Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Methods to explicitly represent uncertainties in weather and climate models have been developed and refined over the past decade, and have reduced biases and improved forecast skill when implemented in the atmospheric component of models. These methods have not yet been applied to the land surface component of models. Since the land surface is strongly coupled to the atmospheric state at certain times and in certain places (such as the European summer of 2003), improvements in the representation of land surface uncertainty may potentially lead to improvements in atmospheric forecasts for such events. Here we analyse seasonal retrospective forecasts for 1981–2012 performed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) coupled ensemble forecast model. We consider two methods of incorporating uncertainty into the land surface model (H-TESSEL): stochastic perturbation of tendencies, and static perturbation of key soil parameters. We find that the perturbed parameter approach considerably improves the forecast of extreme air temperature for summer 2003, through better representation of negative soil moisture anomalies and upward sensible heat flux. Averaged across all the reforecasts the perturbed parameter experiment shows relatively little impact on the mean bias, suggesting perturbations of at least this magnitude can be applied to the land surface without any degradation of model climate. There is also little impact on skill averaged across all reforecasts and some evidence of overdispersion for soil moisture. The stochastic tendency experiments show a large overdispersion for the soil temperature fields, indicating that the perturbation here is too strong. There is also some indication that the forecast of the 2003 warm event is improved for the stochastic experiments, however the improvement is not as large as observed for the perturbed parameter experiment.

Sensitivity and variability redux in hot-Jupiter flow simulations

We revisit the issue of sensitivity to initial flow and intrinsic variability in hot-Jupiter atmospheric flow simulations, originally investigated by Cho et al. (2008) and Thrastarson & Cho (2010). The flow in the lower region (~1 to 20 MPa) `dragged' to immobility and uniform temperature on a very short timescale, as in Liu & Showman (2013), leads to effectively a complete cessation of variability as well as sensitivity in three-dimensional (3D) simulations with traditional primitive equations. Such momentum (Rayleigh) and thermal (Newtonian) drags are, however, ad hoc for 3D giant planet simulations. For 3D hot-Jupiter simulations, which typically already employ strong Newtonian drag in the upper region, sensitivity is not quenched if only the Newtonian drag is applied in the lower region, without the strong Rayleigh drag: in general, both sensitivity and variability persist if the two drags are not applied concurrently in the lower region. However, even when the drags are applied concurrently, vertically-propagating planetary waves give rise to significant variability in the ~0.05 to 0.5 MPa region, if the vertical resolution of the lower region is increased (e.g. here with 1000 layers for the entire domain). New observations on the effects of the physical setup and model convergence in ‘deep’ atmosphere simulations are also presented.

The 2014 hot, dry summer in Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia experienced a severe drought in summer 2014. Sea surface temperature forcing may have increased the risk of low precipitation, but model biases preclude reliable attribution to anthropogenic forcing.

Associations of dietary dark-green and deep-yellow vegetables and fruits with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: modification by smoking

Smoking has been positively and fruit and vegetable intake has been negatively associated with cervical cancer, the second most common cancer among women worldwide. However, a lower consumption of fruits and reduced serum carotenoids have been observed among smokers. It is not known whether the smoking effect on the risk of cervical neoplasia is modified by a low intake of fruits and vegetables. The present study examined the combined effects of tobacco smoking and diet using a validated FFQ and serum carotenoid and tocopherol levels on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) risk in a hospital-based case-control study conducted in Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 2003 and 2005. The sample comprised 231 incident, histologically confirmed cases of CIN3 and 453 controls. A low intake (<= 39 g) of dark-green and deep-yellow vegetables and fruits without tobacco smoking had a lesser effect on CIN3 (OR 1.14; 95% CI 0.49, 2.65) than among smokers with higher intake (>= 40 g; OR 1.83; 95% CI 0.73, 4.62) after adjusting for confounders. The OR for the joint exposure of tobacco smoking and low intake of vegetables and fruits was greater (3.86; 95% CI 1.74, 8.57; P for trend < 0.001) compared with non-smokers with higher intake after adjusting for confounding variables and human papillomavirus status. Similar results were observed for total fruit, serum total carotene (including beta-, alpha-and gamma-carotene) and tocopherols. These findings suggest that the effect of nutritional factors on CIN3 is modified by smoking.

