Concentration inequalities and laws of large numbers under epistemic and regular irrelevance

This paper presents concentration inequalities and laws of large numbers under weak assumptions of irrelevance that are expressed using lower and upper expectations. The results build upon De Cooman and Miranda`s recent inequalities and laws of large numbers. The proofs indicate connections between the theory of martingales and concepts of epistemic and regular irrelevance. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improving the tracking capability of adaptive filters via convex combination

As is well known, Hessian-based adaptive filters (such as the recursive-least squares algorithm (RLS) for supervised adaptive filtering, or the Shalvi-Weinstein algorithm (SWA) for blind equalization) converge much faster than gradient-based algorithms [such as the least-mean-squares algorithm (LMS) or the constant-modulus algorithm (CMA)]. However, when the problem is tracking a time-variant filter, the issue is not so clear-cut: there are environments for which each family presents better performance. Given this, we propose the use of a convex combination of algorithms of different families to obtain an algorithm with superior tracking capability. We show the potential of this combination and provide a unified theoretical model for the steady-state excess mean-square error for convex combinations of gradient- and Hessian-based algorithms, assuming a random-walk model for the parameter variations. The proposed model is valid for algorithms of the same or different families, and for supervised (LMS and RLS) or blind (CMA and SWA) algorithms.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Increased MMA concentration and body mass index are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women A pilot study

Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A valuation of patients` willingness-to-pay for insulin delivery in diabetes

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the insulin-delivery system and the attributes of insulin therapy that best meet patients` preferences, and to estimate patients` willingness-to-pay (WTP) for them. Methods: This was a cross-sectional discrete choice experiment (DCE) study involving 378 Canadian patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. Patients were asked to choose between two hypothetical insulin treatment options made up of different combinations of the attribute levels. Regression coefficients derived using conditional logit models were used to calculate patients` WTP. Stratification of the sample was performed to evaluate WTP by predefined subgroups. Results: A total of 274 patients successfully completed the survey. Overall, patients were willing to pay the most for better blood glucose control followed by weight gain. Surprisingly, route of insulin administration was the least important attribute overall. Segmented models indicated that insulin naive diabetics were willing to pay significantly more for both oral and inhaled short-acting insulin compared with insulin users. Surprisingly, type 1 diabetics were willing to pay $C11.53 for subcutaneous short-acting insulin, while type 2 diabetics were willing to pay $C47.23 to avoid subcutaneous short-acting insulin (p < .05). These findings support the hypothesis of a psychological barrier to initiating insulin therapy, but once that this barrier has been overcome, they accommodate and accept injectable therapy as a treatment option. Conclusions: By understanding and addressing patients` preferences for insulin therapy, diabetes educators can use this information to find an optimal treatment approach for each individual patient, which may ultimately lead to improved control, through improved compliance, and better diabetes outcomes.

Environmental Risk Factors for Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.

The predicate marker li in Mauritian Creole

There is a morpheme 'li' in Mauritian Creole (MC), which is homophonous with the 3sg pronoun, and which, in the early creole, occurs frequently between the subject and the predicate in affirmative, present tense clauses. I propose that that 'li' may have originated as a resumptive pronoun, co-referential with the subject, but following the grammaticalization of new determiner elements to mark the semantic contrasts of [±definite] and singular vs. plural, 'li' has now grammaticalized into a predicate marker. Its presence is sensitive to both the nature of the predicate, and to the definiteness and specificity features of the subject NP. My analysis is within the framework of Truth Conditional Semantics, where indefinite NPs are analyzed as variables that get introduced into the discourse, and must be bound by an operator to yield a closed proposition, with a truth value. Drawing on a comparison with a cognative morpheme 'i' in Seychellois Creole, I claim that its path to grammaticalization is linked to that of the specificity marking 'la'.

