887 resultados para Trajectories of victimization


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This study is focused on the dominance exerted by the invasive Argentine ant over native ants in a coastal Mediterranean area. Theimpact of this invasive ant on native ant assemblages and its consequences on total ant biomass and on the intensity of habitat explorationwere evaluated. Foraging ants were observed and their trajectories recorded during 5-minute periods in two study zones, one invaded andthe other non-invaded. Ant species detected, ant worker abundance, ant biomass and the intensity of soil surface searching done by antswere compared between the two zones. The Argentine ant invasion provoked a drastic reduction of the ant species richness. Apparentlyonly one native ant species is able to coexist with the Argentine ant, the cryptic Plagiolepis pygmaea. Ant worker abundance was also modified after the invasion: the number of Argentine ant workers detected, which represented 92% of the invaded zone, was two times higher than the number of native ant workers detected in the non-invaded zone. The total ant biomass was inversely affected, becoming four times lower in the invaded zone highly dominated by Linepithema humile. The higher number of Argentine ant workers and their fast tempo of activity implied an alteration of the intensity of soil surface searching: scanning by the Argentine ants in the invaded zone was higher than that done by the native ants in the non-invaded zone, and the estimated time for a complete soil surface scan was 64 minutes in the invaded zone and 108 minutes in the non-invaded zone. Consequently, resources will be discovered faster by ants in the invaded zone than in the non-invaded zone. The increase of the mean temperature and the decrease of the relative humidity from May to August reduced the ant activity in the two study zones but this reduction was greater in the invaded zone

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The age-old adage goes that nothing in this world lasts but change, and this generation has indeed seen changes that are unprecedented. Business managers do not have the luxury of going with the flow: they have to plan ahead, to think strategies that will meet the changing conditions, however stormy the weather seems to be. This demand raises the question of whether there is something a manager or planner can do to circumvent the eye of the storm in the future? Intuitively, one can either run on the risk of something happening without preparing, or one can try to prepare oneself. Preparing by planning for each eventuality and contingency would be impractical and prohibitively expensive, so one needs to develop foreknowledge, or foresight past the horizon of the present and the immediate future. The research mission in this study is to support strategic technology management by designing an effective and efficient scenario method to induce foresight to practicing managers. The design science framework guides this study in developing and evaluating the IDEAS method. The IDEAS method is an electronically mediated scenario method that is specifically designed to be an effective and accessible. The design is based on the state-of-the-art in scenario planning, and the product is a technology-based artifact to solve the foresight problem. This study demonstrates the utility, quality and efficacy of the artifact through a multi-method empirical evaluation study, first by experimental testing and secondly through two case studies. The construction of the artifact is rigorously documented as justification knowledge as well as the principles of form and function on the general level, and later through the description and evaluation of instantiations. This design contributes both to practice and foundation of the design. The IDEAS method contributes to the state-of-the-art in scenario planning by offering a light-weight and intuitive scenario method for resource constrained applications. Additionally, the study contributes to the foundations and methods of design by forging a clear design science framework which is followed rigorously. To summarize, the IDEAS method is offered for strategic technology management, with a confident belief that it will enable gaining foresight and aid the users to choose trajectories past the gales of creative destruction and off to a brighter future.

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According to the participant role approach (Salmivalli, Lagerspetz, Björkqvist, Österman, & Kaukiainen, 1996), bullying is a group phenomenon that is largely enabled and maintained by the classmates taking on different participant roles (e.g., reinforcers or assistants of the bully). There is, however, very little evidence on whether the bystander behaviors actually have an effect on the risk for victimization. Furthermore, the participant role approach implies that the bystanders should be used in putting an end to bullying. This view has been put into practice in the KiVa antibullying program, but it has not yet been investigated whether the program is effective. Four studies were conducted to investigate, (a) whether the behaviors of bystanders have an effect on the risk for victimization (Study I) and (b) whether the KiVa program reduces bullying and victimization and has other beneficial effects as well (Studies II–IV). The participants included large samples of elementary and lower secondary school students (Grades 1–9) from Finland. The assessments were done with web-based questionnaires including questions about bullying and victimization (both self- and peer reports), and about several bullying-related constructs. The results of this thesis suggest that bystander behaviors in bullying situations may influence the risk for victimization of vulnerable students. Moreover, the results indicate that the KiVa antibullying program is effective in reducing victimization and bullying. The program effects are larger in elementary schools than in lower secondary schools, whereas in Grades 8 and 9, they are larger for boys than girls for some peer-reported outcomes. The magnitude of the overall effects can be considered practically significant when obtained in a large-scale dissemination of the program.

