Role of electrophysiological studies in predicting risk of ventricular arrhythmia in early repolarization syndrome.

BACKGROUND The early repolarization (ER) pattern is associated with an increased risk of arrhythmogenic sudden death. However, strategies for risk stratification of patients with the ER pattern are not fully defined. OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the role of electrophysiology studies (EPS) in risk stratification of patients with ER syndrome. METHODS In a multicenter study, 81 patients with ER syndrome (age 36 ± 13 years, 60 males) and aborted sudden death due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) were included. EPS were performed following the index VF episode using a standard protocol. Inducibility was defined by the provocation of sustained VF. Patients were followed up by serial implantable cardioverter-defibrillator interrogations. RESULTS Despite a recent history of aborted sudden death, VF was inducible in only 18 of 81 (22%) patients. During follow-up of 7.0 ± 4.9 years, 6 of 18 (33%) patients with inducible VF during EPS experienced VF recurrences, whereas 21 of 63 (33%) patients who were noninducible experienced recurrent VF (p = 0.93). VF storm occurred in 3 patients from the inducible VF group and in 4 patients in the noninducible group. VF inducibility was not associated with maximum J-wave amplitude (VF inducible vs. VF noninducible; 0.23 ± 0.11 mV vs. 0.21 ± 0.11 mV; p = 0.42) or J-wave distribution (inferior, odds ratio [OR]: 0.96 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.33 to 2.81]; p = 0.95; lateral, OR: 1.57 [95% CI: 0.35 to 7.04]; p = 0.56; inferior and lateral, OR: 0.83 [95% CI: 0.27 to 2.55]; p = 0.74), which have previously been demonstrated to predict outcome in patients with an ER pattern. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that current programmed stimulation protocols do not enhance risk stratification in ER syndrome.

Hormonal Contraception and the Risk of HIV Acquisition: An Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Observational studies of a putative association between hormonal contraception (HC) and HIV acquisition have produced conflicting results. We conducted an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of studies from sub-Saharan Africa to compare the incidence of HIV infection in women using combined oral contraceptives (COCs) or the injectable progestins depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) or norethisterone enanthate (NET-EN) with women not using HC. METHODS AND FINDINGS Eligible studies measured HC exposure and incident HIV infection prospectively using standardized measures, enrolled women aged 15-49 y, recorded ≥15 incident HIV infections, and measured prespecified covariates. Our primary analysis estimated the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) using two-stage random effects meta-analysis, controlling for region, marital status, age, number of sex partners, and condom use. We included 18 studies, including 37,124 women (43,613 woman-years) and 1,830 incident HIV infections. Relative to no HC use, the aHR for HIV acquisition was 1.50 (95% CI 1.24-1.83) for DMPA use, 1.24 (95% CI 0.84-1.82) for NET-EN use, and 1.03 (95% CI 0.88-1.20) for COC use. Between-study heterogeneity was mild (I2 < 50%). DMPA use was associated with increased HIV acquisition compared with COC use (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.23-1.67) and NET-EN use (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.08-1.61). Effect estimates were attenuated for studies at lower risk of methodological bias (compared with no HC use, aHR for DMPA use 1.22, 95% CI 0.99-1.50; for NET-EN use 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.96; and for COC use 0.91, 95% CI 0.73-1.41) compared to those at higher risk of bias (pinteraction = 0.003). Neither age nor herpes simplex virus type 2 infection status modified the HC-HIV relationship. CONCLUSIONS This IPD meta-analysis found no evidence that COC or NET-EN use increases women's risk of HIV but adds to the evidence that DMPA may increase HIV risk, underscoring the need for additional safe and effective contraceptive options for women at high HIV risk. A randomized controlled trial would provide more definitive evidence about the effects of hormonal contraception, particularly DMPA, on HIV risk.

Decision-making in aortic root surgery in Marfan syndrome: bleeding, thromboembolism and risk of reintervention after valve-sparing or mechanical aortic root replacement†

