908 resultados para Taxas de juros - Brasil - Modelos econométricos
Resumo:
O tema Governana de Tecnologia da Informao (GTI) tornou-se mais premente no ambiente empresarial brasileiro, principalmente aps as repercusses mundiais ocorridas com a queda da bolsa de valores americana Nasdaq, com a nova configurao mundial aps os ataques aos Estados Unidos em 11 de setembro de 2001 e a partir da promulgao da Lei Sarbanes-Oxley em 2002. Esse modelo de gesto tem sido implementado por organizaes que buscam no somente obter melhor controle de gesto em Tecnologia da Informao, como para aquelas que tm de atender s conformidades legais exigidas pelos rgos de controle. Implement-la um processo complexo e desafiador em virtude da necessidade de se identificar o melhor modelo de GTI dentre as prticas existentes no mundo empresarial. As empresas precisam fazer uma composio daquelas que melhor se aderem s suas realidades. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar os modelos de GTI adotados em organizaes no Brasil, avaliar os seus resultados, seus nveis de maturidade, os seus benefcios, suas dificuldades e suas tendncias, contribuindo assim para o seu melhor entendimento e para amenizar a carncia de estudos nessa rea no Brasil. Este estudo, que de natureza emprica, baseou-se na metodologia de estudo de casos mltiplos realizado em cinco empresas para explorar como este modelo de gesto vem sendo adotado, quais estruturas, metodologias e prticas de mercado tm sido utilizadas para a sua efetividade. Neste contexto, apresentam-se os resultados obtidos, os aspectos que envolvem a implementao dos modelos de GTI nas organizaes, as dificuldades encontradas, o que tm condicionado o seu desempenho e suas tendncias.
Resumo:
As empresas que almejam garantir e melhorar sua posio dentro de em um mercado cada vez mais competitivo precisam estar sempre atualizadas e em constante evoluo. Na busca contnua por essa evoluo, investem em projetos de Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento (P&D) e em seu capital humano para promover a criatividade e a inovao organizacional. As pessoas tm papel fundamental no desenvolvimento da inovao, mas para que isso possa florescer de forma constante preciso comprometimento e criatividade para a gerao de ideias. Criatividade pensar o novo; inovao fazer acontecer. Porm, encontrar pessoas com essas qualidades nem sempre tarefa fcil e muitas vezes preciso estimular essas habilidades e caractersticas para que se tornem efetivamente criativas. Os cursos de graduao podem ser uma importante ferramenta para trabalhar esses aspectos, caractersticas e habilidades, usando mtodos e prticas de ensino que auxiliem no desenvolvimento da criatividade, pois o ambiente ensino-aprendizagem pesa significativamente na formao das pessoas. O objetivo deste estudo de identificar quais fatores tm maior influncia sobre o desenvolvimento da criatividade em um curso de graduao em administrao, analisando a influncia das prticas pedaggicas dos docentes e as barreiras internas dos discentes. O referencial terico se baseia principalmente nos trabalhos de Alencar, Fleith, Torrance e Wechsler. A pesquisa transversal de abordagem quantitativa teve como pblico-alvo os alunos do curso de Administrao de uma universidade confessional da Grande So Paulo, que responderam 465 questionrios compostos de trs escalas. Para as prticas docentes foi adaptada a escala de Prticas Docentes em relao Criatividade. Para as barreiras internas foi adaptada a escala de Barreiras da Criatividade Pessoal. Para a anlise da percepo do desenvolvimento da criatividade foi construda e validada uma escala baseada no referencial de caractersticas de uma pessoa criativa. As anlises estatsticas descritivas e fatoriais exploratrias foram realizadas no software Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), enquanto as anlises fatoriais confirmatrias e a mensurao da influncia das prticas pedaggicas e das barreiras internas sobre a percepo do desenvolvimento da criatividade foram realizadas por modelagem de equao estrutural utilizando o algoritmo Partial Least Squares (PLS), no software Smart PLS 2.0. Os resultados apontaram que as prticas pedaggicas e as barreiras internas dos discentes explicam 40% da percepo de desenvolvimento da criatividade, sendo as prticas pedaggicas que exercem maior influencia. A pesquisa tambm apontou que o tipo de temtica e o perodo em que o aluno est cursando no tm influncia sobre nenhum dos trs construtos, somente o professor influencia as prticas pedaggicas.
