Punishing Local Incumbents for the Local Economy

After decennia of research on economic voting, it is now established that the state of the economy affects voting behaviour. Nevertheless, this conclusion is the result of a focus on predominantly national-level economies and national-level elections. In this paper, we show that at a local level as well, mechanisms of accountability linked to the economy are at work. The local economic context affected voting behaviour in the 2012 Belgian municipal elections, with a stronger increase of unemployment rates in their municipality significantly decreasing the probability that voters choose an incumbent party. Additionally, we observe that voters are not opportunistically voting for incumbents who lower tax rates. Instead, voters seem to be holding local incumbents accountable for local economic conditions. We hence conclude that voters care about economic outcomes, not about what specific policies are implemented to reach these outcomes.

Transfert de voix, flux électoraux et électeurs mobiles

Ruth Dassonneville et Pierre Baudewyns révèlent que, derrière les pourcentages des résultats électoraux, se cachent bien des mouvements et transferts d’électeurs. Ils se penchent sur la « volatilité nette », c’est-à-dire sur la somme des avancées et reculs des différents partis. Ils regardent également au niveau des individus (les électeurs) et observent que les électeurs et électrices votent différemment en 2014. Sur la base de ces analyses des transferts de voix, les auteurs démontrent également que, du côté wallon, on a assisté à un certain éparpillement des votes, surtout entre les partis de gauche. En Flandre, par contre, les électeurs et électrices de centre-droit ont fortement convergé vers la N-VA. Les auteurs établissent aussi un portrait précis de qui sont les électeurs stables (« stayers ») et les électeurs mobiles (« movers »).

Making Good Citizens: Policy Approaches to Increasing Civic Participation

In this dissertation, I explore the impact of several public policies on civic participation. Using a unique combination of school administrative and public–use voter files and methods for causal inference, I evaluate the impact of three new, as of yet unexplored, policies: one informational, one institutional, and one skill–based. Chapter 2 examines the causal effect of No Child Left Behind’s performance-based accountability school failure signals on turnout in school board elections and on individuals’ use of exit. I find that failure signals mobilize citizens both at the ballot box and by encouraging them to vote with their feet. However, these increases in voice and exit come primarily from citizens who already active—thus exacerbating inequalities in both forms of participation. Chapter 3 examines the causal effect of preregistration—an electoral reform that allows young citizens to enroll in the electoral system before turning 18, while also providing them with various in-school supports. Using data from the Current Population Survey and Florida Voter Files and multiple methods for causal inference, I (with my coauthor listed below) show that preregistration mobilizes and does so for a diverse set of citizens. Finally, Chapter 4 examines the impact of psychosocial or so called non-cognitive skills on voter turnout. Using information from the Fast Track intervention, I show that early– childhood investments in psychosocial skills have large, long-run spillovers on civic participation. These gains are widely distributed, being especially large for those least likely to participate. These chapters provide clear insights that reach across disciplinary boundaries and speak to current policy debates. In placing specific attention not only on whether these programs mobilize, but also on who they mobilize, I provide scholars and practitioners with new ways of thinking about how to address stubbornly low and unequal rates of citizen engagement.

Geographic Information Systems-Based Approaches to Study Congressional Redistricting in the United States

The ability for the citizens of a nation to determine their own representation has long been regarded as one of the most critical objectives of any electoral system. Without having the assurance of equality in representation, the fundamental nature and operation of the political system is severely undermined. Given the centuries of institutional reforms and population changes in the American system, Congressional Redistricting stands as an institution whereby this promise of effective representation can either be fulfilled or denied. The broad set of processes that encapsulate Congres- sional Redistricting have been discussed, experimented, and modified to achieve clear objectives and have long been understood to be important. Questions remain about how the dynamics which link all of these processes operate and what impact the real- ities of Congressional Redistricting hold for representation in the American system. This dissertation examines three aspects of how Congressional Redistricting in the Untied States operates in accordance with the principle of “One Person, One Vote.” By utilizing data and data analysis techniques of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this dissertation seeks to address how Congressional Redistricting impacts the principle of one person, one vote from the standpoint of legislator accountability, redistricting institutions, and the promise of effective minority representation.

