The analysis of the basketball coach speech during the moments of game and pause in relation to the performance in competition

In the area of the professional competition, the coach is a fundamental part in the management of a team and more concretely in the game planning. During the competition, the management of the times of pause and times out as well as the conduct of the coach during the same ones is an aspect to analyze in the sports performance. It is for this that it becomes necessary to know some of the behaviors that turn out to be more frequent by the coach and that are more related to a positive performance of his players. For it there has been realized a study of 7 cases of expert coaches in those that his verbal behavior has observed during 4 games. It has focused on the content of the information only to verbal level, on his meaning. The information that have been obtained in the study shows a major quantity of information elaborated during the pauses of the games and a major tactical content with regard to the moments of game. On the other hand, a relation exists between a major number of questions and a minor number of psychological instructions when the score is adverse, whereas in case of victory, a direct relation does not exist with any category. The rest of categories of the speech do not meet influenced directly for the result, for what it is not possible to consider a direct and immediate relation between the coach verbal behavior during the pauses and the result of the game, except in punctual moments.

Ball possession effectiveness in men's and women's elite basketball according to situational variables in different game periods

The aim of the present study was to identify the importance of floorball tactical variables to predict ball possession effectiveness, when controlling quality of opposition and game periods. The sample was composed by 1500 ball possessions, corresponding to 14 games randomly selected from the International Championships played during 2008 and 2010 (World Championship, Four nations tournament and classificatory phases for World Championship) by teams from different competition levels (HIGH, INTERMEDIATE and LOW). The effects of the predictor variables on successful ball possessions according to the three game contexts (HIGH vs. HIGH; HIGH vs. LOW; LOW vs. LOW games) were analyzed using Binomial Logistic Regressions. The results showed no interaction with the game period. In HIGH vs. HIGH games, quality of opposition showed an association with ball possession effectiveness with ending zone, offensive system, possession duration, height of shooting and defensive pressures previous to the shot. In HIGH vs. LOW games the important factors were the starting zone, possession duration, defensive pressure previous to the last pass and to the shot, technique of shooting and the number players involved in each ball possession. Finally, in LOW vs. LOW games, the results emphasized the importance of starting and ending zones, the number of passes used and the technique of shooting. In conclusion, elite floorball performance is mainly affected by quality of opposition showing different game patterns in each context that should be considered by coaches when preparing practices and competitions.

Geometric Study of the Weak Equilibrium in a Weighted Case for a Two-Dimensional Competition Game

In this work, an improvement of the results presented by [1] Abellanas et al. (Weak Equilibrium in a Spatial Model. International Journal of Game Theory, 40(3), 449-459) is discussed. Concretely, this paper investigates an abstract game of competition between two players that want to earn the maximum number of points from a finite set of points in the plane. It is assumed that the distribution of these points is not uniform, so an appropriate weight to each position is assigned. A definition of equilibrium which is weaker than the classical one is included in order to avoid the uniqueness of the equilibrium position typical of the Nash equilibrium in these kinds of games. The existence of this approximated equilibrium in the game is analyzed by means of computational geometry techniques.

Cooperative Multi-robot Patrolling: A study of distributed approaches based on mathematical models of game theory to protect infrastructures

