Hidden Effects of Chronic Tuberculosis in African Buffalo

Infectious diseases can bring about population declines and local host extinctions, contributing significantly to the global biodiversity crisis. Nonetheless, studies measuring population-level effects of pathogens in wild host populations are rare, and taxonomically biased toward avian hosts and macroparasitic infections. We investigated the effects of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by the bacterial pathogen Mycobacterium bovis, on African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) at Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa. We tested 1180 buffalo for bTB infection between May 2000 and November 2001. Most infections were mild, confirming the chronic nature of the disease in buffalo. However, our data indicate that bTB affects both adult survival and fecundity. Using an age-structured population model, we demonstrate that the pathogen can reduce population growth rate drastically; yet its effects appear difficult to detect at the population level: bTB causes no conspicuous mass mortalities or fast population declines, nor does it alter host-population age structure significantly. Our models suggest that this syndrome—low detectability coupled with severe impacts on population growth rate and, therefore, resilience—may be characteristic of chronic diseases in large mammals.

Contributions of demography and dispersal parameters to the spatial spread of a stage-structured insect invasion

Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.

Urothelial neoplasms of the urinary bladder occurring in young adult and pediatric patients: a comprehensive review of literature with implications for patient management

Bladder urothelial carcinoma is typically a disease of older individuals and rarely occurs below the age of 40 years. There is debate and uncertainty in the literature regarding the clinicopathologic characteristics of bladder urothelial neoplasms in younger patients compared with older patients, although no consistent age criteria have been used to define "younger" age group categories. Use of the World Health Organization 2004/International Society of Urological Pathology 1998 grading nomenclature and recent molecular studies highlight certain unique features of bladder urothelial neoplasms in young patients, particularly in patients below 20 years of age. In this meta-analysis and review, the clinical, pathologic, and molecular features and risk factors of bladder urothelial neoplasms in patients 40 years or less are presented and analyzed according to decades of presentation. Similar to older patients, bladder urothelial neoplasms in patients 40 years or younger occur more common in male patients, present mainly with gross painless hematuria, and are more commonly located at bladder trigone/ureteral orifices, but in contrast have a greater chance for unifocality. Delay in diagnosis of bladder urothelial neoplasms seems not to be uncommon in younger patients probably because of its relative rarity and the predominance of benign causes of hematuria in this age group causing hesitancy for an aggressive work-up. Most tumors in patients younger than 40 years were low grade. The incidence of low-grade tumors was the lowest in the first 2 decades of life, with incremental increase of the percentage of high-grade tumors with increasing age decades. Classification according to the World Health Organization 2004/International Society of Urological Pathology grading system identified papillary urothelial neoplasms of low malignant potential to be relatively frequent among bladder tumors of young patients particularly in the teenage years. Similar to grade, there was marked predominance of low stage tumors in the first 2 decades of life with gradual inclusion of few higher stage and metastatic tumors in the 2 older decades. Bladder urothelial neoplasms occurring in patients <20 years of age lack or have a much lower incidence of aberrations in chromosome 9, FGFR3, p53, and microsatellite instability and have fewer epigenetic alterations. Tumor recurrence and deaths were infrequent in the first 2 decades and increased gradually in each successive decade, likely influenced by the increased proportion of higher grade and higher stage tumors. Our review of the literature shows that urothelial neoplasms of the bladder occurring in young patients exhibit unique pathologic and molecular features that translate to its more indolent behavior; this distinction is most pronounced in patients <20 years. Our overall inferences have potential implications for choosing appropriate noninvasive diagnostic and surveillance modalities, whenever feasible, and for selecting suitable treatment strategies that factor in quality of life issues vital to younger patients.

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC individuals (Pra score >or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.