Institutional Persistence in Eastern Europe: Economic and Political Legacies of Empires and Communism

This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of the roles that institutions play in economic development. How do institutions evolve? What mechanisms are responsible for their persistence? What effects do they have on economic development?

I address these questions using historical and contemporary data from Eastern Europe and Russia. This area is relatively understudied by development economists. It also has a very interesting history. For one thing, for several centuries it was divided between different empires. For another, it experienced wars and socialism in the 20th century. I use some of these exogenous shocks as quasi-natural social experiments to study the institutional transformations and its effects on economic development both in the short and long run.

This first chapter explores whether economic, social, and political institutions vary in their resistance to policies designed to remove them. The empirical context for the analysis is Romania from 1690 to the 2000s. Romania represents an excellent laboratory for studying the persistence of different types of historical institutional legacies. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Romania was split between the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, where political and economic institutions differed. The Habsburgs imposed less extractive institutions relative to the Ottomans: stronger rule of law, a more stable and predictable state, a more developed civil society, and less corruption. In the 20th century, the Romanian Communist regime tried deliberately to homogenize the country along all relevant dimensions. It was only partially successful. Using a regression discontinuity design, I document the persistence of economic outcomes, social capital, and political attitudes. First, I document remarkable convergence in urbanization, education, unemployment, and income between the two former empires. Second, regarding social capital, no significant differences in organizational membership, trust in bureaucracy, and corruption persist today. Finally, even though the Communists tried to change all political attitudes, significant discontinuities exist in current voting behavior at the former Habsburg-Ottoman border. Using data from the parliamentary elections of 1996-2008, I find that former Habsburg rule decreases by around 6 percentage points the vote share of the major post-Communist left party and increases by around 2 and 5 percentage points the vote shares of the main anti-Communist and liberal parties, respectively.

The second chapter investigates the effects of Stalin’s mass deportations on distrust in central authority. Four deported ethnic groups were not rehabilitated after Stalin’s death; they remained in permanent exile until the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This allows one to distinguish between the effects of the groups that returned to their homelands and those of the groups that were not allowed to return. Using regional data from the 1991 referendum on the future of the Soviet Union, I find that deportations have a negative interim effect on trust in central authority in both the regions of destination and those of origin. The effect is stronger for ethnic groups that remained in permanent exile in the destination regions. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, the chapter also documents a long-term effect of deportations in the destination regions.

The third chapter studies the short-term effect of Russian colonization of Central Asia on economic development. I use data on the regions of origin of Russian settlers and push factors to construct an instrument for Russian migration to Central Asia. This instrument allows me to interpret the outcomes causally. The main finding is that the massive influx of Russians into the region during the 1897-1926 period had a significant positive effect on indigenous literacy. The effect is stronger for men and in rural areas. Evidently, interactions between natives and Russians through the paid labor market was an important mechanism of human capital transmission in the context of colonization.

The findings of these chapters provide additional evidence that history and institutions do matter for economic development. Moreover, the dissertation also illuminates the relative persistence of institutions. In particular, political and social capital legacies of institutions might outlast economic legacies. I find that most economic differences between the former empires in Romania have disappeared. By the same token, there are significant discontinuities in political outcomes. People in former Habsburg Romania provide greater support for liberalization, privatization, and market economy, whereas voters in Ottoman Romania vote more for redistribution and government control over the economy.

In the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s deportations during World War II have a long-term negative effect on social capital. Today’s residents of the destination regions of deportations show significantly lower levels of trust in central authority. This is despite the fact that the Communist regime tried to eliminate any source of opposition and used propaganda to homogenize people’s political and social attitudes towards the authorities. In Central Asia, the influx of Russian settlers had a positive short-term effect on human capital of indigenous population by the 1920s, which also might have persisted over time.

From a development perspective, these findings stress the importance of institutions for future paths of development. Even if past institutional differences are not apparent for a certain period of time, as was the case with the former Communist countries, they can polarize society later on, hampering economic development in the long run. Different institutions in the past, which do not exist anymore, can thus contribute to current political instability and animosity.