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Children’s pain symptoms and sleep problems are among the most common health complaints. They distract children from activities, decrease the quality of life, contribute to a significant economic burden, and have shown continuity into adulthood. The main aims of this thesis were to investigate long-term changes in the prevalence of pain symptoms and sleep problems among Finnish school-aged children, and the later mental health of those who in childhood experience pain. Prevalence, co-occurrence, and associated psychosocial factors of pain symptoms and sleep problems were also assessed. In study I, prevalence changes in eight-year-old children’s pain symptoms and sleep problems were investigated in three cross-sectional population-based samples (years 1989: n=1038, 1999: n=1035, and 2005: n=1030). In study II, cross-sectional associations between pain symptoms, sleep problems, and psychosocial factors were assessed among 13-18-year-old adolescents (n=2476). In studies III and IV, associations between pain symptoms at age eight (n=6017), and register-based data on antidepressant use and severe suicidality by age 24, were examined in a nationwide birth cohort. Pain symptoms and sleep problems were common and often co-occurred. A considerable number of children’s pain symptoms remained unrecognized by the parents. The prevalence of pain symptoms, sleep problems, and multiple concurrent symptoms approximately doubled from 1989 to 2005. Psychiatric difficulties or demographic factors did not explain the increase. Psychosocial factors that were associated with pain, sleep problems, and a higher number of symptoms, were female sex, psychological difficulties, emotional symptoms, smoking, victimization, and feeling not cared about by teachers. In longitudinal analyses, the child’s own report of headache, and to a smaller degree the parental report of the child’s abdominal pain predicted later antidepressant use. Parental report of the child’s abdominal pain predicted severe suicidality among males. If one of the symptoms is present, health care professionals should inquire about other symptoms as well. Questions should be directed to the children, not only to their parents. Inquiring about psychiatric difficulties, substance use, victimization, and relations with teachers should be included as a part of the assessment. Further studies are needed to clarify the reasons that underlie the increased prevalence rates, and the factors that may increase or decrease the risk for later mental health problems among pain-suffering children.

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Bullying can be viewed as goal-oriented behavior in the strive for dominance and prestige in the peer group (Salmivalli, 2010). To ensure the effectiveness of their power demonstrations, bullies often choose targets from among their vulnerable peers (Salmivalli, 2010; Veenstra et al., 2007). A large number of studies have also shown that victimization has severe consequences for the victims’ psychosocial adjustment (Reijntjes, Kamphuis, Prinzie, & Telch, 2010; Ttofi, Farrington, Lösel, & Loeber, 2011). In this thesis I investigate – based on three empirical studies – whether similar dynamics on the risk factors and consequences apply to same- and other-sex victimization. In the empirical studies, we used the data from the randomized control trial of the KiVa antibullying program for the elementary school grades 4–6 (2007–2008), and for the middle school grades 7–9 (2008–2009). We measured same- and other-sex victimization, and victims’ defending relationships by dyadic questions: “By which classmates are you victimized?” and “By which classmates are you supported, comforted, or defended?” In addition, we used self-reports and peer reports to measure adjustment and social status. The findings imply that other-sex victimization may be challenging for antibullying work. First, although targets of bullying seemed to be selected from among vulnerable peers for the most part, perceived popularity increased the risks of other-sex victimization. Popularity of these victims may falsely lead to an impression that the victims are doing well. Second, the consequences considering victims’ later psychosocial adjustment were alarming concerning girls bullied by boys. Thus, despite the fact that the targets may be perceived as popular, other-sex victimization can have even more severe consequences than same-sex victimization. Third, we found that defending relationships were mostly same-sex relationships, and consequently, we may ask whether defending is effective against other-sex bullies. Finally, the KiVa antibullying program was less effective against other-sex victimization in the adolescent sample. The findings altogether emphasize the importance of taking into account the sex composition of the bully-victim dyad, both considering future research on bullying and in the antibullying work with children and adolescents.

