Advances in Dynamic Modeling and Computation for Count Data

A class of multi-process models is developed for collections of time indexed count data. Autocorrelation in counts is achieved with dynamic models for the natural parameter of the binomial distribution. In addition to modeling binomial time series, the framework includes dynamic models for multinomial and Poisson time series. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Po ́lya-Gamma data augmentation (Polson et al., 2013) are critical for fitting multi-process models of counts. To facilitate computation when the counts are high, a Gaussian approximation to the P ́olya- Gamma random variable is developed.

Three applied analyses are presented to explore the utility and versatility of the framework. The first analysis develops a model for complex dynamic behavior of themes in collections of text documents. Documents are modeled as a “bag of words”, and the multinomial distribution is used to characterize uncertainty in the vocabulary terms appearing in each document. State-space models for the natural parameters of the multinomial distribution induce autocorrelation in themes and their proportional representation in the corpus over time.

The second analysis develops a dynamic mixed membership model for Poisson counts. The model is applied to a collection of time series which record neuron level firing patterns in rhesus monkeys. The monkey is exposed to two sounds simultaneously, and Gaussian processes are used to smoothly model the time-varying rate at which the neuron’s firing pattern fluctuates between features associated with each sound in isolation.

The third analysis presents a switching dynamic generalized linear model for the time-varying home run totals of professional baseball players. The model endows each player with an age specific latent natural ability class and a performance enhancing drug (PED) use indicator. As players age, they randomly transition through a sequence of ability classes in a manner consistent with traditional aging patterns. When the performance of the player significantly deviates from the expected aging pattern, he is identified as a player whose performance is consistent with PED use.

All three models provide a mechanism for sharing information across related series locally in time. The models are fit with variations on the P ́olya-Gamma Gibbs sampler, MCMC convergence diagnostics are developed, and reproducible inference is emphasized throughout the dissertation.

Toxicity of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) in the developing male Wistar(Han) rat I: no decrease in epididymal sperm count after a single acute dose

It has been reported that fetal exposure to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) causes defects in the male reproductive system of the rat. We set out to replicate and extend these effects using a robust experimental design. Groups of 75 (control vehicle) or 55 (50, 200 or 1000 ng of TCDD kg-1 bodyweight) female Wistar(Han) rats were exposed to TCDD on Gestational Day (GD) 15, then allowed to litter. The high dose group dams showed no sustained weight loss compared to control, but four animals had total litter loss. Pups in the high dose group showed reduced body weight up till day 21, and pups in the medium dose group showed reduced body weight in the first week post partum. Balano-preputial separation (BPS) was significantly delayed in the high dose group male offspring. There were no significant effects of treatment when the offspring were subjected to a functional observational battery, or mated with females to assess reproductive capability. 25 males per group were killed on post natal day (PND) 70, and ~60 animals per group (~30 for the high dose group) on PND120 to assess seminology and other endpoints. At PND120, the two highest dose groups showed a statistically significant elevation of sperm counts, compared to control; however, this effect was small (~30%), within the normal range of sperm counts for this strain of rat, was not reflected in testicular spermatid counts nor PND70 data, and is therefore postulated to have no biological significance. Although there was an increase in the proportion of abnormal sperm at PND70, seminology parameters were otherwise unremarkable. Testis weights in the high dose group were slightly decreased at PND 70 and 120, and at PND120, brain weights were decreased in the high dose group, liver to body weight ratios were increased for all three dose groups, with an increase in inflammatory cell foci in the epididymis in the high dose group. These data show that TCDD is a potent developmental toxin after exposure of the developing fetus, but that acute developmental exposure to TCDD on GD15 caused no decrease in sperm counts.

In vivo and in vitro disappearance of energy and nutrients in novel carbohydrates and cereal grains by pigs

