The sovereign CDS-Bond basis: From a crisis perspective

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of exchange rates: An empirical analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Covered interest parity

This report aims to study the evolution of the Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) over the course of the last years. With the 2007 financial crisis many fundamental relationships changed, and CIP was not an exception. To infer whether or not this was an isolate event, the behaviour of the CIP during the European Sovereign debt crisis was studied. Currency pairs such as EURUSD showed significant CIP deviations during both crises. This work shows that currently, spreads are mostly explained by counterparty risk and market sentiment factors, which are extremely different factors from the ones explaining the spread during 2003-06. Key

Common and Idiosyncratic Factors of the Exchange Risk Premium in Emerging European Markets

Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel data set of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country-specific) elements and a common factor using a principal components approach. We present evidence of a stationary idiosyncratic component and nonstationary common factor. This result leads to the conclusion of a nonstationary risk premium for these countries and a violation of the UIRP in the long-run, which is in contrast to previous studies often documenting a stationary premium in developed countries. Furthermore, we report that the variation in the premium is largely attributable to a common factor influenced by economic developments in the United States.

Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis

This paper develops a structured dynamic factor model for the spreads between London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight index swap (OIS) rates for a panel of banks. Our model involves latent factors which reflect liquidity and credit risk. Our empirical results show that surges in the short term LIBOR-OIS spreads during the 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis were largely driven by liquidity risk. However, credit risk played a more signifi cant role in the longer term (twelve-month) LIBOR-OIS spread. The liquidity risk factors are more volatile than the credit risk factor. Most of the familiar events in the financial crisis are linked more to movements in liquidity risk than credit risk.

Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis

This study examines the impact of macro-liquidity shocks on the returns of UK stock portfolios sorted on the basis of a series of micro-liquidity measures. The macro-liquidity shocks are extracted on the meeting days of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee relative to market expectations embedded in futures contracts on the 3-month LIBOR during the period June 1999- December 2009. We report definitive evidence that these shocks are transmitted to the cross-section of liquidity-sorted portfolios, with most liquid stocks playing a very active role. Our results emphatically document that the shocks-returns relationship has reversed its sign during the recent financial crisis; the standard inverse relationship between interest rate surprises and portfolios’ returns before the crisis has turned into positive during the crisis. This finding confirms the inability of interest rate cuts to boost returns in the shortrun during the crisis, because these were perceived by market participants as a signal of a deteriorating economic outlook.

Stock Market Liquidity and Macro-Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis

We develop an empirical framework that links micro-liquidity, macro-liquidity and stock prices. We provide evidence of a strong link between macro-liquidity shocks and the returns of UK stock portfolios constructed on the basis of micro-liquidity measures between 1999-2012. Specifically, macro-liquidity shocks, which are extracted on the meeting days of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee relative to market expectations embedded in 3-month LIBOR futures prices, are transmitted in a differential manner to the cross-section of liquidity-sorted portfolios, with liquid stocks playing the most active role. We also find that there is a significant increase in shares’ trading activity and a rather small increase in their trading cost on MPC meeting days. Finally, our results emphatically document that during the recent financial crisis the shocks-returns relationship has reversed its sign. Interest rate cuts during the crisis were perceived by market participants as a signal of deteriorating economic prospects and reinforced “flight to safety” trading.

Bands width, credibility and exchange risk: Lessons from the EMS experience

This paper presents an analysis of the credibility of the EMScurrencies that covers the period before and after the increase in thebands of fluctuation. Our credibility indicator is based on the inferredprobabilities derived from the estimation of a Markov-switching model(Hamilton (1989)) applied to the expected rate of depreciation. Theresults show that, for most of the currencies, credibility has improved,at least transitorily, after the increase in the bands. However, for allcurrencies, the credibility measured by the indicator proposed in thispaper has been eroded recently even with the widened bands.