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Stochastic differential equation (SDE) is a differential equation in which some of the terms and its solution are stochastic processes. SDEs play a central role in modeling physical systems like finance, Biology, Engineering, to mention some. In modeling process, the computation of the trajectories (sample paths) of solutions to SDEs is very important. However, the exact solution to a SDE is generally difficult to obtain due to non-differentiability character of realizations of the Brownian motion. There exist approximation methods of solutions of SDE. The solutions will be continuous stochastic processes that represent diffusive dynamics, a common modeling assumption for financial, Biology, physical, environmental systems. This Masters' thesis is an introduction and survey of numerical solution methods for stochastic differential equations. Standard numerical methods, local linearization methods and filtering methods are well described. We compute the root mean square errors for each method from which we propose a better numerical scheme. Stochastic differential equations can be formulated from a given ordinary differential equations. In this thesis, we describe two kind of formulations: parametric and non-parametric techniques. The formulation is based on epidemiological SEIR model. This methods have a tendency of increasing parameters in the constructed SDEs, hence, it requires more data. We compare the two techniques numerically.

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The dissertation proposes two control strategies, which include the trajectory planning and vibration suppression, for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, with the aim of attaining the satisfactory machining performance. For a given prescribed trajectory of the robot's end-effector in the Cartesian space, a set of trajectories in the robot's joint space are generated based on the best stiffness performance of the robot along the prescribed trajectory. To construct the required system-wide analytical stiffness model for the serial-parallel robot machine, a variant of the virtual joint method (VJM) is proposed in the dissertation. The modified method is an evolution of Gosselin's lumped model that can account for the deformations of a flexible link in more directions. The effectiveness of this VJM variant is validated by comparing the computed stiffness results of a flexible link with the those of a matrix structural analysis (MSA) method. The comparison shows that the numerical results from both methods on an individual flexible beam are almost identical, which, in some sense, provides mutual validation. The most prominent advantage of the presented VJM variant compared with the MSA method is that it can be applied in a flexible structure system with complicated kinematics formed in terms of flexible serial links and joints. Moreover, by combining the VJM variant and the virtual work principle, a systemwide analytical stiffness model can be easily obtained for mechanisms with both serial kinematics and parallel kinematics. In the dissertation, a system-wide stiffness model of a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine is constructed based on integration of the VJM variant and the virtual work principle. Numerical results of its stiffness performance are reported. For a kinematic redundant robot, to generate a set of feasible joints' trajectories for a prescribed trajectory of its end-effector, its system-wide stiffness performance is taken as the constraint in the joints trajectory planning in the dissertation. For a prescribed location of the end-effector, the robot permits an infinite number of inverse solutions, which consequently yields infinite kinds of stiffness performance. Therefore, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm in which the positions of redundant joints in the kinematics are taken as input variables was employed to search for the best stiffness performance of the robot. Numerical results of the generated joint trajectories are given for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, IWR (Intersector Welding/Cutting Robot), when a particular trajectory of its end-effector has been prescribed. The numerical results show that the joint trajectories generated based on the stiffness optimization are feasible for realization in the control system since they are acceptably smooth. The results imply that the stiffness performance of the robot machine deviates smoothly with respect to the kinematic configuration in the adjacent domain of its best stiffness performance. To suppress the vibration of the robot machine due to varying cutting force during the machining process, this dissertation proposed a feedforward control strategy, which is constructed based on the derived inverse dynamics model of target system. The effectiveness of applying such a feedforward control in the vibration suppression has been validated in a parallel manipulator in the software environment. The experimental study of such a feedforward control has also been included in the dissertation. The difficulties of modelling the actual system due to the unknown components in its dynamics is noticed. As a solution, a back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed for identification of the unknown components of the dynamics model of the target system. To train such a BP neural network, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that can utilize an experimental input-output data set of the entire dynamic system is introduced in the dissertation. Validation of the BP neural network and the modified Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm is done, respectively, by a sinusoidal output approximation, a second order system parameters estimation, and a friction model estimation of a parallel manipulator, which represent three different application aspects of this method.