A prospective 12-month study of the effect of smoking cessation on periodontal clinical parameters

P>Aim The aim of this 12-month prospective study was to assess the adjunctive effect of smoking cessation in non-surgical periodontal therapy of subjects with severe chronic periodontitis. Materials and methods Of the 201 subjects enrolled from a smoking cessation clinic, 93 were eligible and received non-surgical periodontal treatment and concurrent smoking cessation treatment. Periodontal maintenance was performed every 3 months. Full-mouth periodontal examination in six sites per tooth was performed by a calibrated examiner, blinded to smoking status, at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months after non-surgical periodontal treatment. Furthermore, expired air carbon monoxide concentration measurements and interviews based on a structured questionnaire were performed in order to collect demographic and smoking data. Results Of the 93 eligible subjects, 52 remained in the study after 1 year. Of these, 17 quit smoking and 35 continued smoking or oscillated. After 1 year, only quitters presented significant clinical attachment gain (p=0.04). However, there were no differences between the groups regarding clinical attachment level, probing depth, bleeding on probing and plaque index after 1 year (p > 0.05). Conclusion Smoking cessation promoted clinical attachment gain in chronic periodontitis subjects from a smoking cessation clinic after 1 year of follow-up.

Identification of geodesic chirping Alfven modes and q-factor estimation in hot core tokamak plasmas in ASDEX Upgrade

Alfven eigenmodes (AE) driven by ion cyclotron resonance heating are usually registered by different diagnostic channels in the hot core plasmas of large tokamaks like JET and ASDEX Upgrade. These AE appear very near to the extremum points of Alfven wave continuum, which is modified by the geodesic effect due to poloidal mode coupling. It is shown that the AE spectrum may be explored as the magnetic spectroscopy (like Alfven cascades by Sharapov et al 2001 Phys. Lett. A 289 127) to determine the q-factor minimum and geodesic frequency at the magnetic axis in standard sawtoothed discharges without reversed shear.

Sound waves and solitons in hot and dense nuclear matter

Assuming that nuclear matter can be treated as a perfect fluid, we study the propagation of perturbations in the baryon density. The equation of state is derived from a relativistic mean field model, which is a variant of the non-linear Walecka model. The expansion of the Euler and continuity equations of relativistic hydrodynamics around equilibrium configurations leads to differential equations for the density perturbation. We solve them numerically for linear and spherical perturbations and follow the propagation of the initial pulses. For linear perturbations we find single soliton solutions and solutions with one or more solitons followed by ""radiation"". Depending on the equation of state a strong damping may occur. We consider also the evolution of perturbations in a medium without dispersive effects. In this case we observe the formation and breaking of shock waves. We study all these equations also for matter at finite temperature. Our results may be relevant for the analysis of RHIC data. They suggest that the shock waves formed in the quark gluon plasma phase may survive and propagate in the hadronic phase. (C) 2009 Elseiver. B.V. All rights reserved.

Shock wave formation in hot nuclear matter

Assuming that nuclear matter can be treated as a perfect fluid, we study the propagation of perturbations in the baryon density at high temperature. The equation of state is derived from the non-linear Walecka model. The expansion of the Euler and continuity equations of relativistic hydrodynamics around equilibrium configurations lead to the breaking wave equation for the density perturbation. We solve it numerically for this perturbation and follow the propagation of the initial pulses.

Conflicting structural and geochronological data from the Ibituruna quartz-syenite (SE Brazil): Effect of protracted ""hot"" orogeny and slow cooling rate?

