Electricity load and price forecasting with influential factors in a deregulated power industry

With the emergence of smart power grid and distributed generation technologies in recent years, there is need to introduce new advanced models for forecasting. Electricity load and price forecasts are two primary factors needed in a deregulated power industry. The performances of the demand response programs are likely to be deteriorated in the absence of accurate load and price forecasting. Electricity generation companies, system operators, and consumers are highly reliant on the accuracy of the forecasting models. However, historical prices from the financial market, weekly price/load information, historical loads and day type are some of the explanatory factors that affect the accuracy of the forecasting. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model that considers different influential factors as feedback to the model is presented. This model is implemented with historical data from the ISO New England. It is observed during experiments that price forecasting is more complicated and hence less accurate than the load forecasting.

Slope stability analysis for filled slopes using finite element limit analysis method

This paper uses the finite element upper and lower bound limit analysis to assess the stability of slopes mostly found in embankment cases where frictional materials are filled on purely cohesive undrained clay. For comparison purposes, the commonly used stability assessment method, limit equilibrium method (LEM) is also employed. The final results for both methods are then presented in the form of comprehensive chart solutions for the convenience of practicing engineers during preliminary slope designs. The failure mechanism will also be discussed in this paper. Ultimately, it should be noted that finite element limit analysis method holds the upper hand as its prior assumptions are not required. Thus, the obtained failure mechanism from the slope stability analysis will be more realistic. Hence, it will provide a better understanding for the slope failure surface. Therefore, engineers should design more carefully when the LEM is applied to the slopes with frictional materials filled on purely cohesive undrained clay. © 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Psychological oil price barrier and firm returns

In this paper, we investigate the psychological barrier effect induced by the oil price on firm returns when the oil price reaches US$100 or more per barrel. We find evidence of the negative effect of the US$100 oil price barrier for: (a) the entire sample of 1559 firms listed on the American stock exchanges; (b) both foreign and domestic firms, with domestic firms significantly more affected; (c) the 10 different sizes of firms, with the smaller firms less affected compared to the larger firms; and (d) 17 sectors of firms, with firms in the utilities, mining, and administration sectors being the least affected.

A factor analytical approach to price discovery

Existing econometric approaches for studying price discovery presume that the number of markets are small, and their properties become suspect when this restriction is not met. They also require making identifying restrictions and are in many cases not suitable for statistical inference. The current paper takes these shortcomings as a starting point to develop a factor analytical approach that makes use of the cross-sectional variation of the data, yet is very user-friendly in that it does not involve any identifying restrictions or obstacles to inference.

Prediction interval estimation for electricity price and demand using support vector machines

Uncertainty is known to be a concomitant factor of almost all the real world commodities such as oil prices, stock prices, sales and demand of products. As a consequence, forecasting problems are becoming more and more challenging and ridden with uncertainty. Such uncertainties are generally quantified by statistical tools such as prediction intervals (Pis). Pis quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the targeted quantities. Pis generated by traditional neural network based approaches are limited by high computational burden and impractical assumptions about the distribution of the data. A novel technique for constructing high quality Pis using support vector machines (SVMs) is being proposed in this paper. The proposed technique directly estimates the upper and lower bounds of the PI in a short time and without any assumptions about the data distribution. The SVM parameters are tuned using particle swarm optimization technique by minimization of a modified Pi-based objective function. Electricity price and demand data of the Ontario electricity market is used to validate the performance of the proposed technique. Several case studies for different months indicate the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of high quality PI generation and shorter computational times.

Changes in use of types of tobacco products by pack sizes and price segments, prices paid and consumption following the introduction of plain packaging in Australia

Objectives: To describe changes among smokers in use of various types of tobacco products, reported prices paid and cigarette consumption following the standardisation of tobacco packaging in Australia.
Methods: National cross-sectional telephone surveys of adult smokers were conducted from April 2012 (6 months before transition to plain packaging (PP) to March 2014 (15 months afterwards). Multivariable logistics regression assessed changes in products, brands and pack types/sizes; multivariable linear regression examined changes in inflation-adjusted prices paid and reported cigarette consumption between the pre-PP and three subsequent periods – the transition phase, PP year 1 and PP post-tax (post a 12.5% tax increase in December 2013).
Results: The proposition of current smokers using roll-your-own (RYO) products fluctuated over the study period. Proportions using value brands of factory-made (FM) cigarettes increased from pre-PP (21.4%) to PP year 1 (25.5%; p=0.002) and PP post-tax (27.8%; p<0.001). Inflation-adjusted prices paid increased in the PP year 1 and PP post-tax phases; the largest increases were among premium FM brands, the smallest among value brands. Consumption did not change in PP year 1 among daily, regular or current smokers declined significantly in PP post-tax (mean=14.0, SE=0.33) compared to PP year 1 (mean=14.8, SE=0.17; p=0.037).
Conclusions: Introduction of PP was associated with an increase in use of value brands, likely due to increased numbers available and smaller increases in prices for value relative to premium brands. Reported consumption declined following the December 2013 tax increase.