El principio de Teoría de Juegos permite desarrollar modelos estocásticos de patrullaje multi-robot para proteger infraestructuras criticas. La protección de infraestructuras criticas representa un gran reto para los países al rededor del mundo, principalmente después de los ataques terroristas llevados a cabo la década pasada. En este documento el termino infraestructura hace referencia a aeropuertos, plantas nucleares u otros instalaciones. El problema de patrullaje se define como la actividad de patrullar un entorno determinado para monitorear cualquier actividad o sensar algunas variables ambientales. En esta actividad, un grupo de robots debe visitar un conjunto de puntos de interés definidos en un entorno en intervalos de tiempo irregulares con propósitos de seguridad. Los modelos de partullaje multi-robot son utilizados para resolver este problema. Hasta el momento existen trabajos que resuelven este problema utilizando diversos principios matemáticos. Los modelos de patrullaje multi-robot desarrollados en esos trabajos representan un gran avance en este campo de investigación. Sin embargo, los modelos con los mejores resultados no son viables para aplicaciones de seguridad debido a su naturaleza centralizada y determinista. Esta tesis presenta cinco modelos de patrullaje multi-robot distribuidos e impredecibles basados en modelos matemáticos de aprendizaje de Teoría de Juegos. El objetivo del desarrollo de estos modelos está en resolver los inconvenientes presentes en trabajos preliminares. Con esta finalidad, el problema de patrullaje multi-robot se formuló utilizando conceptos de Teoría de Grafos, en la cual se definieron varios juegos en cada vértice de un grafo. Los modelos de patrullaje multi-robot desarrollados en este trabajo de investigación se han validado y comparado con los mejores modelos disponibles en la literatura. Para llevar a cabo tanto la validación como la comparación se ha utilizado un simulador de patrullaje y un grupo de robots reales. Los resultados experimentales muestran que los modelos de patrullaje desarrollados en este trabajo de investigación trabajan mejor que modelos de trabajos previos en el 80% de 150 casos de estudio. Además de esto, estos modelos cuentan con varias características importantes tales como distribución, robustez, escalabilidad y dinamismo. Los avances logrados con este trabajo de investigación dan evidencia del potencial de Teoría de Juegos para desarrollar modelos de patrullaje útiles para proteger infraestructuras. ABSTRACT Game theory principle allows to developing stochastic multi-robot patrolling models to protect critical infrastructures. Critical infrastructures protection is a great concern for countries around the world, mainly due to terrorist attacks in the last decade. In this document, the term infrastructures includes airports, nuclear power plants, and many other facilities. The patrolling problem is defined as the activity of traversing a given environment to monitoring any activity or sensing some environmental variables If this activity were performed by a fleet of robots, they would have to visit some places of interest of an environment at irregular intervals of time for security purposes. This problem is solved using multi-robot patrolling models. To date, literature works have been solved this problem applying various mathematical principles.The multi-robot patrolling models developed in those works represent great advances in this field. However, the models that obtain the best results are unfeasible for security applications due to their centralized and predictable nature. This thesis presents five distributed and unpredictable multi-robot patrolling models based on mathematical learning models derived from Game Theory. These multi-robot patrolling models aim at overcoming the disadvantages of previous work. To this end, the multi-robot patrolling problem was formulated using concepts of Graph Theory to represent the environment. Several normal-form games were defined at each vertex of a graph in this formulation. The multi-robot patrolling models developed in this research work have been validated and compared with best ranked multi-robot patrolling models in the literature. Both validation and comparison were preformed by using both a patrolling simulator and real robots. Experimental results show that the multirobot patrolling models developed in this research work improve previous ones in as many as 80% of 150 cases of study. Moreover, these multi-robot patrolling models rely on several features to highlight in security applications such as distribution, robustness, scalability, and dynamism. The achievements obtained in this research work validate the potential of Game Theory to develop patrolling models to protect infrastructures.

Architecture as a game field. House of would

Artículo del proyecto House of Would del estudio Elii en la revista Panorama

Innovations in the video game industry: changing global markets

The paper examines the video game industry in the perspective of being the paradigm of innovation in digital media and content. In particular, it analyses the response to two main factors that have impacted this industry over the last decade. First, it tracks the evolution of its global market and its emerging geography with the rise of Asia. Second, within this global landscape the paper explores how the changes derived from mobile and on-line gaming enabled major transformations of this industry. From here, some conclusions on the lessons from the evolution of this sector for the whole media and content industries are presented.

A game theory based strategy for reducing energy consumption in cognitive WSN

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are one of the most important users of wireless communication technologies in the coming years and some challenges in this area must be addressed for their complete development. Energy consumption and spectrum availability are two of the most severe constraints of WSNs due to their intrinsic nature. The introduction of cognitive capabilities into these networks has arisen to face the issue of spectrum scarcity but could be used to face energy challenges too due to their new range of communication possibilities. In this paper a new strategy based on game theory for cognitive WSNs is discussed. The presented strategy improves energy consumption by taking advantage of the new change-communication-channel capability. Based on game theory, the strategy decides when to change the transmission channel depending on the behavior of the rest of the network nodes. The strategy presented is lightweight but still has higher energy saving rates as compared to noncognitive networks and even to other strategies based on scheduled spectrum sensing. Simulations are presented for several scenarios that demonstrate energy saving rates of around 65% as compared to WSNs without cognitive techniques.