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The aim of this study was to examine community and individual approaches in responses to mass violence after the school shooting incidents in Jokela (November 2007) and Kauhajoki (September 2008), Finland. In considering the community approach, responses to any shocking criminal event may have integrative, as well as disintegrative effects, within the neighborhood. The integration perspective argues that a heinous criminal event within one’s community is a matter of offence to collectively held feelings and beliefs, and increases perceived solidarity; whereas the disintegration perspective suggests that a criminal event weakens the social fabric of community life by increasing fear of crime and mistrust among locals. In considering the individual approach, socio-demographic factors, such as one’s gender, are typically significant indicators, which explain variation in fear of crime. Beyond this, people are not equally exposed to violent crime and therefore prior victimization and event related experiences may further explain why people differ in their sensitivity to risk from mass violence. Finally, factors related to subjective mental health, such as depressed mood, are also likely to moderate individual differences in responses to mass violence. This study is based on the correlational design of four independent cross-sectional postal surveys. The sampling frames (N=700) for the surveys were the Finnish speaking adult population aged 18–74-years. The first mail survey in Jokela (n=330) was conducted between May and June 2008, approximately six months from the shooting incident at the local high-school. The second Jokela survey (n=278) was conducted in May–June of 2009, 18 months removed from the incident. The first survey in Kauhajoki (n=319) was collected six months after the incident at the local University of Applied Sciences, March– April 2009, and the second (n=339) in March–April 2010, approximately 18 months after the event. Linear and ordinal regression and path analysis are used as methods of analyses. The school shootings in Jokela and Kauhajoki were extremely disturbing events, which deeply affected the communities involved. However, based on the results collected, community responses to mass violence between the two localities were different. An increase in social solidarity appears to apply in the case of the Jokela community, but not in the case of the Kauhajoki community. Thus a criminal event does not necessarily impact the wider community. Every empirical finding is most likely related to different contextual and event-specific factors. Beyond this, community responses to mass violence in Jokela also indicated that the incident was related to a more general sense of insecurity and was also associating with perceived community deterioration and further suggests that responses to mass violence may have both integrating and disintegrating effects. Moreover, community responses to mass violence should also be examined in relation to broader social anxieties and as a proxy for generalized insecurity. Community response is an emotive process and incident related feelings are perhaps projected onto other identifiable concerns. However, this may open the door for social errors and, despite integrative effects, this may also have negative consequences within the neighborhood. The individual approach suggests that women are more fearful than men when a threat refers to violent crime. Young women (aged 18–34) were the most worried age and gender group as concerns perception of threat from mass violence at schools compared to young men (aged 18–34), who were also the least worried age and gender group when compared to older men. It was also found that concerns about mass violence were stronger among respondents with the lowest level of monthly household income compared to financially better-off respondents. Perhaps more importantly, responses to mass violence were affected by the emotional proximity to the event; and worry about the recurrence of school shootings was stronger among respondents who either were a parent of a school-aged child, or knew a victim. Finally, results indicate that psychological wellbeing is an important individual level factor. Respondents who expressed depressed mood consistently expressed their concerns about mass violence and community deterioration. Systematic assessments of the impact of school shooting events on communities are therefore needed. This requires the consolidation of community and individual approaches. Comparative study designs would further benefit from international collaboration across disciplines. Extreme school violence has also become a national concern and deeper understanding of crime related anxieties in contemporary Finland also requires community-based surveys.