Resumo:
In this thesis used four different methods in order to diagnose the precipitation extremes on Northeastern Brazil (NEB): Generalized Linear Model s via logistic regression and Poisson, extreme value theory analysis via generalized extre me value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GPD) distributions and Vectorial Generalized Linea r Models via GEV (MVLG GEV). The logistic regression and Poisson models were used to identify the interactions between the precipitation extremes and other variables based on the odds ratios and relative risks. It was found that the outgoing longwave radiation was the indicator variable for the occurrence of extreme precipitation on eastern, northern and semi arid NEB, and the relative humidity was verified on southern NEB. The GEV and GPD distribut ions (based on the 95th percentile) showed that the location and scale parameters were presented the maximum on the eastern and northern coast NEB, the GEV verified a maximum core on western of Pernambuco influenced by weather systems and topography. The GEV and GPD shape parameter, for most regions the data fitted by Weibull negative an d Beta distributions ( < 0) , respectively. The levels and return periods of GEV (GPD) on north ern Maranho (centerrn of Bahia) may occur at least an extreme precipitation event excee ding over of 160.9 mm /day (192.3 mm / day) on next 30 years. The MVLG GEV model found tha t the zonal and meridional wind components, evaporation and Atlantic and Pacific se a surface temperature boost the precipitation extremes. The GEV parameters show the following results: a) location ( ), the highest value was 88.26 6.42 mm on northern Maran ho; b) scale ( ), most regions showed positive values, except on southern of Maranho; an d c) shape ( ), most of the selected regions were adjusted by the Weibull negative distr ibution ( < 0 ). The southern Maranho and southern Bahia have greater accuracy. The level period, it was estimated that the centern of Bahia may occur at least an extreme precipitatio n event equal to or exceeding over 571.2 mm/day on next 30 years.
Resumo:
A practical approach to estimate rock thermal conductivities is to use rock models based just on the observed or expected rock mineral content. In this study, we evaluate the performances of the Krischer and Esdorn (KE), Hashin and Shtrikman (HS), classic Maxwell (CM), Maxwell-Wiener (MW), and geometric mean (GM) models in reproducing the measures of thermal conductivity of crystalline rocks.We used 1,105 samples of igneous and metamorphic rocks collected in outcroppings of the Borborema Province, Northeastern Brazil. Both thermal conductivity and petrographic modal analysis (percent volumes of quartz, K-feldspar, plagioclase, and sum of mafic minerals) were done. We divided the rocks into two groups: (a) igneous and ortho-derived (or meta-igneous) rocks and (b) metasedimentary rocks. The group of igneous and ortho-derived rocks (939 samples) covers most the lithologies de_ned in the Streckeisen diagram, with higher concentrations in the fields of granite, granodiorite, and tonalite. In the group of metasedimentary rocks (166 samples), it were sampled representative lithologies, usually of low to medium metamorphic grade. We treat the problem of reproducing the measured values of rock conductivity as an inverse problem where, besides the conductivity measurements, the volume fractions of the constituent minerals are known and the effective conductivities of the constituent minerals and model parameters are unknown. The key idea was to identify the model (and its associated estimates of effective mineral conductivities and parameters) that better reproduces the measures of rock conductivity. We evaluate the model performances by the quantity that is equal to the percentage of number of rock samples which estimated conductivities honor the measured conductivities within the tolerance of 15%. In general, for all models, the performances were quite inferior for the metasedimentary rocks (34% < < 65%) as compared with the igneous and ortho-derived rocks (51% < < 70%). For igneous and ortho-derived rocks, all model performances were very similar ( = 70%), except the GM-model that presented a poor performance (51% < < 65%); the KE and HS-models ( = 70%) were slightly superior than the CM and MW-models ( = 67%). The quartz content is the dominant factor in explaining the rock conductivity for igneous and ortho-derived rocks; in particular, using the MW-model the solution is in practice vi UFRN/CCET Dissertao de mestrado the series association of the quartz content. On the other hand, for metasedimentary rocks, model performances were different and the performance of the KEmodel ( = 65%) was quite superior than the HS ( = 53%), CM (34% < < 42%), MW ( = 40%), and GM (35% < < 42%). The estimated effective mineral conductivities are stable for perturbations both in the rock conductivity measures and in the quartz volume fraction. The fact that the metasedimentary rocks are richer in platy-minerals explains partially the poor model performances, because both the high thermal anisotropy of biotite (one of the most common platy-mineral) and the difficulty in obtaining polished surfaces for measurement coupling when platyminerals are present. Independently of the rock type, both very low and very high values of rock conductivities are hardly explained by rock models based just on rock mineral content.