In vivo and in vitro experiments were conducted to determine digestibility of GE and nutrients, as well as DE and ME of carbohydrates fed to growing pigs. The objective of Exp. 1 was to determine the DE and ME of 4 novel carbohydrates fed to pigs. The 4 novel carbohydrates were 2 sources of resistant starch (RS 60 and RS 70), soluble corn fiber (SCF), and pullulan. These carbohydrates were produced to increase total dietary fiber (TDF) intake by humans. Maltodextrin (MD) was used as a highly digestible control carbohydrate. The DE and ME for RS 60 (1,779 and 1,903 kcal/kg, respectively), RS 75(1,784 and 1,677 kcal/kg, respectively), and SCF (1,936 and 1,712 kcal/kg, respectively) were less (P < 0.05) than for MD (3,465 and 3,344 kcal/kg, respectively) and pullulan (2,755 and 2,766 kcal/kg, respectively), and pullulan contained less (P < 0.05) DE and ME than MD. However, there was no difference in the DE and ME for RS 60, RS 75, and SCF. The varying degrees of small intestinal digestibility and differences in fermentability among these novel carbohydrates may explain the differences in the DE and ME among carbohydrates. Therefore, the objectives of Exp. 2 were to determine the effect of these 4 novel carbohydrates and cellulose on apparent ileal (AID) and apparent total tract (ATTD) disappearance, and hindgut disappearance (HGD) of GE, TDF, and nutrients when added to diets fed to ileal-cannulated pigs. The second objective was to measure the endogenous flow of TDF to be able to calculate the standardized ileal disappearance (SID) and standardized total tract (STTD) disappearance of TDF in the 4 novel fibers fed to pigs. Results of the experiment indicated that the AID of GE and DM in diets containing cellulose or the novel fibers was less (P < 0.05) than of the maltodextrin diet, but the ATTD of GE and DM was not different among diets. The addition of RS 60, RS 75, and SCF did not affect the AID of acid hydrolysed ether extract (AEE), CP, or ash, but the addition of cellulose and pullulan reduced (P < 0.01) the AID of CP. The average ileal and total tract endogenous losses of TDF were calculated to be 25.25 and 42.87 g/kg DMI, respectively. The SID of TDF in diets containing RS 60, SCF, and pullulan were greater (P < 0.01) than the SID of TDF in the cellulose diet, but the STTD of the SCF diet was greater (P < 0.05) than for the cellulose and pullulan diets. Results of this experiment indicate that the presence of TDF reduces small intestinal disappearance of total carbohydrates and energy which may reduce the DE and ME of diets and ingredients. Therefore, the objective of Exp. 3 was to determine the DE and ME in yellow dent corn, Nutridense corn, dehulled barley, dehulled oats, polished rice, rye, sorghum, and wheat fed to growing pigs and to determine the AID and ATTD of GE, OM, CP, AEE, starch, total carbohydrates, and TDF in these cereal grains fed to pigs. Results indicated that the AID of GE, OM, and total carbohydrates was greater (P < 0.001) in rice than in all other cereal grains. The AID of starch was also greater (P < 0.001) in rice than in yellow dent corn, dehulled barley, rye, and wheat. The ATTD of GE was greater (P < 0.001) in rice than in yellow dent corn, rye, sorghum, and wheat. With a few exceptions, the AID and ATTD of GE and nutrients in Nutridense corn was not different from the values for dehulled oats. Likewise, with a few exceptions, the AID, ATTD, and HGD of GE, OM, total carbohydrates, and TDF in yellow corn, sorghum, and wheat were not different from each other. The AID of GE and AEE in dehulled barley was greater (P < 0.001) than in rye. The ATTD of GE and most nutrients was greater (P < 0.001) in dehulled barley than in rye. Dehulled oats had the greatest (P < 0.001) ME (kcal/kg DM) whereas rye had the least ME (kcal/kg DM) among the cereal grains. Results of the experiment indicate that the presence of TDF and RS may reduce small intestinal digestibility of starch in cereal grains resulting in reduced DE and ME in these grains. Digestibility experiments involving animals are time consuming and expensive. Therefore, the objective of Exp. 4 was to correlate DM and OM digestibility obtained from 3 in vitro procedures with ATTD of GE and with the concentration of DE in 50 corn samples that were fed to growing pigs. The second objective was to develop a regression model that can predict the ATTD of GE or the concentration of DE in corn. The third objective was to evaluate the suitability of using the DaisyII incubator as an alternative to the traditional water bath when determining in vitro DM and OM digestibility. Results indicated that corn samples incubated with Viscozyme for 48 h in the DaisyII incubator improved (P < 0.001) the ability of the procedure to detect small differences in the ATTD of GE or to detect small differences in the concentration of DE in corn. Likewise, compared with using cellulase or fecal inoculum, the variability in the ATTD of GE and the variability in the DE in corn was better (R2 = 0.56; P < 0.05 and R2 = 0.53; P < 0.06, respectively) explained if Viscozyme was used than if cellulase or fecal inoculum was used. A validated regression model that predicted the DE in corn was developed using Viscozyme and with the corn samples incubated in the DaisyII incubator for a 48 h. In conclusion, this present work used the pig as a model for human gastrointestinal function and evaluates carbohydrates from 2 different nutritional perspectives – humans and animals. The addition of novel carbohydrates reduced the digestibility of energy in the diets without necessarily reducing the digestibility of other nutrients. Thus, supplementation of novel carbohydrates in the diets may be beneficial for the management of diabetes. Aside from diabetic management, cereal grains such as rye and sorghum, may also help in BW management because of there low caloric value, but for undernourished individuals, dehulled oats, dehulled barley, and rice are the ideal grains. From an animal nutrition standpoint, high concentration of dietary fiber is undesirable because it reduces feed efficiency. Therefore, the inclusion of feed ingredients that have a high concentration of dietary fiber is often limited in animal diets. Although in vivo determination is ideal, in vitro procedures are useful tools to determine caloric value of food and feed ingredients.

