Helpless and lonely: Turkey's attitude towards the war in Syria. OSW Commentary No. 136, 09.05.2014

The conflict in Syria, which has lasted since 2011, has become the most significant test of the efficiency of Turkey’s foreign policy and the biggest challenge to Turkey’s security in recent decades. The lack of a clear prospect of an end to the war does not allow us to come to a final conclusion regarding the Syrian civil war’s importance for Turkey. However, it can be said today that with the exception of the initial phase of the conflict, Ankara’s influence over the course of events in Syria has been limited, and the war itself is evolving in a direction that is unfavourable for Turkey: the hostile regime of Bashar al-Assad is still in power, the opposition has proved to be an unreliable or even a dangerous ally, and in northern Syria militant jihadist groups and Kurds are gaining importance. It is also quite unlikely that the West will take any greater responsibility for stabilising the situation in the region. In response to such an unfortunate situation, and out of fear of risking deeper involvement in the conflict, during the past year Turkey’s policy towards Syria has been restrained, reactive and focused mainly on defending Turkey’s territory. However, this policy offers no security guarantees and does not prevent the country’s regional position from weakening, especially in the context of the reinforcement of the jihadist militants and the Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria. The arguments for Turkey continuing its defensive policy are strong: the country fears the possible results of an open confrontation with Assad’s forces; most probably it could not count on support for such actions from within its own society or its Western allies. It also does not have enough acceptance within the anti-Assad opposition circles. On the other hand, though, the risk of uncontrolled development of events is still present; the risk of confrontations with armed jihadist militants is growing; and the potential operation of Turkish forces, either against the jihadists or against Assad’s army, could be considered as a method of diverting attention from the political problems with which the AKP government has been struggling at home.

Russia’s Middle East policy after the Arab revolutions. OSW Commentary No. 59, 2011-07-26

Russia’s policy towards the Middle East is instrumental. Its activity in the region has been growing since the middle of the last decade, and its aim is to help Moscow achieve its objectives in other areas, particularly in its policies towards the US and Europe, as well as its energy policy. The establishment of these political influences constitutes a bargaining chip for Russia in its relations with the US. Russia’s participation in resolving conflicts is aimed at building up its image as a supra-regional power. Russia’s Middle East policy is a key element in its contacts with the Muslim world. At the same time, Russia’s policy in the region remains cautious – despite its return to the region, Russia has not decided to ‘play’ for the Middle East, and its position and role in the region remain limited. The balance of power in the Middle East has been shifting in the aftermath of the Arab revolutions. However, it does not seem that they have opened up larger opportunities for Russian policy in the region. The Russian elite has been divided in its assessment of the consequences of these events. One part of it has displayed scepticism, treating the revolutions rather as a threat than a chance to strengthen their own position. The revolutions were not seen as democratisation processes, but rather as a destabilisation of the region and as posing an increased danger from radical Islam. For the other part of the elite, the revolutions were the natural consequence of the social changes occurring in the region. This internal dispute made it difficult for Russia to present a cohesive approach to the Arab revolutions, and its stance was reactive. The defensive position which Moscow adopted showed that Russia did not have the potential to mould the political situation, either in the region as a whole or its individual countries; neither did it display any willingness to do so. What Moscow is doing is positioning itself in such a way so as not to spoil relations with any other actor in the region, and to be able to exploit any possible emerging opportunities in case of further-reaching changes.

Brexit – lessons from four referenda on the European Union (EU) in Denmark. EU Centre, Policy Brief No. 8, June 2015

From 1972 to 1993 Denmark staged four referenda on the EU. Two of them in particular hold valuable lessons for Britain seeking new terms - in June 1992 on the Treaty on European Union (Maastricht Treaty), the Danes voted “NO” with a slim majority; this was followed by another vote on the treaty in May 1993 on the Edinburgh Agreement with a “YES” vote. Joergen Oerstroem Moeller was directly involved in all four referenda and served 1989-1997 as State-Secretary in the Royal Danish Foreign Ministry. The result of a referendum may and often will be decided by policy decisions shaping the electorates’ perception long before the voting takes place. The majority votes according to instinct and intuition and is often guided by emotions. The Danish case highlights the importance of defining clearly specific exceptions, working hard to explain the case (at home and abroad), establishing good-will, and conveying that exceptions are in principle temporary and do not require treaty changes. The objectives laid out at the start of the process must be achievable. The member state in question should not manoeuvre itself into humiliating back-pedalling at the final negotiation round: if so it arouses suspicion among the electorate that it is being manipulated and deceived. During the campaign media attention will primarily focus on dissent and scepticism presenting the establishment with the tedious task of confuting accusations of all kinds. The YES camp will be pushed into the defensive by the NO camp setting the agenda. Time and effort and political capital needed to be invested for the positive outcome.