Sudden cardiac death in patients with silent myocardial ischemia after myocardial infarction (from the Swiss Interventional Study on Silent Ischemia Type II [SWISSI II])

The occurrence of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with silent ischemia after myocardial infarction (MI) and the factors facilitating SCD are unknown. This study aimed to determine the factors facilitating SCD in patients with silent ischemia after MI. In the Swiss Interventional Study on Silent Ischemia Type II (SWISSI II), 201 patients with silent ischemia after MI were randomized to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or medical management. The main end point of the present analysis was SCD. Multivariable regression models were used to detect potential associations between baseline or follow-up variables and SCD. During a mean follow-up of 10.3 +/- 2.6 years, 12 SCDs occurred, corresponding to an average annual event rate of 0.6%. On multivariate regression analysis, the decline in the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) during follow-up was the only independent predictor of SCD (p = 0.011), other than age; however, the baseline LVEF was not. The decline in LVEF was greater in patients receiving medical management than in those who had received PCI (p <0.001), as well as in patients with residual myocardial ischemia or recurrent MI compared with patients without these findings (p = 0.038 and p <0.001, respectively). Compared with medical management, PCI reduced the rate of residual myocardial ischemia (p <0.001) and recurrent MI (p = 0.001) during follow-up. In conclusion, patients with silent ischemia after MI are at a substantial risk of SCD. The prevention of residual myocardial ischemia and recurrent MI using PCI resulted in better long-term LVEF and a reduced SCD incidence.

Dynamic SLA management with forecasting using multi-objective optimization

Cost-efficient operation while satisfying performance and availability guarantees in Service Level Agreements (SLAs) is a challenge for Cloud Computing, as these are potentially conflicting objectives. We present a framework for SLA management based on multi-objective optimization. The framework features a forecasting model for determining the best virtual machine-to-host allocation given the need to minimize SLA violations, energy consumption and resource wasting. A comprehensive SLA management solution is proposed that uses event processing for monitoring and enables dynamic provisioning of virtual machines onto the physical infrastructure. We validated our implementation against serveral standard heuristics and were able to show that our approach is significantly better.

Major challenges in clinical management of TB/HIV co-infected patients in Eastern Europe compared with Western Europe and Latin America.

INTRODUCTION Rates of both TB/HIV co-infection and multi-drug-resistant (MDR) TB are increasing in Eastern Europe (EE). Data on the clinical management of TB/HIV co-infected patients are scarce. Our aim was to study the clinical characteristics of TB/HIV patients in Europe and Latin America (LA) at TB diagnosis, identify factors associated with MDR-TB and assess the activity of initial TB treatment regimens given the results of drug-susceptibility tests (DST). MATERIAL AND METHODS We enrolled 1413 TB/HIV patients from 62 clinics in 19 countries in EE, Western Europe (WE), Southern Europe (SE) and LA from January 2011 to December 2013. Among patients who completed DST within the first month of TB therapy, we linked initial TB treatment regimens to the DST results and calculated the distribution of patients receiving 0, 1, 2, 3 and ≥4 active drugs in each region. Risk factors for MDR-TB were identified in logistic regression models. RESULTS Significant differences were observed between EE (n=844), WE (n=152), SE (n=164) and LA (n=253) for use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) at TB diagnosis (17%, 40%, 44% and 35%, p<0.0001), a definite TB diagnosis (culture and/or PCR positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis; 47%, 71%, 72% and 40%, p<0.0001) and MDR-TB prevalence (34%, 3%, 3% and 11%, p <0.0001 among those with DST results). The history of injecting drug use [adjusted OR (aOR) = 2.03, (95% CI 1.00-4.09)], prior TB treatment (aOR = 3.42, 95% CI 1.88-6.22) and living in EE (aOR = 7.19, 95% CI 3.28-15.78) were associated with MDR-TB. For 569 patients with available DST, the initial TB treatment contained ≥3 active drugs in 64% of patients in EE compared with 90-94% of patients in other regions (Figure 1a). Had the patients received initial therapy with standard therapy [Rifampicin, Isoniazid, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (RHZE)], the corresponding proportions would have been 64% vs. 86-97%, respectively (Figure 1b). CONCLUSIONS In EE, TB/HIV patients had poorer exposure to cART, less often a definitive TB diagnosis and more often MDR-TB compared to other parts of Europe and LA. Initial TB therapy in EE was sub-optimal, with less than two-thirds of patients receiving at least three active drugs, and improved compliance with standard RHZE treatment does not seem to be the solution. Improved management of TB/HIV patients requires routine use of DST, initial TB therapy according to prevailing resistance patterns and more widespread use of cART.

