Limits on the validity of infinite length assumptions for modelling shallow landslides

The infinite slope method is widely used as the geotechnical component of geomorphic and landscape evolution models. Its assumption that shallow landslides are infinitely long (in a downslope direction) is usually considered valid for natural landslides on the basis that they are generally long relative to their depth. However, this is rarely justified, because the critical length/depth (L/H) ratio below which edge effects become important is unknown. We establish this critical L/H ratio by benchmarking infinite slope stability predictions against finite element predictions for a set of synthetic two-dimensional slopes, assuming that the difference between the predictions is due to error in the infinite slope method. We test the infinite slope method for six different L/H ratios to find the critical ratio at which its predictions fall within 5% of those from the finite element method. We repeat these tests for 5000 synthetic slopes with a range of failure plane depths, pore water pressures, friction angles, soil cohesions, soil unit weights and slope angles characteristic of natural slopes. We find that: (1) infinite slope stability predictions are consistently too conservative for small L/H ratios; (2) the predictions always converge to within 5% of the finite element benchmarks by a L/H ratio of 25 (i.e. the infinite slope assumption is reasonable for landslides 25 times longer than they are deep); but (3) they can converge at much lower ratios depending on slope properties, particularly for low cohesion soils. The implication for catchment scale stability models is that the infinite length assumption is reasonable if their grid resolution is coarse (e.g. >25?m). However, it may also be valid even at much finer grid resolutions (e.g. 1?m), because spatial organization in the predicted pore water pressure field reduces the probability of short landslides and minimizes the risk that predicted landslides will have L/H ratios less than 25. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Designing phase III or IV trials for vaccines: choosing between individual or cluster randomised trial designs.

The choice of design between individual randomisation, cluster or pseudo-cluster randomisation is often made difficult. Clear methodological guidelines have been given for trials in general practice, but not for vaccine trials. This article proposes a decisional flow-chart to choose the most adapted design for evaluating the effectiveness of a vaccine in large-scale studies. Six criteria have been identified: importance of herd immunity or herd protection, ability to delimit epidemiological units, homogeneity of transmission probability across sub-populations, population's acceptability of randomisation, availability of logistical resources, and estimated sample size. This easy to use decisional method could help sponsors, trial steering committees and ethical committees adopt the most suitable design.

Pot modificar un canvi urbanístic l'economia d'un barri? : El cas de Ciutat Vella i el cluster cultural

Tots hem sentit a parlar del canvi del Raval en aquests últims anys. Actualment la majoria del jovent no només hi estudia sinó que hi passa la major part del seu tempsd’oci, en bars, restaurants, museus, galeries d’art, comerços...Nosaltres ens hem preguntat: Per què el Raval ha canviat tant? S’han fet molts treballs, molts estudis, s’han intentat trobar les diverses causes que han produït aquest fenòmen.Més específicament ens hem preguntat: Pot ser que degut a la construcció del cluster cultural format pel MACBA i el CCCB, entre d’altres, s’hagi produït aquest canvi?Així doncs, en aquest treball intentarem contestar ambdues preguntes. Intentarem ser precisos, concisos, breus i clars; esperem que us resulti interessant.

On Certain Greedoid Polyhedra, Partially Indexable Scheduling Problems, and Extended Restless Bandit Allocation Indices

We present a polyhedral framework for establishing general structural properties on optimal solutions of stochastic scheduling problems, where multiple job classes vie for service resources: the existence of an optimal priority policy in a given family, characterized by a greedoid (whose feasible class subsets may receive higher priority), where optimal priorities are determined by class-ranking indices, under restricted linear performance objectives (partial indexability). This framework extends that of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996), which explained the optimality of priority-index policies under all linear objectives (general indexability). We show that, if performance measures satisfy partial conservation laws (with respect to the greedoid), which extend previous generalized conservation laws, then the problem admits a strong LP relaxation over a so-called extended greedoid polytope, which has strong structural and algorithmic properties. We present an adaptive-greedy algorithm (which extends Klimov's) taking as input the linear objective coefficients, which (1) determines whether the optimal LP solution is achievable by a policy in the given family; and (2) if so, computes a set of class-ranking indices that characterize optimal priority policies in the family. In the special case of project scheduling, we show that, under additional conditions, the optimal indices can be computed separately for each project (index decomposition). We further apply the framework to the important restless bandit model (two-action Markov decision chains), obtaining new index policies, that extend Whittle's (1988), and simple sufficient conditions for their validity. These results highlight the power of polyhedral methods (the so-called achievable region approach) in dynamic and stochastic optimization.

A neuropsychological instrument measuring age-related cerebral decline in older drivers: development, reliability, and validity of MedDrive.