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In the present study, we modeled a reaching task as a two-link mechanism. The upper arm and forearm motion trajectories during vertical arm movements were estimated from the measured angular accelerations with dual-axis accelerometers. A data set of reaching synergies from able-bodied individuals was used to train a radial basis function artificial neural network with upper arm/forearm tangential angular accelerations. The trained radial basis function artificial neural network for the specific movements predicted forearm motion from new upper arm trajectories with high correlation (mean, 0.9149-0.941). For all other movements, prediction was low (range, 0.0316-0.8302). Results suggest that the proposed algorithm is successful in generalization over similar motions and subjects. Such networks may be used as a high-level controller that could predict forearm kinematics from voluntary movements of the upper arm. This methodology is suitable for restoring the upper limb functions of individuals with motor disabilities of the forearm, but not of the upper arm. The developed control paradigm is applicable to upper-limb orthotic systems employing functional electrical stimulation. The proposed approach is of great significance particularly for humans with spinal cord injuries in a free-living environment. The implication of a measurement system with dual-axis accelerometers, developed for this study, is further seen in the evaluation of movement during the course of rehabilitation. For this purpose, training-related changes in synergies apparent from movement kinematics during rehabilitation would characterize the extent and the course of recovery. As such, a simple system using this methodology is of particular importance for stroke patients. The results underlie the important issue of upper-limb coordination.

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Genetic, Prenatal and Postnatal Determinants of Weight Gain and Obesity in Young Children – The STEPS Study University of Turku, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Paediatrics, University of Turku Doctoral Program of Clinical Investigation (CLIPD), Turku Institute for Child and Youth Research. Conditions of being overweight and obese in childhood are common health problems with longlasting effects into adulthood. Currently 22% of Finnish boys and 12% of Finnish girls are overweight and 4% of Finnish boys and 2% of Finnish girls are obese. The foundation for later health is formed early, even before birth, and the importance of prenatal growth on later health outcomes is widely acknowledged. When the mother is overweight, had high gestational weight gain and disturbances in glucose metabolism during pregnancy, an increased risk of obesity in children is present. On the other hand, breastfeeding and later introduction of complementary foods are associated with a decreased obesity risk. In addition to these, many genetic and environmental factors have an effect on obesity risk, but the clustering of these factors is not extensively studied. The main objective of this thesis was to provide comprehensive information on prenatal and early postnatal factors associated with weight gain and obesity in infancy up to two years of age. The study was part of the STEPS Study (Steps to Healthy Development), which is a follow-up study consisting of 1797 families. This thesis focused on children up to 24 months of age. Altogether 26% of boys and 17% of girls were overweight and 5% of boys and 4% of girls were obese at 24 months of age according to New Finnish Growth references for Children BMI-for-age criteria. Compared to children who remained normal weight, the children who became overweight or obese showed different growth trajectories already at 13 months of age. The mother being overweight had an impact on children’s birth weight and early growth from birth to 24 months of age. The mean duration of breastfeeding was almost 2 months shorter in overweight women in comparison to normal weight women. A longer duration of breastfeeding was protective against excessive weight gain, high BMI, high body weight and high weight-for-length SDS during the first 24 months of life. Breast milk fatty acid composition differed between overweight and normal weight mothers, and overweight women had more saturated fatty acids and less n-3 fatty acids in breast milk. Overweight women also introduced complementary foods to their infants earlier than normal weight mothers. Genetic risk score calculated from 83 obesogenic- and adiposity-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed that infants with a high genetic risk for being overweight and obese were heavier at 13 months and 24 months of age than infants with a low genetic risk, thus possibly predisposing to later obesity in obesogenic environment. Obesity Risk Score showed that children with highest number of risk factors had almost 6-fold risk of being overweight and obese at 24 months compared to children with lowest number of risk factors. The accuracy of the Obesity Risk Score in predicting overweight and obesity at 24 months was 82%. This study showed that many of the obesogenic risk factors tend to cluster within children and families and that children who later became overweight or obese show different growth trajectories already at a young age. These results highlight the importance of early detection of children with higher obesity risk as well as the importance of prevention measures focused on parents. Keywords: Breastfeeding, Child, Complementary Feeding, Genes, Glucose metabolism, Growth, Infant Nutrition Physiology, Nutrition, Obesity, Overweight, Programming

