Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.

WSRF-based modeling of clinical trial information for collaborative cancer research

The CancerGrid consortium is developing open-standards cancer informatics to address the challenges posed by modern cancer clinical trials. This paper presents the service-oriented software paradigm implemented in CancerGrid to derive clinical trial information management systems for collaborative cancer research across multiple institutions. Our proposal is founded on a combination of a clinical trial (meta)model and WSRF (Web Services Resource Framework), and is currently being evaluated for use in early phase trials. Although primarily targeted at cancer research, our approach is readily applicable to other areas for which a similar information model is available.

Goal-based modeling of dynamically adaptive system requirements

Self-adaptation is emerging as an increasingly important capability for many applications, particularly those deployed in dynamically changing environments, such as ecosystem monitoring and disaster management. One key challenge posed by Dynamically Adaptive Systems (DASs) is the need to handle changes to the requirements and corresponding behavior of a DAS in response to varying environmental conditions. Berry et al. previously identified four levels of RE that should be performed for a DAS. In this paper, we propose the Levels of RE for Modeling that reify the original levels to describe RE modeling work done by DAS developers. Specifically, we identify four types of developers: the system developer, the adaptation scenario developer, the adaptation infrastructure developer, and the DAS research community. Each level corresponds to the work of a different type of developer to construct goal model(s) specifying their requirements. We then leverage the Levels of RE for Modeling to propose two complementary processes for performing RE for a DAS. We describe our experiences with applying this approach to GridStix, an adaptive flood warning system, deployed to monitor the River Ribble in Yorkshire, England.

A goal-based modeling approach to develop requirements of an adaptive system with environmental uncertainty

Dynamically adaptive systems (DASs) are intended to monitor the execution environment and then dynamically adapt their behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. The uncertainty of the execution environment is a major motivation for dynamic adaptation; it is impossible to know at development time all of the possible combinations of environmental conditions that will be encountered. To date, the work performed in requirements engineering for a DAS includes requirements monitoring and reasoning about the correctness of adaptations, where the DAS requirements are assumed to exist. This paper introduces a goal-based modeling approach to develop the requirements for a DAS, while explicitly factoring uncertainty into the process and resulting requirements. We introduce a variation of threat modeling to identify sources of uncertainty and demonstrate how the RELAX specification language can be used to specify more flexible requirements within a goal model to handle the uncertainty. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Intenzitásalapú modellezés és a mértékcsere (Intensity-based modeling and thje change of measure)

A dolgozatban a hitelderivatívák intenzitásalapú modellezésének néhány kérdését vizsgáljuk meg. Megmutatjuk, hogy alkalmas mértékcserével nemcsak a duplán sztochasztikus folyamatok, hanem tetszőleges intenzitással rendelkező pontfolyamat esetén is kiszámolható az összetett kár- és csődfolyamat eloszlásának Laplace-transzformáltja. _____ The paper addresses questions concerning the use of intensity based modeling in the pricing of credit derivatives. As the specification of the distribution of the lossprocess is a non-trivial exercise, the well-know technique for this task utilizes the inversion of the Laplace-transform. A popular choice for the model is the class of doubly stochastic processes given that their Laplace-transforms can be determined easily. Unfortunately these processes lack several key features supported by the empirical observations, e.g. they cannot replicate the self-exciting nature of defaults. The aim of the paper is to show that by using an appropriate change of measure the Laplace-transform can be calculated not only for a doubly stochastic process, but for an arbitrary point process with intensity as well. To support the application of the technique, we investigate the e®ect of the change of measure on the stochastic nature of the underlying process.

Structure-based modeling of head -related transfer functions towards interactive customization of binaural sound systems

One of the most popular techniques for creating spatialized virtual sounds is based on the use of Head-Related Transfer Functions (HRTFs). HRTFs are signal processing models that represent the modifications undergone by the acoustic signal as it travels from a sound source to each of the listener's eardrums. These modifications are due to the interaction of the acoustic waves with the listener's torso, shoulders, head and pinnae, or outer ears. As such, HRTFs are somewhat different for each listener. For a listener to perceive synthesized 3-D sound cues correctly, the synthesized cues must be similar to the listener's own HRTFs. ^ One can measure individual HRTFs using specialized recording systems, however, these systems are prohibitively expensive and restrict the portability of the 3-D sound system. HRTF-based systems also face several computational challenges. This dissertation presents an alternative method for the synthesis of binaural spatialized sounds. The sound entering the pinna undergoes several reflective, diffractive and resonant phenomena, which determine the HRTF. Using signal processing tools, such as Prony's signal modeling method, an appropriate set of time delays and a resonant frequency were used to approximate the measured Head-Related Impulse Responses (HRIRs). Statistical analysis was used to find out empirical equations describing how the reflections and resonances are determined by the shape and size of the pinna features obtained from 3D images of 15 experimental subjects modeled in the project. These equations were used to yield “Model HRTFs” that can create elevation effects. ^ Listening tests conducted on 10 subjects show that these model HRTFs are 5% more effective than generic HRTFs when it comes to localizing sounds in the frontal plane. The number of reversals (perception of sound source above the horizontal plane when actually it is below the plane and vice versa) was also reduced by 5.7%, showing the perceptual effectiveness of this approach. The model is simple, yet versatile because it relies on easy to measure parameters to create an individualized HRTF. This low-order parameterized model also reduces the computational and storage demands, while maintaining a sufficient number of perceptually relevant spectral cues. ^