The Ibituruna quartz-syenite was emplaced as a sill in the Ribeira-Aracuai Neoproterozoic belt (Southeastern Brazil) during the last stages of the Gondwana supercontinent amalgamation. We have measured the Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) in samples from the Ibituruna sill to unravel its magnetic fabric that is regarded as a proxy for its magmatic fabric. A large magnetic anisotropy, dominantly due to magnetite, and a consistent magnetic fabric have been determined over the entire Ibituruna massif. The magmatic foliation and lineation are strikingly parallel to the solid-state mylonitic foliation and lineation measured in the country-rock. Altogether, these observations suggest that the Ibituruna sill was emplaced during the high temperature (similar to 750 degrees C) regional deformation and was deformed before full solidification coherently with its country-rock. Unexpectedly, geochronological data suggest a rather different conclusion. LA-ICP-MS and SHRIMP ages of zircons from the Ibituruna quartz-syenite are in the range 530-535 Ma and LA-ICP-MS ages of zircons and monazites from synkinematic leucocratic veins in the country-rocks suggest a crystallization at similar to 570-580 Ma, i.e., an HT deformation >35My older than the emplacement of the Ibituruna quartz-syenite. Conclusions from the structural and the geochronological studies are therefore conflicting. A possible explanation arises from (40)Ar-(39)Ar thermochronology. We have dated amphiboles from the quartz-syenite, and amphiboles and biotites from the country-rock. Together with the ages of monazites and zircons in the country-rock, (40)Ar-(39)Ar mineral ages suggest a very low cooling rate: <3 degrees C/My between 570 and similar to 500 Ma and similar to 5 degrees C/My between 500 and 460 Ma. Assuming a protracted regional deformation consistent over tens of My, under such stable thermal conditions the fabric and microstructure of deformed rocks may remain almost unchanged even if they underwent and recorded strain pulses separated by long periods of time. This may be a characteristic of slow cooling ""hot orogens"" that rocks deformed at significantly different periods during the orogeny, but under roughly unchanged temperature conditions, may display almost indiscernible microstructure and fabric. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Koldiffusionens inverkan på utmattnings-hållfastheten hos varmvalsade sexkantsstänger;The influence of carbon diffusion on the fatigue strength of hot rolled hexagonal rods

Helstångsborr och konstång kallas bergborrverktyg, som tillverkas av sexkantiga stänger med inre hål för ledning av spolvatten. Dessa spolhål är klädda med ferritiskt rostfritt stål. Innan valsning borras ett centrerat hål i stålämnet som ska valsas. I det borrade hålet appliceras ett rör av ferritiskt rostfritt stål och i det röret skjuts en manganstålskärna in. Efter valsning dras kärnan ut och ett spolhål med invändigt foder av rostfritt stål bildas. Under uppvärmningen och valsningen av stålämnet sker normalt en koldiffusion från manganstålskärnan till det rostfria fodret. Fodrets syfte är att skydda spolhålets yta mot erosion och korrosion.Syftet med arbetet var att hitta en metod som garanterar uppkolning av det invändiga fodret, samt att utreda vad uppkolningen betyder för den mekaniska hållfastheten i stängerna. Ett laboratorieförsök visade att det var bra, med avseende på uppkolning, att blanda stearat i kärnbestrykningsmedlet. Kärnbestrykningsmedlet penslas på manganstålskärnan innan den förs in i stålämnet som ska valsas, dess syfte är att minska friktionen vid kärnutdragningen efter valsning.Ett försök utfördes i valsverket med stearat i kärnbestrykningsmedlet. En grundlig undersökning utfördes på två hetor som valsats med stearat-bestrykningsmedel, samt på en traditionellt tillverkad heta för att ha som referens. Hetorna kapades till provstänger om 1,5 m, totalt undersöktes 55 st.Utvärderingen av verksförsöket visade att stängernas kvalitet blir tillräckligt bra om ingenting oförutsett händer i produktionen, oavsett om koltillskott är tillsatt i bestrykningsmedlet eller inte. Arbetet gav inte en garanterande metod, men visade att stängerna normalt håller hög kvalitet.

Faktorer som påverkar uppkomsten av hot och våld inom psykiatrin

Syftet med denna systematiska litteraturstudie var att beskriva faktorer som påverkade uppkomsten av hot och våld inom psykiatrin. Till resultatet har författarna använt sig av tjugoen vetenskapliga artiklar som hämtats ur Högskolan dalarnas databaser ELIN, Academic Search Elite samt Cinahl. Sökord i olika kombinationer har använts för att få fram relevant litteratur till studien. De sökord som användes var violence, nursing, mental health nurses, aggressive patients, aggressive behaviour, psychiatric units, patients, factors, prevention, aggression, nurses, psychiatric, management, psychiatry och causes. Även manuell sökning i tidskrifter har gjorts. Artiklarna skulle vara publicerade tidigast år 2000 om inte tidigare studier ansågs innehålla relevant fakta för studien. Granskning av artiklarna genomfördes med hjälp av granskningsmallar. Resultatet visade att bemötandet av patienter inom psykiatrisk vård var av stor betydelse för om hotfulla och våldsamma incidenter skulle inträffa. Att som vårdpersonal försöka förstå anledningen till den uppkomna situationen kunde leda till att dessa situationer kunde undvikas. Patienterna upplevde ofta att personalen inte lyssnade och detta var en vanlig orsak till att våldsamma incidenter uppstod. Vårdpersonalen ansåg istället att patientens sjukdom var orsaken till uppkomsten av hot och våld. På avdelningar där patienter med paranoida och psykotiska tendenser var intagna ökade risken för våldsamma situationer. Patienterna upplevde ofta tiden på den psykiatriska avdelningen som långtråkig och det påverkade stämningen. Både vårdpersonal och patienter ansåg att mer aktiviteter skulle minska aggressionen på avdelningen.