Saturation mutagenesis of the beta subunit of the human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor receptor shows clustering of constitutive mutations, activation of ERK MAP kinase and STAT pathways, and differential beta subunit tyrosine phosphoryl

The high-affinity receptors for human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), interleukin-1 (IL-3), and IL-5 are heterodimeric complexes consisting of cytokine-specific alpha subunits and a common signal-transducing beta subunit (h beta c). We have previously demonstrated the oncogenic potential of this group of receptors by identifying constitutively activating point mutations in the extracellular and transmembrane domains of h beta c. We report here a comprehensive screen of the entire h beta c molecule that has led to the identification of additional constitutive point mutations by virtue of their ability to confer factor independence on murine FDC-P1 cells. These mutations were clustered exclusively in a central region of h beta c that encompasses the extracellular membrane-proximal domain, transmembrane domain, and membrane-proximal region of the cytoplasmic domain. Interestingly, most h beta c mutants exhibited cell type-specific constitutive activity, with only two transmembrane domain mutants able to confer factor independence on both murine FDC-P1 and BAF-B03 cells. Examination of the biochemical properties of these mutants in FDC-P1 cells indicated that MAP kinase (ERK1/2), STAT, and JAK2 signaling molecules were constitutively activated. In contrast, only some of the mutant beta subunits were constitutively tyrosine phosphorylated. Taken together; these results highlight key regions involved in h beta c activation, dissociate h beta c tyrosine phosphorylation from MAP kinase and STAT activation, and suggest the involvement of distinct mechanisms by which proliferative signals can be generated by h beta c. (C) 1998 by The American Society of Hematology.

Outbreaks of pink wax scale, Ceroplastes rubens Maskell (Hemiptera : Coccidae), on umbrella trees in south-eastern Queensland: Patterns of parasitisation

The degree and distribution of parasitisation in relation to densities of pink wax scale, Ceroplastes rubens Maskell, on umbrella trees, Schefflera actinophylla (Endl.), in south-eastern Queensland were investigated to determine whether scale outbreaks could be attributed, in part, to low levels of parasitisation. Rates of parasitisation were independent of or inversely dependent on host density, and highly variable, especially at low densities. The absence of density dependent parasitisation may occur as a result of: (i) non-aggregation by parasitoids; (ii) aggregation by parasitoids where parasitisation is limited by intrinsic or extrinsic factors; and/or (iii) high rates of hyperparasitisation.

A cell type-specific constitutive point mutant of the common beta-subunit of the human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), interleukin (IL)-3, and IL-5 receptors requires the GM-CSF receptor alpha-subunit for activation

The high affinity receptor for human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) consists of a cytokine-specific alpha-subunit (hGMR alpha) and a common signal-transducing beta-subunit (hpc) that is shared with the interleukin-3 and -5 receptors, We have previously identified a constitutively active extracellular point mutant of hpc, I374N, that can confer factor independence on murine FDC-P1 cells but not BAF-B03 or CTLL-2 cells (Jenkins, B. J., D'Andrea, R. J., and Gonda, T. J. (1995) EMBO J. 14, 4276-4287), This restricted activity suggested the involvement of cell type-specific signaling molecules in the activation of this mutant. We report here that one such molecule is the mouse GMR alpha (mGMR alpha) subunit, since introduction of mGMR alpha, but not hGMR alpha, into BAF-B03 or CTLL-2 cells expressing the I374N mutant conferred factor independence, Experiments utilizing mouse/human chimeric GMR alpha subunits indicated that the species specificity lies in the extracellular domain of GMRa. Importantly, the requirement for mGMR alpha correlated with the ability of I374N (but not wild-type hpc) to constitutively associate with mGMRa. Expression of I374N in human factor-dependent UT7 cells also led to factor-independent proliferation, with concomitant up-regulation of hGMR alpha surface expression. Taken together, these findings suggest a critical role for association with GMR alpha in the constitutive activity of I374N.

