI) for Madrid that is called MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator).

Professionals’ Perceptions of Support Resources for Battered Immigrant Women Chronicle of an Anticipated Failure

The aim of this study was to explore the experience of service providers in Spain regarding their daily professional encounters with battered immigrant women and their perception of this group’s help-seeking process and the eventual abandonment of the same. Twenty-nine in-depth interviews and four focus group discussions were conducted with a total of 43 professionals involved in providing support to battered immigrant women. We interviewed social workers, psychologists, intercultural mediators, judges, lawyers, and public health professionals from Spain. Through qualitative content analysis, four categories emerged: (a) frustration with the victim’s decision to abandon the help-seeking process, (b) ambivalent positions regarding differences between immigrant and Spanish women, (c) difficulties in the migratory process that may hinder the help-seeking process, and (d) criticisms regarding the inefficiency of existing resources. The four categories were cross-cut by an overarching theme: helping immigrant women not to abandon the help-seeking process as a chronicle of anticipated failure. The main reasons that emerged for abandoning the help-seeking process involved structural factors such as economic dependence, loss of social support after leaving their country of origin, and limited knowledge about available resources. The professionals perceived their encounters with battered immigrant women to be frustrating and unproductive because they felt that they had few resources to back them up. They felt that despite the existence of public policies targeting intimate partner violence (IPV) and immigration in Spain, the resources dedicated to tackling gender-based violence were insufficient to meet battered immigrant women’s needs. Professionals should be trained both in the problem of IPV and in providing support to the immigrant population.