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal and interannual variability and calculate the trends of wind speed in NEB and then validate the mesoscale numerical model for after engage with the microscale numerical model in order to get the wind resource at some locations in the NEB. For this we use two data sets of wind speed (weather stations and anemometric towers) and two dynamic models; one of mesoscale and another of microscale. We use statistical tools to evaluate and validate the data obtained. The simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model were made using data assimilation methods (Newtonian Relaxation and Kalman filter). The main results show: (i) Five homogeneous groups of wind speed in the NEB with higher values in winter and spring and with lower in summer and fall; (ii) The interannual variability of the wind speed in some groups stood out with higher values; (iii) The large-scale circulation modified by the El Nio and La Nia intensified wind speed for the groups with higher values; (iv) The trend analysis showed more significant negative values for G3, G4 and G5 in all seasons and in the annual average; (v) The performance of dynamic mesoscale model showed smaller errors in the locations Paracuru and So Joo and major errors were observed in Triunfo; (vi) Application of the Kalman filter significantly reduce the systematic errors shown in the simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model; (vii) The wind resource indicate that Paracuru and Triunfo are favorable areas for the generation of energy, and the coupling technique after validation showed better results for Paracuru. We conclude that the objective was achieved, making it possible to identify trends in homogeneous groups of wind behavior, and to evaluate the quality of both simulations with the dynamic model of mesoscale and microscale to answer questions as necessary before planning research projects in Wind-Energy area in the NEB
Resumo:
National surveys are important tools for public health surveillance and thus key elements in monitoring health conditions and system performance. In the field of oral health, such surveys began with the oral health survey in 1986 and later in 1996 and with the SBBrasil Project in 2003. The 2010 edition of SBBrasil is the principal oral health surveillance strategy for the production of primary data. In order to contribute to this discussion, this article proposes: (a) to present and discuss the Brazilian experience with nationwide oral health surveys and (b) to discuss the use of data in health surveillance models. One can conclude that oral health surveys in Brazil have great possibilities as a tool for health services and academia. Such surveys have shown evident potential for verifying trends in the oral health profile, as well as for producing valid indicators for use in health services.
Resumo:
Chronic Hepatitis C is the leading cause of chronic liver disease in advanced final stage of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and of death related to liver disease. Evolves progressively in time 20-30 years. Evolutionary rates vary depending on factors virus, host and behavior. This study evaluated the impact of hepatitis C on the lives of patients treated at a referral service in Hepatology of the University Hospital Onofre Lopes - Liver Study Group - from May 1995 to December 2013. A retrospective evaluation was performed on 10,304 records, in order to build a cohort of patients with hepatitis C, in which all individuals had their diagnosis confirmed by gold standard molecular biological test. Data were obtained directly from patient charts and recorded in an Excel spreadsheet, previously built, following an elaborate encoding with the study variables, which constitute individual data and prognostic factors defined in the literature in the progression of chronic hepatitis C. The Research Ethics Committee approved the project. The results were statistically analyzed with the Chi-square test and Fisher's exact used to verify the association between variable for the multivariate analysis, we used the Binomial Logistic regression method. For both tests, it was assumed significance p < 0.05 and 95%. The results showed that the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in NEF was 4.96 %. The prevalence of cirrhosis due to hepatitis C was 13.7%. The prevalence of diabetes in patients with Hepatitis C was 8.78 % and diabetes in cirrhotic patients with hepatitis C 38.0 %. The prevalence of HCC was 5.45%. The clinical follow-up discontinuation rates were 67.5 %. The mortality in confirmed cases without cirrhosis was 4.10% and 32.1% in cirrhotic patients. The factors associated with the development of cirrhosis were genotype 1 (p = 0.0015) and bilirubin > 1.3 mg % (p = 0.0017). Factors associated with mortality were age over 35 years, abandon treatment, diabetes, insulin use, AST> 60 IU, ALT> 60 IU, high total bilirubin, extended TAP, INR high, low albumin, treatment withdrawal, cirrhosis and hepatocarcinoma. The occurrence of diabetes mellitus increased mortality of patients with hepatitis C in 6 times. Variables associated with the diagnosis of cirrhosis by us were blood donor (odds ratio 0.24, p = 0.044) and professional athlete (odds ratio 0.18, p = 0.35). It is reasonable to consider a revaluation in screening models for CHC currently proposed. The condition of cirrhosis and diabetes modifies the clinical course of patients with chronical hepatitis C, making it a disease more mortality. However, being a blood donor or professional athlete is a protective factor that reduces the risk of cirrhosis, independent of alcohol consumption. Public policies to better efficient access, hosting and resolution are needed for this population.
Resumo:
This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.