When facing age-related cerebral decline, older adults are unequally affected by cognitive impairment without us knowing why. To explore underlying mechanisms and find possible solutions to maintain life-space mobility, there is a need for a standardized behavioral test that relates to behaviors in natural environments. The aim of the project described in this paper was therefore to provide a free, reliable, transparent, computer-based instrument capable of detecting age-related changes on visual processing and cortical functions for the purposes of research into human behavior in computational transportation science. After obtaining content validity, exploring psychometric properties of the developed tasks, we derived (Study 1) the scoring method for measuring cerebral decline on 106 older drivers aged ≥70 years attending a driving refresher course organized by the Swiss Automobile Association to test the instrument's validity against on-road driving performance (106 older drivers). We then validated the derived method on a new sample of 182 drivers (Study 2). We then measured the instrument's reliability having 17 healthy, young volunteers repeat all tests included in the instrument five times (Study 3) and explored the instrument's psychophysical underlying functions on 47 older drivers (Study 4). Finally, we tested the instrument's responsiveness to alcohol and effects on performance on a driving simulator in a randomized, double-blinded, placebo, crossover, dose-response, validation trial including 20 healthy, young volunteers (Study 5). The developed instrument revealed good psychometric properties related to processing speed. It was reliable (ICC = 0.853) and showed reasonable association to driving performance (R (2) = 0.053), and responded to blood alcohol concentrations of 0.5 g/L (p = 0.008). Our results suggest that MedDrive is capable of detecting age-related changes that affect processing speed. These changes nevertheless do not necessarily affect driving behavior.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Marijuana use, diet, body mass index, and cardiovascular risk factors (from the CARDIA study).

Marijuana use has been associated with increased appetite, high caloric diet, acute increase in blood pressure, and decreases in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. Marijuana is the most commonly used illicit drug in the United States, but its long-term effects on body mass index (BMI) and cardiovascular risk factors are unknown. Using 15 years of longitudinal data from 3,617 black and white young adults participating in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, we assessed whether marijuana use was associated with caloric intake, BMI, and cardiovascular risk factors. Of the 3,617 participants, 1,365 (38%) reported ever using marijuana. Marijuana use was associated with male gender, tobacco smoking, and other illicit drug use. More extensive marijuana use was associated with a higher caloric intake (2,746 kcal/day in never users to 3,365 kcal/day in those who used marijuana for > or = 1,800 days over 15 years) and alcohol intake (3.6 to 10.8 drinks/week), systolic blood pressure (112.7 to 116.5 mm Hg), and triglyceride levels (84 to 100 mg/dl or 0.95 to 1.13 mmol/L, all p values for trend < 0.001), but not with higher BMI and lipid and glucose levels. In multivariate analysis, the associations between marijuana use and systolic blood pressure and triglycerides disappeared, having been mainly confounded by greater alcohol use in marijuana users. In conclusion, although marijuana use was not independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors, it was associated with other unhealthy behaviors, such as high caloric diet, tobacco smoking, and other illicit drug use, which all have long-term detrimental effects on health.

Validity and reliability of a questionnaire on knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors for use in Brazil

Using a sample of patients with coronary artery disease, this methodological study aimed to conduct a cross-cultural adaptation and validation of a questionnaire on knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors (Q-FARCS), lifestyle changes, and treatment adherence for use in Brazil. The questionnaire has three scales: general knowledge of risk factors (RFs); specific knowledge of these RFs; and lifestyle changes achieved. Cross-cultural adaptation included translation, synthesis, back-translation, expert committee review, and pretesting. Face and content validity, reliability, and construct validity were measured. Cronbach’s alpha for the total sample (n = 240) was 0.75. Assessment of psychometric properties revealed adequate face and content validity, and the construct revealed seven components. It was concluded that the Brazilian version of Q-FARCS had adequate reliability and validity for the assessment of knowledge of cardiovascular RFs.

The relation of body mass index and abdominal adiposity with dyslipidemia in 27 general populations of the WHO MONICA Project.