Physics-based modeling of power system components for the evaluation of low-frequency radiated electromagnetic fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system's EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter's components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled

A implementação do modelo activity-based costing numa instituição de ensino superior: o caso do Instituto Politécnico de Leiria

As instituições de ensino superior estão obrigadas pelo Plano Oficial de Contabilidade Pública para o sector da educação (POC-Educação) a adotar a integração da contabilidade orçamental com a contabilidade patrimonial e a contabilidade analítica. O facto de o POC-Educação referenciar a contabilidade analítica como um instrumento indispensável à gestão das organizações de ensino superior, na medida em que apoia os gestores no controlo das atividades desenvolvidas e no processo de tomada de decisões, associado à motivação obtida com a minha experiência profissional, integrado na Direção de Serviços Financeiros, de uma instituição de ensino superior, foi o ponto de partida para este projeto, subordinado ao tema “A implementação do modelo Activity-Based Costing numa instituição do ensino superior: o caso do Instituto Politécnico de Leiria” com o qual se pretende aferir a aplicabilidade dos princípios que sustentam o Activity-Based Costing (ABC) como instrumento de gestão numa instituição do ensino superior. Várias técnicas poderiam ser utilizadas para a concretização deste trabalho, no entanto quer pela contemporaneidade do conceito quer pelas características da instituição objeto de estudo foi decidido testar a metodologia ABC que apresenta benefícios na distribuição dos custos indiretos e comuns pelos objetos de custeio, face aos sistemas de custeio tradicionais. Considerando a dimensão do Instituto Politécnico de Leiria, e aproveitando os benefícios da sua estrutura organizacional, optamos por aplicar a metodologia apenas a parte da organização, no caso em concreto à Direção de Serviços Informáticos. Os resultados apresentados permitem concluir que os fundamentos que estão na base do modelo ABC podem ser aplicados a diversos serviços da instituição do ensino superior objeto de análise.

Radio frequency identification and time-driven activity based costing:RFID-TDABC application in warehousing

Purpose: This paper extends the use of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) data for accounting of warehouse costs and services. Time Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC) methodology is enhanced with the real-time collected RFID data about duration of warehouse activities. This allows warehouse managers to have accurate and instant calculations of costs. The RFID enhanced TDABC (RFID-TDABC) is proposed as a novel application of the RFID technology. Research Approach: Application of RFID-TDABC in a warehouse is implemented on warehouse processes of a case study company. Implementation covers receiving, put-away, order picking, and despatching. Findings and Originality: RFID technology is commonly used for the identification and tracking items. The use of the RFID generated information with the TDABC can be successfully extended to the area of costing. This RFID-TDABC costing model will benefit warehouse managers with accurate and instant calculations of costs. Research Impact: There are still unexplored benefits to RFID technology in its applications in warehousing and the wider supply chain. A multi-disciplinary research approach led to combining RFID technology and TDABC accounting method in order to propose RFID-TDABC. Combining methods and theories from different fields with RFID, may lead researchers to develop new techniques such as RFID-TDABC presented in this paper. Practical Impact: RFID-TDABC concept will be of value to practitioners by showing how warehouse costs can be accurately measured by using this approach. Providing better understanding of incurred costs may result in a further optimisation of warehousing operations, lowering costs of activities, and thus provide competitive pricing to customers. RFID-TDABC can be applied in a wider supply chain.

Uses of agent-based modeling for health communication: the TELL ME case study

Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals’ protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

The application of a novel, cell permeable activity-based probe for the detection of cysteine cathepsins.

Cysteine cathepsins, such as cathepsin S (CTSS), are implicated in the pathology of a wide range of diseases and are of potential utility as diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers. In previous work, we demonstrated the potency and efficiency of a biotinylated diazomethylketone (DMK)-based activity-based probe (ABP), biotin-PEG-LVG-DMK, for disclosure of recombinant CTSS and CTSS in cell lysates. However, the limited cell permeability of both the biotin and spacer groups restricted detection of CTSS to cell lysates. The synthesis and characterisation of a cell permeable ABP to report on intracellular CTSS activity is reported. The ABP, Z-PraVG-DMK, a modified peptidyl diazomethylketone, was based on the N-terminus of human cystatin motif (Leu-Val-Gly). The leucine residue was substituted for the alkyne-bearing proparcylglycine to facilitate conjugation of an azide-tagged reporter group using click chemistry, following irreversible inhibition of CTSS. When incubated with viable Human Embryonic Kidney 293 cells, Z-PraVG-DMK permitted disclosure of CTSS activity following cell lysis and rhodamine azide conjugation, by employing standard click chemistry protocols. Furthermore, the fluorescent tag facilitated direct detection of CTSS using in-gel fluorescent scanning, obviating the necessity for downstream biotin-streptavidin conjugation and detection procedures.