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The current study examined the association between involvement in bullying and victimization and internalizing difficulties such as self-esteem, social anxiety, depression and body image. Possible gender differences were also examined. The participants, high school students from Southern Ontario (N=533), were drawn from a larger, data set as part ofa study that was completed by the Youth Lifestyle Choices: Community Research Alliance (YLCCURA). The students completed a self-report questionnaire on a number ofmeasures; including, bullying, victimization, self-esteem, social anxiety, depression and body image. The results of this study suggest that those students who self-identified as victims and bully-victims also report higher levels of anxiety and depression than controls and bullies. Severe victims and bullyvictims had a lower body image than severe bullies and controls, whereas severe bullies seem to have a higher body image score than controls. These results are relevant when considering treatments and interventions for students experiencing adjustment difficulties who may also be at risk for bullying victimization. The results also suggest that particular attention needs to be focused on those adolescents who play multi-roles in bullying situations (i.e., bully-victims), since these students may come to the attention ofthe school system for externalizing behaviours, but may also need assistance for internalizing maladjustments.

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Young carers (YCs) who provide prolonged care for ill, disabled, or addicted family member(s) face a tremendous risk for negative developmental trajectories when remaining hidden (Charles, Stainton, & Marshall, 2009; Charles, 2011; Cass, 2007). Despite a growing recognition of YCs, understanding how providing care impacts a young person is not fully understood. The present study aimed to investigate circumstantial, family, and individual factors which may be associated with YCs’ caregiving role. By comparing YCs to a normative sample, a comprehensive YC profile was formed. A secondary comparative analysis was conducted on 124 YCs (72 females and 52 males, Mage = 12) and a normative sample (n = 124) matched on YCs’ age, gender, and number of siblings within the family. Unique attributes of the YC population were discussed, thereby creating a YC profile. Future research may be able to use this profile to promote identification and recognition of YCs.

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Les mouvements nationalistes flamands et québécois divergent en concernant leur structure; par exemple le nationalisme flamand s'est développé comme un mouvement chrétien-démocrate, alors que le nationalisme québécois contemporain s’est galvanisé autour d'une idéologie laïque de gauche. Par ailleurs, il existe un contraste entre les poids sociodémographique, politique et économique portés par la région de Flandres en Belgique, et ceux portés dans la province du Québec au Canada. Cependant, malgré les influences divergentes structurelles et systémiques, les mouvements nationalistes flamand et québécois ont développé et maintenu des profils très similaires. Par exemple, les deux mouvements nationalistes se définissent par une distinction ethnolinguistique, les deux ont un discours nationaliste parallèle axé sur la nécessité de préserver et de protéger la langue et la culture de la communauté nationale, et les deux se concentrent sur l'obtention d'une redistribution des pouvoirs culturels et politiques. Dans ce mémoire, nous proposons que le profil nationaliste ressemblant du mouvement nationaliste flamand et québécois puisse être expliqué par le développement d'un « nationalisme ethnolinguistique de contestation », qui était initialement mis en place par les nationalistes flamands et québécois cherchant à corriger les effets d'une « division culturelle du travail ». Ce sentiment d’un nationalisme de contestation ethnolinguistique est instrumentalisé et perpétué par les nationalistes flamands et québécois en évoquant certains « souvenirs partagés », qui sont trouvés dans le récit historique de la communauté nationale. Ces souvenirs partagés, ainsi que leurs représentations symboliques, reflètent les sentiments de protestation, injustice et victimisation, qui sont vitaux pour les nationalistes flamands et québécois dans le maintien de leur expression parallèlement à un nationalisme de contestation ethnolinguistique en Flandres et au Québec.