OBJECTIVES Valve-sparing root replacement (VSRR) is thought to reduce the rate of thromboembolic and bleeding events compared with aortic root replacement using a mechanical aortic root replacement (MRR) with a composite graft by avoiding oral anticoagulation. But as VSRR carries a certain risk for subsequent reinterventions, decision-making in the individual patient can be challenging. METHODS Of 100 Marfan syndrome (MFS) patients who underwent 169 aortic surgeries and were followed at our institution since 1995, 59 consecutive patients without a history of dissection or prior aortic surgery underwent elective VSRR or MRR and were retrospectively analysed. RESULTS VSRR was performed in 29 (David n = 24, Yacoub n = 5) and MRR in 30 patients. The mean age was 33 ± 15 years. The mean follow-up after VSRR was 6.5 ± 4 years (180 patient-years) compared with 8.8 ± 9 years (274 patient-years) after MRR. Reoperation rates after root remodelling (Yacoub) were significantly higher than after the reimplantation (David) procedure (60 vs 4.2%, P = 0.01). The need for reinterventions after the reimplantation procedure (0.8% per patient-year) was not significantly higher than after MRR (P = 0.44) but follow-up after VSRR was significantly shorter (P = 0.03). There was neither significant morbidity nor mortality associated with root reoperations. There were no neurological events after VSRR compared with four stroke/intracranial bleeding events in the MRR group (log-rank, P = 0.11), translating into an event rate of 1.46% per patient-year following MRR. CONCLUSION The calculated annual failure rate after VSRR using the reimplantation technique was lower than the annual risk for thromboembolic or bleeding events. Since the perioperative risk of reinterventions following VSRR is low, patients might benefit from VSRR even if redo surgery may become necessary during follow-up.

Recommendations for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 genetic testing to reduce the risk of carbamazepine-induced hypersensitivity reactions.

OBJECTIVE To systematically review evidence on genetic risk factors for carbamazepine (CBZ)-induced hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) and provide practice recommendations addressing the key questions: (1) Should genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 be performed in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy to reduce the occurrence of CBZ-induced HSRs? (2) Are there subgroups of patients who may benefit more from genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 or HLA-A*31:01 compared to others? (3) How should patients with an indication for CBZ therapy be managed based on their genetic test results? METHODS A systematic literature search was performed for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 and their association with CBZ-induced HSRs. Evidence was critically appraised and clinical practice recommendations were developed based on expert group consensus. RESULTS Patients carrying HLA-B*15:02 are at strongly increased risk for CBZ-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN) in populations where HLA-B*15:02 is common, but not CBZ-induced hypersensitivity syndrome (HSS) or maculopapular exanthema (MPE). HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported from Asian countries only, including China, Thailand, Malaysia, and India. HLA-B*15:02 is rare among Caucasians or Japanese; no HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported so far in these groups. HLA-A*31:01-positive patients are at increased risk for CBZ-induced HSS and MPE, and possibly SJS/TEN and acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP). This association has been shown in Caucasian, Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and patients of mixed origin; however, HLA-A*31:01 is common in most ethnic groups. Not all patients carrying either risk variant develop an HSR, resulting in a relatively low positive predictive value of the genetic tests. SIGNIFICANCE This review provides the latest update on genetic markers for CBZ HSRs, clinical practice recommendations as a basis for informed decision making regarding the use of HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 genetic testing in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy, and identifies knowledge gaps to guide future research. A PowerPoint slide summarizing this article is available for download in the Supporting Information section here.

Background Ionizing Radiation and the Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Census-Based Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Exposure to medium or high doses of ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer in children. The extent to which low dose radiation from natural sources contributes to the risk of childhood cancer remains unclear. OBJECTIVES In a nationwide census-based cohort study, we investigated whether the incidence of childhood cancer was associated with background radiation from terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays. METHODS Children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Censuses in 1990 and 2000 were included. The follow-up period lasted until 2008 and incident cancer cases were identified from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. A radiation model was used to predict dose rates from terrestrial and cosmic radiation at locations of residence. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between cancer risk and dose rates and cumulative dose since birth. RESULTS Among 2,093,660 children included at census, 1,782 incident cases of cancer were identified including 530 with leukemia, 328 with lymphoma, and 423 with a tumor of the central nervous system (CNS). Hazard ratios for each mSv increase in cumulative dose of external radiation were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) for any cancer, 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for leukemia, 1.01 (0.96, 1.05) for lymphoma, and 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for CNS tumors. Adjustment for a range of potential confounders had little effect on the results. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggests that background radiation may contribute to the risk of cancer in children including leukemia and CNS tumors.

Metformin and the risk of head and neck cancer: a case-control analysis

AIMS Metformin use has been associated with a decreased risk of some cancers, although data on head and neck cancer (HNC) are scarce. We explored the relation between the use of antidiabetic drugs and the risk of HNC. METHODS We conducted a case-control analysis in the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) of people with incident HNC between 1995 and 2013 below the age of 90 years. Six controls per case were matched on age, sex, calendar time, general practice and number of years of active history in the CPRD prior to the index date. Other potential confounders including body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption and comorbidities were also evaluated. The final analyses were adjusted for BMI, smoking and diabetes mellitus (or diabetes duration in a sensitivity analysis). Results are presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Use of metformin was neither associated with a statistically significant altered risk of HNC overall (1-29 prescriptions: adjusted OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.61-1.24 and ≥ 30 prescriptions adjusted OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.53-1.22), nor was long-term use of sulphonylureas (adjusted OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.59-1.30), or any insulin use (adjusted OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.63-1.35). However, we found a (statistically non-significant) decreased risk of laryngeal cancer associated with long-term metformin use (adjusted OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.17-1.03). CONCLUSIONS In this population-based study, the use of antidiabetic drugs was not associated with a materially altered risk of HNC. Our data suggest a protective effect of long-term metformin use for laryngeal cancer.