Morocco’s illiberal regime and fragmented political society. Arab Citizenship Review No. 10, October 2015

The post-Arab Spring period in Morocco has undergone different stages of changing state-society relations with regard to democracy, citizenship and human rights. The first stage, between February 2011 and the summer of 2013, was characterised by popular protests demanding democracy and freedom. People criticised public policies related to civil, political and social rights (employment, health, education, the status of women, and the issue of Amazigh). This outburst put the state in an awkward, defensive position. If we compare Morocco with the other Arab Spring countries, the Moroccan state’s reaction was moderate in its use of violence and repression, and it was positive, in that it resulted in the implicit, yet official acceptance of the demands for democracy, citizenship and battling corruption. In his speech on 9 March 2011, the king pledged to modify the Constitution and democratise the institutions.

Erick Anderson, UM Football, vs Illinois, 1988

Linebacker Anderson calls defensive signals, Alex Marshall (59) and Brent White (88) in line.

Ben Huff and Jarrett Irons, UM Football, vs Boston College, 1996

[l-r: defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, Ben Huff, Jarrett Irons]

Rich Hewlett, UM Football, vs Indiana 1983

[Hewlett switched to defensive back his junior year]

Monumens de l'histoire de France, en estampes et dessins ...

The present 30 volumes seem to have remained with the Dukes of Leuchtenberg, until the ducal library was acquired for sale in 1935 by the dealers Ulrich Hoepli (Milan) and Braus-Riggenbach (Basel). The volumes are not complete, as leaves have been wholly or partly removed throughout; this is particularly evident in preliminary volumes 2 and 10 and volume 75. Prints and the relatively small number of drawings are mostly French, with some German, Dutch and English, and are mostly of the 17th or 18th centuries. They are mounted generally on rectos of leaves, often with hand-written captions. Large prints are occasionally bound in directly; these are often folded. The engraved general title page (bearing the date 1788) appears at the beginning of each volume; below the printed title a hand-written volume number and brief title describing the volume's contents usually appear. In many volumes the title leaf is followed by a hand-written contents leaf listing the section titles, which are also written individually throughout the volume on leaves with etched decorative frames. Sections are numbered continuously throughout the work as a whole. Numbering of the leaves, when present, appears in black ink within each volume at top center recto. Printmakers include B. & J. Audran, Francesco Bartolozzi, Abraham Bosse, Stefano della Bella, Jacques Callot, François Chéreau, Wenceslaus Hollar, Romeyn de Hooghe, Raymond La Fage, Sébastien Le Clerc, Pierre Lepautre, Claude Mellan, Bernard Picart, and Simon Thomassin. There are also early color prints by Gautier-Dagoty and Jean-Baptiste Morret.

A topographical and historical description of the country of Southampton : containing an account of its towns, seats, antiquities, churches, public edifices, scenery, and residences of the nobility, gentry, &c. : accompanied with biographical notices of eminent and learned men to whom this county has given birth /

Includes bibliographical references.

Il salvatore co'dodici apostoli dappresso Raffaelle D'Vrbino : dipinti nella chiesa de' SS. Vincenzo ed Anastasio alle tre fontane fvori di porta S. Paolo e svlle stampe di Marcantonio /

Cover title.

I profeti e le sibille : dipinte nella Cappella Sistina da Michelangelo Buonarroti /

Cover title.

Certain letters of James Howell : selected from the Familiar letters as first published between 1645 & 1655.

Text within double red lines.

Special Adjudication For Enforcement (SAFE) - Seattle. Supplement. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

The chafing dish book.

Some recipes include wine or liquor as an ingredient. Sample recipes: Cheese omelet, Beef steak with wine sauce, Beignets de pommes.

Ricordi sacri aretini : raccolti e pubblicati /

Both copies: University of Illinois bookplate: "From the library of Conte Antonio Cavagna Sangiuliani di Gualdana Lazelada di Bereguardo, purchased 1921".