Plant sterols and plant stanols in the management of dyslipidaemia and prevention of cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE This EAS Consensus Panel critically appraised evidence relevant to the benefit to risk relationship of functional foods with added plant sterols and/or plant stanols, as components of a healthy lifestyle, to reduce plasma low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels, and thereby lower cardiovascular risk. METHODS AND RESULTS Plant sterols/stanols (when taken at 2 g/day) cause significant inhibition of cholesterol absorption and lower LDL-C levels by between 8 and 10%. The relative proportions of cholesterol versus sterol/stanol levels are similar in both plasma and tissue, with levels of sterols/stanols being 500-/10,000-fold lower than those of cholesterol, suggesting they are handled similarly to cholesterol in most cells. Despite possible atherogenicity of marked elevations in circulating levels of plant sterols/stanols, protective effects have been observed in some animal models of atherosclerosis. Higher plasma levels of plant sterols/stanols associated with intakes of 2 g/day in man have not been linked to adverse effects on health in long-term human studies. Importantly, at this dose, plant sterol/stanol-mediated LDL-C lowering is additive to that of statins in dyslipidaemic subjects, equivalent to doubling the dose of statin. The reported 6-9% lowering of plasma triglyceride by 2 g/day in hypertriglyceridaemic patients warrants further evaluation. CONCLUSION Based on LDL-C lowering and the absence of adverse signals, this EAS Consensus Panel concludes that functional foods with plant sterols/stanols may be considered 1) in individuals with high cholesterol levels at intermediate or low global cardiovascular risk who do not qualify for pharmacotherapy, 2) as an adjunct to pharmacologic therapy in high and very high risk patients who fail to achieve LDL-C targets on statins or are statin- intolerant, 3) and in adults and children (>6 years) with familial hypercholesterolaemia, in line with current guidance. However, it must be acknowledged that there are no randomised, controlled clinical trial data with hard end-points to establish clinical benefit from the use of plant sterols or plant stanols.

Changes in blood lipids and their associations with changes in measures of height, weight and body mass index from age 8 to 18 years: Project Heartbeat!

A variety of studies indicate that the process of athrosclerosis begins in childhood. There was limited information on the association of the changes in anthropometric variables to blood lipids in school age children and adolescents. Previous longitudinal studies of children typically with insufficient frequency of observation could not provide sound inference on the dynamics of change in blood lipids. The aims of this analysis are (1) to document the sex- and ethnic-specific trajectory and velocity curves of blood lipids (TC, LDL-C, HDL-C and TG); (2) to evaluate the relationship of changes in anthropometric variables, such as height, weight and BMI, to blood lipids from age 8 to 18 years. ^ Project HeartBeat! is a longitudinal study designed to examine the patterns of serial change in major cardiovascular risk factors. Cohort of three different age levels, 8, 11 and 14 years at baseline, with a total of 678 participants were enrolled. Each member of these cohorts was examined three times per year for up to four years. ^ Sex- and ethnic-specific trajectory and velocity curves of blood lipids; demonstrated the complex and polyphasic changes in TC, LDL-C, HDL-C and TG longitudinally. The trajectory curves of TC, LDL-C and HDL-C with age showed curvilinear patterns of change. The velocity change in TC, HDL-C and LDL-C showed U-shaped curves for non-Blacks, and nearly linear lines in velocity of TG for both Blacks and non-Blacks. ^ The relationship of changes in anthropometric variables to blood lipids was evaulated by adding height, weight, or BMI and associated interaction terms separately to the basic age-sex models. Height or height gain had a significant negative association with changes in TC, LDL-C and HDL-C. Weight or BMI gain showed positive associations with TC, LDL-C and TC, and a negative relationship with HDL-C. ^ Dynamic changes of blood lipids in school age children and adolescents observed from this analysis suggested that using fixed screening criteria under the current NCEP guidelines for all ages 2–19 may not be appropriate for this age group. The association of increasing BMI or weight to an adverse blood lipid profile found in this analysis also indicated that weight or BMI monitoring could be a future intervention to be implemented in the pediatric population. ^

Tracking of plasma lipids and lipoproteins, within-person and year-to-year variability in plasma cholesterol levels among participants from age 8 to 18 in Project HeartBeat!