Influence of price discounts and skill-building strategies on purchase and consumption of healthy food and beverages: outcomes of the Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Fiscal strategies are increasingly considered upstream nutrition promotion measures. However, few trials have investigated the effectiveness or cost effectiveness of pricing manipulations on diet in real-world settings. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effects on fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchasing and consumption of a 20% price-reduction intervention, a tailored skills-based behavior-change intervention, and a combined intervention compared with a control condition. DESIGN: The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was a randomized controlled trial conducted over 3 mo [baseline (time 1) to postintervention (time 2) with a 6-mo follow-up (time 3)]. Female primary household shoppers in Melbourne, Australia, were randomly assigned to a 1) skill-building (n = 160), 2) price-reduction (n = 161), 3) combined skill-building and price-reduction (n = 160), or 4) control (n = 161) group. Supermarket transaction data and surveys were used to measure the following study outcomes: fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchases and self-reported fruit and vegetable consumption at each time point. RESULTS: At 3 mo (time 2), price reduction-alone participants purchased more total vegetables and frozen vegetables than did controls. Price reduction-alone and price reduction-plus-skill-building participants purchased more fruit than did controls. Relative to controls, in the price-reduction group, total vegetable consumption increased by 233 g/wk (3.1 servings or 15% more than at baseline), and fruit purchases increased by 364 g/wk (2.4 servings; 35% more than at baseline). Increases were not maintained 6 mo postintervention (time 3). Price reduction-alone participants showed a tendency for a slight increase in fruit consumption at time 2 (P = 0.09) that was maintained at time 3 (P = 0.014). No intervention improved purchases of bottled water or low-calorie beverages. CONCLUSIONS: A 20% price reduction in fruit and vegetables resulted in increased purchasing per household of 35% for fruit and 15% for vegetables over the price-reduction period. These findings show that price modifications can directly increase produce purchases. The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was registered at Current Controlled Trials Registration as ISRCTN39432901.

Lying about the price? Ultimatum bargaining with messages and imperfectly observed offers

We introduce the taxicab game, related to the ultimatum game and Gehrig et al.'s (2007) yes/no game. The proposer makes an offer, and simultaneously sends a cheap talk message indicating (possibly falsely) the amount of the offer. The responder observes the message with certainty and the offer with probability p before accepting or rejecting the offer. We investigate versions with p=. 0 and p=. 0.5 along with the ultimatum game as a baseline. Intuition and a model comprising both standard economic agents and others who dislike inequity, lies and lying provide clear predictions that our experimental results support. As the likelihood increases of offers being seen, the offers themselves increase, messages over-state them less, and responders are more likely to accept (even when the offer is unseen). Also, responders are more likely to accept after truthful messages than after lies or when no message is sent.

Slope stability charts for two-layered purely cohesive soils based on finite-element limit analysis methods

Stability charts for soil slopes, first produced in the first half of the twentieth century, continue to be used extensively as design tools, and draw the attention of many investigators. This paper uses finite-element upper and lower bound limit analysis to assess the short-term stability of slopes in which the slopematerial and subgrade foundation material have two distinctly different undrained strengths. The stability charts are proposed, and the exact theoretical solutions are bracketed to within 4.2% or better. In addition, results from the limit-equilibrium method (LEM) have been used for comparison. Differences of up to 20% were found between the numerical limit analysis and LEM solutions. It also shown that the LEM sometimes leads to errors, although it is widely used in practice for slope stability assessments.

Stock price comovement: Evidence from India

We examine the extent to which stock prices comove in an emerging economy, India. We first document that stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) comove. Further, we find that synchronicity is positively associated with growth and earnings volatility and negatively associated with business group affiliation and leverage.

Equity market price interactions between China and the other markets within the Chinese states equity markets

This study examines the cointegrating and long-term causal relationships of equity market prices in equity markets of Chinese states namely, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. I cover the period between October 5, 1992 and March 20, 2006, taking into account both the Asian financial crisis and the opening-up of China’s equity markets in recent years. First, I analysis the cointegration by utilizing Johansen’s (1988) cointegration tests. I find that a long-term equilibrium relationship measured by cointegration has been established among Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Taiwanese markets and, to a lesser degree, between these markets and the Singapore market since 1998. Secondly, this study examines causality by exploring the bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto non-causality tests. I find that there is strong evidence of a bi-directional causality between Shanghai and Shenzhen markets after 1998. Furthermore, I also find that there are more causal linkages between the Chinese states equity markets: two mainland Chinese markets, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore became more dependent on each other. The robustness of the above findings is confirmed by the use of a bootstrap test employed to test the validity of my results.