TRIPS and Special & Differential Treatment – Revisiting the Case for Derogations in Applying Patent Protection for Pharmaceuticals in Developing Count

In this paper we apply an implicit threshold approach, malleable to the principle of graduation, to identify countries that should benefit from derogations from WTO TRIPS commitments for pharmaceutical patents under the tenets of Special and Differential Treatment. This is based on the identification of four broad constraints loosely classified as; economic constraints; access topharmaceuticals; capacity constraints; and incidence of health outcomes. We identify these by means of analytical criteria and create a composite index that ranks countries according to the observed constraints which delimit the capabilities and desirability of implementing TRIPs disciplines. We discuss the use of negotiated weights and thresholds in determining participation and graduation into general provisions of the agreement. It follows that countries below the chosen threshold should be exempt from these hence receiving Special and Differential Treatment.

Evaluation of the use of PetrifilmTM EB count plates for the enumeration of Enterobacteriaceae in poultry samples.

Um teste rápido, que apresente o resultado em curto período de tempo, que seja simples, sensível para detectar baixos níveis de micro-organismos, preciso e que não seja caro, seria o mais adequado para a rotina laboratorial da indústria de alimentos ou mesmo para os laboratórios de Saúde Pública. Um dos métodos alternativos prontos para o uso, comercialmente disponíveis no mercado, são as placas PetrifilmTM. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar se há diferença estatística significativa entre o método convencional - empregando o ágar vermelho violeta bile glicose ? e o método alternativo, PetrifilmTM EB (3M Company), para a enumeração de Enterobacteriaceae em carcaças de frango.

A Livestock-Associated, Multidrug-Resistant, Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Clonal Complex 97 Lineage Spreading in Dairy Cattle and Pigs in Italy

Pandemic methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clonal complex 97 (CC97) lineages originated from livestock-to-human host jumps. In recent years, CC97 has become one of the major MRSA lineages detected in Italian farmed animals. The aim of this study was to characterize and analyze differences in MRSA and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) mainly of swine and bovine origins. Forty-seven CC97 isolates, 35 MRSA isolates, and 6 MSSA isolates from different Italian pig and cattle holdings; 5 pig MRSA isolates from Germany; and 1 human MSSA isolate from Spain were characterized by macrorestriction pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) analysis, multilocus sequence typing (MLST), spa typing, staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) typing, and antimicrobial resistance pattern analysis. Virulence and resistance genes were investigated by PCR and microarray analysis. Most of the isolates were of SCCmec type V (SCCmec V), except for two German MRSA isolates (SCCmec III). Five main clusters were identified by PFGE, with the German isolates (clusters I and II) showing 60.5% similarity with the Italian isolates, most of which (68.1%) grouped into cluster V. All CC97 isolates were Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) negative, and a few (n = 7) tested positive for sak or scn. All MRSA isolates were multidrug resistant (MDR), and the main features were erm(B)- or erm(C)-mediated (n = 18) macrolide-lincosamide-streptogramin B resistance, vga(A)-mediated (n = 37) pleuromutilin resistance, fluoroquinolone resistance (n = 33), tet(K) in 32/37 tet(M)-positive isolates, and blaZ in almost all MRSA isolates. Few host-associated differences were detected among CC97 MRSA isolates: their extensive MDR nature in both pigs and dairy cattle may be a consequence of a spillback from pigs of a MRSA lineage that originated in cattle as MSSA and needs further investigation. Measures should be implemented at the farm level to prevent spillover to humans in intensive farming areas.