Use of diuretics and risk of incident gout: a population-based case-control study

OBJECTIVE Use of diuretics has been associated with an increased risk of gout. Data on different types of diuretics are scarce. We undertook this study to investigate the association between use of loop diuretics, thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics, and potassium-sparing agents and the risk of developing incident gout. METHODS We conducted a retrospective population-based case-control analysis using the General Practice Research Database established in the UK. We identified case patients who were diagnosed as having incident gout between 1990 and 2010. One control patient was matched to each case patient for age, sex, general practice, calendar time, and years of active history in the database. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), and we adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS We identified 91,530 incident cases of gout and the same number of matched controls. Compared to past use of diuretics from each respective drug class, adjusted ORs for current use of loop diuretics, thiazide diuretics, thiazide-like diuretics, and potassium-sparing diuretics were 2.64 (95% CI 2.47-2.83), 1.70 (95% CI 1.62-1.79), 2.30 (95% CI 1.95-2.70), and 1.06 (95% CI 0.91-1.23), respectively. Combined use of loop diuretics and thiazide diuretics was associated with the highest relative risk estimates of gout (adjusted OR 4.65 [95% CI 3.51-6.16]). Current use of calcium channel blockers or losartan slightly attenuated the risk of gout in patients who took diuretics. CONCLUSION Use of loop diuretics, thiazide diuretics, and thiazide-like diuretics was associated with an increased risk of incident gout, although use of potassium-sparing agents was not.

Poorly controlled type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with a decreased risk of incident gout: a population-based case-control study

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to explore the risk of incident gout in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in association with diabetes duration, diabetes severity and antidiabetic drug treatment. METHODS We conducted a case-control study in patients with T2DM using the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). We identified case patients aged ≥18 years with an incident diagnosis of gout between 1990 and 2012. We matched to each case patient one gout-free control patient. We used conditional logistic regression analysis to calculate adjusted ORs (adj. ORs) with 95% CIs and adjusted our analyses for important potential confounders. RESULTS The study encompassed 7536 T2DM cases with a first-time diagnosis of gout. Compared to a diabetes duration <1 year, prolonged diabetes duration (1-3, 3-6, 7-9 and ≥10 years) was associated with decreased adj. ORs of 0.91 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.04), 0.76 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.86), 0.70 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.86), and 0.58 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.66), respectively. Compared to a reference A1C level of <7%, the risk estimates of increasing A1C levels (7.0-7.9, 8.0-8.9 and ≥9%) steadily decreased with adj. ORs of 0.79 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.86), 0.63 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.72), and 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.53), respectively. Neither use of insulin, metformin, nor sulfonylureas was associated with an altered risk of incident gout. CONCLUSIONS Increased A1C levels, but not use of antidiabetic drugs, was associated with a decreased risk of incident gout among patients with T2DM.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been associated with coronary heart disease, but the risk of stroke is unclear. Our aim is to combine the evidence on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke in prospective cohort studies. We searched Medline (OvidSP), Embase, Web-of-Science, Pubmed Publisher, Cochrane and Google Scholar from inception to November 2013 using a cohort filter, but without language restriction or other limitations. Reference lists of articles were searched. Two independent reviewers screened articles according to pre-specified criteria and selected prospective cohort studies with baseline thyroid function measurements and assessment of stroke outcomes. Data were derived using a standardized data extraction form. Quality was assessed according to previously defined quality indicators by two independent reviewers. We pooled the outcomes using a random-effects model. Of 2,274 articles screened, six cohort studies, including 11,309 participants with 665 stroke events, met the criteria. Four of six studies provided information on subclinical hyperthyroidism including a total of 6,029 participants and five on subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 10,118). The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was 1.08 (95 % CI 0.87-1.34) for subclinical hypothyroidism (I (2) of 0 %) and 1.17 (95 % CI 0.54-2.56) for subclinical hyperthyroidism (I (2) of 67 %) compared to euthyroidism. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results. Our systematic review provides no evidence supporting an increased risk for stroke associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. However, the available literature is insufficient and larger datasets are needed to perform extended analyses. Also, there were insufficient events to exclude clinically significant risk from subclinical hyperthyroidism, and more data are required for subgroup analyses.