A case-control study of employment status and mortality in a cohort of Australian youth

Recent studies have demonstrated a link in young populations between unemployment and ill health. The purpose of this study is to correlate mortality with employment status in two cohorts of young Australian males, aged 17-25 years, from 1984 to 1988. Two youth cohorts consisting of an initially unemployed sample (n = 1424 males) and a population sample (n = 4573 males), were surveyed annually throughout the study period. Those lost to follow-up during the survey period were matched with death registries across Australia. Employment status was determined from weekly diaries and death certificates and was designated as: employed or student; unemployed; not in the work force (excluding students). Conditional logistic regression, using age- and cohort- matched cases (deaths) and controls (alive), was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of dying with regard to employment status, taking into account potential confounders such as ethnicity, aboriginality, educational attainment, pre-existing health problems, socio-economic status of parents, and other factors. Twenty three male survey respondents were positively matched to death registry records. Compared to those employed or students (referent group), significantly elevated ORs were found to be associated with neither being in the workforce nor a student for all cause, external cause, and external cause mortality other than suicide. Odds ratios were adjusted for age, survey cohort, ethnicity, pre-existing physical and mental health status, education level, and socio-economic status of parent(s). A statistically significant increasing linear trend in odds ratios of male mortality for most cause groups was found across the employment categories, from those employed or student (lowest ORs), through those unemployed; to those not in the workforce (highest ORs). Suicide was higher, but not statistically significantly, in those unemployed or not in the workforce. Suicide also was associated, though not significantly, with the respondent not living with their parents when they were 14 years of age. No association was found between mortality and past unemployment experience, as measured by length of time spent unemployed, or the number of spells of unemployment experienced during the survey. The results of this study underscore the elevated risk to survival in young males as a consequence of being neither employed nor a student. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Myeloproliferative disorder and leukaemia in mice induced by different classes of constitutive mutants of the human IL-3/IL-5/GM-CSF receptor common beta subunit

Several constitutively active mutant forms of the common β subunit of the human IL-3, IL-5 and GM-CSF receptors (hβc), which enable it to signal in the absence of ligand, have recently been described. Two of these, V449E and I374N, are amino acid substitutions in the transmembrane and extracellular regions of hβc, respectively. A third, FIΔ, contains a 37 amino acid duplication in the extracellular domain. We have shown previously that when expressed in primary murine haemopoietic cells, the extracellular mutants confer factor-independence on cells of the neutrophil and monocyte lineages only, whereas V449E does so on all cell types of the myeloid and erythroid compartments. To study the in vivo effects and leukaemic potential of these mutants, we have expressed all three in mice by bone marrow reconstitution using retrovirally infected donor cells. Expression of the extracellular mutants leads to an early onset, chronic myeloproliferative disorder marked by elevations in the neutrophil, monocyte, erythrocyte and platelet lineages. In contrast, expression of V449E leads to an acute leukaemia-like syndrome of anaemia, thrombocytopaenia and blast cell expansion. These data support the possibility that activating mutations in hβc are involved in haemopoietic disorders in man.

Novel murine myeloid cell lines that exhibit a differentiation switch in response to IL-3 or GM-CSF, or to different constitutively active mutants of the CM-CSF receptor beta subunit

Several activating mutations have recently been described in the common beta subunit for the human interleukin(IL)-3, IL-5, and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) receptors (h beta c), Two of these, FI Delta and 1374N, result, respectively, in a 37-amino acid duplication and an isoleucine-to-asparagine substitution in the extracellular domain. A third, V449E, leads to valine-to-glutamic acid substitution in the transmembrane domain. Previous studies have shown that when expressed in murine hemopoietic cells in vitro, the extracellular mutants can confer factor independence on only the granulocyte-macrophage lineage while the transmembrane mutant can do so to all cell types of the myeloid and erythroid compartments. To further study the signaling properties of the constitutively active hpc mutants, we have used novel murine hemopoietic cell lines, which we describe in this report. These lines, FDB1 and FDB2, proliferate in murine IL-3 and undergo granulocyte-macrophage differentiation in response to murine GM-CSF, We find that while the transmembrane mutant, V449E, confers factor-independent proliferation on these cell lines, the extracellular hpc mutants promote differentiation. Hence, in addition to their ability to confer factor independence on distinct cell types, transmembrane and extracellular activated h beta c mutants deliver distinct signals to the same cell type. Thus, the FDB cell lines, in combination with activated h beta c mutants, constitute a powerful new system to distinguish between signals that determine hemopoietic proliferation or differentiation. (C) 2000 by The American Society of Hematology.