908 resultados para predictive analytics


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The Ordos Plateau in China is covered with up to 300,000 ha of peashrub (Caragana) which is the dominant natural vegetation and ideal for fodder production. To exploit peashrub fodder, it is crucially important to optimize the culture conditions, especially culture substrate to produce pectinase complex. In this study, a new prescription process was developed. The process, based on a uniform experimental design, first optimizes the solid substrate and second, after incubation, applies two different temperature treatments (30 degrees C for the first 30 h and 23 degrees C for the second 42 h) in the fermentation process. A multivariate regression analysis is applied to a number of independent variables (water, wheat bran, rice dextrose, ammonium sulfate, and Tween 80) to develop a predictive model of pectinase activity. A second-degree polynomial model is developed which accounts for an excellent proportion of the explained variation (R-2 = 97.7%). Using unconstrained mathematical programming, an optimized substrate prescription for pectinase production is subsequently developed. The mathematical analysis revealed that the optimal formula for pectinase production from Aspergillus niger by solid fermentation under the conditions of natural aeration, natural substrate pH (about 6.5), and environmental humidity of 60% is rice dextrose 8%, wheat bran 24%, ammonium sulfate ((NH4)(2)SO4) 6%, and water 61%. Tween 80 was found to have a negative effect on the production of pectinase in solid substrate. With this substrate prescription, pectinase produced by solid fermentation of A. niger reached 36.3IU/(gDM). Goats fed on the pectinase complex obtain an incremental increase of 0.47 kg day(-1) during the initial 25 days of feeding, which is a very promising new feeding prospect for the local peashrub. It is concluded that the new formula may be very useful for the sustainable development of and and semiarid pastures such as those of the Ordos Plateau. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Background and purpose: To evaluate biochemical control and treatment related toxicity of patients with localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate treated with high dose-rate brachytherapy (HDRB) combined with conventional 2D or 3D-conformal external beam irradiation (EBI). Material and methods: Four-hundred and three patients treated between December 2000 and March 2004. HDRB was delivered with three fractions of 5.5-7 Gy with a single implant, followed by 45 Gy delivered with 2D or 3D conformal EBI. Results: The median follow-up was 48.4 months. Biochemical failure (BF) occurred in 9.6% according to both ASTRO and Phoenix consensus criteria. Mean time to relapse was 13 and 26 months, respectively. The 5-year BF free survival using the ASTRO criteria was 94.3%, 86.9% and 86.6% for the low, intermediate and high risk groups, respectively; using Phoenix criteria, 92.4%, 88.0% and 85.3%, respectively. The only predictive factor of BF in the multivariate analysis by both ASTRO and Phoenix criteria was the presence of prostate nodules detected by digital palpation, and patients younger than 60 years presented a higher chance of failure using Phoenix criteria only. Conclusions: Treatment scheme is feasible and safe with good efficacy. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd All rights reserved. Radiotherapy and Oncology 98 (2011) 169-174

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Aortic valve calcium (AVC) can be quantified on the same computed tomographic scan as coronary artery calcium (CAC). Although CAC is an established predictor of cardiovascular events, limited evidence is available for an independent predictive value for AVC. We studied a cohort of 8,401 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53 10 years, 69% men), who were free of known coronary heart disease and were undergoing electron beam computed tomography for assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis. The patients were followed for a median of 5 years (range 1 to 7) for the occurrence of mortality from any cause. Multivariate Cox regression models were developed to predict all-cause mortality according to the presence of AVC. A total of 517 patients (6%) had AVC on electron beam computed tomography. During follow-up, 124 patients died (1.5%), for an overall survival rate of 96.1% and 98.7% for those with and without AVC, respectively (hazard ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 2.09 to 5.49). After adjustment for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and a family history of premature coronary heart disease, AVC remained a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.98). Likelihood ratio chi-square statistics demonstrated that the addition of AVC contributed significantly to the prediction of mortality in a model adjusted for traditional risk factors (chi-square = 5.03, p = 0.03) as well as traditional risk factors plus the presence of CAC (chi-square = 3.58, p = 0.05). In conclusion, AVC was associated with increased all-cause mortality, independent of the traditional risk factors and the presence of CAC. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Inc. (Am J Cardiol 2010;106:1787-1791)

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Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.

