905 resultados para model selection in binary regression
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The paper discusses the relevant theoretical considerations and specifies a model in an attempt to quantify those variables, the changes of which affect the internal demand for fish in Nigeria. Regression analyses carried out show that a generally rising trend in per capita income will increase the demand for fish, other things being equal. It is further revealed that even as the price of fish goes on increasing, consumers' demand for fish also tend to rise. The paper concludes by emphasizing the need for a fish consumption survey in the country's fish demand
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The paper discusses the relevant theoretical considerations and specifies a model in an attempt to quantify those variables, the changes of which affect the internal demand for fish in Nigeria. Regression analyses carried out show that a generally rising trend in per capita income will increase the demand for fish, other things being equal. It is further revealed that even as the price of fish goes on increasing, consumers' demand for fish also tend to rise. The paper concludes by emphasizing the need for a fish consumption survey in the country's fish demand
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The paper examines the feasibility of a small-scale integrated fish and poultry farming project based on an existing experimental model currently in operation at the Kainji Lake Research Institute, New Bussa, Nigeria. Financial analysis reveals a viable investment based on the output from a 2 ha fish pond or reservoir
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The aim of this study is to develop a reference model for intervention in the language processes applied to the transformation of language normalisation within organisations of a socio-economic nature. It is based on the case study of an experience carried out over10 years within a trades’ union confederation, and has pursued a strategy of a basically qualitative research carried out in three stages: 1) undertaking field work through application of action-research methodology, 2) reconstructing experiences following processes of systematisation and conceptualisation of the systematised data, applying methodologies for the Systematisation of Experiences and Grounded Theory, and 3) formulating a model for intervention, applying the Systems Approach methodology. Finally, we identified nine key ideas that make up the conceptual framework for the ENEKuS reference model, which is structured in nine ‘action points', each having an operating sub-model applicable in practice.
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The works presented in this thesis explore a variety of extensions of the standard model of particle physics which are motivated by baryon number (B) and lepton number (L), or some combination thereof. In the standard model, both baryon number and lepton number are accidental global symmetries violated only by non-perturbative weak effects, though the combination B-L is exactly conserved. Although there is currently no evidence for considering these symmetries as fundamental, there are strong phenomenological bounds restricting the existence of new physics violating B or L. In particular, there are strict limits on the lifetime of the proton whose decay would violate baryon number by one unit and lepton number by an odd number of units.
The first paper included in this thesis explores some of the simplest possible extensions of the standard model in which baryon number is violated, but the proton does not decay as a result. The second paper extends this analysis to explore models in which baryon number is conserved, but lepton flavor violation is present. Special attention is given to the processes of μ to e conversion and μ → eγ which are bound by existing experimental limits and relevant to future experiments.
The final two papers explore extensions of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) in which both baryon number and lepton number, or the combination B-L, are elevated to the status of being spontaneously broken local symmetries. These models have a rich phenomenology including new collider signatures, stable dark matter candidates, and alternatives to the discrete R-parity symmetry usually built into the MSSM in order to protect against baryon and lepton number violating processes.
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In the measurement of the Higgs Boson decaying into two photons the parametrization of an appropriate background model is essential for fitting the Higgs signal mass peak over a continuous background. This diphoton background modeling is crucial in the statistical process of calculating exclusion limits and the significance of observations in comparison to a background-only hypothesis. It is therefore ideal to obtain knowledge of the physical shape for the background mass distribution as the use of an improper function can lead to biases in the observed limits. Using an Information-Theoretic (I-T) approach for valid inference we apply Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as a measure of the separation for a fitting model from the data. We then implement a multi-model inference ranking method to build a fit-model that closest represents the Standard Model background in 2013 diphoton data recorded by the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Potential applications and extensions of this model-selection technique are discussed with reference to CMS detector performance measurements as well as in potential physics analyses at future detectors.