A high proportion of users of low-threshold facilities with needle exchange programmes in Switzerland are currently on methadone treatment: implications for new approaches in harm reduction and care.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, patients receiving methadone treatment are found in low threshold facilities (LTF), which provide needle exchange programmes in Switzerland. This paper identifies the characteristics of LTF attendees receiving methadone treatment (MT) compared with other LTF attendees (non-MT). METHODS: A national cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2006 over five consecutive days in all LTF (n=25). Attendees were given an anonymous questionnaire, collecting information on socio-demographic indicators, drug consumption, injection, methadone treatment, and self-reported HIV and HCV status. Univariate analysis and logistic regression were performed to compare MT to non-MT. The response rate was 66% (n=1128). RESULTS: MT comprised 57.6% of the sample. In multivariate analysis, factors associated with being on MT were older age (OR: 1.38), being female (OR: 1.60), having one's own accommodation (OR: 1.56), receiving public assistance (OR: 2.29), lifetime injecting (OR: 2.26), HIV-positive status (OR: 2.00), and having consumed cocaine during the past month (OR: 1.37); MT were less likely to have consumed heroin in the past month (OR: 0.76, not significant) and visited LTF less often on a daily basis (OR: 0.59). The number of injections during the past week was not associated with MT. CONCLUSIONS: More LTF attendees were in the MT group, bringing to light an underappreciated LTF clientele with specific needs. The MT group consumption profile may reflect therapeutic failure or deficits in treatment quality and it is necessary to acknowledge this and to strengthen the awareness of LTF personnel about potential needs of MT attendees to meet their therapeutic goals.

Determination of radionuclide levels in rainwater using ion exchange resin and gamma-spectrometry.

The evaluation of radioactivity accidentally released into the atmosphere involves determining the radioactivity levels of rainwater samples. Rainwater scavenges atmospheric airborne radioactivity in such a way that surface contamination can be deduced from rainfall rate and rainwater radioactivity content. For this purpose, rainwater is usually collected in large surface collectors and then measured by gamma-spectrometry after such treatments as evaporation or iron hydroxide precipitation. We found that collectors can be adapted to accept large surface (diameter 47mm) cartridges containing a strongly acidic resin (Dowex AG 88) which is able to quantitatively extract radioactivity from rainwater, even during heavy rainfall. The resin can then be measured by gamma-spectrometry. The detection limit is 0.1Bq per sample of resin (80g) for (137)Cs. Natural (7)Be and (210)Pb can also be measured and the activity ratio of both radionuclides is comparable with those obtained through iron hydroxide precipitation and air filter measurements. Occasionally (22)Na has also been measured above the detection limit. A comparison between the evaporation method and the resin method demonstrated that 2/3 of (7)Be can be lost during the evaporation process. The resin method is simple and highly efficient at extracting radioactivity. Because of these great advantages, we anticipate it could replace former rainwater determination methods. Moreover, it does not necessitate the transportation of large rainwater volumes to the laboratory.

Oxygen consumption of Litopenaeus vannamei juveniles in heterotrophic medium with zero water exchange

This work aimed at determining the dissolved oxygen consumption rate of Litopenaeus vannamei juveniles maintained in a microbial biofloc raceway system at high density with no aeration. Three 4 L bottles were filled for each treatment, sealed hermetically, and placed in an enclosed greenhouse raceway system. Four shrimp (13.2±1.42 g) were assigned to two sets of the bottles, which underwent the following treatments: light conditions with no shrimp; dark conditions with no shrimp; light conditions with shrimp; and dark conditions with shrimp. Dissolved oxygen content was measured every 10 min for 30 min. A quadratic behavior was observed in dissolved oxygen concentration over time. Significant differences for oxigen consumption were observed only at 10 and 20 min between shrimp maintained in the dark and those under light conditions. At 10 min, a higher value was observed in shrimp maintained under light, and at 20 min, in the dark. Significant differences between 10 and 20 min and between 10 and 30 min were observed when oxygen consumption was analyzed over time in the presence of light. Under dark conditions there were significant differences only between 20 and 30 min. Lethal oxygen concentration (0.65 mg L-1) would be reached in less than one hour either under light or dark conditions with no aeration.