Haren. Ett hot mot idrottens värde?

Inom friidrottens löpgrenar kan man idag se vid de stora galorna att det finns en person som har till uppgift att springa före övriga deltagare och springa i en viss fart som har beställts antingen av arrangörerna eller någon löpare. Denna person kallas för "hare" vars huvuduppgift är att se till att ett visst tempo hålls under loppet. Men vad har detta fenomen för effekt på idrottens värde? Detta arbete ger en beskrivning av fenomenet "haren" både ur historiskt perspektiv samt hur det ser ut i nutida läge. Genom diverse teorier om vad som skapar värde inom idrott och hur idrott bör utföras för att uppfattas som mer "äkta" har fenomenet sedan analyserats för att bestämma om fenomenet är något positivt eller negativt för idrottens värde. Prestationer är något som ska genomföras på egen hand och idrottaren skall besitta de resurser som krävs för att kunna genomföra ett lopp helt på egen hand och kunna hantera både interna och externa påfrestningar. Att inte veta vem som kommer att vinna är den ovisshet som skapar spänning och därmed värde inom idrott. Med haren har man eliminerat denna ovisshet för att i stället få spänning genom att fokusera loppen på att slå rekord. Detta sätt att skapa prestationer har en mycket negativ påverkan på idrottens värde vilket får en detaljerad analys i detta arbete.

Calucaltion of waste heat from hot rolled steel coils at SSAB and its recovery

Hot rolling process is heat input process. The heat energy in hot rolled steel coils can be utilized. At SSAB Strip Product Borlänge when the hot rolled steel coils came out of the hot rolling mill they are at the temperature range of 500°C to 800°C. Heat energy contained by the one hot rolled steel coil is about 1981Kwh whereas the total heat energy for the year 2008 is 230 GWh/year.The potential of heat is too much but the heat dissipation rate is too slow. Different factors on which heat dissipation rate depends are discussed.Three suggestions are proposed to collect the waste heat from hot rolled steel coils.The 2nd proposal in which water basin is suggested would help not only to collect the waste heat but to decrease in the cooling time.

Hot och våld i socialarbetares yrkesutövning : Threats and violence in the socialwelfare secretary occupation.

2004, the SSR, Akademikerförbundet, made a study on the threats and violence as a social secretary in the municipal social services are exposed in their occupation of the "social secretary of threats and violence at work" (T-110192), conducted by Temo ab. We have chosen to use the study on a smaller scale and then made contact with five municipalities in the middle of Sweden to investigate social secretaries experiences of threats and violence. Using the cross-sectional design and a convenience sample, we have gained access to data from 56 people. From a sociological perspective, we have chosen to use Norbert Elias theory of universal configuration and interdependence, and Michel Foucault’s theories concerning power search explanation for the existence of threats and violent situations in the contact between social workers and their clients.

Modeling precipitation and its effect on recrystallization during hot strip rolling of niobium steels

Using a physically based model, the microstructural evolution of Nb microalloyed steels during rolling in SSAB Tunnplåt’s hot strip mill was modeled. The model describes the evolution of dislocation density, the creation and diffusion of vacancies, dynamic and static recovery through climb and glide, subgrain formation and growth, dynamic and static recrystallization and grain growth. Also, the model describes the dissolution and precipitation of particles. The impeding effect on grain growth and recrystallization due to solute drag and particles is accounted for. During hot strip rolling of Nb steels, Nb in solid solution retards recrystallization due to solute drag and at lower temperatures strain-induced precipitation of Nb(C,N) may occur which effectively retard recrystallization. The flow stress behavior during hot rolling was calculated where the mean flow stress values were calculated using both the model and measured mill data. The model showed that solute drag has an essential effect on recrystallization during hot rolling of Nb steels.