The association between adiposity measures and dyslipidemia has seldom been assessed in a multipopulational setting. 27 populations from Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada (WHO MONICA project) using health surveys conducted between 1990 and 1997 in adults aged 35-64 years (n = 40,480). Dyslipidemia was defined as the total/HDL cholesterol ratio >6 (men) and >5 (women). Overall prevalence of dyslipidemia was 25% in men and 23% in women. Logistic regression showed that dyslipidemia was strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) in men and with waist circumference (WC) in women, after adjusting for region, age and smoking. Among normal-weight men and women (BMI<25 kg/m(2)), an increase in the odds for being dyslipidemic was observed between lowest and highest WC quartiles (OR = 3.6, p < 0.001). Among obese men (BMI ≥ 30), the corresponding increase was smaller (OR = 1.2, p = 0.036). A similar weakening was observed among women. Classification tree analysis was performed to assign subjects into classes of risk for dyslipidemia. BMI thresholds (25.4 and 29.2 kg/m(2)) in men and WC thresholds (81.7 and 92.6 cm) in women came out at first stages. High WC (>84.8 cm) in normal-weight men, menopause in women and regular smoking further defined subgroups at increased risk. standard categories of BMI and WC, or their combinations, do not lead to optimal risk stratification for dyslipidemia in middle-age adults. Sex-specific adaptations are necessary, in particular by taking into account abdominal obesity in normal-weight men, post-menopausal age in women and regular smoking in both sexes.

Ankle-Brachial Index: Nurses Strategy To Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors Identification

Elevated risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events is associated with high prevalence of peripheral arterial disease, with assessment through the ankle-brachial index (ABI). This study aimed to demonstrate that the ABI and the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire are tools to be used by nurses in prevention and/or treatment of CVD (cardiovascular disease). A cross-sectional study was carried out with patients from a cardiovascular clinic. The Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire was applied and the ABI was measured with the formula (ABI= Blood Pressure Ankle/Blood Pressure Brachial). A total of 115 patients were included, most were females (57.4%), aged 60.6 ± 12.5 years. The most prevalent risk factors were hypertension (64.3%), physical inactivity (48.7%) and family history (58.3%). The study showed that abnormal ABI was frequently found and 42.6% of the patients with abnormal ABI showed intermittent claudication. The method to evaluate the ABI associated to the Edinburg Claudication Questionnaire, can be easily used by nurses in the clinical evaluation of asymptomatic and symptomatic CVD patients.

Frequent clonal loss of heterozygosity but scarcity of microsatellite instability at chromosomal breakpoint cluster regions in adult leukemias.

Microsatellites are important highly polymorphic genetic markers dispersed in the human genome. Using a panel of 22 (CA)n repeat microsatellite markers mapped to recurrent breakpoint cluster regions specifically involved in leukemia, we investigated 114 adult leukemias (25 acute lymphocytic leukemia [ALL], 32 acute myeloid leukemia [AML], 36 chronic lymphocytic leukemia [CLL], and 21 chronic myeloid leukemia [CML] in chronic phase) for somatic mutations at these loci. In each patient, DNA from fresh leukemia samples was analyzed alongside normal constitutive DNA from buccal epithelium. We detected loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in 81 of 114 patients (ALL 16/25, AML 25/32, CLL 30/36, CML 10/21). Deletions were most often seen in ALL at 11q23 and 19p13; in AML at 8q22 and 11q23; in CLL at 13q14.3, 11q13, and 11q23; and in CML at 3q26. Only six deletions were reported in 74 karyotypes analyzed, whereas in these same cases, 91 LOH events were detected by microsatellites. Of 26 leukemias with a normal karyotype, 16 nevertheless showed at least one LOH by microsatellite analysis. Replication errors were found in 10 of 114 patients (8.8%). Thus, microsatellite instability is rare in leukemia in contrast to many solid tumors. Our findings suggest that in adult leukemia, LOH may be an important genetic event in addition to typical chromosomal translocations. LOH may point to the existence of tumor suppressor genes involved in leukemogenesis to a degree that has hitherto been underestimated.

Testing new identity models and processes in French-speaking adolescents and emerging adults students

Developing a sense of identity is a crucial psychosocial task for young people. The purpose of this study was to evaluate identity development in French-speaking adolescents and emerging adults (in France and Switzerland) using a process-oriented model of identity formation including five dimensions (i.e., exploration in breadth, commitment making, exploration in depth, identification with commitment, and ruminative exploration). The study included participants from three different samples (total N = 2239, 66.7% women): two samples of emerging adult student and one sample of adolescents. Results confirmed the hypothesized five-factor dimensional model of identity in our three samples and provided evidence for convergent validity of the model. The results also indicated that exploration in depth might be subdivided in two aspects: a first form of exploration in depth leading to a better understanding and to an increase of the strength of current commitments and a second form of exploration in depth leading to a re-evaluation and a reconsideration of current commitments. Further, the identity status cluster solution that emerged is globally in line with previous literature (i.e., achievement, foreclosure, moratorium, carefree diffusion, diffused diffusion, undifferentiated). However, despite a structural similarity, we found variations in identity profiles because identity development is shaped by cultural context. These specific variations are discussed in light of social, educational and economic differences between France and the French-speaking part of Switzerland. Implications and suggestions for future research are offered.