Salt tolerance and regulation of gas exchange and hormonal homeostasis by auxin-priming in wheat

The objective of this work was to assess the regulatory effects of auxin-priming on gas exchange and hormonal homeostasis in spring wheat subjected to saline conditions. Seeds of MH-97 (salt-intolerant) and Inqlab-91 (salt-tolerant) cultivars were subjected to 11 priming treatments (three hormones x three concentrations + two controls) and evaluated under saline (15 dS m-1) and nonsaline (2.84 dS m-1) conditions. The priming treatments consisted of: 5.71, 8.56, and 11.42 × 10-4 mol L-1 indoleacetic acid; 4.92, 7.38, and 9.84 × 10-4 mol L-1 indolebutyric acid; 4.89, 7.34, and 9.79 × 10-4 mol L-1 tryptophan; and a control with hydroprimed seeds. A negative control with nonprimed seeds was also evaluated. All priming agents diminished the effects of salinity on endogenous abscisic acid concentration in the salt-intolerant cultivar. Grain yield was positively correlated with net CO2 assimilation rate and endogenous indoleacetic acid concentration, and it was negatively correlated with abscisic acid and free polyamine concentrations. In general, the priming treatment with tryptophan at 4.89 × 10-4 mol L-1 was the most effective in minimizing yield losses and reductions in net CO2 assimilation rate, under salt stress conditions. Hormonal homeostasis increases net CO2 assimilation rate and confers tolerance to salinity on spring wheat.

LEAF GAS EXCHANGE CHARACTERISTICS OF FOUR PAPAYA GENOTYPES DURING DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT

In this research, was used four papaya (Carica papaya L.) genotypes: three from the 'Solo ( Sunrise Solo TJ, Sunrise Solo 72/12 and Baixinho de Santa Amália) group and one from the 'Formosa' group (Know-You 01). They were grown in plastic pots containing a sandy-clay-loam soil subjected to pH correction and fertilization, under greenhouse conditions. Throughout the experimental period plants were subjected to periodic irrigation to maintain the soil humitidy around field capacity. The experiment was conducted 73 days after sowing. In all genotypes, leaf gas exchange characteristics were determined. The net photosynthetic rate (A, mumol m-2 s-1 ), stomatal conductance (g s mol m-2 s-1), leaf temperature (T I, 0C) and intercellular carbon dioxide concentration (ci, muL L-1) on the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th leaves from the plant apex were determined. No significant differences were observed for A, g s, c i, or Tl either among the leaves sampled from any of the genotypes. A was positively correlated with g s and in the other hand T I and g s were negatively correlated. The results suggest that, for 73 DAP, all the sampled papaya leaves functioned as sources of organs.