3D simulation of complex shading affecting PV systems taking benefit from the power of graphics cards developed for the video game industry

Shading reduces the power output of a photovoltaic (PV) system. The design engineering of PV systems requires modeling and evaluating shading losses. Some PV systems are affected by complex shading scenes whose resulting PV energy losses are very difficult to evaluate with current modeling tools. Several specialized PV design and simulation software include the possibility to evaluate shading losses. They generally possess a Graphical User Interface (GUI) through which the user can draw a 3D shading scene, and then evaluate its corresponding PV energy losses. The complexity of the objects that these tools can handle is relatively limited. We have created a software solution, 3DPV, which allows evaluating the energy losses induced by complex 3D scenes on PV generators. The 3D objects can be imported from specialized 3D modeling software or from a 3D object library. The shadows cast by this 3D scene on the PV generator are then directly evaluated from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU). Thanks to the recent development of GPUs for the video game industry, the shadows can be evaluated with a very high spatial resolution that reaches well beyond the PV cell level, in very short calculation times. A PV simulation model then translates the geometrical shading into PV energy output losses. 3DPV has been implemented using WebGL, which allows it to run directly from a Web browser, without requiring any local installation from the user. This also allows taken full benefits from the information already available from Internet, such as the 3D object libraries. This contribution describes, step by step, the method that allows 3DPV to evaluate the PV energy losses caused by complex shading. We then illustrate the results of this methodology to several application cases that are encountered in the world of PV systems design. Keywords: 3D, modeling, simulation, GPU, shading, losses, shadow mapping, solar, photovoltaic, PV, WebGL

A control theoretic approach to solve a constrained uplink power dynamic game

This paper addresses an uplink power control dynamic game where we assume that each user battery represents the system state that changes with time following a discrete-time version of a differential game. To overcome the complexity of the analysis of a dynamic game approach we focus on the concept of Dynamic Potential Games showing that the game can be solved as an equivalent Multivariate Optimum Control Problem. The solution of this problem is quite interesting because different users split the activity in time, avoiding higher interferences and providing a long term fairness.

Hybridization Processes: The case of the urban game: Hybrid Hunt: Petrified

The proposal highlights certain design strategies and a case study that can link the material urban space to digital emerging realms. The composite nature of urban spaces ?material/ digital- is understood as an opportunity to reconfigure public urban spaces without high-cost, difficult to apply interventions and, furthermore, to reactivate them by inserting dynamic, interactive and playful conditions that engage people and re-establish their relations to the cities. The structuring of coexisting and interconnected material and digital aspects in public urban spaces is proposed through the implementation of hybridization processes. Hybrid spaces can fascinate and provoke the public and especially younger people to get involved and interact with physical aspects of urban public spaces as well as digital representations or interpretations of those. Digital game?s design in urban public spaces can be comprehended as a tool that allows architects to understand and to configure hybrids of material and digital conceptions and project all in one, as an inseparable totality. Digital technologies have for a long time now intervened in our perception of traditional dipoles such as subject - environment. Architects, especially in the past, have been responsible for material mediations and tangible interfaces that permit subjects to relate to their physical environments in a controlled and regulated manner; but, nowadays, architects are compelled to embody in design, the transition that is happening in all aspects of everyday life, that is, from material to digital realities. In addition, the disjunctive relation of material and digital realms is ceding and architects are now faced with the challenge that supposes the merging of both in a single, all-inclusive reality. The case study is a design project for a game implemented simultaneously in a specific urban space and on the internet. This project developed as the spring semester course New Media in Architecture at the Department of Architecture, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece is situated at the city of Xanthi. Composite cities can use design strategies and technological tools to configure augmented and appealing urban spaces that articulate and connect different realms in a single engaging reality.

