A new perspective on the PPP hypothesis

This paper the stastistical properties of the real exchange rates of G-5 countries for the Bretton-Woods peiod, and draw implications on the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. In contrast to most previous studies that consider only unit root and stationary process to describe the real exchange tae, this paper also considers two in-between processes, the locally persistent process ans the fractionally integrated process, to complement past studies. Seeking to be consistent with tha ample evidence of near unit in the real exchange rate movements very well. This finding implies that: 1) the real exchange movement is more persistent than the stationary case but less persistent than the unit root case; 2) the real exchange rate is non-stationary but the PPP reversion occurs and the PPP holds in the long run; 3) the real exchange rate does not exhibit the secular dependence of the fractional integration; 4) the real exchange rate evolves over time in a way that there is persistence over a range of time, but the effect of shocks will eventually disappear over time horizon longer than order O (nd), that is, at finite time horizon; 5) shocks dissipation is fasters than predicted by the fractional integracion, and the total sum of the effects of a unit innovation is finite, implying that a full PPP reversion occurs at finite horizons. These results may explain why pasrt empirical estudies could not provide a clear- conclusion on the real exchange rate processes and the PPP hypothesis.

Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models

The aim of this paper is to test whether or not there was evidence of contagion across the various financial crises that assailed some countries in the 1990s. Data on sovereign debt bonds for Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Argentina were used to implement the test. The contagion hypothesis is tested using multivariate volatility models. If there is any evidence of structural break in volatility that can be linked to financial crises, the contagion hypothesis will be confirmed. Results suggest that there is evidence in favor of the contagion hypothesis.

Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change

This paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic 1 qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.

March 4th, 1999 : the recognition-primed decision hypothesis

On March 4, 1999, the newly appointed President of the Brazilian Central Bank, Mr Armínio Fraga, raised interest rates to a staggering 45% per annum. The objective of that decision was to keep foreign investors assets in Brazil, and prevent the country from default. At the time, Brazil suffered frem an enormously intense crisis of confidence, and fears of such default were widespread. Mr Fraga was walking a very fine line when making that decision, for it could bring forth unintended effects: the market, already concerned about Brazil's sustainability, could perceive the increased rate as an irreversible step towards the abyss inevitable default. Economic theory postulates the rational actor model as the driving force behind economic decision-making. The objective of this thesis is to present and discuss the hypothesis that this particular decision, and by extension many others, are better explained threugh the recognition-primed decision mode!.

Essays in recursive equilibrium and market selection hypothesis

Este trabalho consiste em estudar modelos incluindo agentes com informação completa e incompleta sobre o ambiente econômico. Prova-se a existência de equilíbrio em que esses dois agentes coexistem e sob, algumas condições, obtêm-se que esse equilíbrio é recursivo e contínuo, ou seja, pode ser implementado por uma função contínua de transição que relaciona as variáveis de equilíbrio entre dois períodos consecutivos. Mostra-se, sob algumas hipóteses, que em equilíbrios recursivos contínuos, os agentes que cometem erros persistentes nas antecipações dos preços de equilíbrio são eliminados do mercado. Finalmente, exibimos diversos exemplos numéricos, no caso de mercados incompletos e informação completa, em que os agentes com expectativas racionais são eliminados do mercado. Usam-se métodos numéricos alternativos que possibilitam computar um equilíbrio em modelos com agentes heterogêneos.

The effects of commodity dependence on the brazilian economy: a test of the dutch disease hypothesis

A doença holandesa tornou-se amplamente conhecida na década de 1960, quando a descoberta repentina de reservatórios de gás natural em território holandês, na região do mar do norte, transformou o país em uma economia rica em recursos. A desagradável consequência que proveio da recém-adquirida abundância de commodities foi o declínio da próspera indústria holandesa, que perdeu sua competitividade devido à valorização do florim holandês, como consequência do aumento do influxo de capital estrangeiro no país. Desde então este fenômeno tem sido observado em diversos países que possuem abundância de commodities. O objetivo desta tese é aplicar o modelo da doença holandesa ao Brasil, já que a maior economia da América latina poderá também ter de encarar a ameaça de se tornar prisioneira da “armadilha das commodities”, devido à sua abundância de recursos naturais. O autor revisa a bibliografia básica abordando o tema geral da doença holandesa e dá enfoque a estudos realizados anteriormente no Brasil. Além disso, os quatro maiores sintomas que caracterizam a doença holandesa são testados: (1) valorização das taxas de câmbio do real, (2) declínio do setor industrial, (3) crescimento do setor de serviços, e (4) aumento dos salários. Todos estes sintomas foram observados e podem ser comprovados através das abordagens de cointegração ou de correlação, com exceção do sintoma número dois. Ainda que estes resultados sejam significativos, há muito outros fatores determinantes que influenciam o desenvolvimento dos sintomas examinados, motivo pelo qual futuros estudos serão necessários para se obtiver conclusões definitivas sobre como o Brasil é afetado pela doença holandesa.

