Aplicação de um modelo de programação linear inteira mista (PLIM) na expansão da rede de distribuição de energia elétrica em Angola

Em Angola, apenas cerca de 30% da população tem acesso à energia elétrica, nível que decresce para valores inferiores a 10% em zonas rurais mais remotas. Este problema é agravado pelo facto de, na maioria dos casos, as infraestruturas existentes se encontrarem danificadas ou não acompanharem o desenvolvimento da região. Em particular na capital angolana, Luanda que, sendo a menor província de Angola, é a que regista atualmente a maior densidade populacional. Com uma população de cerca de 5 milhões de habitantes, não só há frequentemente problemas relacionados com a falha do fornecimento de energia elétrica como há ainda uma percentagem considerável de municípios onde a rede elétrica ainda nem sequer chegou. O governo de Angola, no seu esforço de crescimento e aproveitamento das suas enormes potencialidades, definiu o setor energético como um dos fatores críticos para o desenvolvimento sustentável do país, tendo assumido que este é um dos eixos prioritários até 2016. Existem objetivos claros quanto à reabilitação e expansão das infraestruturas do setor elétrico, aumentando a capacidade instalada do país e criando uma rede nacional adequada, com o intuito não só de melhorar a qualidade e fiabilidade da rede já existente como de a aumentar. Este trabalho de dissertação consistiu no levantamento de dados reais relativamente à rede de distribuição de energia elétrica de Luanda, na análise e planeamento do que é mais premente fazer relativamente à sua expansão, na escolha dos locais onde é viável localizar novas subestações, na modelação adequada do problema real e na proposta de uma solução ótima para a expansão da rede existente. Depois de analisados diferentes modelos matemáticos aplicados ao problema de expansão de redes de distribuição de energia elétrica encontrados na literatura, optou-se por um modelo de programação linear inteira mista (PLIM) que se mostrou adequado. Desenvolvido o modelo do problema, o mesmo foi resolvido por recurso a software de otimização Analytic Solver e CPLEX. Como forma de validação dos resultados obtidos, foi implementada a solução de rede no simulador PowerWorld 8.0 OPF, software este que permite a simulação da operação do sistema de trânsito de potências.

On the analysis of data emerging in non-linear and complex systemscomparison of two X-Ray prony spectra

New arguments proving that successive (repeated) measurements have a memory and actually remember each other are presented. The recognition of this peculiarity can change essentially the existing paradigm associated with conventional observation in behavior of different complex systems and lead towards the application of an intermediate model (IM). This IM can provide a very accurate fit of the measured data in terms of the Prony's decomposition. This decomposition, in turn, contains a small set of the fitting parameters relatively to the number of initial data points and allows comparing the measured data in cases where the “best fit” model based on some specific physical principles is absent. As an example, we consider two X-ray diffractometers (defined in paper as A- (“cheap”) and B- (“expensive”) that are used after their proper calibration for the measuring of the same substance (corundum a-Al2O3). The amplitude-frequency response (AFR) obtained in the frame of the Prony's decomposition can be used for comparison of the spectra recorded from (A) and (B) - X-ray diffractometers (XRDs) for calibration and other practical purposes. We prove also that the Fourier decomposition can be adapted to “ideal” experiment without memory while the Prony's decomposition corresponds to real measurement and can be fitted in the frame of the IM in this case. New statistical parameters describing the properties of experimental equipment (irrespective to their internal “filling”) are found. The suggested approach is rather general and can be used for calibration and comparison of different complex dynamical systems in practical purposes.

Analyzing Multiple Outcomes: Is it Really Worth the use of Multivariate Linear Regression?

In health related research it is common to have multiple outcomes of interest in a single study. These outcomes are often analysed separately, ignoring the correlation between them. One would expect that a multivariate approach would be a more efficient alternative to individual analyses of each outcome. Surprisingly, this is not always the case. In this article we discuss different settings of linear models and compare the multivariate and univariate approaches. We show that for linear regression models, the estimates of the regression parameters associated with covariates that are shared across the outcomes are the same for the multivariate and univariate models while for outcome-specific covariates the multivariate model performs better in terms of efficiency.

A simplified four-branch model for the analytical study of the out-of-plane performance of regular stone URM walls

During the last years, several studies have been made aiming to assess the out-of-plane seismic response of unreinforced stone masonry structures. This fact led to the development of a wide variety of models and approaches, ranging from simple kinematic based analytical models up to complex numerical simulations. Nevertheless, for the sake of simplicity, the out-of-plane seismic response of a masonry wall pier may be obtained by means of a simple single-degree-of-freedom system while still providing good results. In fact, despite the assumptions associated with such a simple formulation, it is also true that the epistemic uncertainty inherent with the selection of appropriate input parameters in more complex models may render them truly ineffective. In this framework, this paper focuses on the study of the out-of-plane bending of unreinforced stone masonry walls (cantilevers) by proposing a simplified analytical approach based on the construction of a linearized four-branch model, which is used to characterize the linear and nonlinear response of such structural elements through an overturning moment-rotation relationship. The formulation of the four-branch model is presented and described in detail and the meaningful parameters used for its construction are obtained from a set of experimental laboratory tests performed on six full-scale unreinforced regular sacco stone masonry specimens. Moreover, a parametric analysis aiming to evaluate the effect of these parameters’ variation on the final configuration of the model is presented and critically discussed. Finally, the results obtained from the application of the developed four-branch model on real unreinforced regular sacco stone masonry walls are thoroughly analysed and the main conclusions obtained from its application are summarized.