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Recently, stress myocardial computed tomographic perfusion (CTP) was shown to detect myocardial ischemia. Our main objective was to evaluate the feasibility of dipyridamole stress CTP and compare it to single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) to detect significant coronary stenosis using invasive conventional coronary angiography (CCA; stenosis >70%) as the reference method. Thirty-six patients (62 +/- 8 years old, 20 men) with previous positive results with SPECT (<2 months) as the primary inclusion criterion and suspected coronary artery disease underwent a customized multidetector-row CT protocol with myocardial perfusion evaluation at rest and during stress and coronary CT angiography (CTA). Multidetector-row computed tomography was performed in a 64-slice scanner with dipyridamole stress perfusion acquisition before a second perfusion/CT angiographic acquisition at rest. Independent blinded observers performed analysis of images from CTP, CTA, and CCA. All 36 patients completed the CT protocol with no adverse events (mean radiation dose 14.7 +/- 3.0 mSv) and with interpretable scans. CTP results were positive in 27 of 36 patients (75%). From the 9 (25%) disagreements, 6 patients had normal coronary arteries and 2 had no significant stenosis (8 false-positive results with SPECT, 22%). The remaining patient had an occluded artery with collateral flow confirmed by conventional coronary angiogram. Good agreement was demonstrated between CTP and SPECT on a per-patient analysis (kappa 0.53). In 26 patients using CCA as reference, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 88.0%, 79.3%, 66.7%, and 93.3% for CTP and 68.8, 76.1%, 66.7%, and 77.8%, for SPECT, respectively (p = NS). In conclusion, dipyridamole CT myocardial perfusion at rest and during stress is feasible and results are similar to single-photon emission CT scintigraphy. The anatomical-perfusion information provided by this combined CT protocol may allow identification of false-positive results by SPECT. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2010;106:310-315)

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Introduction: Lower urinary tract symptoms ( LUTS) are common in men over 50 years of age due to prostate enlargement. Diabetes mellitus is also more prevalent in this group. LUTS may result from bladder outlet obstruction ( BOO) secondary to prostate enlargement or bladder dysfunction secondary to diabetes or even from a combination of both. Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of BOO and other urodynamic abnormalities in diabetic patients with LUTS and enlarged prostate. A secondary objective was to assess the predictive value of non-invasive tests for BOO diagnosis in this group of patients. Patients and Methods: 50 consecutive diabetic patients with enlarged prostate and LUTS were evaluated by the International Prostate Symptom Score ( IPSS), ultra sonography and urodynamics. BOO diagnosis was based on pressure/ flow measurements according to the International Continence Society`s standards. Results: Of the 50 patients in the study, 23 ( 46%) had BOO. There was no correlation between the IPSS, uroflowmetry, post- voiding residual urine or prostate volume and the presence of BOO ( p > 0.05). Conclusions: There is a relatively low prevalence of BOO in diabetic patients with prostate enlargement and LUTS. Non- invasive tests did not allow the identification of these subjects. Only urodynamic evaluation is able to determine symptom etiology. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

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To evaluate the usefulness of intraoral ultrasonography (IOUS) as a tool for predicting neck metastasis. Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the tongue is aggressive and has a great propensity to metastasize to cervical lymph nodes. SCC of the oral cavity has a worse prognosis when associated with metastatic cervical nodes. Therefore, the metastatic potential of tongue carcinoma should be graded preoperatively to help determine the requirement for neck dissection. Nineteen patients (11 men, 8 women) between 36 and 79 years of age (mean age 60) with T1 to T4a TNM-stage tongue carcinomas were evaluated preoperatively with IOUS. Clinical and pathological TNM classifications were performed. The average tumor thicknesses measured using histological sections were significantly (p < 0.01) lower than those with IOUS (1.3 vs. 1.6 cm, respectively). A significant correlation was observed between the tumor thickness measured using ultrasonography and that measured using histological sections (pathology). Based on this greater accuracy, the cutoff point of tumor thickness based on IOUS evaluation for predicting neck metastasis was determined to be 1.8 cm. Some factors may influence neck metastasis. A knowledge of these would help to avoid unnecessary surgical intervention for N0 patients. The results of this study indicates that there is a significant correlation between neck metastasis and tumor thickness. Intraoral ultrasonography is useful tool for identifying tongue tumors and measuring their thickness, with the thickness measured by IOUS showing a very good correlation with histological measurements. Moreover, IOUS provides prognostic information prior to surgical treatment since tumor thickness can predict the chance of recognizing metastatic cervical nodes.

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Background. A sample of 1089 Australian adults was selected for the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study, a 2-year, four-phase investigation of the psychosocial effects of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake. Of these, 845 (78%) completed a survey 6 months post-disaster as well as one or more of the three follow-up surveys. Methods. The phase I survey was used to construct dimensional indices of self-reported exposure to threat the disruption and also to classify subjects by their membership of five 'at risk' groups (the injured; the displaced; owners of damaged small businesses; helpers in threat and non-threat situations). Psychological morbidity was assessed at each phase using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Psychological morbidity declined over time but tended to stabilize at about 12 months post-disaster for general morbidity (GHQ-12) and at about 18 months for trauma-related (IES) morbidity. Initial exposure to threat and/or disruption were significant predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the study and had superior predictive power to membership of the targeted 'at risk' groups. The degree of ongoing disruption and other life events since the earthquake were also significant predictors of morbidity. The injured reported the highest levels of distress, but there was a relative absence of morbidity among the helpers. Conclusions. Future disaster research should carefully assess the threat and disruption experiences of the survivors at the time of the event and monitor ongoing disruptions in the aftermath in order to target interventions more effectively.