Novel blaROB-1-bearing plasmid conferring resistance to β-lactams in Haemophilus parasuis isolates from healthy weaning pigs

Haemophilus parasuis, the causative agent of Glässer's disease, is one of the early colonizers of the nasal mucosa of piglets. It is prevalent in swine herds, and lesions associated with disease are fibrinous polyserositis and bronchopneumonia. Antibiotics are commonly used in disease control, and resistance to several antibiotics has been described in H. parasuis. Prediction of H. parasuis virulence is currently limited by our scarce understanding of its pathogenicity. Some genes have been associated with H. parasuis virulence, such as lsgB and group 1 vtaA, while biofilm growth has been associated with nonvirulent strains. In this study, 86 H. parasuis nasal isolates from farms that had not had a case of disease for more than 10 years were obtained by sampling piglets at weaning. Isolates were studied by enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus PCR and determination of the presence of lsgB and group 1 vtaA, biofilm formation, inflammatory cell response, and resistance to antibiotics. As part of the diversity encountered, a novel 2,661-bp plasmid, named pJMA-1, bearing the blaROB-1 β-lactamase was detected in eight colonizing strains. pJMA-1 was shown to share a backbone with other small plasmids described in the Pasteurellaceae, to be 100% stable, and to have a lower biological cost than the previously described plasmid pB1000. pJMA-1 was also found in nine H. parasuis nasal strains from a separate collection, but it was not detected in isolates from the lesions of animals with Glässer's disease or in nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae isolates. Altogether, we show that commensal H. parasuis isolates represent a reservoir of β-lactam resistance genes which can be transferred to pathogens or other bacteria.

Profile of inmates in institutional count (including inmates on authorized absence) as of June 30, 2016

These statistics break down SC inmate population characteristics. It is broken down by male and female, current age, race, marital status, sentencing data, education, leading most serious offenses, top five committing counties, medical classification and mental health classification.

Occurrence of antibodies against Neospora caninum in wild pigs (Sus scrofa) in the Pantanal, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.

Serum samples from 83 free living wild pigs (Sus scrofa) from the Nhecolândia region, Pantanal do Mato Grosso, Brazil, were examined for the presence of antibodies against Neospora caninum by means of the indirect fluorescence antibody test (IFAT) with a cut off of 50. Antibodies were present in 10.8%, with titers of: 1:200 in one animal, 1:400 in four and 1:800 in four. The test showed an association between sex and presence of antibodies, with females showing occurrence of 20.5% and males 2.3% (p = 0.017). No association was found between age and occurrences of antibodies against this parasite. This was the first observation of N. caninum antibodies in Brazilian wild pigs from Pantanal.

Structural Connectivity Of The Default Mode Network And Cognition In Alzheimer׳s Disease.

Disconnectivity between the Default Mode Network (DMN) nodes can cause clinical symptoms and cognitive deficits in Alzheimer׳s disease (AD). We aimed to examine the structural connectivity between DMN nodes, to verify the extent in which white matter disconnection affects cognitive performance. MRI data of 76 subjects (25 mild AD, 21 amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment subjects and 30 controls) were acquired on a 3.0T scanner. ExploreDTI software (fractional Anisotropy threshold=0.25 and the angular threshold=60°) calculated axial, radial, and mean diffusivities, fractional anisotropy and streamline count. AD patients showed lower fractional anisotropy (P=0.01) and streamline count (P=0.029), and higher radial diffusivity (P=0.014) than controls in the cingulum. After correction for white matter atrophy, only fractional anisotropy and radial diffusivity remained significantly lower in AD compared to controls (P=0.003 and P=0.05). In the parahippocampal bundle, AD patients had lower mean and radial diffusivities (P=0.048 and P=0.013) compared to controls, from which only radial diffusivity survived for white matter adjustment (P=0.05). Regression models revealed that cognitive performance is also accounted for by white matter microstructural values. Structural connectivity within the DMN is important to the execution of high-complexity tasks, probably due to its relevant role in the integration of the network.

Understanding Red Blood Cell Parameters In The Context Of The Frailty Phenotype: Interpretations Of The Fibra (frailty In Brazilian Seniors) Study.