A real case of a cognitive multiplayer game: design and development of the iOS client in Swift and its cloud architecture

as tecnologías emergentes como el cloud computing y los dispositivos móviles están creando una oportunidad sin precedentes para mejorar el sistema educativo, permitiendo tanto a los educadores personalizar y mejorar la experiencia de aprendizaje, como facilitar a los estudiantes que adquieran conocimientos sin importar dónde estén. Por otra parte, a través de técnicas de gamificacion será posible promover y motivar a los estudiantes a que aprendan materias arduas haciendo que la experiencia sea más motivadora. Los juegos móviles pueden ser el camino correcto para dar soporte a esta experiencia de aprendizaje mejorada. Este proyecto integra el diseño y desarrollo de una arquitectura en la nube altamente escalable y con alto rendimiento, así como el propio cliente de iOS, para dar soporte a una nueva version de Temporis, un juego móvil multijugador orientado a reordenar eventos históricos en una línea temporal (e.j. historia, arte, deportes, entretenimiento y literatura). Temporis actualmente está disponible en Google Play. Esta memoria describe el desarrollo de la nueva versión de Temporis (Temporis v.2.0) proporcionando detalles acerca de la mejora y adaptación basados en el Temporis original. En particular se describe el nuevo backend hecho en Go sobre Google App Engine creado para soportar miles de usuarios, asó como otras características por ejemplo como conseguir enviar noticaciones push desde la propia plataforma. Por último, el cliente de iOS en Temporis v.2.0 se ha desarrollado utilizando las últimas y más relevantes tecnologías, prestando especial atención a Swift (el lenguaje de programación nuevo de Apple, que es seguro y rápido), el Paradigma Funcional Reactivo (que ayuda a construir aplicaciones altamente interactivas además de a minimizar errores) y la arquitectura VIPER (una arquitectura que sigue los principios SOLID, se centra en la separación de asuntos y favorece la reutilización de código en otras plataformas). ABSTRACT Emerging technologies such as cloud computing and mobile devices are creating an unprecedented opportunity for enhancing the educational system, letting both educators customize and improve the learning experience, and students acquire knowledge regardless of where they are. Moreover, through gamification techniques it would be possible to encourage and motivate students to learn arduous subjects by making the experience more motivating. Mobile games can be a perfect vehicle to support this enhanced learning experience. This project integrates the design and development of a highly scalable and performant cloud architecture, as well as the iOS client that uses it, in order to provide support to a new version of Temporis, a mobile multiplayer game focused on ordering time-based (e.g. history, art, sports, entertainment and literature) in a timeline that currently is available on Google Play. This work describes the development of the new Temporis version (Temporis v.2.0), providing details about improvements and details on the adaptation of the original Temporis. In particular, the new Google App Engine backend is described, which was created to support thousand of users developed in Go language are provided, in addition to other features like how to achieve push notications in this platform. Finally, the mobile iOS client developed using the latest and more relevant technologies is explained paying special attention to Swift (Apple's new programming language, that is safe and fast), the Functional Reactive Paradigm (that helps building highly interactive apps while minimizing bugs) and the VIPER architecture (a SOLID architecture that enforces separation of concerns and makes it easy to reuse code for other platforms).