Non emergency patients transport - a mixed integer linear programming

This work presents a model and a heuristic to solve the non-emergency patients transport (NEPT) service issues given the new rules recently established in Portugal. The model follows the same principle of the Team Orienteering Problem by selecting the patients to be included in the routes attending the maximum reduction in costs when compared with individual transportation. This model establishes the best sets of patients to be transported together. The model was implemented in AMPL and a compact formulation was solved using NEOS Server. A heuristic procedure based on iteratively solving problems with one vehicle was presented, and this heuristic provides good results in terms of accuracy and computation time.

A high order model for piezoelectric rods: an asymptotic approach

Preprint submitted to International Journal of Solids and Structures. ISSN 0020-7683

Associations, causation and model in psychiatry

This paper discusses models, associations and causation in psychiatry. The different types of association (linear, positive, negative, exponential, partial, U shaped relationship, hidden and spurious) between variables involved in mental disorders are presented as well as the use of multiple regression analysis to disentangle interrelatedness amongst multiple variables. A useful model should have internal consistency, external validity and predictive power; be dynamic in order to accommodate new sound knowledge; and should fit facts rather than they other way around. It is argued that whilst models are theoretical constructs they also convey a style of reasoning and can change clinical practice. Cause and effect are complex phenomena in that the same cause can yield different effects. Conversely, the same effect can have a different range of causes. In mental disorders and human behaviour there is always a chain of events initiated by the indirect and remote cause; followed by intermediate causes; and finally the direct and more immediate cause. Causes of mental disorders are grouped as those: (i) which are necessary and sufficient; (ii) which are necessary but not sufficient; and (iii) which are neither necessary nor sufficient, but when present increase the risk for mental disorders.

An integrated model for simulation of construction phasing of arch concrete dams

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Civil Engineering

Encapsulation and controlled release of bioactive compounds in lactoferrin-glycomacropeptide nanohydrogels : curcumin and caffeine as model compounds

Curcumin and caffeine (used as lipophilic and hydrophilic model compounds, respectively) were successfully encapsulated in lactoferrin-glycomacropeptide (Lf-GMP) nanohydrogels by thermal gelation showing high encapsulation efficiencies (>90 %). FTIR spectroscopy confirmed the encapsulation of bioactive compounds in Lf-GMP nanohydrogels and revealed that according to the encapsulated compound different interactions occur with the nanohydrogel matrix. The successful encapsulation of bioactive compounds in Lf-GMP nanohydrogels was also confirmed by fluorescence measurements and confocal laser scanning microscopy. TEM images showed that loaded nanohydrogels maintain their spherical shape with sizes of 112 and 126 nm for curcumin and caffeine encapsulated in Lf-GMP nanohydrogels, respectively; in both cases a polydispersity of 0.2 was obtained. The release mechanisms of bioactive compounds through Lf-GMP nanohydrogels were evaluated at pH 2 and pH 7, by fitting the Linear Superimposition Model to the experimental data. The bioactive compounds release was found to be pH-dependent: at pH 2, relaxation is the governing phenomenon for curcumin and caffeine compounds and at pH 7 Ficks diffusion is the main mechanism of caffeine release while curcumin was not released through Lf-GMP nanohydrogels.

A cumulative risk model of child physical maltreatment potential: findings from a community-based study

"Published online before print November 20, 2015"

Determination of displacement, stress- and strain-distribution in the human heart: a FE-model on the basis of MR imaging.

The determination of characteristic cardiac parameters, such as displacement, stress and strain distribution are essential for an understanding of the mechanics of the heart. The calculation of these parameters has been limited until recently by the use of idealised mathematical representations of biventricular geometries and by applying simple material laws. On the basis of 20 short axis heart slices and in consideration of linear and nonlinear material behaviour we have developed a FE model with about 100,000 degrees of freedom. Marching Cubes and Phong's incremental shading technique were used to visualise the three dimensional geometry. In a quasistatic FE analysis continuous distribution of regional stress and strain corresponding to the endsystolic state were calculated. Substantial regional variation of the Von Mises stress and the total strain energy were observed at all levels of the heart model. The results of both the linear elastic model and the model with a nonlinear material description (Mooney-Rivlin) were compared. While the stress distribution and peak stress values were found to be comparable, the displacement vectors obtained with the nonlinear model were generally higher in comparison with the linear elastic case indicating the need to include nonlinear effects.

A theoretical and practical study on linear reforms of dual taxes

We extend the linear reforms introduced by Pf¨ahler (1984) to the case of dual taxes. We study the relative effect that linear dual tax cuts have on the inequality of income distribution -a symmetrical study can be made for dual linear tax hikes-. We also introduce measures of the degree of progressivity for dual taxes and show that they can be connected to the Lorenz dominance criterion. Additionally, we study the tax liability elasticity of each of the reforms proposed. Finally, by means of a microsimulation model and a considerably large data set of taxpayers drawn from 2004 Spanish Income Tax Return population, 1) we compare different yield-equivalent tax cuts applied to the Spanish dual income tax and 2) we investigate how much income redistribution the dual tax reform (Act ‘35/2006’) introduced with respect to the previous tax.

A New Model Of Trend Inflation

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.