Wage inequality and trade liberalization : evidence from Argentina

Wage inequality has increased substantially in Argentina during the nineties. At the same time during this decade Argentina has gone through a rapid and deep process of trade liberalization. In this paper we try to associate both phenomena. In particular, we attempt to answer the following question: Did trade liberalization play any role in shaping the argentine wage structure during the period studied? Specifically, we test whether those sectors where import penetration deepened are also the sectors where, ceteris paribus, a higher increase in wage inequality has taken place. We fmd evidence that supports this hypothesis.

Rapid prototyping of ubiquitous computing environments

Ubiquitous computing raises new usability challenges that cut across design and development. We are particularly interested in environments enhanced with sensors, public displays and personal devices. How can prototypes be used to explore the users' mobility and interaction, both explicitly and implicitly, to access services within these environments? Because of the potential cost of development and design failure, these systems must be explored using early assessment techniques and versions of the systems that could disrupt if deployed in the target environment. These techniques are required to evaluate alternative solutions before making the decision to deploy the system on location. This is crucial for a successful development, that anticipates potential user problems, and reduces the cost of redesign. This thesis reports on the development of a framework for the rapid prototyping and analysis of ubiquitous computing environments that facilitates the evaluation of design alternatives. It describes APEX, a framework that brings together an existing 3D Application Server with a modelling tool. APEX-based prototypes enable users to navigate a virtual world simulation of the envisaged ubiquitous environment. By this means users can experience many of the features of the proposed design. Prototypes and their simulations are generated in the framework to help the developer understand how the user might experience the system. These are supported through three different layers: a simulation layer (using a 3D Application Server); a modelling layer (using a modelling tool) and a physical layer (using external devices and real users). APEX allows the developer to move between these layers to evaluate different features. It supports exploration of user experience through observation of how users might behave with the system as well as enabling exhaustive analysis based on models. The models support checking of properties based on patterns. These patterns are based on ones that have been used successfully in interactive system analysis in other contexts. They help the analyst to generate and verify relevant properties. Where these properties fail then scenarios suggested by the failure provide an important aid to redesign.

Effectiveness of high-throughput miniaturized sorbent- and solid phase microextraction techniques combined with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry analysis for a rapid screening of volatile and semi-volatile composition of wines: a comparative study

In this study the feasibility of different extraction procedures was evaluated in order to test their potential for the extraction of the volatile (VOCs) and semi-volatile constituents (SVOCs) from wines. In this sense, and before they could be analysed by gas chromatography–quadrupole first stage masss spectrometry (GC–qMS), three different high-throughput miniaturized (ad)sorptive extraction techniques, based on solid phase extraction (SPE), microextraction by packed sorbents (MEPS) and solid phase microextraction (SPME), were studied for the first time together, for the extraction step. To achieve the most complete volatile and semi-volatile signature, distinct SPE (LiChrolut EN, Poropak Q, Styrene-Divinylbenzene and Amberlite XAD-2) and MEPS (C2, C8, C18, Silica and M1 (mixed C8-SCX)) sorbent materials, and different SPME fibre coatings (PA, PDMS, PEG, DVB/CAR/PDMS, PDMS/DVB, and CAR/PDMS), were tested and compared. All the extraction techniques were followed by GC–qMS analysis, which allowed the identification of up to 103 VOCs and SVOCs, distributed by distinct chemical families: higher alcohols, esters, fatty acids, carbonyl compounds and furan compounds. Mass spectra, standard compounds and retention index were used for identification purposes. SPE technique, using LiChrolut EN as sorbent (SPELiChrolut EN), was the most efficient method allowing for the identification of 78 VOCs and SVOCs, 63 and 19 more than MEPS and SPME techniques, respectively. In MEPS technique the best results in terms of number of extractable/identified compounds and total peak areas of volatile and semi-volatile fraction, were obtained by using C8 resin whereas DVB/CAR/PDMS was revealed the most efficient SPME coating to extract VOCs and SVOCs from Bual wine. Diethyl malate (18.8 ± 3.2%) was the main component found in wine SPELiChrolut EN extracts followed by ethyl succinate (13.5 ± 5.3%), 3-methyl-1-butanol (13.2 ± 1.7%), and 2-phenylethanol (11.2 ± 9.9%), while in SPMEDVB/CAR/PDMS technique 3-methyl-1-butanol (43.3 ± 0.6%) followed by diethyl succinate (18.9 ± 1.6%), and 2-furfural (10.4 ± 0.4%), are the major compounds. The major VOCs and SVOCs isolated by MEPSC8 were 3-methyl-1-butanol (26.8 ± 0.6%, from wine total volatile fraction), diethyl succinate (24.9 ± 0.8%), and diethyl malate (16.3 ± 0.9%). Regardless of the extraction technique, the highest extraction efficiency corresponds to esters and higher alcohols and the lowest to fatty acids. Despite some drawbacks associated with the SPE procedure such as the use of organic solvents, the time-consuming and tedious sampling procedure, it was observed that SPELiChrolut EN, revealed to be the most effective technique allowing the extraction of a higher number of compounds (78) rather than the other extraction techniques studied.