Resumo:
Globalization and technological changes that has happened since the 80s have brought remarkable changes in the industrial and commercial paradigm, which are expressed mainly in the international fragmentation of production and in the formation of Global Value Chains (GVC). This thesis sought to understand such phenomena and discuss new relevant variables in this context for a more accurate analysis of the current trade patterns not addressed by the seminal economic theories that relate trade and economic growth. It sought to evaluate how the trade specialization pattern of Brazil evolved compared to other economies (China, India, Russia, United States, Japan and selected Latin American economies) in the light of these phenomena from 1995 to 2011. Therefore, we have used the methodology of gross exports decomposition in value added measures, developed by Koopman et al. (2014), and indicators estimated from data of two global matrices I-O: a WIOT (2013) and the TiVA (2015). It was also tested two hypotheses regarding the role of these phenomena as determinants of economic growth in recent years: 1) fragmentation and participation in GVC ensure higher growth rates for countries; 2) the place (stage) in which the country finds itself in GVC associated with sectoral technological aspects is also important for economic growth. For this, we used dynamic panel models (Difference GMM and System GMM) for a sample of 40 countries from 2003 to 2011. The studies carried out on Brazil show that the country is no longer on the margins of these phenomena, because it shows increasing rates of participation in GVC, including in sectors considered most strategic for fragmentation. However, there is not a standard convergence of trade specialization of the country to those presented by developed countries or movements earned by China and Mexico in terms of their position and profile of participating in GVC. Another important result obtained by the thesis is the identification of these phenomena are in fact new variables relevant for economic growth, because it shows empirical evidences to support the hypothesis 1 and, partially, the hypothesis 2. A joint analysis of the estimated econometric results with the results of the descriptive analysis of the Brazilian economy, it leads us to conclude that the trade specialization pattern of the country in the context of the new trade setups is presented unfavorably to its growth strategy.
Resumo:
Os modelos climticos globais so considerados a melhor ferramenta para gerar cenrios provveis de alteraes climticas futuras, apesar das incertezas. As projees so diferentes para cada regio e variam ao longo das estaes do ano. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a similaridade entre projees dos modelos climticos globais do IPCC-AR4 para temperatura mdia na regio Sudeste do Brasil, no perodo de 2071 a 2100, cenrio A2. Para tanto, foram realizadas anlise de componentes principais e anlise de agrupamento hierrquico para agrupar os modelos de comportamentos semelhantes. Adotando-se quatro grupos de modelos, os valores mdios de temperatura variaram de 23,7C a 25,4C.
Resumo:
O Nordeste a regio brasileira mais vulnervel ao aquecimento global. Os modelos climticos globais so a melhor ferramenta para projetar cenrios provveis de alteraes climticas para o futuro, apesar da incerteza envolvida. O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizada uma avaliao da tendncia da temperatura mdia nos cenrios futuros previstos pelos modelos climticos globais do IPCC para regio Nordeste do Brasil. Foi realizada uma anlise estatstica bsica dos dados de comparao entre os modelos. Foi possvel agrupar os modelos em 5 grupos, desde modelos estimando temperaturas mdias comparativamente inferiores em todos os meses a outros com valores superiores em todos os meses.
Resumo:
Dissertao (mestrado)Universidade de Braslia, Faculdade de Economia, Administrao e Contabilidade, Departamento de Economia, Programa de Ps-Graduao em Economia, 2016.
Resumo:
O IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanas Climticas) disponibiliza cenrios de clima do futuro de modelos climticos globais provenientes de diferentes instituies de pesquisa do mundo. Este trabalho teve como objetivo propor metodologia em SIG (Sistema de nformaes Geogrficas) para avaliar o cenrio de mudanas climticas no Brasil utilizando modelos do IPCC-AR4 para as variveis temperatura mdia, mxima e mnima.Os dados georreferenciados do AR4 foram manipulados utilizando SIG Idrisi 32. Foram obtidos os mapas climticos referentes mdia de modelos selecionados para o ano de 2080 dos cenrios A (pessimista) e B (otimista). A anlise foi realizada comparando os mapas do AR4 e os mapas do TAR, apresentando amplitudes entre -4C e 4C para temperatura mdia, 8C a 8C para temperatura mxima e 6C e 4C para temperatura mnima, considerando as variaes ao longo dos meses do ano e da distribuio espacial no Pas.
Resumo:
Consultoria Legislativa - rea XI - Meio Ambiente e Direito Ambiental, Organizao Territorial, Desenvolvimento Urbano e Regional.
Resumo:
Consultoria Legislativa - rea VII - Sistema Financeiro, Direito Comercial, Econmico e Defesa do Consumidor.