Nagele: un nuevo asentamiento en un paisaje artificial

Nagele es un asentamiento urbano situado en el Noordoostpolder, territorio neerlandés ganado al mar. Fue diseñado por arquitectos de los grupos De 8 en Opbouw entre los que destacaron Rietveld, Van Eesteren, Van Eyck, Bakema, Stam y Ruys. El proyecto se desarrolló entre 1947 y 1956, un periodo de tiempo con formas de proyectar muy ricas en interpretaciones. Los arquitectos pusieron en crisis los planteamientos historicistas de las nuevas poblaciones de los pólderes. Propusieron un nuevo prototipo, una morfología compacta y concéntrica que transmitiría igualdad a una comunidad agrícola, entendida como una sociedad urbana del siglo XX. La administración apoyó la propuesta que convertiría el proyecto en un arriesgado reto por su falta de antecedentes. La vigencia de las formulaciones permanece hoy en día en la ciudad construida, aunque con alteraciones. En los dibujos del proceso se encuentran los principales enunciados teóricos que este trabajo pretende descubrir. El trabajo aborda aspectos no suficientemente explorados, como su relación con el pólder, la evolución de las estrategias proyectivas, la ordenación paisajista y los elementos urbanos. El Noordoostpolder es la culminación de una serie de experiencias multidisciplinares en el reclamo de tierras a gran escala. Se estudia su estructura urbana policéntrica, la parcelación agrícola que origina el proyecto urbano y la vinculación de la vegetación con la infraestructura, proporcionando orientación, protección climática y escala humana, conceptos que impregnan las estrategias del proyecto urbano. La primera fase de la ordenación configuró áreas monofuncionales que respondían a cada una de las cuatro necesidades básicas del método científico de la ciudad higienista. El acontecimiento que marcó el final de la primera fase fue su presentación en el séptimo CIAM de 1949, cuyo título fue Aplicación de la Carta de Atenas. El programa residencial se dividió en clusters organizados en torno a una pradera vecinal central, vinculándose el orden vecinal, urbano y territorial. La segunda fase fue un catalizador de nuevos planteamientos. El proyecto se transformó en un In-between Realm, un escenario teórico donde coexisten fenómenos tradicionalmente antagónicos que Van Eyck denominó Twin Phenomena, convirtiéndose la ciudad en una réplica formal de la ambivalencia de la mente humana. La indefinición espacial no programada en la propuesta anterior se transformó en un conjunto de espacios urbanos, con límites y dimensiones adaptados a la escala humana. El proyecto es anterior a la obra escrita de Van Eyck por lo que estimuló sus enunciados teóricos. Unas ideas también reconocidas en los tres CIAM posteriores en los que también se expuso el proyecto. El diseño paisajista se integra en el proyecto urbano desde sus orígenes. El límite se compone de una barrera boscosa que protege climáticamente, proporciona escala humana y control visual frente a las llanuras infinitas del pólder. Van Eyck sintetizó el proyecto como una habitación verde sin techo, afirmación que dilucida su equivalencia con el de un interior doméstico. Exteriormente la ciudad se convierte en una unidad autónoma del territorio. Interiormente, un sistema jerarquizado de vegetación vinculado a la arquitectura y la infraestructura constituye espacios urbanos de diferentes escalas. La propuesta fue transformada por Boer y Ruys en un nuevo espacio urbano único, no asimilando los conceptos anteriores. El proyecto y construcción de los primeros elementos urbanos consistió en un reparto de tareas a De 8 en Opbouw, hecho que estimula estudiar su relación con el proyecto urbano. La estructura policéntrica organiza las aulas de las escuelas de Van Eyck, las diferentes áreas confesionales del cementerio de Ruys y las unidades residenciales, diseñadas por Stam, Rietveld y Stam-Besse. Los Twin Phenomena alcanzan un acuerdo en el corredor comercial, diseñado por Bakema y Van der Broek. La generación de espacios dentro de otros aparece también en el cementerio, a través de una nueva barrera boscosa y en el sistema de pliegues del muro que configura la iglesia de Bakema y Van der Broek. El proyecto se vincula a un planteamiento holístico, mediante el que el diseño de cada uno de sus elementos tiene en cuenta las estrategias proyectivas del todo del cual forma parte, convirtiéndose, al igual que las obras de De Stijl, en parte de una composición infinita que acerca arte y diseño en la vida cotidiana de la sociedad. La diversidad generacional e ideológica de estos arquitectos convirtió el proyecto en un tablero de juego sobre el que se aplicaron diferentes formas de proyectar la ciudad, ubicando a Nagele en un punto de inflexión del Movimiento Moderno. ABSTRACT The research focuses on the Nagele project, a Dutch urban settlement located in the Noordoostpolder, a territory which was entirely reclaimed from the IJsselmeer lake. It was designed by a group of architects from the De 8 and Opbouw teams, the leading protagonists being Rietveld, Van Eesteren, Van Eyck, Bakema, Stam y Ruys. It was designed from 1947 to 1956, a fruitful period in urban planning. These architects questioned the traditionalist urban design applied to the new populations in the IJsselmeer polders. Facing their principles, the work group proposed a new prototype; a compact and concentric urban pattern to foster equality in a new community of farm labourers, which was recognized by the architects as a twentieth century urban society. The government supported their new proposals. The lack of implementation of the innovatory conceptual statements subjected the project into a high-risk challenge. However, in spite of these difficulties, the basic concepts remain though partially transformed, in the actual city. The project drawings reflect the principle concepts that this work aims to discover. Some approaches that have not been sufficiently studied are tackled in this thesis. Firstly, the project´s relationship with the polder. Secondly, the evolution of projective strategies during the period of urban planning, the landscape design and the design of urban elements. The Noordoostpolder is the culmination of a series of multi-disciplinary experiences in large scale land reclamation, whose polycentric urban structure and agricultural subdivision provide the framework of Nagele. Linking the vegetation to infrastructure fostered orientation, climate protection and human scale; strategies which were repeated, though on a smaller scale, in the actual city. The first phase of the project was composed of mono-functional urban areas which responded to each of the four basic human needs indicated by the scientific method of the functional city. The presentation of the project at the seventh CIAM in 1949 was the event which marked the end of the first phase of the planning. This congress was entitled Implementation of the Athens Charter. The residential program was divided into housing clusters surrounding a central prairie, a pattern which was related to its urban and territorial whole. The second phase of the plan was subjected to a new theoretical approach. The urban planning became an In-between Realm, a theoretical scenario where traditionally antagonistic concepts coexist. Van Eyck named these concepts Twin Phenomena. The city thus conceived of as a counterform of the ambivalence of the human mind where spatial indefinition in the previous proposals was transformed into a Bunch of Places with defined boundaries and dimensions, all of which reflecting human scale. The landscape design was integrated into the urban project from its inception. The limits consist of a green wind-barrier which not only provides climate protection but also provides human scale and visual control towards the unlimited plains of the polder. Van Eyck summarised the project as a green room without a roof. This statement elucidates its equivalence to a domestic interior. Outwardly, the city becomes an autonomous unit on the territory. Inwardly a hierarchical vegetation system is linked to architecture and infrastructure. Together, they configure different scales of urban spaces. The proposal was transformed by Boer and Ruys into a unique urban space without assimilating Van Eyck´s concepts. The study of the Nagele landscape project of Nagele and the writings of Van Eyck verify the fact that many of his theoretical foundations (In-between Realm, Twin Phenomena, Bunch of Places, Right Scale) can be applied not only to architecture and city but also to landscape design. The application of these principles led the Nagele project to become a counterform of Van Eyck´s thinking. The design and construction of the first urban elements involved a distribution of tasks to De 8 en Opbouw, which stimulated their relationship with the urban project. The polycentric structure organised the school classrooms outlined by Van Eyck, the different areas of the cemetery planned by Ruys and the housing clusters designed by Stam, Rietveld and Stam-Besse. The Twin Phenomena concept can be applied in Van der Broek´s shopping corridor. The concept space within another space is also implemented in the cemetery surrounded by a new green barrier, and in the church built by Van der Broek and Bakema, whose spaces are configured by a folding wall. The project takes a holistic approach, which considers the design of each element within the strategies of the whole, where they become parts of an infinite composition, as in the art works of De Stijl fostering art and design to ordinary people´s daily lives. The generational and ideological diversity of these architects turned the project into a game board on which different ways of planning the city were played, obtaining Nagele the distinction of being a turning point of Modernism.