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Les estimations des mouvements de soi provenant des signaux vestibulaires contribuent à la planification et l’exécution des mouvements volontaires du bras lorsque le corps se déplace. Cependant, comme les senseurs vestibulaires sont fixés à la tête alors que le bras est fixé au corps, les signaux vestibulaires doivent être transformés d’un système de référence centré sur la tête à un système centré sur le corps pour pouvoir contribuer de façon appropriée au contrôle moteur du bras. Le but premier de ce travail était d’étudier l’évidence d’une telle transformation. La stimulation galvanique vestibulaire (SGV) a été utilisée pour activer les afférences vestibulaires et simuler une rotation autour d’un axe naso-occipital fixe pendant que des sujets humains faisaient des mouvements du bras dans le plan horizontal, avec la tête dans différentes orientations. Une transformation des signaux vestibulaires implique que la SVG devrait simuler une rotation autour d’un axe horizontal lorsque la tête est droite et autour d’un axe vertical lorsque la tête est en flexion antérieure. La SGV devrait ainsi perturber les mouvements du bras en fonction de l’orientation de la tête. Nos résultats démontrent que les signaux vestibulaires contribuant aux mouvements d’atteinte sont effectivement transformés en un système de référence centrée sur le corps. Le deuxième but de ce travail était d’explorer les mécanismes utilisant ces signaux vestibulaires transformés. En comparant les effets de la SGV appliquée avant ou pendant les mouvements d’atteinte nous avons montré que les signaux vestibulaires transformés contribuent à des mécanismes de compensation distincts durant la planification des mouvements d’atteinte comparativement à l’exécution.

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En mai 2009, l’Ontario a adopté la Loi sur l’énergie verte et devint ainsi la première juridiction en Amérique du Nord à promouvoir l’énergie renouvelable par le biais de tarifs de rachat garantis. En novembre 2010, dans son Plan énergétique à long terme, la province s’est engagée à déployer 10,700 MW en capacité de production d’énergie renouvelable non-hydroélectrique par 2018. Il s’agit de la cible de déploiement la plus élevée dans ce secteur au Canada. Les infrastructures de production et de distribution d’électricité comprennent des coûts d’installation élevés, une faible rotation des investissements et de longs cycles de vie, facteurs qui servent habituellement à ancrer les politiques énergétiques dans une dynamique de dépendance au sentier. Depuis le début des années 2000, cependant, l’Ontario a commencé à diverger de sa traditionnelle dépendance aux grandes centrales hydroélectriques, aux centrales à charbon et aux centrales nucléaires par une série de petits changements graduels qui feront grimper la part d’énergie renouvelable dans le mix énergétique provincial à 15% par 2018. Le but de ce mémoire est d’élucider le mécanisme de causalité qui a sous-tendu l’évolution graduelle de l’Ontario vers la promotion de l’énergie renouvelable par le biais de tarifs de rachat garantis et d’une cible de déploiement élevée. Ce mémoire applique la théorie du changement institutionnel graduel de Mahoney et Thelen au cas du développement de politiques d’énergie renouvelable en Ontario afin de mieux comprendre les causes, les modes et les effets du changement institutionnel. Nous découvrons que le contexte canadien de la politique énergétique favorise la sédimentation institutionnelle, c’est-à-dire un mode changement caractérisé par de petits gains favorisant l’énergie renouvelable. Ces gains s’accumulent pourtant en transformation politique importante. En Ontario, la mise sur pied d’une vaste coalition pour l’énergie renouvelable fut à l’origine du changement. Les premiers revendicateurs de politiques favorisant l’énergie renouvelable – les environnementalistes et les premières entreprises d’approvisionnement et de service en technologies d’énergie renouvelable – ont dû mettre sur pied un vaste réseau d’appui, représentant la quasi-totalité de la société ontarienne, pour faire avancer leur cause. Ce réseau a fait pression sur le gouvernement provincial et, en tant que front commun, a revendiqué l’énergie renouvelable non seulement comme solution aux changements climatiques, mais aussi comme solution à maints autres défis pressants de santé publique et de développement économique. La convergence favorable d’un nombre de facteurs contextuels a certes contribué à la réussite du réseau ontarien pour l’énergie renouvelable. Cependant, le fait que ce réseau ait trouvé des alliés au sein de l’exécutif du gouvernement provincial s’est révélé d’importance cruciale quant à l’obtention de politiques favorisant l’énergie renouvelable. Au Canada, les gouvernements provinciaux détiennent l’ultime droit de veto sur la politique énergétique. Ce n’est qu’en trouvant des alliés aux plus hauts échelons du gouvernement que le réseau ontarien pour l’énergie renouvelable a pu réussir.