El populismo que no fue : Los gobiernos de Rodríguez Saá y Duhalde

La obra de Laclau proporcionó nuevas herramientas teóricas para estudiar el populismo. Basándose en ella, diversos estudios han realizado aportes para la comprensión del kirchnerismo. Este artículo propone complementar esa explicación analizando aspectos soslayados en relación con un período poco explorado: el de los gobiernos de Adolfo Rodríguez Saá y de Eduardo Duhalde. Estos dos presidentes no elegidos por el voto popular fueron un interregno entre dos órdenes políticos. ¿Qué ocurrió en esos meses? El artículo propone que se modificaron las políticas públicas, el discurso y la forma de la acumulación, y se dejó un terreno fértil para la interpelación configurada por Néstor Kirchner.

El populismo que no fue : Los gobiernos de Rodríguez Saá y Duhalde

La obra de Laclau proporcionó nuevas herramientas teóricas para estudiar el populismo. Basándose en ella, diversos estudios han realizado aportes para la comprensión del kirchnerismo. Este artículo propone complementar esa explicación analizando aspectos soslayados en relación con un período poco explorado: el de los gobiernos de Adolfo Rodríguez Saá y de Eduardo Duhalde. Estos dos presidentes no elegidos por el voto popular fueron un interregno entre dos órdenes políticos. ¿Qué ocurrió en esos meses? El artículo propone que se modificaron las políticas públicas, el discurso y la forma de la acumulación, y se dejó un terreno fértil para la interpelación configurada por Néstor Kirchner.

El populismo que no fue : Los gobiernos de Rodríguez Saá y Duhalde

La obra de Laclau proporcionó nuevas herramientas teóricas para estudiar el populismo. Basándose en ella, diversos estudios han realizado aportes para la comprensión del kirchnerismo. Este artículo propone complementar esa explicación analizando aspectos soslayados en relación con un período poco explorado: el de los gobiernos de Adolfo Rodríguez Saá y de Eduardo Duhalde. Estos dos presidentes no elegidos por el voto popular fueron un interregno entre dos órdenes políticos. ¿Qué ocurrió en esos meses? El artículo propone que se modificaron las políticas públicas, el discurso y la forma de la acumulación, y se dejó un terreno fértil para la interpelación configurada por Néstor Kirchner.

Queering Apartheid: The National Party’s 1987 ‘Gay Rights’ Election Campaign in Hillbrow

This article investigates the anomaly in apartheid history of the ruling National Party's (NP) fielding a ‘pro-gay rights’ candidate in the Hillbrow constituency during the 1987 whites-only election in South Africa. The NP was aided in its Hillbrow campaign by the gay magazine Exit, which encouraged its readership to ‘vote gay’ in the election and published a list of candidates who were favourable to gay rights in South Africa. The Hillbrow campaign is intelligible when the intersections between race and sexuality are analysed and the discourses wielded by the NP and Exit are spatially and historically situated. The Hillbrow/Exit gay rights campaign articulated discourses about the reform of apartheid in white self-interest and conflated white minority and gay minority rights, thereby contributing to the NP's justification for apartheid. The NP candidate's defeat of the incumbent Progressive Federal Party (PFP) MP for Hillbrow, Alf Widman, was trumpeted by Exit as a powerful victory and advance for gay rights in South Africa, but the result provoked a sharp backlash among many white gay men and lesbian women who organised to openly identify with the liberation movement. The Exit/Hillbrow campaign problematises the singular assumptions that are often made about race and sexuality in apartheid South Africa, and illustrates how political, social and economic crisis can provoke reconfigurations of identities vis-à-vis the status quo.

The Electoral Rise of Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe: Ideological Parameters and Social Motivations

Populist radical right parties have become major political actors in Europe. This paper analyses the path and the different phases that have led them from the fringes of public debate to their present signifi cance, which is based on their capacity to attract electoral support and infl uence the political agendas in their respective countries. Besides, an analysis of the core ideological beliefs of these parties, and of the topics on which their mobilization capacity rests, is provided, as well as of the type of voters that are attracted by them. Finally, the authors discuss the meaning and impact of the growing popularity of the ideas and proposals put forward by the populist radical right parties.