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Aims: We assessed the lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) of patients with Parkinson`s disease (PD) and their association with different clinical parameters. Methods: We prospectively evaluated 110 patients (84 men), with a mean age of 61.8 +/- 9.6 years. Mean duration of the disease was 12.3 +/- 7.2 years. Neurological impairment was assessed by the Hoehn-Yahr and the Unified Parkinson Disease Rating scales. LUTS were assessed by the International Continence Society questionnaire. We evaluated the impact of age, PD duration, neurological impairment, gender, and use of anti-Parkinsonian drugs on the voiding function. Results: On multivariate analysis, voiding dysfunction increased with the neurological impairment, but not with patient`s age or disease duration. Quality of life (QOL) was affected by the severity of LUTS, and the symptoms with the worst impact were frequency and nocturia. Sixty-three (57.2%) patients were symptomatic. They did not differ with the asymptomatic as to age and disease duration, but had more severe neurological impairment. No impact on LUTS was associated with the use of levodopa, anticholinergics, and dopamine receptor agonists. Men and women were similarly affected by urinary symptoms. Conclusions: The severity of the neurological disease is the only predictive factor for the occurrence of voiding dysfunction, which affects men and women alike. Neztrourol. Urodynam. 28.510-515, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Objective: To investigate the possible role of chromatin texture parameters, nuclear morphology, DNA ploidy and clinical functional status in discriminating benign from malignant adrenocortical tumors (ACT). Patients and Methods: Forty-eight cases of clinically benign (n=40) and clinically malignant (n=8) ACT with a minimum of 5-years` follow-up were evaluated for chromatin texture parameters (run length, standard deviation, configurable run length, valley, slope, peak and other 21 Markovian features that describe the distribution of the chromatin in the nucleus), nuclear morphology (nuclear area, nuclear perimeter, nuclear maximum and minumum diameter, nuclear shape), and DNA ploidy. Nuclear parameters were evaluated in Feulgen-stained 5 mu m paraffin-sections analyzed using a CAS 200 image analyzer. Results: Since ACTs present different biological features in children and adults, patients were divided into two groups: children (<= 15 years) and adults (>15 years). In the group of children DNA ploidy presented a marginal significance (p=0.05) in discriminating ACTs. None of the parameters discriminated between malignant and benign ACT in the adult group. Conclusion: ACTs are uncommon and definitive predictive criteria for malignancy remain uncertain, particularly in children. Our data point to DNA content evaluated by image analysis as a new candidate tool for this challenging task. Texture image analysis did not help to differentiate malignant from benign adrenal cortical tumors in children and adults.

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We reviewed the data of 307 patients treated with autologous bone marrow transplantation with the aim to identify factors associated with poor hematopoietic stern cell (HSC) mobilization after administration of cyclophosphamide and granulocyte-colony stimulating factor. Success in mobilization was defined when >= 2.0 x 10(6) CD34+ cells/kg weight could be collected with <= 3 leukapheresis procedures. Success was observed in 260 patients (84.7%) and nonsuccess in 47 patients (15.3%). According to the stepwise regression model: diagnosis, chemotherapy load, treatment with mitoxantrone and platelet count before mobilization were found to be independent predictive factors for HSC mobilization. These results could help in the previous recognition of patients at risk for non response to mobilization and allow to plan an alternative protocol for this group of patients. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Genetic population structure in the catadromous Australian bass Macquaria novemaculeata was investigated using samples from four locations spanning 600 km along the eastern Australian coastline. Both allozymes and mtDNA control region sequences were examined. Population subdivision estimates based on allozymes revealed low levels of population structuring (G(st)=0.043, P<0.05). However, mtDNA indicated moderate levels of geographic population structure (G(st)=0.146, P<0.01). Phylogenetic analysis of mtDNA control region sequences (mean sequence divergence 1.9%) indicated little phylogeographic structuring. Results suggested that genotypic variation within each river population, while bring affected primarily by genetic drift, was also prevented from more significant divergence by homogenizing levels of gene flow-synonymous with a one-dimensional stepping-stone model of population structure. The catadromous life history of Macquaria novemaculeata was considered to br influential on the pattern of population structure displayed. Results were compared to the few population genetic studies involving catadromous fishes, indicating that catadromy alone is unlikely to be a good predictor of population structure. A more comprehensive suite of biological characteristics than simple life-history traits must be considered fully to allow reliable predictive models of population structure to be formulated. (C) 1997 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