Ion-exchange resins as stationary phase in reactive chromatography

Dynamic behavior of bothisothermal and non-isothermal single-column chromatographic reactors with an ion-exchange resin as the stationary phase was investigated. The reactor performance was interpreted by using results obtained when studying the effect of the resin properties on the equilibrium and kinetic phenomena occurring simultaneously in the reactor. Mathematical models were derived for each phenomenon and combined to simulate the chromatographic reactor. The phenomena studied includes phase equilibria in multicomponent liquid mixture¿ion-exchange resin systems, chemicalequilibrium in the presence of a resin catalyst, diffusion of liquids in gel-type and macroporous resins, and chemical reaction kinetics. Above all, attention was paid to the swelling behavior of the resins and how it affects the kinetic phenomena. Several poly(styrene-co-divinylbenzene) resins with different cross-link densities and internal porosities were used. Esterification of acetic acid with ethanol to produce ethyl acetate and water was used as a model reaction system. Choosing an ion-exchange resin with a low cross-link density is beneficial inthe case of the present reaction system: the amount of ethyl acetate as well the ethyl acetate to water mole ratio in the effluent stream increase with decreasing cross-link density. The enhanced performance of the reactor is mainly attributed to increasing reaction rate, which in turn originates from the phase equilibrium behavior of the system. Also mass transfer considerations favor the use ofresins with low cross-link density. The diffusion coefficients of liquids in the gel-type ion-exchange resins were found to fall rapidly when the extent of swelling became low. Glass transition of the polymer was not found to significantlyretard the diffusion in sulfonated PS¿DVB ion-exchange resins. It was also shown that non-isothermal operation of a chromatographic reactor could be used to significantly enhance the reactor performance. In the case of the exothermic modelreaction system and a near-adiabatic column, a positive thermal wave (higher temperature than in the initial state) was found to travel together with the reactive front. This further increased the conversion of the reactants. Diffusion-induced volume changes of the ion-exchange resins were studied in a flow-through cell. It was shown that describing the swelling and shrinking kinetics of the particles calls for a mass transfer model that explicitly includes the limited expansibility of the polymer network. A good description of the process was obtained by combining the generalized Maxwell-Stefan approach and an activity model that was derived from the thermodynamics of polymer solutions and gels. The swelling pressure in the resin phase was evaluated by using a non-Gaussian expression forthe polymer chain length distribution. Dimensional changes of the resin particles necessitate the use of non-standard mathematical tools for dynamic simulations. A transformed coordinate system, where the mass of the polymer was used as a spatial variable, was applied when simulating the chromatographic reactor columns as well as the swelling and shrinking kinetics of the resin particles. Shrinking of the particles in a column leads to formation of dead volume on top of the resin bed. In ordinary Eulerian coordinates, this results in a moving discontinuity that in turn causes numerical difficulties in the solution of the PDE system. The motion of the discontinuity was eliminated by spanning two calculation grids in the column that overlapped at the top of the resin bed. The reactive and non-reactive phase equilibrium data were correlated with a model derived from thethermodynamics of polymer solution and gels. The thermodynamic approach used inthis work is best suited at high degrees of swelling because the polymer matrixmay be in the glassy state when the extent of swelling is low.

Gas exchange, phisiological indexes and ionic accumulation in Annona emarginata (Schltdl.) H. Rainer seedlings in nutrients solution

"Araticum-de-terra-fria" (Annona emarginata (Schltdl.) H. Rainer) has been consider a good alternative in rootstock production for the main commercial Annonaceae species. Although this species develops in different soil and climate conditions, there is no understanding by the physiological responses of this species at different nutritional levels. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different ionic strengths on development of vegetative species known as "Araticum-de-terra-fria". It was evaluated in seedlings grown in different ionic strengths (25% I, 50% I, 75% I and 100% I) of the complete nutrient solution Hoagland and Arnon (1950) nº 2, for 140 days, the following characteristics: Gas Exchange (CO2 assimilation rate, stomatal conductance, internal CO2 concentration, transpiration rate, water use efficiency, Rubisco carboxylation efficiency); Vegetative growth characteristics (diameter, leaf number, dry matter); Physiological Indexes (leaf area ratio, specific leaf area, relative growth rate, net assimilation rate, leaf weight ratio) and Ionic Accumulation (nutrients leaf analysis). Seedlings grown under 50% I showed the highest values of Leaf CO2 assimilation rate, water use efficiency, carboxylation efficiency, growth, relative growth rate, net assimilation rate and ionic accumulation in the total dry matter. So it is concluded that "Araticum-de-terra-fria" seedlings grown under intermediate nutrient concentrations of complete nutrient solution Hoagland and Arnon (1950) nº 2, explored more adequately their physiological potential that justify their adaptation in different nutritional conditions and allow reducing the amount of mineral nutrition of seedlings production.