Εl voto de un soldado a Silvano – Zeus "Dalbenus"?

Estudiamos una pieza inédita de una colección privada de Barcelona. Es una escultura votiva, ofrecida por un soldado. Representa al dios Silvano, si bien el nombre de este dios no aparece citado en la inscripción griega de la base, donde se indica que el voto va dirigido a Zeus Dalbenus. Este epíteto Dalbenos / Dalbenus es un hápax. Ofrecemos una lectura del texto e intentamos dar una respuesta a las “incongruencias” entre imagen y texto inscrito.

Land, Power and Technology : Essays on Political Economy and Historical Development

Land Ownership and Development: Evidence from Postwar Japan This paper analyzes the effect of land ownership on technology adoption and structural transformation. A large-scale land reform in postwar Japan enforced a large number of tenant farmers who were cultivating land to become owners of this land. I find that the municipalities which had many owner farmers after the land reform tended to experience a quick entry of new agricultural machines which became available after the reform. The adoption of the machines reduced the dependence on family labor, and led to a reallocation of labor from agriculture to industries and service sectors in urban centers when these sectors were growing. I also analyze the aggregate impact of labor reallocation on economic growth by using a simple growth model and micro data. I find that it increased GDP by about 12 percent of the GDP in 1974 during 1955-74. I also find a large and positive effect on agricultural productivity. Loyalty and Treason: Theory and Evidence from Japan's Land Reform A historically large-scale land reform in Japan after World War II enforced by the occupation forces redistributed a large area of farmlands to tenant farmers. The reform demolished hierarchical structures by weakening landlords' power in villages and towns. This paper investigates how the change in the social and economic structure of small communities affects electoral outcomes in the presence of clientelism. I find that there was a considerable decrease in the vote share of conservative parties in highly affected areas after the reform. I find the supporting evidence that the effect was driven by the fact that the tenant farmers who had obtained land exited from the long-term tenancy contract and became independent landowners. The effect was relatively persistent. Finally, I also find the surprising result that there was a decrease, rather than an increase, in turnout in these areas after the reform.  Geography and State Fragmentation We examine how geography affects the location of borders between sovereign states in Europe and surrounding areas from 1500 until today at the grid-cell level. This is motivated by an observation that the richest places in this region also have the highest historical border presence, suggesting a hitherto unexplored link between geography and modern development, working through state fragmentation. The raw correlations show that borders tend to be located on mountains, by rivers, closer to coasts, and in areas suitable for rainfed, but not irrigated, agriculture. Many of these patterns also hold with rigorous spatial controls. For example, cells with more rivers and more rugged terrain than their neighboring cells have higher border densities. However, the fragmenting effects of suitability for rainfed agriculture are reversed with such neighbor controls. Moreover, we find that borders are less likely to survive over time when they separate large states from small, but this size-difference effect is mitigated by, e.g., rugged terrain.

L'Union européenne, un nouvel acteur arctique? Stratégie, intérêts et défis émergents

Au cours des dernières décennies, la région de l’Arctique s’est vue propulsée au cœur de nombreuses analyses et controverses scientifiques, médiatiques et politiques. Avec la fonte des glaces, de nouvelles perspectives économiques et maritimes voient le jour, principalement en matière de navigation et d’exploitation des ressources naturelles, amenant les États riverains, ainsi que de nombreux autres pays du globe, à en faire une priorité en matière de politique internationale. L’intérêt de la communauté internationale s’est concrétisé principalement à partir des années 1990 – notamment avec la création du Conseil de l’Arctique en 1996 dont font partie la Russie, le Canada, les États-Unis, l’Islande, la Norvège, ainsi que certains États européens tels que la Suède, la Finlande et le Danemark. Cependant, l’Union européenne n’a manifesté une position plus proactive qu’à partir de 2008. En quelques années, Bruxelles s’est énormément mobilisée pour s’informer davantage sur la région et on a vu croître de manière considérable le nombre de rencontres, de conférences, de partages des connaissances sur les sujets arctiques. La publication d’une première communication de la Commission européenne sur la région arctique officialisa cette position plus déterminée de l’Union envers les enjeux arctiques. Cette recherche vise à étudier l’évolution et l’élaboration d’une politique européenne arctique, ainsi que les raisons et intérêts qui sous-tendent celle-ci. Il sera également question de se pencher sur les principaux obstacles rencontrés par l’Union dans ce processus et analyser les relations qu’elle entretient avec les différents États arctiques. Enfin, une mise au point de la situation actuelle sera faite afin de comprendre les divers défis et opportunités qu’elle peut rencontrer dans ce nouveau rôle d’acteur arctique.

