Regional change in the Algarve: A Geographic Information System approach

Thesis submitted to the Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Management – Geographic Information Systems

Hope, change, and the financial markets: Can Obama's public speeches drive the U.S. Stock Market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Structural change in the ruhr region: problems, potentials and developments

Due to the decline of the heavy industries in the Ruhr region, the area has to reinvent itself. The orientation towards service industries proves to be a difficult task for the district and its population. This paper examines the challenges, problems and potentials of the Ruhr region against the backdrop of its economical history out of a sociological perspective. Thereby the economical situation and its outcome towards the population stand in the foreground of the paper.

Reconstructing historical forest cover change in the Lower Amazon floodplains using the LandTrendr algorithm

ABSTRACTThe Amazon várzeas are an important component of the Amazon biome, but anthropic and climatic impacts have been leading to forest loss and interruption of essential ecosystem functions and services. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the capability of the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery (LandTrendr) algorithm to characterize changes in várzeaforest cover in the Lower Amazon, and to analyze the potential of spectral and temporal attributes to classify forest loss as either natural or anthropogenic. We used a time series of 37 Landsat TM and ETM+ images acquired between 1984 and 2009. We used the LandTrendr algorithm to detect forest cover change and the attributes of "start year", "magnitude", and "duration" of the changes, as well as "NDVI at the end of series". Detection was restricted to areas identified as having forest cover at the start and/or end of the time series. We used the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm to classify the extracted attributes, differentiating between anthropogenic and natural forest loss. Detection reliability was consistently high for change events along the Amazon River channel, but variable for changes within the floodplain. Spectral-temporal trajectories faithfully represented the nature of changes in floodplain forest cover, corroborating field observations. We estimated anthropogenic forest losses to be larger (1.071 ha) than natural losses (884 ha), with a global classification accuracy of 94%. We conclude that the LandTrendr algorithm is a reliable tool for studies of forest dynamics throughout the floodplain.

Sex, politics and social change in the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries: Evidence from the Swiss Alps

The 18th century "sexual revolution" can not simply be explained as a consequence of economic or institutional factors - industrialization, agricultural revolution, secularization or legal hindrances to marriages: the example of western Valais (Switzerland) shows that we have to deal with a complex configuration of factors The micro-historical approach reveals that in the 18th and 19th century sexuality - and above all illicit sexuality - was a highly subversive force which was considerably linked to political innovation and probably more generally to historical change. Non-marital sexuality was clearly tied to political dissent ant to innovative ways of behaviour, both among the social elites and the common people. This behaviour patterns influenced crucial evolutions in the social, cultural and economic history of the region.

Facilitation Process Concerning the Difficulties in Implementing A Vision For Change in the South Tipperary and Carlow Kilkenny Catchment Area Mental Health Service

Facilitation Process Concerning the Difficulties in Implementing A Vision For Change in the South Tipperary and Carlow Kilkenny Catchment Area Mental Health Service Click here to download PDF 4.27MB

Does the mechanical work in running change during the VO2 slow component?

PURPOSE: The origin of the slow component is not fully understood. The mechanical hypothesis is one of the potential factors, because an increase in external mechanical work with fatigue was previously reported for a constant velocity run. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a change in mechanical work could occur during the development of the VO2 slow component under the effect of fatigue. METHODS: Twelve regional-level competitive runners performed a square-wave transition, corresponding to 95% of the speed associated with peak VO2 obtained during an incremental test. The VO2 response was fit with a classical model including two exponential functions. A specific treadmill with three-dimensional force transducers was used to measure the ground reaction force. Kinetic work (W(kin)), potential work (W(pot)), external work (W(ext)), and an index of internal work (W(int)) per unit of distance were quantified continuously. RESULTS: During the slow component of VO2, a significant increase in W (P< 0.01), no change in W, and a significant decrease in W and W index (P< 0.05, P< 0.001, respectively) were observed. CONCLUSION: The present study showed that the slow component of VO2 did not result partly from a change in mechanical work under the effect of fatigue. Nevertheless, the decrease in stride frequency (P< 0.001) and contact time (P< 0.001) suggested an alternative mechanical explanation. The slow component during running may be due to the cost of generating force or to alterations in the storage and recoil of elastic energy, and not to the external mechanical work.

Early Cretaceous (late Berriasian to early Aptian) palaeoceanographic change along the northwestern Tethyan margin (Vocontian Trough, southeastern France): δ13C, δ18O and Sr-isotope belemnite and whole-rock records