American fishes; a popular treatise upon the game and food fishes of North America, with especial reference to habits and methods of capture, by G. Brown Goode...with numerous illustrations.

1st ed.

Who has a repeat abortion? Identifying women at risk of repeated terminations of pregnancy : analysis of routinely collected health care data

Peer reviewed

Variable efficacy of repeated annual influenza vaccination

Conclusions have differed in studies that have compared vaccine efficacy in groups receiving influenza vaccine for the first time to efficacy in groups vaccinated more than once. For example, the Hoskins study [Hoskins, T. W., Davis, J. R., Smith, A. J., Miller, C. L. & Allchin, A. (1979) Lancet i, 33–35] concluded that repeat vaccination was not protective in the long term, whereas the Keitel study [Keitel, W. A., Cate, T. R., Couch, R. B., Huggins, L. L. & Hess, K. R. (1997) Vaccine 15, 1114–1122] concluded that repeat vaccination provided continual protection. We propose an explanation, the antigenic distance hypothesis, and test it by analyzing seven influenza outbreaks that occurred during the Hoskins and Keitel studies. The hypothesis is that variation in repeat vaccine efficacy is due to differences in antigenic distances among vaccine strains and between the vaccine strains and the epidemic strain in each outbreak. To test the hypothesis, antigenic distances were calculated from historical hemagglutination inhibition assay tables, and a computer model of the immune response was used to predict the vaccine efficacy of individuals given different vaccinations. The model accurately predicted the observed vaccine efficacies in repeat vaccinees relative to the efficacy in first-time vaccinees (correlation 0.87). Thus, the antigenic distance hypothesis offers a parsimonious explanation of the differences between and within the Hoskins and Keitel studies. These results have implications for the selection of influenza vaccine strains, and also for vaccination strategies for other antigenically variable pathogens that might require repeated vaccination.