Coronary heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States and increased blood cholesterol level has been found to be a major risk factor with roots in childhood. Tracking of cholesterol, i.e., the tendency to maintain a particular cholesterol level relative to the rest of the population, and variability in blood lipid levels with increase in age have implications for cholesterol screening and assessment of lipid levels in children for possible prevention of further rise to prevent adulthood heart disease. In this study the pattern of change in plasma lipids, over time, and their tracking were investigated. Also, within-person variance and retest reliability defined as the square root of within-person variance for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides and their relation to age, sex and body mass index among participants from age 8 to 18 years were investigated. ^ In Project HeartBeat!, 678 healthy children aged 8, 11 and 14 years at baseline were enrolled and examined at 4-monthly intervals for up to 4 years. We examined the relationship between repeated observations by Pearson's correlations. Age- and sex-specific quintiles were calculated and the probability of participants to remain in the uppermost quintile of their respective distribution was evaluated with life table methods. Plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C at baseline were strongly and significantly correlated with measurements at subsequent visits across the sex and age groups. Plasma triglyceride at baseline was also significantly correlated with subsequent measurements but less strongly than was the case for other plasma lipids. The probability to remain in the upper quintile was also high (60 to 70%) for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C. ^ We used a mixed longitudinal, or synthetic cohort design with continuous observations from age 8 to 18 years to estimate within person variance of plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides. A total of 5809 measurements were available for both cholesterol and triglycerides. A multilevel linear model was used. Within-person variance among repeated measures over up to four years of follow-up was estimated for total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides separately. The relationship of within-person and inter-individual variance with age, sex, and body mass index was evaluated. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted by calculating the deviation of −2log (likelihood) within the basic model and alternative models. The square root of within-person variance provided the retest reliability (within person standard deviation) for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides. We found 13.6 percent retest reliability for plasma cholesterol, 6.1 percent for HDL-cholesterol, 11.9 percent for LDL-cholesterol and 32.4 percent for triglycerides. Retest reliability of plasma lipids was significantly related with age and body mass index. It increased with increase in body mass index and age. These findings have implications for screening guidelines, as participants in the uppermost quintile tended to maintain their status in each of the age groups during a four-year follow-up. The magnitude of within-person variability of plasma lipids influences the ability to classify children into risk categories recommended by the National Cholesterol Education Program. ^

The impact of traditional psychiatric services and case management services on the functioning of people with schizophrenia: A cross-national study in Nova Scotia and Texas

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of traditional psychiatric services with case management services on the functioning of people with schizophrenia. Traditional services were defined as routine clinic services consisting of medication follow-along, psychotherapy, and support services. Case management consisted of activities involved in linking, planning, and monitoring services for the outpatient client who has schizophrenia. The target population was adult schizophrenics who had been receiving outpatient clinic services for a minimum of six months. Structured interviews were conducted using standardized scales (e.g., Quality of Life, Self-Efficacy, and Brief Symptom Inventory) with 78 outpatient client volunteers from two sites: Nova Scotia (Canada) and Texas (USA). The researcher tested for differences in psychiatric symptomatology, recidivism, and quality of life for persons with schizophrenia receiving traditional psychiatric services in Nova Scotia and traditional plus case management services in Texas. Data were collected from the structured interviews and medical records review forms. Types of services were blocked into low and high levels of Intensity (frequency x minutes) and compared to determine the relative contribution of each. Finally, the role of clients' self-efficacy was tested as an intervening variable. Although the findings did not support the hypotheses in the direction anticipated, there were some interesting and useful results. From the Nova Scotia site, clients who received low levels of services were hospitalized less compared to the Texas site. The more psychotic a patient was the higher their involvement in medication follow-along and the more monitoring they received. The more psychotherapy received, the lower the reported satisfaction with social relationships. Of particular interest is the role that self-efficacy played in improved client outcomes. Although self-efficacy scores were related to improved functioning, the mechanism for this still needs to be clarified through subsequent research. ^

(Table 1) Circulating levels of TT3 and TT4, and age, length, girth, and estimated body mass in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from East Greenland 1999-2001