What is the best time point to identify patients at risk of developing persistent low back pain?

BACKGROUND Early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent low back pain (LBP) is crucial. OBJECTIVE Aim of this study was to identify in patients with a new episode of LBP the time point at which those at risk of developing persistent LBP can be best identified.METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 315 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a first episode of acute LBP. Primary outcome measure was functional limitation. Patients were assessed at baseline, three, six, twelve weeks and six months looking at factors of maladaptive cognition as potential predictors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for all time points. RESULTS The best time point to predict the development of persistent LBP at six months was the twelve-week follow-up (sensitivity 78%; overall predictive value 90%). Cognitions assessed at first visit to a health practitioner were not predictive. CONCLUSIONS Maladaptive cognitions at twelve weeks appear to be suitable predictors for a transition from acute to persistent LBP. Already three weeks after patients present to a health practitioner with acute LBP cognitions might influence the development of persistent LBP. Therefore, cognitive-behavioral interventions should be considered as early adjuvant LBP treatment in patients at risk of developing persistent LBP.

Impact of sepsis on risk of postoperative arterial and venous thromboses: large prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the impact of preoperative sepsis on risk of postoperative arterial and venous thromboses. DESIGN Prospective cohort study using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database of the American College of Surgeons (ACS-NSQIP). SETTING Inpatient and outpatient procedures in 374 hospitals of all types across the United States, 2005-12. PARTICIPANTS 2,305,380 adults who underwent surgical procedures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Arterial thrombosis (myocardial infarction or stroke) and venous thrombosis (deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) in the 30 days after surgery. RESULTS Among all surgical procedures, patients with preoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome or any sepsis had three times the odds of having an arterial or venous postoperative thrombosis (odds ratio 3.1, 95% confidence interval 3.0 to 3.1). The adjusted odds ratios were 2.7 (2.5 to 2.8) for arterial thrombosis and 3.3 (3.2 to 3.4) for venous thrombosis. The adjusted odds ratios for thrombosis were 2.5 (2.4 to 2.6) in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome, 3.3 (3.1 to 3.4) in patients with sepsis, and 5.7 (5.4 to 6.1) in patients with severe sepsis, compared with patients without any systemic inflammation. In patients with preoperative sepsis, both emergency and elective surgical procedures had a twofold increased odds of thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS Preoperative sepsis represents an important independent risk factor for both arterial and venous thromboses. The risk of thrombosis increases with the severity of the inflammatory response and is higher in both emergent and elective surgical procedures. Suspicion of thrombosis should be higher in patients with sepsis who undergo surgery.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Carriage of the PNPLA3 rs738409 C >G polymorphism confers an increased risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease associated hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Subtle inter-patient genetic variation and environmental factors combine to determine disease progression in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Carriage of the PNPLA3 rs738409 c.444C >G minor allele (encoding the I148M variant) has been robustly associated with advanced NAFLD. Although most hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is related to chronic viral hepatitis or alcoholic liver disease, the incidence of NAFLD-related HCC is increasing. We examined whether rs738409 C >G was associated with HCC-risk in patients with NAFLD. METHODS PNPLA3 rs738409 genotype was determined by allelic discrimination in 100 European Caucasians with NAFLD-related HCC and 275 controls with histologically characterised NAFLD. RESULTS Genotype frequencies were significantly different between NAFLD-HCC cases (CC=28, CG=43, GG=29) and NAFLD-controls (CC=125, CG=117, GG=33) (p=0.0001). In multivariate analysis adjusted for age, gender, diabetes, BMI, and presence of cirrhosis, carriage of each copy of the rs738409 minor (G) allele conferred an additive risk for HCC (adjusted OR 2.26 [95% CI 1.23-4.14], p=0.0082), with GG homozygotes exhibiting a 5-fold [1.47-17.29], p=0.01 increased risk over CC. When compared to the UK general population (1958 British Birth Cohort, n=1476), the risk-effect was more pronounced (GC vs. CC: unadjusted OR 2.52 [1.55-4.10], p=0.0002; GG vs. CC: OR 12.19 [6.89-21.58], p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS Carriage of the PNPLA3 rs738409 C >G polymorphism is not only associated with greater risk of progressive steatohepatitis and fibrosis but also of HCC. If validated, these findings suggest that PNPLA3 genotyping has the potential to contribute to multi-factorial patient-risk stratification, identifying those to whom HCC surveillance may be targeted.