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Background: Real time myocardial contrast echocardiography (RTMCE) is an emerging imaging modality for assessing myocardial perfusion that allows for noninvasive quantification of regional myocardial blood flow (MBF). Aim: We sought to assess the value of qualitative analysis of myocardial perfusion and quantitative assessment of myocardial blood flow (MBF) by RTMCE for predicting regional function recovery in patients with ischemic heart disease who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods: Twenty-four patients with coronary disease and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction < 45%) underwent RTMCE before and 3 months after CABG. RTMCE was performed using continuous intravenous infusion of commercially available contrast agent with low mechanical index power modulation imaging. Viability was defined by qualitative assessment of myocardial perfusion as homogenous opacification at rest in >= 2 segments of anterior or >= 1 segment of posterior territory. Viability by quantitative assessment of MBF was determined by receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis. Results: Regional function recovery was observed in 74% of territories considered viable by qualitative analysis of myocardial perfusion and 40% of nonviable (P = 0.03). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of qualitative RTMCE for detecting regional function recovery were 74%, 60%, 77%, and 56%, respectively. Cutoff value of MBF for predicting regional function recovery was 1.76 (AUC = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.62-0.92). MBF obtained by RTMCE had sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 50%, positive predictive value of 75%, and negative predictive value of 78%. Conclusion: Qualitative and quantitative RTMCE provide good accuracy for predicting regional function recovery after CABG. Determination of MBF increases the sensitivity for detecting hibernating myocardium. (Echocardiography 2011;28:342-349).

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BACKGROUND: Alcoholic beverages may have protective cardiovascular effects but are known to increase the plasma levels of triglycerides (TG). Both TG and the ratio of TO to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-cholesterol) are associated with increased cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVES: To determine the predictive factors for variations in plasma levels of TO and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio in patients after they had consumed red wine for 14 days. METHODS: Forty-two subjects (64% men, 46 +/- 9 years, baseline body mass index [BMI] 25.13 +/- 2.76 kg/m(2)) were given red wine (12% or 12.2% alc/vol, 250 mL/day with meals). Plasma concentration of lipids and glucose were measured before and after red wine consumption. Blood was collected after 12 hours of fast and alcohol abstention. RESULTS: Red wine increased plasma levels of TO from 105 +/- 42 mg/dL to 120 +/- 56 mg/dL (P = .001) and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio from 2.16 +/- 1.10 to 2.50 +/- 1.66 (P = .014). In a multivariate linear regression model that included age, baseline BMI, blood pressure, lipids, and glucose, only BMI was independently predictive of the variation in plasma TO after red wine (beta coefficient 0.592, P < .001). BMI also predicted the variation in TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio (beta coefficient 0.505, P = .001, adjusted model). When individuals were divided into three categories, according to their BMI, the average percentage variation in TG after red wine was -4%, 17%, and 33% in the lower (19.60-24.45 kg/m(2)), intermediate, and greater (26.30-30.44 kg/m(2)) tertiles, respectively (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with higher BMI, although nonobese, might be at greater risk for elevation in plasma TO levels and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio after short-term red wine consumption. (C) 2011 National Lipid Association. All rights reserved.

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Background We validated a strategy for diagnosis of coronary artery disease ( CAD) and prediction of cardiac events in high-risk renal transplant candidates ( at least one of the following: age >= 50 years, diabetes, cardiovascular disease). Methods A diagnosis and risk assessment strategy was used in 228 renal transplant candidates to validate an algorithm. Patients underwent dipyridamole myocardial stress testing and coronary angiography and were followed up until death, renal transplantation, or cardiac events. Results The prevalence of CAD was 47%. Stress testing did not detect significant CAD in 1/3 of patients. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the stress test for detecting CAD were 70, 74, 69, and 71%, respectively. CAD, defined by angiography, was associated with increased probability of cardiac events [log-rank: 0.001; hazard ratio: 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-2.92]. Diabetes (P=0.03; hazard ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.06-2.45) and angiographically defined CAD (P=0.03; hazard ratio: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.08-2.78) were the independent predictors of events. Conclusion The results validate our observations in a smaller number of high-risk transplant candidates and indicate that stress testing is not appropriate for the diagnosis of CAD or prediction of cardiac events in this group of patients. Coronary angiography was correlated with events but, because less than 50% of patients had significant disease, it seems premature to recommend the test to all high-risk renal transplant candidates. The results suggest that angiography is necessary in many high-risk renal transplant candidates and that better noninvasive methods are still lacking to identify with precision patients who will benefit from invasive procedures. Coron Artery Dis 21: 164-167 (C) 2010 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.