A model for energy and morphology of crystalline grain boundaries with arbitrary geometric character
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It has been well-established that interfaces in crystalline materials are key players in the mechanics of a variety of mesoscopic processes such as solidification, recrystallization, grain boundary migration, and severe plastic deformation. In particular, interfaces with complex morphologies have been observed to play a crucial role in many micromechanical phenomena such as grain boundary migration, stability, and twinning. Interfaces are a unique type of material defect in that they demonstrate a breadth of behavior and characteristics eluding simplified descriptions. Indeed, modeling the complex and diverse behavior of interfaces is still an active area of research, and to the author's knowledge there are as yet no predictive models for the energy and morphology of interfaces with arbitrary character. The aim of this thesis is to develop a novel model for interface energy and morphology that i) provides accurate results (especially regarding "energy cusp" locations) for interfaces with arbitrary character, ii) depends on a small set of material parameters, and iii) is fast enough to incorporate into large scale simulations.
In the first half of the work, a model for planar, immiscible grain boundary is formulated. By building on the assumption that anisotropic grain boundary energetics are dominated by geometry and crystallography, a construction on lattice density functions (referred to as "covariance") is introduced that provides a geometric measure of the order of an interface. Covariance forms the basis for a fully general model of the energy of a planar interface, and it is demonstrated by comparison with a wide selection of molecular dynamics energy data for FCC and BCC tilt and twist boundaries that the model accurately reproduces the energy landscape using only three material parameters. It is observed that the planar constraint on the model is, in some cases, over-restrictive; this motivates an extension of the model.
In the second half of the work, the theory of faceting in interfaces is developed and applied to the planar interface model for grain boundaries. Building on previous work in mathematics and materials science, an algorithm is formulated that returns the minimal possible energy attainable by relaxation and the corresponding relaxed morphology for a given planar energy model. It is shown that the relaxation significantly improves the energy results of the planar covariance model for FCC and BCC tilt and twist boundaries. The ability of the model to accurately predict faceting patterns is demonstrated by comparison to molecular dynamics energy data and experimental morphological observation for asymmetric tilt grain boundaries. It is also demonstrated that by varying the temperature in the planar covariance model, it is possible to reproduce a priori the experimentally observed effects of temperature on facet formation.
Finally, the range and scope of the covariance and relaxation models, having been demonstrated by means of extensive MD and experimental comparison, future applications and implementations of the model are explored.
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Documentos de Trabajo
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Os pacientes agressivos e/ou agitados correspondem a 10% de todas as internações em emergências psiquiátricas. Dependendo do grau de agitação, esses pacientes representam um risco para a integridade física, tanto para os profissionais que ali estão como para si mesmos. Dentre as alternativas para lidar com esses casos está a contenção física. Ainda que amplamente utilizada, seu uso é controverso e proibido em alguns países. No Brasil inexistem protocolos orientando o seu uso. O objetivo deste estudo foi conhecer a freqüência e os fatores associados a esta prática através de uma revisão sistemática e de um estudo em emergências psiquiátricas do município do Rio de Janeiro. A revisão identificou apenas quatro estudos, sendo três nos EUA e um na Índia. A freqüência de contenção em pacientes agitados e/ou agressivos nos serviços de emergência psiquiátrica variou de 14% até 59%. Os desenhos adotados, assim como as análises estatísticas, mostraram fragilidades para a investigação dos fatores explicativos para o uso de contenção física. O estudo nas emergências psiquiátricas do Rio de Janeiro lançou mão de informações sobre o uso de contenção física entre 298 pacientes participantes de um ensaio clínico comparando dois medicamentos para lidar com quadros de agitação psicomotora e comportamento agressivo nesses serviços. As variáveis investigadas foram aquelas coletadas antes da entrada do paciente no ensaio clínico. Portanto, variáveis que antecederam a decisão do médico conter o paciente. A análise dos dados fez uso do método Bayesiano. As prioris dos parâmetros utilizadas no modelo de regressão binária foram obtidas de um outro ensaio clínico, conduzido em uma das três emergências envolvidas no presente estudo. A freqüência no emprego da contenção física foi 24,5%, sem diferença entre os três hospitais. O estudo mostrou ainda que pacientes mais jovens, com quadros mais intensos, com suspeita diagnóstica de entrada de abuso de substâncias e que foram atendidos na parte da manhã apresentaram maior chance de serem fisicamente contidos. O presente trabalho aponta para a necessidade de conduzir estudos especificamente desenhados para avaliar a freqüência e os fatores associados com o uso de contenção física, os quais deverão subsidiar o desenvolvimento de protocolos sobre o uso desta prática em nosso meio.
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Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980-2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001-2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.