Prevalence of helicobacter pylori infection in advanced gastric carcinoma

There is substantial evidence that infection with Helicobacter pylori plays a role in the development of gastric cancer and that it is rarely found in gastric biopsy of atrophic gastritis and gastric cancer. On advanced gastric tumors, the bacteria can be lost from the stomach. Aims - To analyze the hypothesis that the prevalence of H.pylori in operated advanced gastric carcinomas and adjacent non-tumor tissues is high, comparing intestinal and diffuse tumors according to Lauren’s classifi cation. Methods - A prospective controlled study enrolled 56 patients from “Hospital Universitário”, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, Brazil, with advanced gastric cancer, treated from February 2000 to March 2003. Immediately after partial gastrectomy, the resected stomach was opened and several mucosal biopsy samples were taken from the gastric tumor and from the adjacent mucosa within 4 cm distance from the tumor margin. Tissue sections were stained with hematoxylin and eosin. Lauren‘s classifi cation for gastric cancer was used, to analyse the prevalence of H. pylori in intestinal or diffuse carcinomas assessed by the urease rapid test, IgG by ELISA and Giemsa staining. H. pylori infected patients were treated with omeprazole, clarithromycin and amoxicillin for 7 days. Follow-up endoscopy and serology were performed 6 months after treatment to determine successful eradication of H. pylori in non-tumor tissue. Thereafter, follow-up endoscopies were scheduled annually. Chi-square and MacNemar tests with 0.05 signifi cance were used. Results - Thirty-four tumors (60.7%) were intestinal-type and 22 (39.3%) diffuse type carcinomas. In adjacent non-tumor gastric mucosa, chronic gastritis were found in 53 cases (94.6%) and atrophic mucosa in 36 patients (64.3%). All the patients with atrophic mucosa were H. pylori positive. When examined by Giemsa and urease test, H. pylori positive rate in tumor tissue of intestinal type carcinomas was higher than that in diffuse carcinomas. In tumor tissues, 34 (60.7%) H. pylori-positive in gastric carcinomas were detected by Giemsa method. H. pylori was observed in 30 of 56 cases (53.5%) in tissues 4 cm adjacent to tumors. This difference was not signifi cant. Eradication of H. pylori in non-tumor tissue of gastric remnant led to a complete negativity on the 12th postoperative month. Conclusions - The data confi rmed the hypothesis of a high prevalence of H. pylori in tumor tissue of gastric advanced carcinomas and in adjacent non-tumor mucosa of operated stomachs. The presence of H. pylori was predominant in the intestinal-type carcinoma

Neurobiology and clinical implications of lucid dreaming

Several lines of evidence converge to the idea that rapid eye movement sleep (REMS) is a good model to foster our understanding of psychosis. Both REMS and psychosis course with internally generated perceptions and lack of rational judgment, which is attributed to a hyperlimbic activity along with hypofrontality. Interestingly, some individuals can become aware of dreaming during REMS, a particular experience known as lucid dreaming (LD), whose neurobiological basis is still controversial. Since the frontal lobe plays a role in self-consciousness, working memory and attention, here we hypothesize that LD is associated with increased frontal activity during REMS. A possible way to test this hypothesis is to check whether transcranial magnetic or electric stimulation of the frontal region during REMS triggers LD. We further suggest that psychosis and LD are opposite phenomena: LD as a physiological awakening while dreaming due to frontal activity, and psychosis as a pathological intrusion of dream features during wake state due to hypofrontality. We further suggest that LD research may have three main clinical implications. First, LD could be important to the study of consciousness, including its pathologies and other altered states. Second, LD could be used as a therapy for recurrent nightmares, a common symptom of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. Finally, LD may allow for motor imagery during dreaming with possible improvement of physical rehabilitation. In all, we believe that LD research may clarify multiple aspects of brain functioning in its physiological, altered and pathological states.

Rapid detection of resistance to pyrazinamide in Mycobacterium tuberculosis using the resazurin microtitre assay

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Rapid determination of desorption efficiency, and analysis of solvent mixtures for occupational exposure studies

An analytical procedure has been developed for simultaneous determination of solvent mixture vapors to enable evaluation of occupational exposure. To determine the desorption efficiency the volatile components of the solvent mixtures were generated from a glass tube filled with glass wool. This device is easy to prepare and use. These vapors were then collected in activated charcoal tubes and analyzed by capillary gas chromatography. The method was tested with a mixture of 22 solvents, including aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, esters, and ketones, oil at low concentrations. All the components were defected. When a 99: 1 mixture of carbon disulfide-dimethylformamide was used for desorption the efficiency was > 75% for most of the solvents.

Rapid and Selective UV Spectrophotometric Method for the Analysis of Ceftazidime

A new UV spectrophotometric method was developed for quantitative evaluation of ceftazidime preparations. The UV detector was set at 255 nm. Beer's law is obeyed in the concentration range of 7.0-14.0 mu g/mL. The method was found to be selective, linear, accurate, and precise in the specified ranges. Intra- and interday variability for the method were <2% relative standard deviation. Common excipients used as additives in pharmaceutical preparations do not interfere with the proposed method. This method was successfully used for quantification of ceftazidime in pure form and in pharmaceutical preparations.