Frailty and anemia in the elderly appear to share a common pathophysiology associated with chronic inflammatory processes. This study uses an analytical, cross-sectional, population-based methodology to investigate the probable relationships between frailty, red blood cell parameters and inflammatory markers in 255 community-dwelling elders aged 65 years or older. The frailty phenotype was assessed by non-intentional weight loss, fatigue, low grip strength, low energy expenditure and reduced gait speed. Blood sample analyses were performed to determine hemoglobin level, hematocrit and reticulocyte count, as well as the inflammatory variables IL-6, IL-1ra and hsCRP. In the first multivariate analysis (model I), considering only the erythroid parameters, Hb concentration was a significant variable for both general frailty status and weight loss: a 1.0g/dL drop in serum Hb concentration represented a 2.02-fold increase (CI 1.12-3.63) in an individual's chance of being frail. In the second analysis (model II), which also included inflammatory cytokine levels, hsCRP was independently selected as a significant variable. Each additional year of age represented a 1.21-fold increase in the chance of being frail, and each 1-unit increase in serum hsCRP represented a 3.64-fold increase in the chance of having the frailty phenotype. In model II reticulocyte counts were associated with weight loss and reduced metabolic expenditure criteria. Our findings suggest that reduced Hb concentration, reduced RetAbs count and elevated serum hsCRP levels should be considered components of frailty, which in turn is correlated with sarcopenia, as evidenced by weight loss.

Prostatic Angiogenic Responses In Late Life: Antiangiogenic Therapy Influences And Relation With The Glandular Microenvironment In The Transgenic Adenocarcinoma Of Mouse Prostate (tramp) Model.

Aging is considered one of the main predisposing factors for the development of prostate malignancies. Angiogenesis is fundamental for tumor growth and its inhibition represents a promising therapeutic approach in cancer treatment. Thus, we sought to determine angiogenic responses and the effects of antiangiogenic therapy in the mouse prostate during late life, comparing these findings with the prostatic microenvironment in the Transgenic Adenocarcinoma of Mouse Prostate (TRAMP) model. Male mice (52 week-old FVB) were submitted to treatments with SU5416 (6 mg/kg; i.p.) and/or TNP-470 (15 mg/kg; s.c.). Finasteride was administered (20 mg/kg; s.c.), alone or in association to both inhibitors. The dorsolateral prostate was collected for VEGF, HIF-1α, FGF-2 and endostatin immunohistochemical and Western Blotting analyses and for microvessel density (MVD) count. Senescence led to increased MVD and VEGF, HIF-1α and FGF-2 protein levels in the prostatic microenvironment, similarly to what was observed in TRAMP mice prostate. The angiogenic process was impaired in all the treated groups, demonstrating significantly decreased MVD. Antiangiogenic and/or finasteride treatments resulted in decreased VEGF and HIF-1α levels, especially following TNP-470 administration, either alone or associated to SU5416. The combination of these agents resulted in increased endostatin levels, regardless of the presence of finasteride. Prostatic angiogenesis stimulation during senescence favored the development of neoplastic lesions, considering the pro-angiogenic microenvironment as a common aspect also observed during cancer progression in TRAMP mice. The combined antiangiogenic therapy was more efficient, leading to enhanced imbalance towards angiogenic inhibition in the organ. Finally, finasteride administration might secondarily upregulate the expression of pro-angiogenic factors, pointing to the harmful effects of this therapy. Prostate 75: 484-499, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Endocarditis By Kocuria Rosea In An Immunocompetent Child.

Kocuria rosea belongs to genus Kocuria (Micrococcaceae family, suborder Micrococcineae, order Actinomycetales) that includes about 11 species of bacteria. Usually, Kocuria sp are commensal organisms that colonize oropharynx, skin and mucous membrane; Kocuria sp infections have been described in the last decade commonly affecting immunocompromised patients, using intravenous catheter or peritoneal dialysis. These patients had mainly bacteremia/recurrent sepsis. We hereby describe the case of a 10-year-old girl, immunocompetent, who had endocarditis/sepsis by K. rosea which was identified in five different blood cultures by Vitek 2 ID-GPC card (BioMérieux, France). Negative HIV serology, blood count within normal range of leukocytes/neutrophils and lymphocytes, normal fractions of the complement, normal level of immunoglobulins for the age; lymphocyte immunophenotyping was also within the expected values. Thymus image was normal at chest MRI. No catheters were required. Identification of K. rosea was essential to this case, allowing the differentiation of coagulase-negative staphylococci and use of an effective antibiotic treatment. Careful laboratory analysis of Gram-positive blood-born infections may reveal more cases of Kocuria sp infections in immunocompetent patients, which may collaborate for a better understanding, prevention and early treatment of these infections in pediatrics.