Stable carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope records were obtained from uppermost Hauterivian to lowermost Aptian belemnite rostra, which were collected in well-dated sections from the Vocontian Trough (southeastern France). This data set complements previously published belemnite-isotope records from the uppermost Berriasian-Hauterivian interval from the same basin. The belemnite carbon and oxygen isotope record is compared to the carbonate bulk-rock isotope record from the same sections, and from additional Italian sections. With regards to their long-term trends, both belemnite and whole-rock delta O-18 records are well correlated, except for the uppermost Hauterivian-lower Barremian interval, within which they deviate. This discrepancy is interpreted to be linked to the latest Hauterivian Faraoni oceanic anoxic event and its early Barremian aftermath. The Faraoni level is characterized by enhanced sea-water stratification, probably induced by the onset of a warmer and more humid climate along the northern Tethyan margin. The early Barremian was characterized by stronger vertical sea-water mixing reflected by a decrease in density contrast between sea-surface and deeper waters. The belemnite oxygen isotope record shows a more stable evolution with smaller fluctuations than its bulk-rock counterpart, which indicates that deeper water masses were not as much subjected to density fluctuations as sea-surface water. The comparison of belemnite and bulk-rock carbon isotope records allows observing the impact of regional influence exerted by platform carbonate ooze shedding on the carbon cycle. Discrepancies in the two records are observed during time of photozoan carbonate platform growth. The strontium isotopic record shows a gradual increase from the uppermost Berriasian to the uppermost lower Barremian followed by a rapid decrease until the uppermost Barremian and a renewed small increase within the lowermost Aptian. The major inflection point in the uppermost lower Barremian appears to predate the onset in the formation of the Ontong-Java volcanic plateau.

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Financial Repression in a Natural Experiment: Loan Allocation and the Change in the Usury Laws in 1714

If financial deepening aids economic growth, then financial repression should be harmful. We use a natural experiment – the change in the English usury laws in 1714 – to analyze the effects of interest rate restrictions. We use a sample of individual loan transactions to demonstrate how the reduction of the legal maximum rate of interest affected the supply and demand for credit. Average loan size and minimum loan size increased strongly, and access to credit worsened for those with little ‘social capital.’ While we have no direct evidence that loans were misallocated, the discontinuity in loan receipts makes this highly likely. We conclude that financial repression can undermine the positive effects of financial deepening.

Skill-biased technological change and the business cycle

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States hasbeen biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles?We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identifyskill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions. Hours fallin response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that at least part of thetechnology-induced fall in total hours is due to a compositional shift in labordemand. Skill-biased technology shocks have no effect on the relative price ofinvestment, suggesting that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregateproduction.

Building adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change in the water sector in Cape Verde

Purpose of the evaluation This is a scheduled standard mid-term evaluation (MTR) of a UNDP implemented GEF LDCF co-financed project. It is conducted by a team of an international and a national independent evaluator. The objective of the MTR, as set out in the Terms of Reference (TORs; Annex 1), is to provide an independent analysis of the progress of the project so far. The MTR aims to: ï‚· identify potential project design problems, ï‚· assess progress towards the achievement of the project objective and outcomes, ï‚· identify and document lessons learned (including lessons that might improve design and implementation of other projects, including UNDP-GEF supported projects), and ï‚· make recommendations regarding specific actions that should be taken to improve the project. The MTR is intended to assess signs of project success or failure and identify the necessary changes to be made. The project commenced its implementation in the first half of 2010 with the recruitment of project staff. According to the updated project plan, it is due to close in July 201410 with operations scaling down in December 2013 due to funding limits. Because of a slow implementation start, the mid-term evaluation was delayed to July 201311 The intended target audience of the evaluation are: ï‚· The project team and decision makers in the INGRH ï‚· The GEF and UNFCCC Operational Focal Points ï‚· The project partners and beneficiaries ï‚· UNDP in Cape Verde as well as the regional and headquarter (HQ) office levels ï‚· The GEF Secretariat.

Recent human-induced trophic change in the large and deep perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland) compared to historical geochemical variations

This study investigates the sedimentological and geochemical changes that occurred during the last 2200 years in the meromictic Lake Lucerne (Switzerland), one of the largest freshwater lakes of Central Europe. The stable isotope composition (delta C-13 and delta O-18 values) of bulk carbonates is compared to changes in grain-size distribution (clay and silt fraction), natural trace element input (titanium and thorium concentrations), and organic material abundance (C-org, nitrogen and phosphorus) and composition (C/N ratios and hydrogen and oxygen indexes). A drop in carbonate accumulation and in the delta O-18 values of sediments between ca. AD 500 and 700 followed a large and consistent rise in chemical weathering, marked by increases in the silicate-clay fraction and in crustal element concentrations. During the following millennium, there was a long-term decreasing trend in the lithogenic trace element input and in the phosphorus loading, suggesting decreasing terrigeneous input from runoff water. The major sedimentological change over the studied period occurred after ca. AD 1800 with a significant increase in the erosion-driven silt-fraction and in the sedimentation rate. During the last century, human-induced increase in nutrient input to the lake highly enhanced the accumulation of organic matter in sediment. Changes in nutrients and oxygen conditions in the hypolimnion of Lake Lucerne during the eutrophication period (i.e., the last 40 years) highly modified the geochemical fluxes compared to the relatively stable oligotrophic conditions that prevailed during the previous 2000 years. Before the 19th century, climate driven meromixis had a limited impact on the organic matter flux to the sediments, but the accumulation of carbonate considerably decreased during periods of lower mechanical erosion rates and high chemical weathering rates. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.