We investigated the multivariate relationships between adipose tissue residue levels of 48 individual organohalogen contaminants (OHCs) and circulating thyroid hormone (TH) levels in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from East Greenland (1999-2001, n = 62), using projection to latent structure (PLS) regression for four groupings of polar bears; subadults (SubA), adult females with cubs (AdF_N), adult females without cubs (AdF_S) and adult males (AdM). In the resulting significant PLS models for SubA, AdF_N and AdF_S, some OHCs were especially important in explaining variations in circulating TH levels: polybrominated diphenylether (PBDE)-99, PBDE-100, PBDE-153, polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-52, PCB-118, cis-nonachlor, trans-nonachlor, trichlorobenzene (TCB) and pentachlorobenzene (QCB), and both negative and positive relationships with THs were found. In addition, the models revealed that DDTs had a positive influence on total 3,5,3'-triiodothyronine (TT3) in AdF_S, and that a group of 17 higher chlorinated ortho-PCBs had a positive influence on total 3,5,3',5'-tetraiodothyronine (thyroxine, TT4) in AdF_N. TH levels in AdM seemed less influenced by OHCs because of non-significant PLS models. TH levels were also influenced by biological factors such as age, sex, body size, lipid content of adipose tissue and sampling date. When controlling for biological variables, the major relationships from the PLS models for SubA, AdF_N and AdF_S were found significant in partial correlations. The most important OHCs that influenced TH levels in the significant PLS models may potentially act through similar mechanisms on the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis, suggesting that both combined effects by dose and response addition and perhaps synergistic potentiation may be a possibility in these polar bears. Statistical associations are not evidence per se of biological cause-effect relationships. Still, the results of the present study indicate that OHCs may affect circulating TH levels in East Greenland polar bears, adding to the "weight of evidence" suggesting that OHCs might interfere with thyroid homeostasis in polar bears.

Regularized model learning in EDAs for continuous and multi-objective optimization

Probabilistic modeling is the de�ning characteristic of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) which determines their behavior and performance in optimization. Regularization is a well-known statistical technique used for obtaining an improved model by reducing the generalization error of estimation, especially in high-dimensional problems. `1-regularization is a type of this technique with the appealing variable selection property which results in sparse model estimations. In this thesis, we study the use of regularization techniques for model learning in EDAs. Several methods for regularized model estimation in continuous domains based on a Gaussian distribution assumption are presented, and analyzed from di�erent aspects when used for optimization in a high-dimensional setting, where the population size of EDA has a logarithmic scale with respect to the number of variables. The optimization results obtained for a number of continuous problems with an increasing number of variables show that the proposed EDA based on regularized model estimation performs a more robust optimization, and is able to achieve signi�cantly better results for larger dimensions than other Gaussian-based EDAs. We also propose a method for learning a marginally factorized Gaussian Markov random �eld model using regularization techniques and a clustering algorithm. The experimental results show notable optimization performance on continuous additively decomposable problems when using this model estimation method. Our study also covers multi-objective optimization and we propose joint probabilistic modeling of variables and objectives in EDAs based on Bayesian networks, speci�cally models inspired from multi-dimensional Bayesian network classi�ers. It is shown that with this approach to modeling, two new types of relationships are encoded in the estimated models in addition to the variable relationships captured in other EDAs: objectivevariable and objective-objective relationships. An extensive experimental study shows the e�ectiveness of this approach for multi- and many-objective optimization. With the proposed joint variable-objective modeling, in addition to the Pareto set approximation, the algorithm is also able to obtain an estimation of the multi-objective problem structure. Finally, the study of multi-objective optimization based on joint probabilistic modeling is extended to noisy domains, where the noise in objective values is represented by intervals. A new version of the Pareto dominance relation for ordering the solutions in these problems, namely �-degree Pareto dominance, is introduced and its properties are analyzed. We show that the ranking methods based on this dominance relation can result in competitive performance of EDAs with respect to the quality of the approximated Pareto sets. This dominance relation is then used together with a method for joint probabilistic modeling based on `1-regularization for multi-objective feature subset selection in classi�cation, where six di�erent measures of accuracy are considered as objectives with interval values. The individual assessment of the proposed joint probabilistic modeling and solution ranking methods on datasets with small-medium dimensionality, when using two di�erent Bayesian classi�ers, shows that comparable or better Pareto sets of feature subsets are approximated in comparison to standard methods.