Comment réussir la tarification incitative au Québec : un outil pour les municipalités

L’objectif de cet essai est de démystifier la tarification incitative et de présenter un outil pratique pour l’implantation réussie d’un système de tarification incitative de la collecte municipale des matières résiduelles au Québec. Cinq sous-objectifs mènent à cette réponse : les raisons du non-emploi de la tarification incitative au Québec, l’analyse des cas à succès en Amérique du Nord et en Europe, l’identification des préalables nécessaires à l’implantation, les étapes opérationnelles de la mise en œuvre et la communication adéquate du processus. L’importance du sujet de cet essai découle des coûts de la gestion des matières résiduelles. Ils voient une augmentation constante due aux redevances à l’élimination et aux nouvelles méthodes de valorisation pour les matières organiques. Une mise à jour de la tarification municipale est donc indispensable. La tarification incitative est un outil efficace pour la réduction des matières résiduelles produites et enfouies ainsi que pour améliorer le taux de récupération résidentiel. De nombreux cas réussis existent en Amérique du Nord. Néanmoins, seulement deux municipalités québécoises utilisent ce système à présent. Des résultats trouvés indiquent qu’une tarification incitative fonctionnelle dépend de l’adaptation du système aux particularités de chaque municipalité. Ceci s’applique au choix du contenant de collecte, des modalités de la facturation et à l’élaboration de la grille tarifaire. En préparation du projet, il est important d’offrir le plus de services complémentaires que possibles afin d’inciter un taux de récupération maximal. Ces services comportent des outils pour le compostage maison, un écocentre pour apport de matières additionnelles ainsi que des collectes spéciales pour les matières organiques, les encombrants et les résidus de construction. Neuf étapes d’une implantation réussie ont été identifiées. La base de chaque projet de tarification incitative est une étude économique et logistique préalable qui permet l’élaboration du scénario choisi. Un projet pilote lancé dans un échantillon de la population aide ensuite à peaufiner la méthode. La préparation de l’appel d’offres et le vote du projet s'en suivent. La mise en œuvre présente un contact avec les citoyens lors de la distribution et mise à jour des contenants de collecte. Par la suite, la municipalité à l’option de commencer par un test à blanc avant d’introduire la tarification complète lors du lancement. Enfin, un suivi par bilans annuels publiés s’impose. Une communication adéquate avant, pendant et après l’implantation est indispensable. La réussite du projet est fortement améliorée par l’allocation d’un chargé de projet responsable dès le début et la portée du projet par les élus.

Eleição nas escolas: uma análise do impacto do diretor eleito sobre o desempenho educacional no Estado da Bahia

In Brazil, the selection of school principals is set in a decentralized manner by each state and city, such that processes may vary with time for a specific locality. In the state of Bahia, school principals were appointed by a higher political hierarchy until 2008, when schools under state administration started selecting principals by elections. The main goal of this work is to evaluate whether changing this specific rule affected students proficiency levels. This is achieved by using a panel data and difference-in-differences approachs that compares state schools (treatment group) to city schools (control group) that did not face a selection rule change and thus kept having their principals politically appointed. The databases used are Prova Brasil 2007, 2009 and 2011, the first one prior and the other two former to the policy change. Our results suggest that students attending schools with principals that are selected and elected have slightly lower mean proficiency levels both in mathematics and in portuguese exams than those attending schools with appointed principals. This result, according to the literature, could be related to perverse effects of selecting school administrators by vote, such as corporatism, clientelism and politicization of the school environment