Contentious Contracts

This paper offers an explanation of rationally contracts where incompeteness refers to unforeseen contingencies. Agents enter a relationship with two-sided moral hazard in which a commitment to discard parts of the joint resources may be ex ante efficient.

Cognition in Seemingly Riskless Choices and Judgments.

We instillate rational cognition and learning in seemingly riskless choices and judgments. Preferences and possibilities are given in a stochastic sense and based on revisable expectations. the theory predicts experimental preference reversals and passes a sharp econometric test of the status quo bias drawn from a field study.

Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco.

With the help of an illustrative general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Moroccan Economy, we test for the significance of simulation results in the case where the exact macromesure is not known with certainty. This is done by computing lower and upper bounds for the simulation resukts, given a priori probabilities attached to three possible closures (Classical, Johansen, Keynesian). Our Conclusion is that, when there is uncertainty on closures several endogenous changes lack significance, which, in turn, limit the use of the model for policy prescriptions.

Arbitrage-Based Pricing when Volatility is Stochastic.

The paper investigates the pricing of derivative securities with calendar-time maturities.

Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: the Newsboy Problem Revisited.

In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

Labor Market Institutions and Gender Differences in Wage Inequality.

In this paper, we present graphical and quantitative evidence on the important role played by changes in labor market institutions on the rise in wage inequality in the United States during the 1980s. We show that the decline in the real value of the minimium wage and in the rate of unionization explains over a third of the rise in inequality among men.

Toward a Political Theory of Environmental Policy.

This paper makes some steps toward a formal political economy of environmental policy. Economists' quasi-unanimous preferences for sophisticated incentive regulation is reconsidered. First, we recast the question of instrument choice in the general mechanism literature and provide an incomplete contract approach to political economy. Then, in various settings, we show why constitutional constraints on the instruments of environmental policy may be desirable, even though they appear inefficient from a purely standard economic viewpoint.

Moral Hazard and Marshallian Inefficiency: Evidence from Tunisia.

In the presence of moral hazard, received agency theory predicts the Marshallian inefficiency of agricultural tenancy contracts, meaning that inputs per hectare on sharecropped land will differ from that on owned land. in this paper, we test for the presence of Marshallian inefficiency using a unique data set collected in the Tunisian village of El Oulja in 1993.

On the Optimal Order of Natural Resource Use When the Capacity of the Inexhaustible Substitute is Limited.

Consider a general equilibrium framework where the marginal cost of extraction from several deposits of an exhaustible resource is constant in terms of an inexhaustible perfect substitute and differs between deposits. the instantaneous rate of production form the inexhaustible resource is subject to a capacity constraint.

Actifs financiers et theorie de la consommation.

Dans cet article, pour etendre la theorie du consommateur a ses choix d'epargne et de placements, on utilise a la fois la theorie usuelle, celle des caracteristiques et celle du raisonnement quantitatif. on en deduit un systeme complet de demandes comprenant simultanement les quantites de biens et de services physiques, les quantites d'actifs financiers et les prix des actifs contingents elementaires eventuels.

Demanda energética na colheita, degradabilidade e digestibilidade da silagem de híbridos de milho

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dengue risk factor distribution in Harris County, Texas

As an important emerging arboviral disease in Texas and throughout the world, dengue fever has the potential to make a re-emergence in the Harris County/Houston metropolitan area. Harris County has seen dengue epidemics in the past. The area has a competent vector, Aedes aegypti, capable of transmission of the virus should it be introduced. It is important to examine areas of highest risk for dengue emergence and transmission in Harris County so that surveillance and educational programs can be properly implemented. This study uses mapping software to visually represent risk factor information with areas of known Ae. aegypti populations. This study focused on known demographic risk factors such as race/ethnicity, place of birth, gender as well as socioeconomic status represented by educational attainment and income. This study found that there are several areas, particularly in central Harris County that are at particular risk for dengue transmission. The findings support the hypothesis that in areas of lower socioeconomic status there were increased populations of foreign born populations, Hispanic populations, and identified locations of a competent vector present. These findings suggest that more specific surveillance of Ae. aegypti, testing of the mosquitoes for dengue virus, and active surveillance for human cases should be implemented in these areas. ^

Interethnic Differences in the Distribution of Clinically Relevant Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Genetic Polymorphisms

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a homodimeric glycoprotein produced mostly in endothelial cells and its transcription is regulated by a variety of growth factors and cytokines. VEGF plays many relevant roles, and three functional polymorphisms in the promoter region of the VEGF gene (C-2578A, G-1154A, and G-634C) have been associated with disease conditions. Although some studies suggest that interethnic differences exist in the distribution of these variants, no previous study has examined this hypothesis in admixed populations. We examined the distribution of these three clinically relevant VEGF single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 175 white and 185 black subjects. We have also estimated the haplotype distribution and assessed associations between these variants. Although the A-2578 and A-1154 variants were more common in whites (39% and 29%, respectively) than in blacks (29% and 16%, respectively; both p < 0.05), no significant interethnic differences were found with regards to the G-634C polymorphism. While the haplotype including the C-2578, G-1154, and G-634 variants was the most common in both ethnic groups, it was more common in blacks than in whites (p < 0.05). The haplotype including the C-2578, A-1154, and G-634 alleles and the haplotype including the C-2578, A-1154, and C-634 alleles were more common in whites than in blacks (both p < 0.05). These results show marked interethnic differences in the distribution of genetic variants of VEGF that may explain, at least in part, interethnic disparities in the susceptibility to cardiovascular diseases.

Distribution of interleukin-2,-4,-10, tumour necrosis factor-alpha and transforming growth factor-beta mRNAs in oral lichen planus

In the present study. MRNA for the cytokines interleukin-2 (IL-2), IL-4, IL-10 tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and transforming growth factor beta-1 (TGF-beta-1) were investigated in oral lichen planus (OLP) lesions using in situ hybridization with S-35-labelled oligonucleotide probes on frozen tissue sections. In addition, the expression of interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), IL-10 and IL-4 mRNAs was analysed in cultured lesional T lymphocytes from oral lichen planus by polymerase chain reaction. Cells expressing mRNA for IL-2, IL-4, IL-10, TNF-alpha and TGF-beta(1) were found in all the biopsies studied. Approximately 1-2% of the total number of infiltrating cells in the lesions were positive for each of the different cytokine mRNAs. Most biopsies contained basement membrane-oriented, mRNA-positive cells. In the cultured T-cell lines, message for IFN-gamma was detected in all the patients, IL-10 in all but one, and IL-4 in just one of the seven patients investigated. The results suggest that mRNA for both pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, i.e., mixed T-helper 1 (T(H)1) and T(H)2 cytokine profiles, are generated simultaneously by a limited number of cells in chronic lesions of OLP. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.